Of course, we must take into account everything we deem relevant in the current condition, including the subjective state of our mind, to make an estimate of what is reasonably probable, but all we can achieve is an expression of probability. How does probability relate to truth? There’s a one in six chance of rolling a six. That means, if I role the die six hundred times I may collect a hundred sixes, or maybe 99, or 101. It’s likely to be around 100 but the result may be anywhere from 0 to 600. There is no truth to be found when estimating what might happen, but the expression of probability (1/6) is a truth since it’s an expression of the shape of the die as it exists right now.
Likewise, the much more complicated probability concerning your next sentence, if it is to be objectively true, it must reflect all present relevant elements. (The ones you mentioned seem relevant and yes, you must also understand how they are connected to a likely outcome.) An estimate of the probability of a future event, as far as it is objectively true, is a correct assessment of the current state of affairs. — Congau
If you were to actually particularize it and ask about, say, absolute truth or objectivity in the context of game strategy the discussion becomes a little more honed and insightful. — BitconnectCarlos
Can’t any probability in principle be expressed as a numerical value? We do it very inaccurately, of course. We say a great chance or a small chance, but that suggests that it could conceivably be translated into a percentage. 90% = very probable, 99% = almost certain. It doesn’t make it more meaningful and the numbers suggest an accuracy that we don’t possess, but it can be done in principle. If the probability for x to happen is greater than for y to happen, that already indicates the same principle as a percentage.Probability in quantum mechanics isn’t a numerical value such as a percentage. It’s an irreducible equation, which in a non-mathematical sense is an expression of a relationship. It is the relationship that is true, regardless of what value we attribute to each variable. — Possibility
It’s not so much that “now” is more objective, and “here” or “there” certainly makes no difference for objectivity. Anything in the past, no matter how distant, is as objective as anything presently existing.You define ‘truth’ as what exists ‘right now’, but your perspective of ‘right now’ or the ‘present’ is necessarily subjective, so your understanding of truth is relative to your temporal location. Objective truth is what exists, full stop - there is no objective sense of ‘now’ or ‘here’ as distinct from ‘then’ or ‘there’. — Possibility
Can’t any probability in principle be expressed as a numerical value? We do it very inaccurately, of course. We say a great chance or a small chance, but that suggests that it could conceivably be translated into a percentage. 90% = very probable, 99% = almost certain. It doesn’t make it more meaningful and the numbers suggest an accuracy that we don’t possess, but it can be done in principle. If the probability for x to happen is greater than for y to happen, that already indicates the same principle as a percentage. — Congau
It’s not so much that “now” is more objective, and “here” or “there” certainly makes no difference for objectivity. Anything in the past, no matter how distant, is as objective as anything presently existing. — Congau
A believer in determinism can logically claim that the future is objectively existent. For him it wouldn’t really make sense to talk about probability; everything is 100% or 0%, even the chance of rolling a six. He may give it a percentage estimate to express his ignorance, though (there’s a 17% chance of rolling a six) just like we may give a percentage estimate to express our uncertainty about something in the past. (I’m quite sure it really happened, 90% sure) but that is not to be confused with an expression of probability.
Probability as future occurrence cannot be an expression of truth since that would suggest that truth can be manifold, but probability as rooted in the present is one (one state of affairs) — Congau
Please explain. Distance between here and there only refers to the relationship between subject and object. When something is objective, there is no subject and no distance, right? The relativity of time and space also excludes an intrinsic meaning of distance, doesn’t it?that’s where I think the relativity of spacetime would disagree with you. At a certain distance, here or there does make a difference for objectivity. — Possibility
Right. That’s not about probability only about individual uncertainty, and as such it is a piece of psychology and therefore it has objective truth to it. If that’s what you’re saying, I agree. The state of someone’s mind is an objective truth (although not available for anyone else). “I’m 90% sure it happened yesterday” and “I’m 90% sure it will happen tomorrow” are equivalent as a statement about objective truth. The truth condition is referring to the mind of this “I” and not to the event in question.So when we say ‘I’m 90% sure it really happened’, this is not really probability, is it? It’s an expression of subjective uncertainty towards an event occurring in relation to a limited perception of potentiality. Still, as such it remains an expression of truth from that limited position. There is no objective reason why this can’t be the same for future events. — Possibility
The accuracy of that 90% estimate is not dependent on anything outside of you. You may have had a dream or you may be intoxicated, you have that level of certainty whatever caused it. Of course, I would trust you prediction more if I knew you were basing it on observation and knowledge of familiar patterns and the more exhaustive the more trustworthy, but the probability as such cannot reach an accurate estimate when the potential information is infinite. The chance of rolling a six is 1/6 and that is a true and accurate estimate when occurring in clinical isolation (just assuming that necessary preconditions, like intention to roll, are already met) but the kind of potentiality you are talking about aims at incorporating as much information as possible, and of course the amount of information can never be exhaustive so the accuracy of the prediction can never be definite, that is to say objective. It depends on how much information you, the subject, have been able to collect. “This complex relation, leaving nothing out, is what is objectively true”, you say, but that can’t exist even in theory since the complexity of the relation is literally infinite.I can say ‘I’m 90% sure it will happen tomorrow’ based not just on what I have observed/measured, but also informed by familiar patterns of relative probability among countless possibilities. That is an expression of subjective uncertainty towards an event occurring in relation to my limited perception of potentiality. It is an expression of potential truth from my limited position, and exists in the potential future relative to that position. This complex relation, leaving nothing out, is what is objectively true. — Possibility
It defies basic logic to think of truth as manifold. Either A is true, or A is not true and switching to future tense makes no difference: Either A will happen, or A will not happen; both can’t be true.Why can’t truth be manifold? The way I see it, the future is objectively existent, but as one of countless possibilities — Possibility
It defies basic logic to think of truth as manifold. Either A is true, or A is not true and switching to future tense makes no difference: Either A will happen, or A will not happen; both can’t be true.
Sure, expressed as a possibility they are not mutually exclusive. A may happen, and A may not happen.
But “may” and “may not” don’t constitute separate truths. In fact they are both included in the exact same truth condition. Saying “A may happen” not only does not exclude “A may not happen”, it implies it. If it is true that A may happen, it follows logically that A may not happen.
Possibility must be understood as one, covering one area of possible events. Imagine a circle: inside the circle there are an infinite number of points representing possible events distinguished from each other by tiny details, but the mathematical point is non-existent as such, only the area exists, and it is one. Outside the circle is the rest of the universe: it represents everything that cannot possibly happen; it is what is not true.
For the future there is only one truth, what is possible, and that one truth is existent as one in the present. — Congau
You define ‘truth’ as what exists ‘right now’, but your perspective of ‘right now’ or the ‘present’ is necessarily subjective, so your understanding of truth is relative to your temporal location. Objective truth is what exists, full stop - there is no objective sense of ‘now’ or ‘here’ as distinct from ‘then’ or ‘there’. — Possibility
It’s not so much that “now” is more objective, and “here” or “there” certainly makes no difference for objectivity. Anything in the past, no matter how distant, is as objective as anything presently existing. — Congau
that’s where I think the relativity of spacetime would disagree with you. At a certain distance, here or there does make a difference for objectivity.
— Possibility
Please explain. Distance between here and there only refers to the relationship between subject and object. When something is objective, there is no subject and no distance, right? The relativity of time and space also excludes an intrinsic meaning of distance, doesn’t it? — Congau
Right. That’s not about probability only about individual uncertainty, and as such it is a piece of psychology and therefore it has objective truth to it. If that’s what you’re saying, I agree. The state of someone’s mind is an objective truth (although not available for anyone else). “I’m 90% sure it happened yesterday” and “I’m 90% sure it will happen tomorrow” are equivalent as a statement about objective truth. The truth condition is referring to the mind of this “I” and not to the event in question. — Congau
The accuracy of that 90% estimate is not dependent on anything outside of you. You may have had a dream or you may be intoxicated, you have that level of certainty whatever caused it. Of course, I would trust you prediction more if I knew you were basing it on observation and knowledge of familiar patterns and the more exhaustive the more trustworthy, but the probability as such cannot reach an accurate estimate when the potential information is infinite. The chance of rolling a six is 1/6 and that is a true and accurate estimate when occurring in clinical isolation (just assuming that necessary preconditions, like intention to roll, are already met) but the kind of potentiality you are talking about aims at incorporating as much information as possible, and of course the amount of information can never be exhaustive so the accuracy of the prediction can never be definite, that is to say objective. It depends on how much information you, the subject, have been able to collect. — Congau
“This complex relation, leaving nothing out, is what is objectively true”, you say, but that can’t exist even in theory since the complexity of the relation is literally infinite. — Congau
The only truth in a question of possibility is what can happen and that is determined by nature. A nasturtium seed cannot become an apple tree, but John Smith can become the king of France. In social science pretty much anything is potentially true as long as it doesn’t contradict the possibilities of nature and formal logic.
All sciences deal with truth and if a social scientist takes it upon himself to investigate John Smith’s royal potential, he aims at producing a truth statement. His conclusion, for example one in a billion, is a truth statement. It claims to have investigated all normal paths to royalty and have found them blocked. The procedure is the same as for natural science, only that there’s an infinity of contingencies that can never be exhausted, therefore one is left with an expression of probability.
But how are we ever to distinguish the truth in a statement of probability. What’s the difference between one in a billion and fifty/fifty? Whatever happens in either case doesn’t prove anything. It may rain tomorrow and John Smith may become the king of France, and those statements are equally true. Only when looking at the state of things as they now are (the actuality) does the probability express a truth. In the potential as directing towards the future, there is no truth. — Congau
Looking at the etymology of this word can only lead us astray. Why a certain sound has come to represent a certain concept is philologically interesting and in a few cases, but far from all, it may tell us something about human psychology (most of the time it’s a result of a rather arbitrary development). In philosophy, however, it is desirable to strive for pure concepts that are untainted by cultural connotations of words. That is often not possible, lamentably, but in the case of this concept “true” I’d say it is. Any language would have a concept of it even if there may not be an exact one to one translation of the English “true” in all languages. The philosophically reductive concept refers to what is correct and really existent as opposed to what is incorrect, a lie and a phantasy.The etymology of the word ‘true’ suggests a gradual broadening of its definition to expand the concept in relation to meaning. Initially it meant ‘loyal and steadfast’, ‘honest’, or ‘faithful’. Later, the concept expanded, and the definition broadened to ‘accurate or exact’ in terms of relative positioning or direction. — Possibility
How can you call logic a subjective constraint? Two plus two equals four whatever anyone thinks or whether there is anyone there to think at all.If, however, you believe that an objective truth exists, then its objectivity would need to be free of all subjective constraints including logic, actuality and time. In this sense, the meaning of objective truth is an undifferentiated relation to objective reality. Truth is reality. — Possibility
It is certainly not a position. It is not even a view. Your “objectivity” is one of ever-changing perspectives, is it? It’s a mixture of meaning from all possible and impossible standpoints, but there’s always some standpoint, so for you objectivity seems to be based on subjectivity. You disregard logic since all subjective observers are not logical, and their view must also be taken into account. You mix all possible positions and conclude that reality is not viewed from a position.The problem as I see it, though, is that for ‘reality’ to have any meaning for you, it must be viewed from a position. So at this point, you will continue to argue that objective truth is a position, and we will go around in circles again. You’re unable (or unwilling) to break free of logic, actuality or time enough to consider the possible existence of an undifferentiated relation. It’s meaningless, yes - it exists and doesn’t exist. I recognise that this makes no sense to you, but this is where we need to be in order to understand the pure possibility of objectivity. It’s essentially a koan. — Possibility
Objectivity is exactly the idea of something being pulled away from all messy relations and existing alone and in itself. — Congau
It is certainly not a position. It is not even a view. Your “objectivity” is one of ever-changing perspectives, is it? It’s a mixture of meaning from all possible and impossible standpoints, but there’s always some standpoint, so for you objectivity seems to be based on subjectivity. You disregard logic since all subjective observers are not logical, and their view must also be taken into account. You mix all possible positions and conclude that reality is not viewed from a position. — Congau
That is probably referring to the scientific method.A thing is objective if it is arrived at through the intersubjective process of critical consensus (Popper) — Pantagruel
That would be the practical meaning of objectivity. A common reference point is sufficient in our daily understanding of reality. We don’t have to go all the way back to a philosophical thing in itself every time we identify a common object. “This is a computer” we say in our social milieu. “This is a typewriter with a tv screen” one might say in another. Both are objectively true, although there is one underlying objectivity.A thing is objective if it forms a part of the essential shared social milieu (Mead). — Pantagruel
Sorry, I should have said downplaying logic.I’m not disregarding logic, only acknowledging its limited position. — Possibility
That is probably referring to the scientific method. — Congau
Sorry, I should have said downplaying logic.
But again, I don’t understand how you can do that. Anything that is true must be logical. The law of non-contradiction just can’t be violated. How can you call that a mere "subjective constraint"? — Congau
“The view from nowhere” is quite non-sensical because it tries to include two contradictory ideas. To make something objective we have to do away with any idea of “a view”; there is no position. Logic is not a position, it is eternal reality; it exists without anyone looking at anything from anywhere.
If you admit that it is meaningless, how can you insist on its objective existence? Objectivity is exactly the idea of something being pulled away from all messy relations and existing alone and in itself. The moment something depends on something else to be conceptualized as existing, it is not objective. “It is soft” – depending on something being hard and a person judging. “Soft” is meaningless in itself – not objective. — Congau
We must distinguish between the method of reaching an idea of what the objective truth might be and objective truth itself. Sure, critical consensus is one important way to reach a semblance of certainty, but whatever it is we are investigating would have been there even if no one had bothered to look at it. Proper objectivity is not related to any subject; no observer at all. Of course, then we can’t really even talk about it, so the moment we start investigating we are in effect giving up the knowledge of total objectivity.There are two ways we can ‘do away with the idea of “a view”’: we can reduce the available information by ignoring, isolating or excluding anything that suggests the possibility of an alternative view; OR we can strive to include all possible alternative views. As Pantagruel suggests, objectivity is inclusive of intersubjective process and critical consensus. What you’re referring to is the reductive process that inevitably accompanies critical consensus in order to maximise certainty. My argument is that this critical consensus and accompanying reduction of information, while necessarily practical, also detracts from its claim to objectivity. — Possibility
the reductive process that inevitably accompanies critical consensus in order to maximise certainty — Possibility
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