The real toxicity in UK politics is the divisive identity politics of the liberal left, the non-stop shit stirring.

Empire building is always a bad idea if the people never voted for it. In that the EU is very close to the old soviet empire...just a softer form of it but still bad.

One of the big giveaways of the eu is that it's predominately middle class people that want it...

Empire building by itself is not a problem I think. Many would agree that living in the Roman Empire was more prosperous than living in some germanic tribe. The USA is also an empire of its states, but people are quite happy there. Soviet Union with its communism was quite misguided...

There are some corrupt elements to the EU, such as the CAP subsidy system favouring large landowners, such as the Queen and Saudi sheikhs, and the lack of auditing of financials, which I think is a pretty huge problem. They also appoint the commissioner rather than go with the Spitzenkanidate, which is a true disrespect to democracy.

However, in my opinion, the goal should be reform, not disintegration. The UK will be ruled by the elite hiding in their "non-UK" offshore jurisdictions even more than before, and there will be no EU counterweight to protect everyday people. So certain elites will benefit a lot.

The middle class in the UK will be clearly at a disadvantage, as I'd argue they were one of the big beneficiaries of EU membership.

The lower class will benefit too, but only in the short term. If they were non-competitive with EU workers, the right solution would be to increase competitiveness and learn a new skill, and not to resort to isolationism and protectionism. As the former will increase overall wealth much more than the latter. So it's only a short term win for them.

I am old enough to remember when the UK kept applying to join the EEC as it then was, and DeGaulle (the ungrateful bastard) kept saying "Non." He was famous for it and well resented for it by the peasantry and chattering classes alike.

I read recently (I was looking at COVID-19 info) that the NHS has been accused by multiple of women of being denied pain medication for childbirth. Apparently some women have considered abortion rather than face it again. The article said that at least part of the problem is staffing. I thought of that while watching fdrake's video: "Take back control." Maybe that resonates way beyond membership in the EU.

There have been many worrying reports about maternity units and midwifery over the last few years in the UK, including many unnecessary deaths of newborns, due to negligent midwifery. I'm not surprised by what you say. There are some very odd things happening in hospitals at the moment. A friend of mine who has Addisons disease was admitted to hospital about a week ago for his Addisons symptoms. He told a scary story about confusion about his symptoms amongst the healthcare workers. After a couple of days he got the impression that he was going to be put into a Covid ward. He tried to discharge himself and they locked the doors and refused to let him out, eventually he managed to escape by going through the services entrance. He won't be going back.

All your criticisms of the EU are myths peddled by anti EU activists, or rumour amongst friends. I know because I briefly became hoodwinked by them in the early 1990's and then when I looked into it, they were never actually correct, or true, or accentuated a small imbalance or problem, so as to sway people to start questioning our membership.

There is a real issue about the number of mainly Polish people who came over from 2004. But the government at the time could have limited the numbers and imposed conditions to control their access to longer term residency and welfare services, as many other EU countries did and still do. It was Tony Blair who allowed "unfettered access" to EU citizens which was the root of the problem. It was never necessary to leave the EU to solve this problem.

I agree with what you refer to about the choice as it was laid out in 1973, that it was just for a single market. Fortunately due to the flexibility of the EU, it has repeatedly agreed to arrangements for the UK to remain outside the closer integrations, between the other members. There hasn't been at any point an insistence that the UK should integrate in these ways. The ways in which greater integration has occurred were always agreed to, even led by the UK government.

The systemic demographic problems which have developed in the UK following 2004 and pressure on housing and public services etc, are due to poor management of taxation, investment and funding by UK governments, the EU was not responsible for these problems.

There are some issues with EU policy particularly the common agricultural policy, which does require overhauling. It's not perfect, but I don't see how the alternative is going to be any better?

As you're interested in the back story here, I happened to watch an interesting programme lastnight by my favourite TV historian Michael Wood. In which he delved deep into the history of the French invasion of Britain in 1066. It confirmed what I had been thinking for a while now, that Britain was ruled with an iron fist by invaders who divided up the land between them and turned many in the population into tenants on what had hitherto been their own land. This persisted for over two hundred years culminating in a civil war (not the larger civil war of 1648), but widespread revolt against the French rulers, which was eventually quashed with some horrific slaughters and the reimposition of an apartheid, which they had been living with for two hundred years.

Such resentment can remain in the population for many generations and I'm sure is the basis for a lot of the mistrust of certainly the French.

Anyway going back to the story, Michael Wood focused on a small town in central England called Kibworth and its surrounding area, for which there is a complete and unbroken record of every event which happened going back to 1066 in the parish registers and records kept in a purpose built library in Merton College Oxford. It is the oldest continually used library in the world built in the 14th century. There is real life testimony documenting the apartheid system which was introduced in which the Britons where second class citizens and the ruling elite where portrayed as superior overlords. The vestiges of this class division still remain in this country and is partly responsible for the deep class divisions and wealth inequality of the UK today. This is the backdrop to this existential issue in the psyche of the British people.

I had thought that in the modern world intelligent grown up people were able to put such historic divisions behind them and begin to work towards a common good, in peace and prosperity and certainly the EU project is a serious and concerted effort to achieve such progress. People who are critical of it should remember the reasons for which it was established, to end countless centuries of war and division and to move forward in mutual cooperation.

The real toxicity in UK politics is the divisive identity politics of the liberal left, the non-stop shit stirring.

This is a typical populist straw man argument. Oh, look at those looney left over there in the corner, it's all their fault. Not our fault who have been in power for the last 40 years. It glosses over the fact that those looneys in the corner haven't got anywhere near power during the period in question.

Have you seen Ian Duncan Smith being interviewed recently, it's so toxic that he regularly threatens the interviewer. Also did you watch the power drunk swagger of Geoffrey Cox in parliament following the preroging of parliament verdict. Followed by Johnson's violent rant ripping up any decency left in parliament, insulting the memory of Joe Cox, the MP murdered by a crazed Brexiter, following on from two years of the Tory Brexit psycho drama.

Oh no, it's those looney left over there in the corner, it's all their fault, their doing.

And now this vitriol is going to be turned on the EU commissioners and European leaders by Johnson and his stooges. Haven't we learnt anything from 2000 years of war and pillage and tyranny?

Punshhh and fdrake display a complete misconception of what motivated many people to decide that leaving the political institution was a good idea. They just regurgitate the same old racism crap...I'll give you a list that motivated me and probably many others... — Chester

Apologies about the previous post, I made an assumption somewhere in it that was extremely wrong, will retract it if you've already read it.

The Migration Observatory at Oxford university estimates that the effects of immigration on wages and unemployment of natives between the years 1993 and 2017 have been quite minor. The worst effects, which you are right in attributing to the poorest people, are still quite minor over this period.

The overall picture is that the effects depend upon the demographics of immigrants; if all the immigrants were Indian computer programmers for UK sponsored coding projects, you wouldn't expect there to be much effect on roofers' wages from that. The review I've linked suggests that effects of low skilled migrant work on wages paid for low skilled jobs is negative, but it's actually minor, the decreases being estimated at between about 5% over the 1993-2017 period for the 10th percentile of wages.

The MAC (2018) estimated that an increase in the number of EU migrants corresponding to 1% of the UK-born working-age population resulted in a 0.8% decrease in UK-born wages at the 5th and 10th percentiles (i.e. people in the bottom 5-10% of earners), and a 0.6% increase at the 90th percentile (i.e. high earners). In practice, this means that between 1993 and 2017, the total effect of EU migration on the wages of UK-born workers was estimated to be a 4.9% reduction in wages for those at the 10th earnings percentile, a 1.6% reduction at the 25th percentile, a 1.6% increase at the 50th percentile, and a 4.4% increase at the 90th percentile. The calculation of the total impact should be interpreted with caution, however, because the model estimates the short-run response to migration, which is expected to disappear over time (MAC, 2018: 32).

Let's be incautious with interpreting this, and say the effects calculated wouldn't average out over the years as the paper tells us they are expected to.

Currently, the 10th percentile of earners (the maximum stated effected group) make about £8160, which would mean they had £34 per monthly wage packet less than they would if there were absolutely no immigration from EU countries (holding all else fixed in the background, which is not a reasonable assumption). In this hypothetical, they would go from £680 to £646 per month.

In terms of lifestyle differences, people on both rates are still unable to afford rent, bills and food at the same time in most areas of Britain. They will struggle without government aid and extremely cheap social housing in both scenarios.

For people in the 25th percentile in this same hypothetical, they go from £15840 per year to £15650 per year, monthly difference of about £16, so just over a starbucks a week.

In terms of unemployment, the picture is similar.

For example, Dustmann et al. (2005) concluded that immigration had no effect on the overall employment outcomes of UK-born workers but did find adverse effects on the employment of UK-born workers with intermediate education and a positive impact on those with A-levels or university degrees. Lemos and Portes (2008) analysed the impact of labour immigration of EU-8 workers on claimant unemployment, finding little evidence of an adverse effect. Another study focusing on London, the region with the highest levels of migration over the past few decades, also found no negative effects (Fingleton et al, 2019).

MAC (2018) also produced new results, suggesting that immigration from EU countries during the 34-year period from 1983 to 2017 had reduced the employment rate of the UK-born working age population by around 2 percentage points and increased unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. However, it also noted that with employment rates at a historic high towards the end of this period, one should “be cautious in suggesting these outcomes could be much better than they already are.”

The effects of immigration on employment levels are negligible or inconclusive.

If what's happened so far is "mass migration", as the tabloids like to present it, the economic effects on the poor and those in low skilled jobs have been very minor; the fucked are still fucked, the minimum wage people would have to order a small rather than a tall at Starbucks to make up the difference.

It's much, much more the case that what news media you consume predicts both what you assume to be true and your overall opinion on immigration.

Interpret these intuitions you have about the squeeze on the British working class in the context of the 2008 recession and austerity programs. Britain has not been much better at recovering than Greece (also here), the British economy's been stagnant, the cost of living is increasing, and there are huge cuts on social care.

The immiseration that people are blaming on the EU and on immigration are much more adequately explained by living in a finance capital bubble since 2008 (which just burst catastrophically) with our real economy failing to recover much since then.

You accuse me of spreading myths then don't bother pointing out my "myths" with evidence to back your arguments...because you know that what I have said is factual.

Then you accuse me of pointing the finger at the liberal left when the liberal left do nothing but point and accuse of racism, sexism, homophobia, transism, Islamophobia etc , etc , etc .The liberal left has abandoned the working class for new , woke, identitarian politics and wonders why it is dying as a political force. We should also remember that some real leftists were very much anti-EU , being anti-EU does not imply being right-wing.

I'll say again, it is the political liberal left that has caused division and hate in our society. It comes from an arrogance born of middle class (spoiled) upbringing combined with liberal, identity obsessed university education. The funny thing is that these types really believe they have a higher intellect because of their "education"...but I'll let you into a secret...most people that struggle through life are often a lot more savvy in their views than the effete middleclass sprogs of over-paid middle level public sector "workers".

The EU can not be reformed because it is not democratic.

The idea that pumping the economy with millions of low skilled workers is good for the economy is a joke...the economy grows as the population grows ...woopy fucking doo. The middleclass loves to suppress working class wages and travel more in Europe, we all know that...did you know there are now more servants in the UK than during Victorian times, the middleclass social justice warriors love that too.

What you are not taking into account (even assuming those numbers you quoted are correct) is that massively increasing the population pumps the housing market (both buying and rental) increasing costs, increases population density, thus roads become congested and taxes rise to compensate, schooling and health care costs increase etc. The amount of money that someone earns is not the measure of whether they are better off...it is how things combine together in a rapidly increasing population density situation.

Come on man. I went through the effort of citing everything I said. All you've done is speculate without evidence.

Another quick point...the liberal left hates Johnson, he's virtually Hitler to them but it is because he is popular and much of the population despises the "leaders" of the liberal left...Clegg, Cameron, Blair , Brown , Corbyn...what a bunch of cunts.

it is the political liberal left that has caused division and hate in our society. — Chester

..what a bunch of cunts. — Chester

LMAO.

I treat this like twitter not a treatise. I've got a life, I can't spend hours formulating an argument on here.

But they are a bunch of cunts...also a tiny over represented part of the population causing most of the problems...so we can be divisive with them.

Ah I see, you can't provide evidence for your opinions because you've got a life. I appreciate that you're busy and you have constraints on your time, I do not appreciate you equating baseless speculations with sourced statements. Do you even take time to check what you're saying is right?

So you are saying there are no costs to increasing population density? Bear in mind that England is already one of the most crowded parts of Europe...4 times the population density of Germany or France (from what I recall).

:yawn:

Netherlands: 488 people per km squared
UK: 274 people per km2 squared

If you need a cliffnotes of my post:

There's no evidence that immigration has made a difference in the economic status of UK natives.

You're doing the thing where you don't want to respond to a bunch of sourced stuff, so you try and reframe the discussion to ground you're more comfortable on; stuff you don't have to research or fact check, you can just improvise.

Misleading...population density in England is far higher than the UK, population density in se England far higher still. Also Netherlands has its issues with population growth too.

It would be insane to assert that rapidly increasing the population with low skilled workers from different cultures has no effect on wages ,costs and social unity...it is just a fact that increasing supply of labour lowers wages and increasing population density beyond the point where a country can feed itself has costs...including increased costs of housing and travel. Sometimes those costs are indirect so wont show on wages...eg, increase in taxes for roads, schools, hospital etc.

If you leftists think rapid population growth is good for the UK, why not the world ?

Nonono, you introduced the topic:

1) Freedom of movement led to the mass importation of labour, predominately low skilled cheap labour which obviously puts downward pressure on wages and increased pressure on services (schooling ,housing, cultural differences etc etc). The numbers coming in were huge, far bigger than Tony Blair said. Middle class people quite liked it, their cleaners, plumbers, drivers and builders were cheaper. — Chester

You explicitly emphasized the economic impacts of "mass importation"/mass migration from EU countries to the UK on UK natives.

I gave you a sourced argument refuting that claim; there is no evidence of any substantial economic impact (either on lifestyle or employment) on UK natives from EU immigration through the years 1993-2017.

Are you willing to retract the claim? Are you willing to believe that EU migration has had negligible economic impacts on UK natives based on the evidence?

@frank

This looks like a good data driven breakdown of why the UK voted in Brexit the way it did.

No, we don't.

I didn't accuse you of anything, I simply pointed out that the failings of the EU you mention are mythical. You can google each of them and find out yourself if they are genuine issues effecting Britain as a result of being a member of the EU. There are some genuine issues, but they are rarely cited by EU skeptics, for example systemic problems with the common agricultural policy. They usually cite things like immigration and EU corruption, or something to do with fishing. Issues which have been selected by the anti EU propagandists as emotive issues which will spread well and are easily believed and gossiped about by the population.

If the "liberal left" are dying as a political force, then what's the problem? They will soon loose their power and influence and not be a problem anymore. Oh wait a minute, they have no power and have little influence. Again you are trying to dump problems and issues wrong in the country on a powerless group, to distract any focus on the political grouping which has been in power and presided over all this hollowing out of society, running down of services, the failures in the housing crisis, the rise of populism and this divisive Brexit nightmare.

It's not their fault (the liberal left), it's all the fault of the Tory's. Got it?

Interestingly you claim to know that I am some kind of privelidged academic middle class person who doesn't know how the other half lives. You couldn't be further from the truth. I guarantee that my background is more working class than yours. I am a tradesman with no academic training and I come from four generations of Irish navies who lived in the slums of Huddersfield.

I generally tend to feel that governments will find a way to make pretty much anything work and come out the other side, basically because that's their job. So I didn't vote in the referendum because really I don't think that a huge difference will be seen in the long run leave or remain, at least not in most people's lives anyway.