I did think I read what I posted but if I'm wrong so be it. I don't dive too deeply into all the claims and counterclaims. So much conflicting information and politicized spin out there.

It’s an important point. To be explicit, Fauci and his co-authors wrote this in a recent paper.

On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2 — NOS4A2

Supposing this is correct, that the fatality rate is closer to 0.1% than an average of 9, 10 or 36% does not mean it's more like 0.1% than 1% (implying less than 0.5%). The range of comparison here is completely different to the range fishfry gave.

Anyway @NOS4A2, seeing as you're a Fauci convert now, presumably you accept his estimate that even with current measures and on the low end 1-200,000 Americans will die of this disease in the coming months? And that without the lockdown 1-2 million deaths could be expected?

One has to assume that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases to get anywhere near an influenza pandemic. So it’s a big assumption, but I think a warranted one.

I’m not sure I believe that speculation, no.

I accept that, but we're not going to get to the bottom of the exact death rate for a long time. Actual deaths, on the other hand, will be a lot easier to measure and they're what ultimately matters.

So, what's your estimate then? 3-month timeline. Shoot.

So, what's your estimate then? 3-month timeline. Shoot.

I try to refrain from fortune-telling. I simply don’t know enough. Even Fauci doesn’t want to be held to his predictions.

globalism — Nobeernolife

I just want to check that this isn’t code for “the Jews”, because it often is.

Also, globalism isn’t the problem, capitalism is the problem. We could continue to have a global economy without the capitalist race to the bottom by penalizing trade partners for having substandard worker protections, thereby encouraging them to improve in that regard of else be at a disadvantage in the global economy. Of course then other countries could do the same to us, and we’d have to do better by our workers too, and the race to the bottom would be transformed into a race to the top.

But just turning American working conditions into Chinese working conditions so we can “afford” to bring those jobs back is not the way forward.

By the way, I would ask that we be conservative in accusations of anti-semitism, racism etc in-thread. At least require more than the mention of a commonly accepted phrase.

(And such charges naturally tend to elicit strong reactions, which could fuck up this discussion).

I try to refrain from fortune-telling — NOS4A2

It's not akin to fortune telling when there are scientific models to rely on. Looking at what I see, I predict 110,000 deaths within 3 months, presuming Trump remains on his recently corrected course.

Sorry, not intending to stir up shit, but "globalism" is commonly used as an antisemitic dog-whistle, and I just wanted to make sure it's not being used that way, and if not, that people are aware of those connotations of it so they can make sure not to sound like they're using it that way.

But the idea of globalism (sometimes called cosmopolitanism) has a long association with anti-Semitic movements, and the term "globalist" has often served as a dog-whistle to mean Jewish people. — Newsweek

“Alt-right”: “Protection from the globalist elite.”
ADL translation: “For the Alt Right, ‘globalist elite’ is mostly Jews.” — Anti-Defamation League

For the alt-right — aka, American neo-Nazis — the word “globalist” is pretty much a synonym for “Jews.” — The Jewish Chronicle

Ok, I just don't want to have to clean up a fight again. There's always the report button for that anyhow.

The latest estimate is .66% in the lancet.

addendum:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/30/opinion/president-unfit-pandemic/

"Things fall apart: the center cannot hold", wrote W.B. Yates in 1919. A century later, it's clear: The epicenter cannot hold. Catastrophic decisions in the White House have doomed the world's richest country to a season of untold suffering. — Editors, The Boston Globe, 3.30.20

... "Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity."

~W.B. Yeats

:death: :flower:

addendum:

:scream:

"The Trump administration received its first formal notification of the outbreak of the coronavirus in China on Jan. 3. Within days, U.S. spy agencies were signaling the seriousness of the threat to Trump by including a warning about the coronavirus — the first of many — in the President’s Daily Brief.

And yet, it took 70 days from that initial notification for Trump to treat the coronavirus not as a distant threat or harmless flu strain well under control, but as a lethal force that had outflanked America’s defenses and was poised to kill tens of thousands of citizens. That more-than-two-month stretch now stands as critical time that was squandered."

WaPo 4.4.20

:mask:

“The Trump organism is simply collapsing. He’s killing his own supporters.” :eyes:

(The Guardian UK, Op-Ed, 4.5.20)

“The Trump organism is simply collapsing. He’s killing his own supporters.” :eyes: — 180 Proof

Death cult

...aaaand if you end up face up in an ICU on life support, it's quite possibly going to be a Republican looking down on your almost corpse of a self, administering drugs to keep your blood pressure up long enough to see if your immune system can save you.

Joe Biden is actually bragging about being in charge of the oversight regarding how the '08 stimulus bill was spent... as if that was admirable???

:brow:

Talk about revisionist history...

That's nothing to brag about if we look at what actually happened.

:zip:

Where's Bernie?

Let that man speak to a national audience in prime time...

Another 4 more years of Trump is near certain...

It would serve Dems right not to be able to beat Trump in the midst of the worst social and economic crisis since the great depression because they chose to nominate the human equivalent of a failing HAL. Daisy, Daisy...

What amazes me is that the US is so polarised that Republicans actually think Trump is doing a good job with regards to Corona.

So the Democrats wanted Trump to open up more Obamacare exchanges so the uninsured could buy COVID healthcare insurance, and he said, fuck it, they can have it for free, i.e. Medicare for all. You know, the thing primary voters thought would make Bernie unelectable. Am I missing anything?

We'll never see the reason Bernie wouldn't win: the big GOP attack.

Chomsky explained this, that they would get anti-semitic and burn the word "socialist" into the American landscape.

Why can't liberals on this forum stay rational for two seconds in a row? I'm curious.

I hope you didn't just refer to me as a liberal. :chin: Anyway, what you've said doesn't seem inconsistent with what I said.

Would a raging liberal, by any other name, not still be a pain in the ass?

:smile:

Not when he agrees with you... :lol:

True

Socialist measures are fixing the economic crisis... or stabilizing it at the least...

The irony. The ignorance. The media puppets.

So the Democrats wanted Trump to open up more Obamacare exchanges so the uninsured could buy COVID healthcare insurance, and he said, fuck it, they can have it for free, i.e. Medicare for all for the uninsured. You know, the thing Dems thought would make Bernie unelectable. Am I missing anything — Baden

That's a slight mischaracterization of a few things actually...