The Enz are from across the ditch. — Banno
Agreed, but what I was trying to quantify was connectedness, but in a manner which included urban sprawl (so hub distances or connectivity measures wouldn't quite capture it). Voronoi meshes will take into account the open spaces, but it will do so in a way which biases in favour of accounting for network links (roads and railway). A single road connecting two urban areas will double the number of meshes relative to the same area without a road. — Isaac
I'm sure there are better ways of doing it, but I think the impact of a single road captures connectivity in a way which outweighs the bias toward open space. If it didn't, then France (good network but low population density) would come out lower than UK (higher population density but crap networks).
Have you got any ideas as to how we might better capture the degree of connectedness? — Isaac
If we find more evidence of huge numbers of people with antibodies, indicating a much higher proportion of asymptomatic cases than originally thought, for example, that would suggest when we come off lockdown, in the absence of a vaccine, we're going to end up in herd immunity territory anyway and the Swedish model of mostly voluntary distancing might look like a better idea than a straight comparison with its neighbours currently suggests. — Baden
Huge areas have virtually nothing in them. So I'm not so surprised that the UK is weird on a landscape fragmentation measure. — fdrake
The measure's also very local; it's not going to measure international connectivity or commuting/travel intensity within or between countries. — fdrake
Something based on a population movement network, maybe?. The virus spreads along the interaction networks of people, so a decent connectivity measure for covid probably wants to track an interaction network rather than something that reflects land geometry. — fdrake
If I were Google I'd probably have a gigantic inter-and-intra national population flow database that spanned the globe and had second to second resolution. And I'd be keeping that quiet. — fdrake
kickboxing with a mask on? This virus can be transmitted "airborne", so by little water droplets that float on air currents.
Can't you kickbox at home until they have a vaccine? — frank
Not classified but marked “for official use only,” the DHS analysis states that, while downplaying the severity of the coronavirus, China increased imports and decreased exports of medical supplies. It attempted to cover up doing so by “denying there were export restrictions and obfuscating and delaying provision of its trade data,” the analysis states.
The report also says China held off informing the World Health Organization that the coronavirus “was a contagion” for much of January so it could order medical supplies from abroad — and that its imports of face masks and surgical gowns and gloves increased sharply.
Those conclusions are based on the 95% probability that China’s changes in imports and export behavior were not within normal range, according to the report.
China informed the WHO of the outbreak on Dec. 31. It contacted the U.S. Centers for Disease Control on Jan. 3 and publicly identified the pathogen as a novel coronavirus on Jan. 8.
Chinese officials muffled doctors who warned about the virus early on and repeatedly downplayed the threat of the outbreak. However, many of the Chinese government’s missteps appear to have been due to bureaucratic hurdles, tight controls on information and officials hesitant to report bad news. There is no public evidence to suggest it was an intentional plot to buy up the world’s medical supplies.
There's new evidence that the coronavirus may have been in France weeks earlier than was previously thought.
Doctors at a Paris hospital say they've found evidence that one patient admitted in December was infected with Covid-19. If verified, this finding would show that the virus was already circulating in Europe at that time -- well before the first known cases were diagnosed in France or hotspot Italy.
"Covid-19 was already spreading in France in late December 2019, a month before the official first cases in the country," the team at Groupe Hospitalier Paris Seine in Saint-Denis wrote in a study published Sunday in the International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents.
The first official reports of Covid-19 in France were reported on Jan. 24, in two people who had a history of travel to Wuhan, China.
Fox is televised excrement lol. Like, if you put an actual, live picture of a freshly laid out warm turd on TV and labelled it 'Fox', you wouldn't be able to tell the difference. — StreetlightX
Time for everyone to look to their affairs — tim wood
Pay for Medicare for All through short-term loans from the Federal Reserve. Brilliant. Why has no one thought of that? — NOS4A2
We already have slid to an economic downturn, a depression.I'm starting to wonder if we're going to slide into a great depression.
Thoughts? — frank
Dr Mike Ryan, the WHO's top emergencies expert, was asked about Sweden's strategy of shunning lockdowns and allowing most schools and businesses to remain open, told a virtual news conference on Wednesday: "If we are to reach a 'new normal', in many ways Sweden represents a future model."
Scenario 1: The first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a 1- to 2-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021. The occurrence of these waves may vary geographically and may depend on what mitigation measures are in place and how they are eased. Depending on the height of the wave peaks, this scenario could require periodic reinstitution and subsequent relaxation of mitigation measures.
Scenario 2: The first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020 and one or more smaller subsequent waves in 2021. This pattern will require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. This pattern is similar to what was seen with the 1918-19 pandemic. During that pandemic, a small wave began in March 1918 and subsided during the summer months. A much larger peak then occurred in the fall of 1918. A third peak occurred during the winter and spring of 1919; that wave subsided in the summer of 1919, signaling the end of the pandemic. The 1957-58 pandemic followed a similar pattern, with a smaller spring wave followed by a much larger fall wave (Saunders-Hastings 2016). Successive smaller waves continued to occur for several years. The 2009-10 pandemic also followed a pattern of a spring wave followed by a larger fall wave.
Scenario 3: The first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and case occurrence, but without a clear wave pattern. Again, this pattern may vary somewhat geographically and may be influenced by the degree of mitigation measures in place in various areas. While this third pattern was not seen with past influenza pandemics, it remains a possibility for COVID-19. This third scenario likely would not require the reinstitution of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur.
Whichever scenario the pandemic follows (assuming at least some level of ongoing mitigation measures), we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant COVID-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas. As the pandemic wanes, it is likely that SARS-CoV-2 will continue to circulate in the human population and will synchronize to a seasonal pattern with diminished severity over time, as with other less pathogenic coronaviruses, such as the betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1, (Kissler 2020) and past pandemic influenza viruses have done.
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