Trump knows that telling a lie or something crazy (like 100 000 dead is a good job) works. — ssu

The epidemologist experts are predicting 200,000. I would say half of that is a good job. What number would you, in your apparent infinite wisdom, call a good job?

We know the CCP suppressed and coerced its own doctors in the typical bureaucratic form of Communist parties throughout history, but now US intelligence is saying they are faking their numbers, which could prove disastrous.

China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.

The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret, and they declined to detail its contents. But the thrust, they said, is that China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.

China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says

The epidemologist experts are predicting 200,000. I would say half of that is a good job. What number would you, in your apparent infinite wisdom, call a good job? — Nobeernolife

It's a good prediction...if you still have some states open and without a serious lock-down as you already have lost the containment phase and aren't prepared for it. Something equivalent to other OECD countries would be good.

Italy has now 218 deaths per million. South Korea 3 per million. Now the US is at 14 per million. Now to have the similar death rate as Italy now would mean 71 940 deaths. So that will give you roughly the ball park where 100 000 deaths is.

By looking at other countries that had their eye on the ball. 20,000 is still generous.

By looking at other countries that had their eye on the ball. 20,000 is still generous. — Benkei

Like which countries? And why is 20,000 "still generous", when then normal flue is about 50,000? Where do you get that figure from, anyway?

Thanks :up:

You might be interested in this, frank. I think we discussed South Korea before. — Baden

Sunshine,

I actually listened to the first part of that video, and he made a really interesting point, which was that masks work and that a critical difference between the West's response and the East's response (and their clearly different results) was that the East wore masks. What this means is that the answer is as much in mass producing masks as it is in all the other much more difficult things we're doing. The doctor felt the reason masks were not being touted as effective was because there was a shortage for doctors and they didn't want average citizens to wear one, which prompted his next comment of why would doctors need them if they were ineffective.

You would think that at least one European nation would have tried the mask idea.

I found this mask online that I'm now wearing. I feel like it provides just the perfect mix of protection and sass.

Fix the problem, not the blame. Is that a Japanese saying? Somebody told me it was...

That data is available on worldometers.info . Have fun figuring out the obvious.

Also, why Trump is a cunt. Here he is on March 15:

“This is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something we have tremendous control of.”

March 7: Trump isn't concerned at all. Which is why he doesn't do anything.

March 6: he lies about the fact not enough tests are available.

March 2: "We'll have vaccines soon." Fauci same day : no we won't.

So that's well into March.

But the winning comment on February 27:

It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear. And from our shores, we — you know, it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. Well see what happens. Nobody really knows.

So really, what foresight are you on about, Trumpanzee?

And why do you call Trump a cunt for having actually more foresight that his political rivals, who downplayed the Corona threat well into February? — Nobeernolife

We know the CCP suppressed and coerced its own doctors in the typical bureaucratic form of Communist parties throughout history, but now US intelligence is saying they are faking their numbers, which could prove disastrous. — NOS4A2

Well, you have those travel bans, right? Even for China it may be difficult to hide hundred thousand deaths (hundreds or thousands, yes). Actually Trump's great fan, the Brazilian president Bolsonaro is quite open about that he simply doesn't like the numbers either (as the Chinese).

From Brazil:

Bolsonaro said that in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazi's economic powerhouse, the death toll seemed “too large.” Sao Paulo has the most cases and deaths so far of coronavirus in Brazil, at 1,223 cases and 68 deaths. “We need to look at what is happening there, this cannot be a numbers game to favor political interests,” Bolsonaro said.

Italy has now 218 deaths per million. South Korea 3 per million. Now the US is at 14 per million. Now to have the similar death rate as Italy now would mean 71 940 deaths. So that will give you roughly the ball park where 100 000 deaths is. — ssu

Well, you would have to take that up with the epidemologists who came up with the 200.000 figure. I am pretty sure Trump did not do the math himself.
About the extreme numbers in Italy, you should also consider other factors, such as the way deaths are counted. In Italy, every death is counted as "Corona", if the virus was ALSO present. In countries like Germany (and I am sure Korea), co-morbidity is considered.
Statistics can be quite misleading

Bolsonara is an even bigger cunt than Trump. Quite the achievement.

Sweden is an interesting case as they have avoided going full authoritarian and is instead banking on the personal responsibility idea. In due time we’ll see how this approach has fared in comparison to the lockdowns and police-states of their neighbors.

Sweden Defies Lockdown Trend

I give it until this weekend. Sweden has some of the least hospital beds per capita so they will run up against the limits of their health care capacity quickly. Also a lock down isn't a lock down isn't a lock down.

What do you think a lock down is?

So really, what foresight are you on about, Trumpanzee? — Benkei

No name-calling, eh?

The foresight I was referring to was quickly stopping flights from China in February, for which he was heavily criticized by such wonderful foresighted experts like Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden.

Is he perfect? No. Is he better than the current alternatives? You bet.

which was that masks work and that a critical difference between the West's response and the East's response (and their clearly different results) was that the East wore masks. — Hanover

Yes, absolutely. It's predominantly spread in droplets, so it's nuts that we all haven't been wearing masks from the beginning. Interesting also the comment about eyes. A huge percentage of East Asians wear glasses and that provides a barrier from absorption through the eyes. Glasses and masks. Get a pair of goggles to go with your fancy get-up there. Again, if we had done that from the beginning in conjunction with a short lockdown, we might not all be in the shit now.

When the virus is already in the country and spreading, stopping flights is not of much use. That horse has bolted. Sounds good to the xenophobes, of course. But one look at New York will tell you how relatively pointless it was.

You're confusing different threads. But you are a little cute Trumpanzee. How Trump's flight ban wasn't going to be effective has already been dealt with ages ago. If you don't do contact tracing of US citizens when they arrive from hot spots, the travel ban is meaningless.

It also, in no way or form, would've excused him from not implementing social distancing much earlier, even if he would've implemented the travel ban in a sensible manner.

To put it clearly for you, if I'd save someone from drowning, that action doesn't excuse me from murdering someone else.

Well, you would have to take that up with the epidemologists who came up with the 200.000 figure. I am pretty sure Trump did not do the math himself. — Nobeernolife

The pandemic in Italy isn't contained yet. So there is that issue as now it's just really starting in the US

If we assume that South Korea has beat the first wave of the pandemic (and trust South Korean stats), their turning of the tide happened when they hit 5100 infections. Now they are at nearing 10 000 cases in all. So I guess at the peak very roughly half of the infections have happened. So there comes the 200 000 figure.

So the way I interpret it is that the epidemiologists think the US is going the way as Italy.

Sweden is an interesting case as they have avoided going full authoritarian and is instead banking on personal responsibility idea. In due time we’ll see how this approach has faired in comparison to the lockdowns and police-states of their neighbors. — NOS4A2

I've mentioned it few times on the thread. It will surely be interesting to see as this will be something that experts will be looking at later.

I think sooner or later prime minister Stefan Löfven will crumble under the pressure if the death toll starts rising too much compared Denmark, Finland and Norway. Btw there's here a serious row here about workers going cross the Northern Swedish-Finnish border to work even if the country ought to have closed it's borders. Sweden wouldn't like if all those Finnish health care workers wouldn't come to work there. For us it seems that the close-borders-lock-down isn't as air tight. So I guess we can have it here as bad as everywhere else.

I hope you’re wrong for the obvious reasons.

The “lockdown” metaphor is used to describe the strict nation-wide measures to implement social distancing, like locking up prisoners in their cell.

Where I am, we were running out of masks for hospital workers before it even hit us. I assume they were diverted to NYC.

A friend of mine works at a hospital where they wear one N-95 mask all day long. On top if that, they put on a different surgical mask for each patient.

We're going to start doing that at my hospital.

So 1) arrogance isn't why the general population didnt start wearing them sooner, we didnt have enough, and 2) would masks really help outside of really overcrowded areas like SK?

It's high transmissability might be related to its long life on inanimate objects. We'll know after more research, I guess.

You're a tool.

Wow, Trump did a proper press briefing yesterday. Truth is out there. Trolls fall in line now.



I don't think it was arrogance. We weren't given good advice and, yes, there weren't enough masks to go around. We weren't prepared and we were let down.

Yep.

That's very vague. There are a lot of differences per county. Sweden prohibits gatherings over 50 people and closed schools, except for primary schools.

The Netherlands hadn't prohibited gatherings but prohibits any event for which a license is required, regardless of size. Outside people should keep 1.5 meters distance but theoretically a lot more than 50 people can be in one place, like the beach or a park. All are schools are closed though, as are the cafés and bars.

So which lock down is stricter?

It's high transmissability might be related to its long life on inanimate objects. We'll know after more research, I guess.

Yes, this occurred to me, it can apparently last up to 72 hours on a hard surface. I also think it is very sticky like it's covered in Velcro. So if it gets onto door handles, hand rails and key pads which large numbers of people touch regularly. It will spread far and wide rapidly.

At the local hospital they disinfect masks with UV light if they're still dry to make sure they don't run out.

My neighbour build a CPAP with this: https://contents.mediadecathlon.com/p1576986/k$8b56c4956b2622eaaabe33999f2d1229/sq/Snorkelmasker+Easybreath+marineblauw.webp?f=550x550

The thing with masks is that you need the right one for the right purpose. Any fool who has worked around dusts, paint, chemicals, bio-agents & etc., knows all this already. And it is not the case that any mask is better than no mask. There may be a marginal benefit, but that outweighed by all the other considerations. If you don't have the right mask, best to leave immediately.

That might be why it's been so hard to contain. Plus, since we let people go out to get food, positive people are spreading it everywhere they go. Easing up on the lockdown is going going to be hard.


We're recycling masks now. I think the reason we're switching to keeping the masks on is that taking them to the recycling bin is just one more way to spread it.

Cool about the mask. Hope he helps someone with it. We have one mask of that kind for BiPAP, but we haven't used it. I think the danger of spewing the virus everywhere would be high even with it being filtered like that. Just based on my experience with CPAP and BiPAP.

I’m not aware of the extent of the measures in place in either country. Can you get fined in the Netherlands for disobeying any public health order?