Sort of an interesting post I think? — Hanover

Yes, I saved it. But I was born wanting to save the world. Even if I learn to be reckless with my own life, I can't be reckless with other people's.

As expected: Chloroquine doesn't work — Benkei

That you expected it just means you're a pessimist. I blame you for its failure because you thought evil into existence. Just what kind of monster are you?

But I was born wanting to save the world. — frank

A laudable but impossible goal, so therefore less laudable than living out the full potential of your own creation, as that you are fully in control of and that is of equally infinite worth.

I am really inspirational today.

Sort of an interesting post I think? — Hanover

Only as an exposition of how to conflate responsible behavior with timidness and stupidity with heroism. I think you know that though because, unlike your governor, you're not a complete shit-for-brains. Feel free to save that. :kiss:

Only as an exposition of how to conflate responsible behavior with timidness and stupidity with heroism. I think you know that though because unlike your governor, you're not a complete shit-for-brains. Feel free to save that. :kiss: — Baden

Had Sir Kemp (I knighted him) based his decision on godly inspired rhetoric like my own, I'd have been awestruck and fully supportive. As it stands, I think his decision was extracted from a much lower place, deep inside his shithole.

:up:

Here's a hero for ya:

laudable but impossible goal, so therefore less laudable than living out the full potential of your own creation, as that you are fully in control of and that is of equally infinite worth. — Hanover

But these sick people keep showing up in front of me. Don't suffering people present themselves to you asking for help?

And that darkness you walked through, did you face it all alone? Or did somebody reach out their hand to you?

Frightening. State-enforced economic collapse. Capitalism hasn’t failed; it was murdered by the state. — NOS4A2

This reply has been posted on The Philosophy Forum Facebook page.
Congratulations and thank you for your contribution.

If you're stuck in the spinning swirling crashing death spin, you might as well enjoy the ride. Do you want your last breaths to be spent trembling and clinging to whatever you can hold onto until it too fractures into a million pieces?

It's the response of the unscarred soul that has never experienced true devastation, so it lives with the illusion that there really is stability to lose. True optimism is forged in trauma, so the most fearful are those who haven't ever felt walked in sufficient darkness, so they live their lives trying to avoid it, which only leads them to something worse. It's that frigid timid place of worry and fret where you hold onto whatever makes you feel stable, despite you're not realizing that whatever it is you hold onto is infinitely more fragile than the divinity impregnated in you. If you'd only step away and stand on your solid feet, you'd realize that is the only thing that won't falter. — Hanover

This reply has been posted on The Philosophy Forum Facebook page. Congratulations and thank you for your contribution. :flower:

Here's a hero for ya: — Baden

There is a certain heroism in everyone who faces the day fighting whatever demons come their way. That encompasses the health worker as much as the hair stylist who stands well within six feet of her customer in order to keep her lights on.

You come up with some mad shit sometimes.

Congratulations and thank you for your contribution. :flower:

But these sick people keep showing up in front of me. Don't suffering people present themselves to you asking for help? — frank

Your path crossed theirs for the purpose of elevating you.
That's the purpose for everything. It would be hubris to assume you offered more to them than them to you when your journey intersected theirs. So yes, engage them, and thank them for their gift to you.

And that darkness you walked through, did you face it all alone? Or did somebody reach out their hand to you? — frank

The concept of alone is meaningless except to the godless.

But, to your more concrete question, their were fewer helpful people than I wished, but even the best surgeon can only push on this and push on that. All healing happens internally.

You come up with some mad shit sometimes.

Congratulations and thank you for your contribution. :flower: — Baden

I do try to teeter on that fine edge between being profound and being absurd.

To die is to lose the self and rejoin the rest. To quarantine is to keep yourself, and lose the rest.

Sounds boring. If you're stuck in the spinning swirling crashing death spin, you might as well enjoy the ride. Do you want your last breaths to be spent trembling and clinging to whatever you can hold onto until it too fractures into a million pieces?

It's the response of the unscarred soul that has never experienced true devastation, so it lives with the illusion that there really is stability to lose. True optimism is forged in trauma, so the most fearful are those who haven't ever felt walked in sufficient darkness, so they live their lives trying to avoid it, which only leads them to something worse. It's that frigid timid place of worry and fret where you hold onto whatever makes you feel stable, despite you're not realizing that whatever it is you hold onto is infinitely more fragile than the divinity impregnated in you. If you'd only step away and stand on your solid feet, you'd realize that is the only thing that won't falter.

Sort of an interesting post I think?

Such an excellent description of Trump and you didn't even know you were doing it.

It's not about optimism or pessimism. It's about not opening your mouth until you have enough information.

I do try to teeter on that fine edge between being profound and being absurd.

Have you revealed a hidden mystic in there?

Those memes sounds familiar.

I've tried to estimate this effect very roughly but not sure whether what I did made sense. I'm only a lawyer after all. :smile:

see: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AOotU5H7YUp1mmZF6FplAz8FfQb7T-U_JzAUaxBTSB4/edit?usp=sharing

I assumed that the maximum number of cohorts of people who would die from covid-19 would be indeed the death rate; so if we have a 100% infection rate immediately, 0.66% of everyone would die . Then as people die, I calculate the percentage of cohorts left and adjust the deaths by adjusting for the percentage left.

Of course, this doesn't take into account the effect on spread but I suppose it's a start.

EDIT: actually I just did the same by adjusting the R0 by the percentage of people left that can still get infected. That's probably wrong... but I can't think of anything else yet.

That's quite a neat way of starting. Of course the fatality rate doesn't reduce linearly with the size of the the available cohort (it selects the most vulnerable first), but as this would only apply to an immediate homogeneous geographical spread (so that it has access to the entire most vulnerable cohort at once) I think the two factors might balance one another out.. ish.

What's nice about the way you've presented it is that it shows how the short term predictions (the ones justifying the responses) aren't affected by the exhaustion of cohorts. They don't need to take it into account because ICUs are overstretched before the effect even kicks in.

Your path crossed theirs for the purpose of elevating you.
That's the purpose for everything. It would be hubris to assume you offered more to them than them to you when your journey intersected theirs. So yes, engage them, and thank them for their gift to you.

The concept of alone is meaningless except to the godless.

But, to your more concrete question, their were fewer helpful people than I wished, but even the best surgeon can only push on this and push on that. All healing happens internally. — Hanover

Saved this :heart:

I read that 88% of the people placed on ventilators die. What evidence do we have that our hospitals are doing anything meaningful to save lives? Unless we can show the survival rate is statistically higher upon receipt of treatment, there is no basis for prolonging the inevitable infection of the majority of the population. Do I really care if there are sufficient hospital beds to die in?

Indulge me in really weighing fairly the following question: If the COVID 19 broke out in Arizona instead of New York, would the desicision to shut the country down have been the same?
Would people in Chicago be staying at home?
I just ask that you ponder it before answering.

The concept of alone is meaningless except to the godless. — Hanover

I was surprised yesterday (earthday) in the godfearing-right's reaction towards the Pope and his indictment of humanity's failure to care for the planet, and I already had a low opinion of the godfearing. They certainly are together in their hatred.

A glaring example of religion taking a backseat to political "ideology," proving once again that it all amounts to tribalism.

Hopefully, the Pope won't condemn the lockdown protestors or the godfearing right will completely disown him.

Hopefully, the Pope won't condemn the lockdown protestors or the godfearing right will completely disown him. — praxis

The Pope's time would be better spent on removing the pedophile rapists from the ranks of his club. As to what he said regarding the earth, I don't know. He's not on my radar.

Your writing is aesthetically pleasing though, I should add.

Indulge me in really weighing fairly the following question: If the COVID 19 broke out in Arizona instead of New York, would the desicision to shut the country down have been the same?
Would people in Chicago be staying at home?
I just ask that you ponder it before answering.

Good question. Hawaii has 12 deaths but is on strict lockdown because of the state of affairs in New York. Yet it is almost half way around the globe.

Hawaii has 12 deaths but is on strict lockdown because of the state of affairs in New York. — NOS4A2

Last year Hawaii had a bit over 10 million visitors, ya nincompoop.

Last year Hawaii had a bit over 10 million visitors, ya nincompoop.

And?

In a pandemic, it would probably be a good idea to lockdown a relatively small area that gets 10 million people traveling through it a year regardless of what's happening in NY. Also, it speaks to the interconnectedness of the world in terms of travel.

In a pandemic, it would probably be a good idea to lockdown a relatively small area that gets 10 million people traveling through it a year regardless of what's happening in NY. Also, it speaks to the interconnectedness of the world in terms of travel.

I don't think lockdowns are a good idea for the simple reason it is never a good idea to destroy one's own economy. The main reason for doing so was the fear that a surge would overwhelm the healthcare system, which largely hasn't happened, even in states with no stay-at-home restrictions like Wyoming, Iowa or South Dakota. It's becoming more apparent that treating the entire country as if it were New York City or Italy was a huge mistake.