In Guangdong, officials responsible for the coronavirus response announced Feb. 25 that 14% of declared recoveries in the province had later retested positive.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-13/china-japan-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive?fbclid=IwAR3fylxOVWwo6aUEJsW2L0qygbONET1kufnGyF2AIhWeLUcUfI1eOywSNec

Herd immunity might not be a thing ...

In Guangdong, officials responsible for the coronavirus response announced Feb. 25 that 14% of declared recoveries in the province had later retested positive.

Herd immunity might not be a thing ... — unenlightened

Though I agree with your basic point that herd immunity may not be a thing, the numbers could represents a few scenarios.

A large part of this is explained by false negatives as well as well as a cycle of "intense - less-intense - intense" infection Coronaviurs seem sot exhibit.

So, if recovering means the virus sort of oscillates up and down on the way to zero like a bouncy ball, then you can be recovered, test negative, then the virus flares up a bit and if you're tested then you test positive. In a small amount of patients the "flareup" will develop back into severe disease. This is completely different than overcoming the virus and catching it again.

Even if it is true re-infection, as long as most people develop immunity, then it's not a big problem in terms of her immunity. It's not good of course but not terrible.

What would be terrible is if this is indication that nearly everyone loses immunity over a fairly short period of time, and that this 14% only represent the first part of a Gaussian curve leading to when the majority lose immunity.

What would also be terrible, even if immunity to this strain is usually long lasting, that this is indication that immunity is fragile and that a mutated version of the virus can defeat most people's immunity who got the previous strain, as we see with the flu. It's thought that we are lucky with this virus in that it does not mutate quickly. Unfortunately, mutation is not with respect to time but "total viruses" replicating in people's bodies at anyone time as well as co-infection in a person that has another virus with potentially useful genetic tricks to exchange. A pandemic maximizes both these cause of mutation.

Another reason why the "need to let a few people die for the economy, those planes need to fly like the dickens!" was an erroneous calculation. To make such a risk-benefit calculation (even the goal is just the economy and we are willing to let however many people die to achieve increasing the stock market again) requires information, such as answers to the above, which we currently don't have.

And you’re right that we should get that support. It remains to be seen if we will. Shockingly, even Republicans seem to be considering a temporary Universal Basic Income as a possible solution

Yes in the UK there is talk of universal income. It will be the easiest way to help people, as it is becoming evident that what ever funding methods that are proposed, many people fall through the net.
It is equally shocking here as the party in government and their base tend to be the privileged and hard working, who look down on the poor and disadvantaged (while actively making them disadvantaged).

A steroid would diminish immune function. But ibuprofen? That's wacky.
— frank

It's not completely wacky. Ibuprofen is an anti-inflammatory, and inflammation is an immune response. — unenlightened

True. It's just surprising.

The centre is the worst place to be. Pick a damn side!

The centre is the worst place to be. Pick a damn side — Michael

Centre isn't a word.

Centre isn't a word. — Hanover

But "centre" is. Don't let Banno chastise you for getting the use-mention distinction wrong.

To put this in perspective, two million people die yearly from flu like-related illnesses worldwide. The Spanish flu had the advantage in 1918 because of the weather then, and also that there had just been a 4 year world war and everyones' immune systems were weak from FOUR YEARS of high stress. So fifty million died. We have lots of vaccines and medicines in our arsenal now and it is only growing.

"To speed things up, scientists are turning to untested classes of vaccines, and RETHINKING every part of how they are designed, evaluated and manufactured. If the approach works, we will, for the first time, have identified a new disease and developed a vaccine against it while the initial outbreak is still ongoing." (emphasis mine, newscientist dot com)

Other teams are working on understanding how the virus affects the body, so maybe new drugs will be able to stop the life-threatening aspect of the illness. Like help your breathing and stuff

In the UK schools are closed now until further notice, as the government faces a rapid increase in infection, ove the next two weeks. These will be people who were infected prior to the social isolation measures introduced earlier in the week, who will develop symptoms following a few days of incubation.
Apparently London is a hotspot. The problem in London is that there are many people who either can't work at home, or can't afford to stop work, as they survive hand to mouth. This morning the tube( metro) was packed full of commuters, even during the social isolation measures. I suspect that the virus is spreading widely across London right now and there are still a lot of people still moving around to keep working.
Also health workers are not being tested, or not being provided with sufficient safety equipment. There are many health workers self isolating for 14 days, with some symptoms, but are not being tested.

This is not a very deadly disease. Restaurants that are closed need to save their food and give to or create food banks. As long as we got food and water, we cool. Think of the cavemen

Speaking in bold will not make your comments any more intelligent. Please stop it.

intelligible. ok

I'm pretty sure he meant intelligent.

Then he is scared

In general this pandemic has given me a big rush. I'm only feeling empathy in a few situations. A lot of people are acting like idiots

Glad you're enjoying it. Who knows? Maybe we'll get another outbreak of the black death next. That would be wild :cheer:

Fear is a sin: http://www.godrules.net/library/aquinas/278aquinas_e1.htm

I've just watched the BBC documentary on Dominic Cummings. He must feel like the most unlucky person in British politics, just as he managed to get into Downing St, the greatest national crisis since the Second World War happened within a few weeks. Sucking all his hard won power away, leaving him in the middle of a national scramble to a war footing in which political advisors have become irrelevant and the grown ups have taken the healm. Johnson likewise has lost control and must rely on the group of specialists and grown ups who actually run things. Be careful what you wish for Boris, Churchill is your idol, your hero, now you have been unceremoniously thrust into his shoes and you will have to deliver that level of leadership, or if you fail, you will be finished.

Herd immunity might not be a thing ... — unenlightened

Might be worse than thought. Or it have already mutated.

Another example from last month:

(27.2.2020) People who have gotten the new coronavirus and recovered can get it again in the future, health authorities say — the body does not become immune after infection.

On Wednesday, Japanese authorities reported the first confirmed case of reinfection. A tour guide in Osaka first tested positive for the coronavirus in late January, then was discharged from the hospital three weeks ago after showing signs of recovery. But she returned to the hospital after developing a sore throat and chest pain and tested positive for the coronavirus once again.

Whether we admit it or not, we permit a certain number of deaths in order to maintain a certain why of life, which includes allowing our economy to operate the way it does. The worst case scenarios in the US if we were to allow the virus free reign would be between 200,000 and 1.7 million deaths. The estimate should make clear they simply don't know, since there's such a large range. But, let us assume we should expect 1,000,000 deaths, then that would put us at 250,000 less deaths than than the 1.25 million annual car accident deaths we deal with annually. We really have to keep these things in perspective here before we allow the entire world's economy to collapse.

My proposal is not just to let nature take it's course, but instead to invest the trillions we intend to to prop up the economy on ventilators, hospital beds, and better treatment in an effort to drive down the deaths from the infections, as opposed to the futile battle to control the infection rate, which will just further damage all sorts of lives in the process.

I have not seen any data that would have ever led me to the response I see now, but what I instead see is an illness that is mild in the vast (>90%) number of cases and is fatal only among the already very compromised. The cure we've arrived at, to the extent it at all represents a cure, is far worse than the disease.

I've just watched the BBC documentary on Dominic Cummings. — Punshhh

Makes a change from reading about the pestilential virus threatening civilised life. He's a completely different shape and size. :wink:

No, I just had a crown put on one of my teeth and my dental insurance doesn't pay for shit. I want the money.

I have not seen any data that would have ever led me to the response I see now, but what I instead see is an illness that is mild in the vast (>90%) number of cases and is fatal only among the already very compromised. The cure we've arrived at, to the extent it at all represents a cure, is far worse than the disease.

That’s my feeling as well. The fear—mostly our collective absence from the economy, but possibly the implementation of a police state—might have worse ramifications than a pandemic. We’ve been through pandemics before, but we have hardly seen a world-wide lockdown of this magnitude. This event is setting the precedent with which future governments will justify seeking more power for them at the expense of less freedoms for us.

Whether we admit it or not, we permit a certain number of deaths in order to maintain a certain why of life, which includes allowing our economy to operate the way it does. The worst case scenarios in the US if we were to allow the virus free reign would be between 200,000 and 1.7 million deaths. The estimate should make clear they simply don't know, since there's such a large range. But, let us assume we should expect 1,000,000 deaths, then that would put us at 250,000 less deaths than than the 1.25 million annual car accident deaths we deal with annually. We really have to keep these things in perspective here before we allow the entire world's economy to collapse. — Hanover

It's not just a numbers game though. Our societies operate on certain principles. We accept the deaths caused by car incidents not just because the benefits of allowing personal car use outweigh the deaths in general, but also because driving despite the risk is an individual decision and accidents can often be blamed on individual failures.

The virus is different. There is far less individual control over exposure, especially in the absence of central rules and guidelines. There is also no way to assign individual blame. What we're left with is a situation where government officials are forced to assume responsibility for the life and death of citizens.

The virus is different. There is far less individual control over exposure, especially in the absence of central rules and guidelines. — Echarmion

You can quarantine yourself if you want. Just like you can stay off the road to protect yourself from a car accident, you can stay in home to protect yourself from coronavirus.

No, I just had a crown put on one of my teeth and my dental insurance doesn't pay for shit. I want the money. — frank

I'm not sure why we're talking about your dental care, but now that we are, do you remember to floss daily? I'm guessing you don't.

I'm not sure why we're talking about your dental care, but now that we are, do you remember to floss daily? I'm guessing you don't. — Hanover

I use those little floss on a stick things. I don't like getting my twinkies contaminated. It's not that the government cares about me. They're worried about this, and that's why I'ma get that money.

You can quarantine yourself if you want. Just like you can stay off the road to protect yourself from a car accident, you can stay in home to protect yourself from coronavirus. — Hanover

Sure. But my employer would hardly let me, would they? If some children go to school, and others do not, how would classes be handled?

Trump just announced that the FDA approved chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine to treat the Chinese flu. The drug is usually used to treat malaria.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0