Hm. That's much more thorough than my prior understanding of it ie. "If a thing seems either more or less likely than it probably is." Not flawless in any way but can definitely see how using it is a very reasonable compromise between accuracy and time saved. Before reading this I'dve thought it and 'common sense' were interchangeable. Thanks!

Wondering something. An example.

Say you're sitting at home and don't get many visitors. It's late in the afternoon and you hear a knock at the door. Who's behind the door? You know this is around the time the mail services deliver and you ordered a package recently. Is it the deliveryman with your package or an old friend who decided to stop by out of nowhere. Easy to assume to former and it's very likely you'd be correct. Not guaranteed of course until you open the door. Would you say there are any parallels to Schrodinger's cat?

I'm gathering it's about reduction of assumption in a hypothesis to increase the likelihood of it being correct.

Say you do get visitors very often. I don't know maybe you're a drug dealer or something. :)

Your good friend said he would be stopping by for a few beers in an hour or two and it's been just about that long. You hear a knock at that door. Who's there? Is it your good friend, wearing white tennis shoes, with jeans that have a rip above the right knee, holding a case of imported beer, with a brand new tattoo he just got of a guitar? Or is it some guy wanting to buy drugs? Due to the excess of specific assumptions regarding the former, the latter is now most likely. Like the first example, you won't know for sure until after you've opened the door.

Am I understanding this well enough?

Am I understanding this well enough? — Outlander

In my eyes, yes. There's a high probability that at least one of your expectations will not be met.