If you're objective is it to compare this to other types of death, you have to assume the same type of error might exist with other deaths. — Hanover

Then again, there's the data how many people actually died. That is quite accurate, just like births.

That the numbers are estimates is quite common in the cases epidemics and pandemic. The number of soldiers killed in a small war can be far more accurate, in epidemics it never has been.

I think there will be a good consensus on just how many people died in this pandemic in let's say ten years. Then historians and epidemiologists have fought it out then and looked at the statistics carefully.

And naturally the importance of this pandemic is defined by the future: the less similar events happen and especially if they aren't so deadly, then the importance of this pandemic is greater and vice versa. Things can be later seen just as preludes to something else or defining moments of history: all depends what things this Century brings us next.

Face masks cannot stop healthy people getting Covid-19, says WHO
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/face-masks-cannot-stop-healthy-people-getting-covid-19-says-who

"Heymann said masks could create a false sense of security that could end up putting people at greater risk. Even with the mouth and nose fully covered, the virus can still enter through the eyes."

This and the recommendation that carers of covid-19 patients should wear masks both contradict the headline. In fact, the whole article is confusing, and it's not the fault of the article.

It seems that the WHO has been downplaying the protective utility of masks so as to emphasize the more important things, namely distancing and hand washing, etc. Fair enough, but I don't believe masks offer no protection at all, neither does the evidence show that. After all, the virus can enter through the nose and mouth.

It seems that the WHO has been downplaying the protective utility of masks so as to emphasize the more important things, namely distancing and hand washing, etc.

If you feel the urge to wear a mask in public, then you are unfit to be in public, stay home. Let the unafraid humans live normal.

So, all Asians are unfit according to you?

Yeah, the discourse around masks has been very confusing and unclear. I get that the lack of availability means that, as a matter of priority, masks should go towards primary care providers, but the idea that masks just flat out provide no protection seems contrary to commonsense. In the article: "the organisation maintained that while masks could help limit the spread of the disease, they were insufficient on their own" - which suggests: masks can be one part in an overarching strategy that, taken together, will limit the spread. I dunno, I'm puzzled by it.

we just need to get you installed as Trump's righthand man and the Doomsday devise will be complete. Mien Fuhrer/Orange one/Orangutan.

This might explain it better.

The short version is, most members of the public who use them don't use them properly, and there's a shortage so they should be saved for people most at risk.

The short version is, most members of the public who use them don't use them properly, and there's a shortage so they should be saved for people most at risk. — Michael

Yeah that's what I figured, though it seems to be mixed in with a message about masks actually being somehow ineffective - although a bit of dancing around the point on that last part. Suspect it's a matter of not trusting the public in some manner.

I think they're saying that just wearing a mask isn't very effective. You also need to fit it properly, dispose of it properly, wear gloves, wash hands regularly and properly, etc. They only work when you do everything else you're supposed to do, which most people probably aren't doing.

e.g. https://www.businessinsider.com/who-no-need-for-healthy-people-to-wear-face-masks-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

WHO officials said healthy people who wear masks might touch their own faces more often than necessary, which could increase their risk for COVID-19.

Mm fair enough.

Even the corona virus is racist in USA.

Even the corona virus is racist in USA. — Suto

Well, your health care system just sucks, that's all.

Sure, even in other countries there's a difference in the health between the rich and the poor. And when povetry goes somewhat along racial lines and when covid-19 is deadly for those with underlying health conditions, then that's why you have this result. Add the fact you have a lousy health care system. Here's how bad the downfall has been:

In the mid-20th century, the U.S. was a world leader in life expectancy. For a baby born in 2016, average life expectancy was 78.6 years. That was a drop from 78.7 years in 2015. This drop may sound small, but it was statistically significant. The average life expectancy also dropped by 0.1 years from 2014 to 2015. It was the first drop in life expectancy for all races in the U.S. since 1993 and the first multi-year drop since 1962-1963.

Based on average life expectancy, the United States ranked 31st in the world in 2015 behind a number of countries usually considered less well-developed.

So from first to 31st. Now the US is at place 46 or something.

This and the recommendation that carers of covid-19 patients should wear masks both contradict the headline. In fact, the whole article is confusing, and it's not the fault of the article. — jamalrob

The evidence is clear that a mask will help to reduce the spread from an infected person. And, a person might be infected without even knowing they are infected. But it's not easy to get people to think, I might be infected therefore I ought to wear a mask for the sake of others. Many people, like Merkwurd, would not be inclined that way:
"If you feel the urge to wear a mask in public, then you are unfit to be in public, stay home."

So people would be more inclined to wear a mask if they thought it was giving themselves some protection. The governing agencies could use a form of reverse psychology, hinting, or openly saying, that there is some degree of self-protection involved with mask wearing, and this would make people more inclined to wear them. However, it's a double edged sword because the false sense of security would make people less careful in other ways, and this could do more harm than good because people like Merkwurd would still be out there spreading the disease everywhere anyway.

Therefore to be effective the mask wearing would most likely need to be enforced, to ensure that it was carried out by everyone who might be infected. And some people take a very negative view to the enforcement of anything.

.

That the numbers are estimates is quite common in the cases epidemics and pandemic. The number of soldiers killed in a small war can be far more accurate, in epidemics it never has been. — ssu

Not actually true: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports

That is a pretty comprehensive report.

I’m still not convinced shutting down the world’s economy is a reasonable response (at least not for developing countries).

I’m still not convinced shutting down the world’s economy is a reasonable response (at least not for developing countries). — I like sushi

If we knew then what we know now, I dont think we would have. Some places needed it and some didn't. We took the most conservative approach in the face of the unknown.

If you had a time machine, would you go to Wuhan and contain it there?

Face masks cannot stop healthy people getting Covid-19 — Merkwurdichliebe

Like social distancing and the rest, it’s not just about fear of infection but fear of spreading it to others. If I’m a carrier a mask should offer those around me some protection. I understand masks are more effective in containing the virus to the wearer.

It looks like the head of the European Research Council, the EU’s main science body, has resigned over the coronavirus response. Trouble in the ivory tower.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/08/world/europe/08reuters-health-coronavirus-eu-scientist.html

But really, with so many deaths in the region, I feel like the EU will see many resignations.

is just the beginning of something bigger, more than the covid-19 itself, is its results, economic crash, another rescission (which is common every X years) the wtf figth between rusia and Saudi Arabia for the petroleum price and a large etc, who really knows what is next?

Not actually true: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports — I like sushi

You should look at how these figures are actually arrived at and you will see that there is a good deal of uncertainty. Just read any study of flu morbidity/mortality.

If we knew then what we know now, I dont think we would have. Some places needed it and some didn't. We took the most conservative approach in the face of the unknown.

We can't know this, firstly because we don't have a developed country which didn't have a lockdown and secondly the less developed countries, which are more vulnerable are behind us in the timeline, so we will have a much better view on this in a couple of months.

I live in a quiet corner of Norfolk and in theory we might not have needed such stringent lockdown measures, but I am happy we do, even though I have to stand in line for shopping etc. The point is that if we didn't lockdown in my neighbourhood, we would probably be experiencing infection rates equivalent to London right now, just as the hotspots of London, Birmingham and Manchester are struggling to cope with the wave of serious cases. We should bare in mind the numbers of medical staff falling ill, meaning they can't do their jobs. Any less of a lockdown would have resulted in more infections to medical staff along with more admissions. The whole system is only just managing to deliver the basic respiratory requirements and all elective surgery has been cancelled including all but a handful of cancer patients.

At the end of the day, what price is a human life?

The main thing is to not ask people what they mean and just assume they don't care about human life. Norfolk? For a second I thought you meant Virginia. I was going to ask if you're ex-military. Then you started talking about London. :smirk:

Wuhan develops new cluster of cases.

Yes I was expecting a bounce back in Wuhan and they've only been out of lockdown for one day.

Yes Norfolk England, the back of beyond.

When I said what price a life, I was thinking of the monetary calculation, rather than how much people value other people's lives.

↪Merkwurdichliebe So, all Asians are unfit according to you? — Benkei

What kind of rat bastard question is this...f'ing dirtbag trying to bait me into low quality posts...damn it worked. My apologies.

Also:

all Asians are unfit — Benkei

Very racist thing to say. Tsk tsk.

Like social distancing and the rest, it’s not just about fear of infection but fear of spreading it to others. If I’m a carrier a mask should offer those around me some protection. I understand masks are more effective in containing the virus to the wearer. — praxis

"If" you're a carrier? It is a very dangerous thing, to base your life around "ifs". And when the state begins to base its policies around "ifs", then systemic tyranny is very close at hand.

A degree of uncertainty is not the same as saying there is no accuracy. That is what I was pointing out.

I’m still waiting on the figures for deaths in UK from all causes to compare to last year.

Yes Norfolk England, the back of beyond. — Punshhh

Norfolk is for the north folk, Suffolk is for south folk. The east folk were in Doggerland and no longer exist, presumably. And as for the west folk... Cambridgeshire?

Note: It isn’t unusual for deaths to vary by a few thousand a month - in December and January the difference can be as much as 10,000 from one year to the next.

The ‘conservative’ reactions may have just caused disruption that will linger for decades in developing countries increasing infant mortality, malnutrition, unemployment and homelessness.

This has been my concern since the beginning and the longer this ‘lockdown’ continuing the worse things will be. The mortality rate of covid is pretty much seen as being under 1% now. I wouldn’t be surprised if it turns out it is as low as 0.3%.

"If" you're a carrier? It is a very dangerous thing, to base your life around "ifs". And when the state begins to base its policies around "ifs", then systemic tyranny is very close at hand. — Merkwurdichliebe

It’s not very manly of you to have such fear of uncertainty, Merk.

It’s not very manly of you to have such fear [of] uncertainty — praxis

When did I fear uncertainty? Please explain or consider your accusation invalidated.

Also...

It sounds like you are implying that fear is a womanly quality. Kinda sexist dont'cha think?