↪ssu There is certainly a degree of hysteria. Such is the internet!

It’s a serious condition though, and not to be take lightly. I think lockdown policies for some countries could be far more damaging than letting the virus do its thing - see above.

What bothers me is how developing countries are attempting to react like other developed nations when they quite clearly don’t have the economic clout to do so and run the horrible risk of taking on two terrible paths at once instead of one. — I like sushi

Panic is the appropriate and rational response when you discover a fire is tearing through your neighborhood.

COVID-19 is that fire and it is in your neighborhood. The only difference is that the devastating effects of infection are not realized for two weeks (from date of infection to symptoms requiring hospitalization), after which many more people have become infected.

But just as the virus grows rapidly, so it can be killed off rapidly. That is done by eliminating all paths of infection and waiting a few weeks (the infectious period).

That is the action that all countries must take, and sooner is overwhelmingly better than later.

In concrete terms:
1. Isolate COVID-19 individuals and the people they touched
2. Identify and isolate individuals with symptoms (colds, etc.)
3. Reduce social connectivity (social distancing, masks, hygiene, etc.)
4. Stop transportation and contact between geographical groups (close borders, prevent domestic travel, etc.)

The best thing that developed countries can do to help developing countries is to make that message absolutely clear by actioning it themselves and providing an example for them to follow.

Here's the mathematics that undergirds that message.

The choice between stopping the virus or protecting the economy is a false choice. If the virus is not stopped, then health systems will be overwhelmed, the dead bodies will pile up, and economies will be devastated anyway.

But just as the virus grows rapidly, so it can be killed off rapidly. That is done by eliminating all paths of infection and waiting a few weeks (the infectious period). — Andrew M

I dont think that's going to happen. China came down off lockdown and went right back on. I think it has multiple options for transmission.

but now US intelligence is saying they are faking their numbers — NOS4A2

Of course they faked them. We didn't need an intelligence agency to tell us that.

Sweden has some of the least hospital beds per capita so they will run up against the limits of their health care capacity quickly. — Benkei

Of the 88 homes for the elderly and nursing homes in the Stockholm area at least every third has corona infections. :mask: (article in Swedish)

So I guess NOS4A2 shouldn't get his hopes up that Sweden will be an exemplary model on how to deal with the corona-virus without lockdowns and other "police-state measures".

It's hard to imagine the cognitive dissonance at work when people actually think that a projection of 100,000 deaths is 'good job'. What an incredible, utterly heinous fuck up. A CV related death nearly every ten minutes in NY, being generous. For once I actually feel somewhat sorry for Americans. What a fucking tragedy. I hope you decapitate all your leaders, including and especially your head of state.

I am entering my sixth decade of life. For me, this pandemic is the most existing event of my life. I have been in the biosciences so long, it now feels like I have arrived. Like a political scientist in the middle of a revolution bloody revolution I take notes in wide eyed excitement.
Question: Given the human toll of this plague, am I a bad person for having such joy?

a projection of 100,000 deaths is 'good job' — StreetlightX

I would ask you, Would 100,000 deaths be "good" if the alternative was 100,000,000.
Also, I would agree with you that 100,000 is a fuck-up if the alternative was 100 deaths.

Not here to entertain hypotheticals, go play toy murder somewhere else.

I am sorry you feel that way. I did not intend to offend you. Would might take your alternate suggestion if I knew what it meant.
By the way, I am not an American.

The choice between stopping the virus or protecting the economy is a false choice. If the virus is not stopped, then health systems will be overwhelmed, the dead bodies will pile up, and economies will be devastated anyway. — Andrew M

For the US, yes. For less developed countries? I’m far from convinced because they lack the basic infrastructures to police this or the beds, staff and equipment to treat the waves of patients.

I have no serious concerns for developed countries other than the possibility of slow creeping authoritarianism - Hungary being the first real flash of that.

We tried without fines and people wouldn't keep their distance (we had gridlock to the beach). After that weekend they instituted fines. So you get a warning first and then a fine if you persist. Usually the 1.5 m rule. And they broke up a student party once.

Yeah, that's why he was looking for something that covered the entire face without leaking air, which regular CPAP still do. It's a snorkling mask from the local sports store. 20 euro per mask and he can fit 4 per room. Testing it this week.

And I guess it's more of a BIPAP this way?. (I'm not familiar with every piece of equipment as I don't work in health care).

You really should be entertaining hypotheticals. If there was a time it’s now.

100,000 is an extremely low figure for a country like the US whose medical system is extremely disjointed and given the freedom of movement people have.

I imagine NOS is crying out about governmental control inhibiting citizen rights? It’s good to have someone reminding us of this. For the developing world it is certainly something worth keeping an eye on - see Hungary.

Overall I think the situation looks under control at present, but we shouldn’t just let new laws and legislation creep in without questioning and combatting them to some degree. This point might grow more relevant as the strain shows over the coming months.

It's definitely an issue in some countries. Just not Sweden and the Netherlands. Heard about Hungary or course but haven't studied it at all. Maybe you have a good link for me?

I put it to you that:
1. The new rules/laws associated with the pandemic are nothing more than the expansion of what conservatives call the "nanny state."
2. The nanny state is required because of the adults who behave like small children.
3. Therefore, the new rules/laws are necessary because of the mayhem caused by egocentric unripe adults.

We tried without fines and people wouldn't keep their distance (we had gridlock to the beach). After that weekend they instituted fines. So you get a warning first and then a fine if you persist. Usually the 1.5 m rule. And they broke up a student party once.

To answer your question, it sounds like the Dutch lockdown is far more strict than the Swedish one.

3. Is, I t hink, not even about egocentrism. It's much more about abstract and personal risk and how people react to those. If you're old or have comorbidity, you run personal risk and those people tend to take precautions regardless of what the government says. If you're young the personal risk is low, and the risk you pose to others becomes abstract. You might stop seeing your own grandparents but you'll still be leaving your germs all over the place and giving it to people who do see their grandparents or where old people go as well - like shops and the like.

It's very reminiscent of the tragedy of the commons really, where certain behaviour makes sense on a personal level but it's terrible behaviour for the group as a whole.

100,000 is an extremely low figure for a country like the US whose medical system is extremely disjointed and given the freedom of movement people have. — I like sushi

It is not a low figure. In no fucking universe is 100,000 people drowning in their own lungs a low figure, and anyone who says otherwise can get fucked. This is especially the case for the richest, supposedly 'most advanced' nation on Earth, which at every step along the way has botched its response and exhibited failures of leadership that ought to be, by any rational standard, considered criminal. That the 'medical system is extremely disjointed' is not a given but a social and political failing that itself ought to be subject to extreme critique and remedy.

When the virus is already in the country and spreading, stopping flights is not of much use. That horse has bolted. Sounds good to the xenophobes, of course. But one look at New York will tell you how relatively pointless it was. — Baden

So you want to reverse the travel bans all over the world? Gee, the world-wide all governments have now turned to xenophobes, don´t they. And by implication, you`d also complain about the self-isolation orders that are popping up everywhere, as they are just a micro form of travel bans, designed to minimize contact.

It is not a low figure. In no fucking universe is 100,000 deaths a low figure — StreetlightX

Any figure that is HALF of what the experts predict is a low figure in my book.
And, for reference, what about the figure 60,000? Is that alow figure in the "fucking universe"? Because that was the death toll from your normal, standard, everyyear flue in 2018. And the China virus is obviously more lethal than the flu.

Is that alow figure in the "fucking universe"? Because that was the death toll from your normal, standard, every year flue in 2018. — Nobeernolife

No, it isn't. It's a disgrace. Like alot of other things about the US.

3. Is, I think, not even about egocentrism. — Benkei

Children generally, are noted for their egocentrism. Hence, I propose that the nanny state is aimed at an egotistical adult subset. Further, you propose that, risk perception is aligned to terrible behaviour, and continue on cleverly, to quote the tragedy of the commons as an exemplar.

Let's ask, What was the solution for the tragedy of the commons? It was "property rights, government regulation, the development of a collective action arrangement." Germain to the pandemic are the solutions of government regulation and collective action. Note that collective action can be merely social pressure not to break wind in the elevator - which works.

I do not know where I am going with all this. I feel that much of this Coronavirus thread is whining about not getting to do whatever, whenever, wherever one wants. There is a term for that. (I am not looking at you :-) )

100,000 is an extremely low figure for a country like the US whose medical system is extremely disjointed and given the freedom of movement people have.

Yes, to keep the figures this low, the whole US will need to go into lock down immediately. It looks like this is not going to happen for maybe a week or so. Once the virus has got a widespread foothold it is very difficult to prevent the spread because it becomes pervasive. This is what happened in London during the few days before the lockdown, the spread would have been exponential and infect large numbers in just a couple of days.

I see the same mistakes being made all across the US.

Nice, reminds me of New Zealand, I've done lots of tramping there.

Your area looks a bit damp for my liking.

The solution of the tragedy of the commons most certainly isn't "property rights". I suggest you read up on it again.

50,000 a year die like that in the US; the ‘most advanced’ country in the world. Admittedly, that figure tripling is no joke. Neither is 9 million people a year starving to death, but that is a much better figure than several years ago.

We’re in danger of seeing the developing world falling even further behind the rest of the world. A single country’s concerns right now isn’t my primary focus. If it’s yours, that’s great! I’m saying it should or shouldn’t be. Just explaining where my words are coming from.

Quick note that the tragedy of the commons is an economic myth and fabrication, or perhaps better, a scenario only possible under extremely abnormal and artificial circumstances.



Or for a quick read on the work on Elinor Ostrom.

The harder the lesson the better the chance of using these mistakes to stop worse things from happening.

You can guarantee governments are mostly guessing and relying on experts in the field. The end result will be the best experts in the field/s will hopefully shine through and help governments decide how best to mitigate the problem/s.

International communication is an essential part fo this as far as I can see. Luckily scientists are very much about the science more than the politics so are more likely to show no concern for political/geographical boundaries.

Note: y’know, silver linings and all that :)

I don’t think a lot of people understand that exactly the same situations in two different countries can have almost polar outcomes. This is the nature of nature. We can at least push and pull the curves around to a certain degree, but there is quite a large element of chance involved

See here (again): https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

Yeah, that's why he was looking for something that covered the entire face without leaking air, which regular CPAP still do. It's a snorkling mask from the local sports store. 20 euro per mask and he can fit 4 per room. Testing it this week. — Benkei

Cool. I just meant that inevitably, patients are going to pull it off or try to adjust it and in the process fill the air with CV laden aerosol. The aerosol hangs in the air for a couple of hours. But as long as it's in a negative pressure room, it should be ok.

For every patient whose needs are met that way, it would save a ventilator for someone else.