now the science says we will be ready to open May 1st — ArguingWAristotleTiff

What science do you mean? Opening up everything on May 1st would be a self-destructive move in terms of the virus unless you have a proper system of tracking and tracing plus masks for everyone plus continued social distancing etc. Otherwise, you'll just go back to square one and have to face closing down again for exactly the same reasons you originally did. The sad part is as you indicated that even when you do open up, the economy will still be screwed apart from online retailers, distance services, and the like. I mean even apart from the problems you mentioned, no person in their right mind is going to go rushing to a ball game or a bar in the middle of a pandemic just because Trump or some other equally stupid official says its OK.

My beef: we responsibly shut down our economy based on the science and now the science says we will be ready to open May 1st BUT our Mayor disagrees with the same science and said there are other things to consider. What other things? — ArguingWAristotleTiff

Science speaks with many maybes and possiblys and perhapses. There is a good deal of "no evidence" like this bunch of nincompoops for example.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0418/1132298-who-anti-bodies-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR0x2A5stdMqEw98mdXBVCEfJ7Usb_ui86Nd5z5hlnjfPs2k_JvOv_EM8Lk

Senior WHO epidemiologists warned despite the hopes governments across the world have piled on antibody tests, there is no proof those who have been infected cannot be infected again.

Now if the whole virus doesn't produce immunity, it's hard to see how a vaccine would work, and we might just have to get used to a lot of people dying a lot younger and being ill a lot oftener. But I wouldn't be in a great rush to welcome that situation

It’s crazy to think about. Many of us might be without homes within the year. I suspect that within the decade historians will look back and say we took the wrong approach. Best of luck.

Here’s an interview in Nature with epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who remains positive about the Swedish case. The voluntary approach shows no clear deviation from the draconian approach, and it has the added benefit of herd immunity, a semi-functioning economy, and no denial of basic liberties. As of now they are better equipped to return to normal.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01098-x

What science do you mean? Opening up everything on May 1st would be a self-destructive move in terms of the virus unless you have a proper system of tracking and tracing plus masks for everyone plus continued social distancing etc. — Baden

You tell me what AZ should do:
Live Updates by Zipcode
Orders by the Governor to shut down
Why close?
And here is our roadmap forward laid out by our Governor

Otherwise, you'll just go back to square one and have to face closing down again for exactly the same reasons you originally did. — Baden

Which were laid out on a national level by our President.
Were we as Phoenicians ever in danger of the horror that is occurring in NY?
And if you can answer that "Yes" then what is the danger level now when we are "staying at home"? Before you answer that considering the health of the individuals; remember that there is the health of the community and the economy that breathes life into our society that at this moment is on life support. Unlike socialist countries philosophies, the USA is based on taking care of our own, beginning at home, to our neighbor and hence our community. But my "interacting community" is much different than yours or anthers so I cannot dictate how you handle it, how Turkey handles it or any other country does. All I can do is take care of me so I can take care of those around me.

The sad part is as you indicated that even when you do open up, the economy will still be screwed apart from online retailers, distance services, and the like. I mean even apart from the problems you mentioned, no person in their right mind is going to go rushing to a ball game or a bar in the middle of a pandemic just because Trump or some other equally stupid official says its OK. — Baden

So very sad and tragic but I can only do the best I can with what I have and right now I am living on the edge. NicK is the sole provider and we are made up of small to med size businesses my friend. You can see how fragile the whole thing called life is. When we focus our attention on one issue, we solve it, but we also take our eye off the collective ball that keeps us moving.

I push on with my studies to get that Social Work degree to help people professionally, God knows there is a need.

There are a couple things that thrive with a stay at home order:
*Spousal abuse
*Child abuse
*Alcohol abuse
*Drug abuse

What is the answer? There is a lot of wisdom in the idea that the cure cannot be worse than the dis-ease but we may have already past that point...

To a large extent, Swedes are voluntarily social distancing. They are doing what other nations needed to be forced to do. When our government (in Ireland) told us to voluntarily social distance, thousands of fuckwits still crowded into pubs, and as a result the pubs had to be closed. Swedes have been leaving pubs virtually empty of their own volition. So, what's necessary is to a degree cultural, and there's little sense in pitting strategy A vs strategy B without interpreting what that will actually mean in practice. If it turns out that there's a significantly higher rate of asymptomatic cases than originally thought and that, unlike the flu, reinfection is not a serious risk then the Swedish model might retroactively look good for Sweden. Even then, we still won't be able to generalize that judgement in a decontextualized way.

Excellent article!
I especially liked this at the end: How do you see science changing after the pandemic?
We’re reporting on how research and researchers’ lives may be permanently changed by the coronavirus. In what ways do think things will be different in the years ahead?

The northeast definitely needed lockdown. The rest of us? It's hard to say what would have happened with a more limited approach. — frank

I know it is for the betterment of the greater good but I just don't know how we are going to fare. We are making arrangements to backstop one of our indians whose job came to a halt and is in Phase 4 of reopening. I have to hand it to the younger generation of being flexible and adapting to new ideas in this new world but it's not my first rodeo, house fire or major tragedy and my bones aren't as resilient as they once were.

Do you think Trump lost ground due to this? — frank

No, I think he has done as best he could with what he knew at the time. I don't for a minute think it was a death toll risk ratio for him as in a way of delaying any steps leading up to the shut down. In fact it has been a comfort to know that our current President has been our advocate through these past four years. What I do think is the WHO and science has to allow the exchange of information as promised but not delivered accurate, timely nor willingly. That is inexcusable and we need to look at how we want to go forward armed with the knowledge we will have in hindsight.

So much for 2020 Vision eh?

Now if the whole virus doesn't produce immunity, it's hard to see how a vaccine would work, and we might just have to get used to a lot of people dying a lot younger and being ill a lot oftener. But I wouldn't be in a great rush to welcome that situation — unenlightened

Herd immunity for those who are healthy....there is something to be said for it. My feeling is if you feel slated as at risk then please stay home. If you feel vulnerable but aren't sick, stay at home. If you feel as though you are contributing by staying at home, please stay home. I want vaccines, I want immunity testing, I want an oxygen meter for every person who wants to know if what they are experiencing is Covid or Influenza as there is a trend in people feeling fine with O2 readings well below 90 which is NOT normal and shows up days in advance of becoming critical. I want to be able to donate plasma if I know I have had it, I want my indian who we think had it to donate plasma, I want to do everything I can unenlingtened but can I still preserve my own life while doing so?

It’s crazy to think about. Many of us might be without homes within the year. I suspect that within the decade historians will look back and say we took the wrong approach. Best of luck. — NOS4A2

Reading your words turned my stomach back to 2008 when we lost our health insurance because it was that or the mortgage. We lost that margin and never recovered it. My parents are watching their lifetime investments decimated and I have no idea when I will see either of them. My only blessing is that my Dad (biological) passed away before this because isolation would have taken his life and he would have had to passed alone.
Hardly a comfort but trust me it is...

I especially liked this at the end: How do you see science changing after the pandemic?
We’re reporting on how research and researchers’ lives may be permanently changed by the coronavirus. In what ways do think things will be different in the years ahead?

Personally I think the modelling approach to prediction took a big hit during this pandemic. Even as educated guesses they were way off, but were nonetheless used to guide public policy. I bet we’ll see a new generation of climate change deniers and conspiracy theorists because of it. I think the opposite will be said of research and the medical profession.

Reading your words turned my stomach back to 2008 when we lost our health insurance because it was that or the mortgage. We lost that margin and never recovered it. My parents are watching their lifetime investments decimated and I have no idea when I will see either of them. My only blessing is that my Dad (biological) passed away before this because isolation would have taken his life and he would have had to passed alone.
Hardly a comfort but trust me it is...

I’m really sorry about your father. I suppose that is a comfort. My grandmother passed away peacefully last week. She didn’t get sick from the virus and has been in palliative care since January, but I wasn’t allowed see her. There can be no funeral, no wake, no nothing.

My own business has dried up so much that I’m living on my savings. I’m not sure how long that can last.

I suspect that within the decade historians will look back and say we took the wrong approach. — NOS4A2

This would be a difficult call to make because we never get to see how the alternatives would have panned out. So the chosen approach really needs to result in serious disaster before it ends up being judged as the wrong approach. And even then, the trend is to blame the disaster on the circumstances beyond our control. Notice how when we look back we always seem to be either on the right side of history, or else the alternatives appear like they would have made very little difference.

My feeling is if you feel slated as at risk then please stay home. If you feel vulnerable but aren't sick, stay at home. If you feel as though you are contributing by staying at home, please stay home. — ArguingWAristotleTiff

The basic choice seems to be between contributing to the health of people or the health of the economy. This has to be, at least largely, a false dilemma. In any scenario, the economy will be badly affected. Who knows, maybe it would have been more harshly affected without the measures that have been taken. There could have been massive labor strikes and associated public unrest, an overtaxed healthcare system, and so on. The economy seemed ripe for a downturn anyway.

In any scenario, the economy will be badly affected.

I have to agree with this. The bottom line is that we have to adjust to a way of living which limits the spread of the virus sufficiently that it can be kept under control. I think the economy can be kept running as well, but the necessary adjustments are not easy for communities to adopt sufficiently. Each country seems to have imposed a lockdown when this equation was not going to be possible to sustain. The quicker communities adjust, the quicker they can go back to work.

The adjustment looks like a regime of widespread testing and contact tracing, social distancing measures where people remain at least 2m apart. Wear masks, possibly gloves in certain circumstances and sanitise or wash their hands regularly when in public places. Bars and restaurants will have to have customers widely spaced and take care not to let the virus get into their kitchens, or behind the bar. Unfortunately large mass gatherings are going to have to wait longer before we can return to these due to difficulties with spread.

Here’s an interview in Nature with epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who remains positive about the Swedish case. — NOS4A2

Umm.... surely the architecht, the person responsible of the path the Sweden is positive about it. And Swedes like him btw.

I think that Trump would love Anders Tegnell now and would like to replace Fauci with Tegnell.



But really, you will only know how effective the option was only later. I remember one paper saying that perhaps 1/3 of Swedes have endured it. For herd immunity you need 2/3.

Personally I think the modelling approach to prediction took a big hit during this pandemic. Even as educated guesses they were way off, but were nonetheless used to guide public policy. I bet we’ll see a new generation of climate change deniers and conspiracy theorists because of it. I think the opposite will be said of research and the medical profession. — NOS4A2

I have to agree with you and it is unfortunate for a lot of people around the nation, maybe around the globe but as unenlightened rightfully pointed out "maybe's" aren't enough but then again I am not sure what is "enough".

I’m really sorry about your father. I suppose that is a comfort. My grandmother passed away peacefully last week. She didn’t get sick from the virus and has been in palliative care since January, but I wasn’t allowed see her. There can be no funeral, no wake, no nothing. — NOS4A2

I thank you for your words of comfort and would like to offer up my condolences on the loss of your Grandmother. No one in this world should have to die alone and it is a going to be a slow unwind once we are able to slow down our anxiety enough to breathe and grieve.

I wish I was able to be with every person that has to have passed alone, for it is not to be that way in my eyes. I know there is a Tsunami of grief waiting just outside the front door and I am ready to help, really I am. I wish I could have been with you when your Grandmother passed to comfort you as we all blaze this new way, and a shitty way I might add, to have a loved one pass without you. :broken:

My own business has dried up so much that I’m living on my savings. I’m not sure how long that can last. — NOS4A2

Said the proud businessperson through no fault of their own was shoved off the cliff of fear to save their fellow citizens.

Thank you.

The basic choice seems to be between contributing to the health of people or the health of the economy. This has to be, at least largely, a false dilemma. In any scenario, the economy will be badly affected. Who knows, maybe it would have been more harshly affected without the measures that have been taken. There could have been massive labor strikes and associated public unrest, an overtaxed healthcare system, and so on. The economy seemed ripe for a downturn anyway. — praxis

If it is a "false dilemma" then I sure do hope it is "false" money that we are throwing at this to satisfy the beast we call the economy. How solid are you in your home and savings? I hope you are able to say paid for and not to worry, I have enough money to last anything the world throws at you.
"Associated public unrest"...huh.....like what?
Tell me what that would look like to you.

I have to agree with this. The bottom line is that we have to adjust to a way of living which limits the spread of the virus sufficiently that it can be kept under control. I think the economy can be kept running as well, but the necessary adjustments are not easy for communities to adopt sufficiently. Each country seems to have imposed a lockdown when this equation was not going to be possible to sustain. The quicker communities adjust, the quicker they can go back to work.

The adjustment looks like a regime of widespread testing and contact tracing, social distancing measures where people remain at least 2m apart. Wear masks, possibly gloves in certain circumstances and sanitise or wash their hands regularly when in public places. Bars and restaurants will have to have customers widely spaced and take care not to let the virus get into their kitchens, or behind the bar. Unfortunately large mass gatherings are going to have to wait longer before we can return to these due — Punshhh

We are willing to follow the guidelines and ultimately it is going to come down to trust which is what it has always been. Do we trust the people who are cooking our food? Do we trust the Priest who is preaching? Do we trust the Doctors who are treating us?

We are willing to follow the guidelines and ultimately it is going to come down to trust which is what it has always been. Do we trust the people who are cooking our food? Do we trust the Priest who is preaching? Do we trust the Doctors who are treating us? — ArguingWAristotleTiff

Georgia has declared the war is over as have Tennessee and now South Carolina. Restaurants open on Monday for dine in. You can go into lock down in the northeast or come down here for some Southern hospitality. I'm not saying this whole thing was total bullshit, but plenty of it smelled that way.

The UN is now predicting famines of “biblical” proportions within the next few months.

Addressing the UN Security Council during a video conference, Mr Beasley said the world had to "act wisely and act fast".

"We could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months," he said. "The truth is we do not have time on our side."

In a call to action, he added: "I do believe that with our expertise and our partnerships, we can bring together the teams and the programmes necessary to make certain the Covid-19 pandemic does not become a human and food crisis catastrophe."

The WFP's senior economist, Arif Husain, said the economic impact of the pandemic was potentially catastrophic for millions "who are already hanging by a thread".

"It is a hammer blow for millions more who can only eat if they earn a wage," he said in a statement.

"Lockdowns and global economic recession have already decimated their nest eggs. It only takes one more shock - like Covid-19 - to push them over the edge. We must collectively act now to mitigate the impact of this global catastrophe."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52373888

If this does come to pass, it will be a man-made catastrophe.

You can go into lock down in the northeast or come down here for some Southern hospitality — Hanover

"Welcome to COVID country!" :death: :party:

Georgia already has more cases than the whole of Ireland btw. But, I'm sure everything will be fine. :meh:

Thank you, friend.

Georgia already has more cases than the whole of Ireland btw. But, I'm sure everything will be fine. :meh: — Baden

Georgia has a larger population than Ireland. Might even have more Irish than Ireland

"Associated public unrest"...huh.....like what? — ArguingWAristotleTiff

How bout a little something like this...

Georgia has a larger population than Ireland. Might even have more Irish than Ireland — Hanover

Nope.

Georgia 3.7 million.
Ireland 4.9 million.

All the Irish are about to leave COVID country anyway. They may be thick, but they're not stupid.

My own business has dried up so much that I’m living on my savings. I’m not sure how long that can last. — NOS4A2

I seem to recall you saying that you're retired. Not to suggest that you're incapable of lying.

I seem to recall you saying that you're retired. — praxis

Bot glitch.

Incidentally, the US just recorded its highest number of daily deaths from COVID. Over 2,700 so far today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And how anyone can look at 2,700 deaths in one day and say, "Time to open everything up!" is just utterly beyond me.

A few stats show it's currently by far the leading killer in the U.S. Of course, unlike the causes of death below, it's highly contagious and likely to become an even bigger killer if the liberty nuts get their way.

Car crash daily deaths: ~100
Gun violence daily deaths: ~100
Stroke daily deaths: ~50
Heart diseases daily deaths: ~1,000
Cancer daily deaths: ~1750

I retired from the Kremlin many years ago.

Nope.

Georgia 3.7 million.
Ireland 4.9 million.

All the Irish are about to leave COVID country anyway. They may be thick, but they're not stupid. — Baden

I'm from the state of Georgia in the US, not the irrelevant country Georgia. Our population is 10.62 million. Theirs is 3.7 million.

There's actually a Dublin in Georgia. I think you guys named your city after ours. It was the home of the now defunct Redneck Games. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redneck_Games