I have read your response and I will leave your words to justify your intention. — ArguingWAristotleTiff
It was uncalled for and unappreciated. — ArguingWAristotleTiff
275 US deaths from coronavirus.
Current % of US cases of coronavirus considered severe: 0. — Hanover
that currently there are no severe cases because the severe cases died and no new ones have developed to severe yet or then data hasn't been updated yet? — boethius
That doubling something many times results in very big numbers. — boethius
Iceland health authorities and deCode Genetics have undertaken comprehensive screening for the virus that causes COVID-19 among the Icelandic population. The testing by deCode Genetics started Friday 13 March and the results of the first 5 490 diagnosed tests have yielded 47 positive samples.
To date a total of 3 699 samples have been diagnosed by the healthcare system. The healthcare system's testing has yielded 362 results indicating infection. About a third (36.4%) of cases can be traced to overseas travel, mostly to high-risk areas identified in the European Alps. More than a quarter (27.9%) of cases have been traced to domestic transmission. The rest (35.7%) have not been conclusively traced to a source of transmission.
Current efforts to estimate the prevalence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus within the general, largely non-symptomatic, non-quarantined, population in conjunctions with very expansive testing already performed on those who were symptomatic or were for other reasons considered to be at-risk for having contracted the virus, have resulted in a total of 9 189 individuals in Iceland being tested out of a population of 364 thousand. In terms of tests per one million inhabitants, Iceland has now tested 25 244, which is the highest proportion we are aware of in the world.
This leads to a higher confidence in our efforts to contain the spread of the COVID-19 disease in the country. The combined efforts also provide a very valuable insight into the spread of the virus. In the coming days more results from testing in the general population will continue to elicit a much clearer picture of the actual spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Iceland.
Your math is wrong. The spread is exponential, not the death rate. The spread doesn't discriminate. The death rate does, based upon current medical condition. — Hanover
There is a food crisis in the UK today, the PM announced yesterday that all pubs, restaurants, cafes, etc must close Friday night. Also the schools closed the same day, resulting in panic buying. — Punshhh
UK will do the same as ssu reports Finland is doing. These "changes in strategy" is simply propaganda to walk from "oh, crap, it is a problem I should have realized will hurt the stock market much more by downplaying it compared to being proactive" to the inevitable position of "all hands on deck! to prevent more spread and get this under control! for queen and country lads!" without admitting to any mistakes and pretending it was "people's loved ones" that were the center most priority all along, just a few understandable course corrections along the way — boethius
Surely that would cost less than are futile efforts to contain an airborne virus. — Hanover
To me that looks like it'll peak before 100,000 cases. Scale up to America and they should slow down and peak before 1 million (I'm guessing in a couple of months) presuming increasingly strict measures (short of "hammer"-like moves, which still seem unlikely on a national level). — Baden
Just as predictably, the real world outcome of this "PR delay" is to make the situation that much worse. — boethius
The death rate is some percentage of the infection rate, without discrimination, not detached from it, for one part. Medical conditions, the discriminatory part, get worse as the system overloads, increasing the death rate. — boethius
To me that looks like it'll peak before 100,000 cases.
We were discussing the situation in the UK, not the US.That is just your TDS speaking here. Trumps initial over-optimistic public statements were bad PR, but at the same time he acted fast and correctly. There is nothing concrete to critiziise here, you are just parrotting the Trump-hating "mainstream" media.
Nobody knows when a treatment or vaccine will become available. If it does happen very soon, yes, it will change things and you can then work that into the maths. You can't work it in when it doesn't exist. — Baden
We were discussing the situation in the UK, not the US.
Get a grip. — Punshhh
The growth of coronavirus isn't exponential in Italy. The acceleration of the number of new positive cases has steadily been declining since the quarantines were imposed in Italy, and has now levelled off to around 0. — fdrake
All of this drop in rate of new cases can't be attributed to the quarantine measures; people would have probably isolated themselves regardless. But the effect of cutting off as many transmission vectors as possible should not be underestimated. — fdrake
date Diagnosed Deaths
2020-03-14-----------21,157(+20%)-----------1,441(+175 +14%)
2020-03-15-----------24,747(+17%)-----------1,809(+368 +26%)
2020-03-16-----------27,980(+13%)-----------2,158(+349 +19%)
2020-03-17-----------31,506(+13%)-----------2,503(+345 +16%)
2020-03-18-----------35,713(+13%)-----------2,978(+475 +19%)
2020-03-19-----------41,035(+15%)-----------3,405(+427 +14%)
2020-03-20-----------47,021(+15%)-----------4,032(+627 +18%)
2020-03-21-----------53,578(+14%)-----------4,825(+793 +20%) — wikipedia - coronavirus pandemic in Italy
Martial law is the imposition of direct military control of normal civilian functions by a government, especially in response to a temporary emergency such as invasion or major disaster, or in an occupied territory. — Wikipedia - Marshal Law
Although this week has reduced the growth rate compared to the week previous which was consistently above 20%, this could represent a new growth rate that would be sustained until the critical 60-70% of the population is infected. — boethius
This is still exponential, in a local region of time, just that the doubling time is getting steadily longer according to official diagnosis[/]. — boethius
There was an uptick in growth today and yesterday in Italy, it doesn't swamp the downward trend in new case number acceleration when averaging. — fdrake
What has happened: number of new cases per day's rate of increase has been trending toward 0. You simply don't get that behaviour from an exponential function applied to the entire case number trajectory. — fdrake
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