Georgia is going to Trump, — Benkei

It's close so I wouldn't call it out. Trump's lead has dwindled to 13K and alot of the remaining votes are in blue counties including Atlanta. It seems likely that there will be a recount and that's not even getting into the Senate runoffs. Georgia is tight.

Yesterday I thought Trump had Georgia but yeah now I'm not so sure. Would be pretty cool to see a lone blue island in a sea of red.

Given how close the race is, then there seems to be a shot at the Democrats winning the Senate as well since it seems like the voter base is there. If the SCOTUS overrules the ACA following the election then hopefully that will send a clear message to turn out in the special election. It's a longshot though but Georgia for Biden was also a longshot as well.

Something like this could be anticipated:

It's close so I wouldn't call it out. Trump's lead has dwindled to 13K and alot of the remaining votes are in blue counties including Atlanta. It seems likely that there will be a recount and that's not even getting into the Senate runoffs. Georgia is tight. — Mr Bee

I take great pride in the fact that my home state is holding up a national election with global ramifications so that the crackerjack poll workers can search every nook and cranny for ballots.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and I honestly don't believe there is meaningful elections fraud, but I do wonder what makes this process so protracted. Other than in Alaska where they have to dogsled ballots from remote villages, I'm not sure why it takes so long to do things in Atlanta.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and I honestly don't believe there is meaningful elections fraud, but I do wonder what makes this process so protracted. Other than in Alaska where they have to dogsled ballots from remote villages, I'm not sure why it takes so long to do things in Atlanta. — Hanover

It's not just Georgia. We're also waiting on a bunch of other states. As for why the election laws are made this way? Apparently the GOP legislatures in these states made it so that people can't count the ballots prior to the election when they're received, forcing this slow and agonizing process where Trump can question the results. And oddly enough it's the right that also chooses to protest and either call for the votes to be counted faster (in states where Biden is leading) or stop them (in states where Trump is), on top of the multiple lawsuits that they have sent to the courts as well, hampering the counting process even further. Just another one of the ways which Republicans complicate the election system.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and I honestly don't believe there is meaningful elections fraud, but I do wonder what makes this process so protracted. Other than in Alaska where they have to dogsled ballots from remote villages, I'm not sure why it takes so long to do things in Atlanta. — Hanover

Uh, well, in a large country holding national elections ought to be a well coordinated collective effort.

But for some reason, some states will get their last votes I guess next week. Then there's the recounts and the lawsuits, so enjoy while it lasts!

The election is going to Biden. I think that's pretty clear now. Hardly a mandate, but a good thing.

The rest is pretty much a sign that Democrats need to put aside conventional wisdom and start running candidates that excite people. They need to start putting their resources behind such people, just as the Republican party (and media) did with Trump. Imagine if they had? They'd have had a Bernie Sanders as president -- who did far better with Latinos. Given that all pundits and all the conventional wisdom (and polling), Biden has pulled it off mainly because people have grown weary of Trump. And that's all.

Now with Trump out of the way, but the Senate in GOP hands, and the House even closer in power, and the state legislatures remaining fairly the same -- I see next to nothing getting done legislatively. As far as the judiciary -- I imagine it'll be 2 more years (at least) of GOP stonewalling all nominations to the courts. Which is very irritating.

By the way, what do they do with the foot? — Merkwurdichliebe

Museum of natural history, foot section.

Georgia is going to Trump — Benkei

Just saw this. Biden is still favoured to win Georgia. It'll be very close though.

I do wonder what makes this process so protracted. — Hanover

Republicans would not let many states count mail-ins before the election for a start. Also, in Georgia, this is the first time in years they've been working from paper.

Anyway, it will likely be over soon when Pennsylvania reports a Biden win.

Fox is calling Arizona for Biden, looks like they've dumped Trump.

Museum of natural history, foot section. — frank

If memory serves me, that's in the basement near the food court

Apparently the GOP legislatures in these states made it so that people can't count the ballots prior to the election when they're received, forcing this slow and agonizing process where Trump can question the results. — Mr Bee

There've always been delays for one reason or the other. This is just the problem du jour. Bush/Gore was hanging chads.

It takes
a really
long
time
to
count
all
the
votes
in
Nevada.

Also
only
1
2
3
4
5
6
Votes

There's an infinite sequence between each one. That's why it takes so loooooooong.

Must be.

Last night around sunset I took a walk around a nice neighborhood with my girlfriend, discussing the election as we went. As we passed a house with a “this is Trump country” sign on its lawn, I thought to myself “I’m glad I live in this sleepy little town where I don’t have to worry about the possibility of violent outbursts over the election results”.

And then from inside that house came shouts of “fucking Joe Biden and his fucking she-n*gg*r”, and as we walked quickly away more shouts of “Biden’s a fucking white n*gg*r is what he is” and such.

Sigh.

These do not look probable to change, in terms of random deviations in a non-biased model, with the remaining votes in question (though it is possible). — boethius

You haven't followed the mail-in vote saga have you? Trump encouraged his supporters to vote in person on election day, insinuating that he would declare mail-in votes as invalid. Biden supporters with respect for COVID distancing practices were more inclined toward mailing in. The result is a huge disproportion of Biden votes in mailed in votes, now being counted, especially evident in Pennsylvania.

Where do you live again?

Ojai Valley, CA.

I don't know that you can overstate how badly the Dems lost on Tuesday, even if Biden wins.

The strategic position that the GOP is now in is perfect. Completely perfect. Flawless. And that is with a Biden win. The set up for the 2022 and 2024 elections is astounding. Had Trump won, even with increased gains from even more gerrymandering there would still have been a backlash in 2022 against the GOP. Now that backlash will be against the Dems but at a much bigger scale. And the GOP will be better positioned for the midterms than perhaps any party at any midterm ever. Seriously. This could be a midterm swing that approaches 1894 levels.

Seeing things align with such amazing symmetry has to make one wonder if there was deliberate orchestration with this exact end in mind. A barely won Biden win with the Dems otherwise in a nosedive and losing on every other front. Yet the GOP still has them there as the foil.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/statehouse-elections-2020-434108

I don't know that you can overstate how badly the Dems lost on Tuesday, even if Biden wins. — Baphomet

People need to stop repeating this line. It's being bandied around everywhere. People need to realise the USA is full of bigoted Cunts who voted for Trump. Thankfully not all of them are of this ilk though.

People need to realise the USA is full of bigoted Cunts who voted for Trump. Thankfully not all of them are of this ilk though. — The Opposite

You are correct, it is also full of bigoted Cunts who voted for Biden. And, also full of bigoted Cunts that voted third party, or abstained.

, does the following look right/wrong to you?

1. Trump lies and bullshits, followers don't hold him accountable, don't care
2. others typically encourage following covid-19 protocols, including Biden
3. on election day Trump encourages his followers to vote in person
4. Biden's supporters more likely to mail in votes following covid-19 protocols
5. Trump would know 4 (reasonable assumption)
6. come time to count mail-in votes, Trump fights tooth and nail to invalidate them, thus denying a number of voters (4)
7. a number of Trump followers (1) go look for a fight where mail-in votes are counted

And a familiar pattern is seen, Trump at the center, possibly engineered to "steal the election" in this case, ironically, since that's what Biden is accused of, or just another circus act to grab some attention...

• viruses don't care about Trump's bullshit
• Trump Administration's Mishandling of the Coronavirus Response by Congresswoman Jackie Speier
• US election 2020: Three viral vote claims fact-checked by BBC
• in addition to lying and bullshitting, Trump also divides and induces what follows from that

So - this would be incredible if not so predictable, but the democrats are already beginning to learn the exact opposite lessons from what they should be learning. First, on the democrat 'strategy' of trying to appeal to republican voters:

"Now survey data show the strategy epically failed, as Trump actually garnered even more support from GOP voters than in 2016. Indeed, Edison Research exit polls on Tuesday found that 93 percent of Republican voters supported Trump — three percentage points higher than in 2016, according to numbers from the same firm. The takeaway: There may be a lot of so-called “Never Trump Republicans” promoted in the media and in politics, but “Never Trump Republicans” are not a statistically significant group of voters anywhere in America. They basically do not exist anywhere outside of the Washington Beltway or cable news green rooms -- and after tonight’s results, we shouldn’t have to see them on TV or even see their tweets ever again".

https://www.dailyposter.com/p/six-takeaways-from-election-night

And yet:

"[Democratic] Party leaders had expressed certainty that Trump’s divisiveness and mishandling of the pandemic would help them expand their majority with wins in GOP-held districts — and yet they lost at least a half-dozen seats and failed to retake the Senate. The explanation laid out by centrists, according to multiple people who were on the call and spoke on the condition of anonymity, is that Republicans were easily able to paint them all as socialists and radical leftists who endorse far-left positions such as defunding the police."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-democrats-pelosi-election/2020/11/05/1ddae5ca-1f6e-11eb-90dd-abd0f7086a91_story.html [paywalled].

I.e. despite the results showing that trying to win over GOP voters is a complete failure, these fucking morons reckon the way to go is to push even harder in this direction.

You haven't followed the mail-in vote saga have you? Trump encouraged his supporters to vote in person on election day, insinuating that he would declare mail-in votes as invalid. Biden supporters with respect for COVID distancing practices were more inclined toward mailing in. The result is a huge disproportion of Biden votes in mailed in votes, now being counted, especially evident in Pennsylvania. — Metaphysician Undercover

Although there's always the possibility for a late surprise, most election analysts are pretty good at forecasting votes from certain demographics based on the remaining vote. Alot of the remaining vote is from urban areas and are mail-in. Thus far in this election alone, they've been heavily democratic, — Mr Bee

All I am pointing out is "there's always the possibility for a late surprise". The theory that late counting heavily favours Biden makes sense for the reasons pointed out, and also is retrospectively true in the large catch-ups we're already seen. I am simply pointing out that we cannot therefore conclude this effect will put Biden over the line in places like Pennsylvanian or Goergia nor that it is true for all the late vote counting, such as Nevada. Late counting may favour Biden but there maybe some factor that makes late-late-late counting suddenly favour Trump; if that happens, every forecaster for Biden will simply say "oh, well, we didn't know about this factor, but it makes sense because x, y, z things peculiar to these states and counties and counting protocols and logistics, put a bunch of Trump votes at the very end". For instance, there could be a tranche of a bunch of oversees military votes that favour Trump right at the very end; if this happens, forecasters will just say "yep, makes sense". If that doesn't happen and Biden wins all the close counts with the mail in, we'll also say "yep, makes sense".

We simply don't have enough information about the current situation to say Biden will win with near certainty. But I think you both agree with that. I think we all agree it is close.

The situation is similar to concluding it will rain the next minute because it's raining now; probably true, but the longer the time span we consider the less this reasoning holds as each minute there is some probability it stops raining and this probability accumulates over time. Maybe votes have been raining for Biden recently, but the rain suddenly stops and we all say "yeah, that happens too".

But, as I have said, the numbers look good for Biden right now. I'm not arguing there's some counter-intuitive thing happening that makes Trump the favourite. I'd rather be in Biden's position in terms of the numbers, but I'd rather be in Trump's position in terms of the Supreme court, which I believe could hand the election to Trump if the GOP machinery got in full swing to make that happen. However, the GOP may not want to play the supreme court hand, since as @Baphomet eloquently puts it:

A barely won Biden win with the Dems otherwise in a nosedive and losing on every other front. Yet the GOP still has them there as the foil. — Baphomet

Which I have also concluded in my analysis is the best situation for the GOP. Best let Dem's try fix the mess of the pandemic with only band-aid solutions the GOP can ideologically rail against, while their base ups the cult-crazy levels, all while pointing to the the inevitable failure due to GOP undermining any effective policy and ensuring that failure definitely happens (and weak democrats pointing to crumbs the GOP tosses them as some sort of victory while refusing any real conflict with the GOP because their donors, who are the same people, rather peace and civility). Of course, I'm fairly certain Trump does have leverage against his frenemies, perhaps enough for the GOP spin machine to dig up / invent the needed pretexts and get some SCOTUS action underway. Time will tell. At the moment, the GOP seems to be hedging its bets and distancing with Trump, but that could change overnight if the right threats are delivered to the right people, and if those threats are credible enough. We have yet to see the last of Trump.

665 votes in Georgia difference in favour of Trump and shrinking but also armed forces votes still incoming.

I agree that currently the remaining vote looks like it will put Biden over the top barring some last minute surprise, but with regards to your point about the SCOTUS, it looks like it's becoming increasingly unlikely since the GOP looks set to drop Trump like a rock so they may not think it worth it to keep him.

Then again, this election did show that alot of the electorate, including a large portion of Republicans, still value Trumpism, so it does put the future identity of the party into question. Trump is gonna remember who abandoned him this election cycle and he may throw a wrench into the party's plans to go back to the Romney-type politicians. And honestly I'd say the same uncertainty applies to the Democrats as well, since even if they do win they almost lost to an idiot reality TV show host (again) so perhaps they should do some soul searching too. In a way, 2020 is just 2012 all over again with 2024 being a change year like 2016, but hopefully next time, it won't end up the same way.

Jeez just flip already. It almost feels like the media and the states counting the votes are intentionally withholding their results because they know that if they were the ones who called the race then they will be the target of Trump and his violent supporters. Otherwise Fox and AP would've called NV and the election already (since they already called AZ for Biden).