I could be wrong and he's more of a self-destructive ideologue, but I've seen nothing to change my mind yet. — Baden

He's not personally affected by Brexit so there's nothing destructive about it. Blair is still around and making money despite giving support to the Iraqi war. It's just a job and since he's not there for the best interest of the country but because he craved power this will blow up. He doesn't care, like most Brexiteers.

I could be wrong and he's more of a self-destructive ideologue, but I've seen nothing to change my mind yet. — Baden

No way. Boris is much more like Trump. He will do whatever it takes to hold on to power. If that means contradicting past policies, snubbing the right wingers in his party - as long as he thinks the tabloid readers see him as Winston Churchill - the saviour of Britain - and vote for him next time, he'll do it.

The analyisis now seems to be that the fisheries differences can be managed over time, and the level playing field simply needs an independent body to rule on future law changes by either party that lead to a divergance. This is not uncommon in trade agreements. So a deal is there to be done if both sides want one. Does Boris want one or the disaster of trade tariffs? Could he sell the 'taking back control' platitude to voters who'll see wholesale price rises, job losses and shortages in shops next year? No. But with even a compromise deal he'll still be able to sell Brexit itself as 'taking back control'. Some Brexiteers will moan he's sold out but they won't matter any more - certainly not by the time of the next election. That will do for Boris..

I’m not so optimistic, but let’s see what happens tonight. Will Boris hand her the shit hamburger, or roll over to have his tummy tickled.

As before the UK and the EU can’t square the circle. I remember the look on Johnson’s and Gove’s faces the morning after the referendum. You could see in those faces that they were lost and dumbfounded, as to what they were to do next and what they were going to have to spend the next few years trying to deliver. Between then and now the Conservative party has been going around in circles, fighting amongst themselves, becoming more and more chaotic, to the point now where the Prime Minister has humiliated himself in front of the EU leaders professing cakism.

The emperor has no clothes.

I’m not so optimistic, but let’s see what happens tonight. Will Boris hand her the shit hamburger, or roll over to have his tummy tickled. — Punshhh

I'm starting to share your pessimism now. Does Boris really think he'll keep the red wall voters Tory with the Rule Britannia crap about sovereignty in the face of tarifs etc? Is he really going to reject any deal rather than risk backing down on sovereignty?
It strikes me that the only reason the fishing issue has not been put to bed already is that the level playing field stand-off on its own would not be enough to satisfy the tabloid readers and Brexiteers Boris is pandering to. To justify no-deal he needs at least 2 good reasons, and 1 of them must be understandable to the layman. So the level of disagreement with the EU is being exagerated for public consumption.
Maybe his Churchill delusion is now overcoming his common sense..

Groundhog day...

The brexiters in the Tory party are a cult with all the warped ideology, (I was there during the eighties and nineties, I saw the ideology spawn and grow within the party). It shouldn’t be a surprise that Johnson has lost any common sense he might have had. It’s a cult with some very wealthy an influential backers. He will have to keep his base happy, or they will turn on him and spit him out. This includes pandering to the right wing mags who can sway the red wall. So he can only go for the hardest clean break Brexit. But it’s an express train about to run out of track, he is doomed just as surely as are the Tory party themselves. The people will not forgive them when they start to feel the pain, it’s the miners strike and the pole tax all rolled into one and then some. With Scottish independence as the cherry on the top.

The reality is looming......

I wonder if Boris's thinking is that to leave with no deal now will mean hardship, but he'll be able to blame some of it on Covid. In 3 years time it'll be water under the bridge and he can trumpet the opportunities of being a free country in the next election campaign. The EU have offered a no tarifs deal now, and only the risk of imposing them later if there's a disagreement about the playing field tilting. That sounds better now, but in the next election campaign amid Tory plans to cut burocracy to increase competitiveness it may harm Tory chances. So Boris is bolstering his own prospects long term. If the country's 2% per year poorer, well he'll say the Brexit vote showed people want freedom more..

Following the bad smell last week (Johnson insulting Von der Leyen and Barnier over dinner), things are smelling rosier now. The mood music is that a deal is beginning to form, both sides have moved a little on level playing field. No mention of fish, as folk say it was never about fish (I doubt that myself). The important development though is that it is now to late for ratification, so some kind of delay process is going to happen along with the contingency plans which the EU had put in place in preparation for no deal. This will be a bare bones set of arrangements to keep planes in the air and lorries moving. Anything agreed in the meantime can be ratified in the new year, although it would take a few months. The EU is talking of 6 months for this to play out.

The upshot of this is that Johnson has now lost control, he has played his last card (unless he has a card hidden up his sleeve with a fish on it). As this process pans out, it will be the EU spoon feeding the UK towards something sensible and the UK will become less and less able to dictate terms.

Expect at some point Johnson to throw a fish out of the Pram when the rabid dogs bite back, but the UK is now powerless and adrift in relation to the EU. And the boil hasn’t been lanced.

I think it's so that even if it's No deal on Jan 1st, the situation could be reviewed soon thereafter. So maybe we'll get a few months of tarifs and a swift reconsideration by both sides in the light of all the problems.
Otherwise, given how far apart and absolute the entrenched positions are, I fail to see how a deal can be reached. The climbdown needed by either side would be too large and humiliating, and would undermine their having pushed the negotiations this far.

Yes, although I would point out that the climb down will have to come from the UK side, because it is they who are not happy with the rules as laid out by the members of the market they are seeking access to. These rules are simple and practical trading terms, whereas the UK position is conflating some vague notion of sovereignty with these conditions, thereby falsely concluding that by agreeing to these rules, the UK will become trapped or enslaved somehow by the EU. This is entirely unreasonable, illogical and stupid.

Yes, although I would point out that the climb down will have to come from the UK side, — Punshhh

Yes, the EU has that clown by the balls. Being a buffoon may work domestically but internationally it makes you roadkill.

Quite.

Interesting interpretation here, suggesting that Johnson is hiding behind the bluster and looking for an opportunity to fold.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/boris-johnson-fold-brexit-negotiations-level-playing-field

Article outlines pretty much exactly how I see things. :up:

I know, but Johnson will be toast, unless he can somehow put the ERG etc on the naughty step. I suspect they have him in a headlock, so they would take him down with them.

Is he a turkey who would vote for Christmas?

Don't know much about the internal dynamics of the ERG, but I suspect at least some of them are sick of this shit too and looking for a face-saving exit (and Johnson has close personal allies there like JRM, so there's that too).

I don't know either, but there are Tory donors to think of, the tabloids and Farige. All of whom are rabid dogs, radicalised.

I wouldn't want to be in his shoes.

Yes, although I would point out that the climb down will have to come from the UK side, because it is they who are not happy with the rules as laid out by the members of the market they are seeking access to. These rules are simple and practical trading terms, whereas the UK position is conflating some vague notion of sovereignty with these conditions, thereby falsely concluding that by agreeing to these rules, the UK will become trapped or enslaved somehow by the EU. This is entirely unreasonable, illogical and stupid. — Punshhh

I don't think you can describe the level-playing-field as trading terms, and that's what the Tories object to. The EU wants to force the UK to follow whatever rules it has now or in future on govt subsidies, environmental, wildlife and labour welfare standards etc. I think the Tory view is bone-headed, but it's an entirely consistent one to insist that these are political matters and that if it's to be a sovereign nation the UK should have complete control of them.

these are political matters and that if it's to be a sovereign nation the UK should have complete control of them. — Tim3003

That’s fine but then there will be tariffs to enter the common market.

The EU wants to force the UK

This is where the problem with sovereignty comes in. The EU is not doing this, the UK is free to adopt its own terms for the interaction it has with other countries. But when it agrees trade deals with those countries it negotiates a set of common terms, which it agrees to abide by.

I agree that some of it could be interpreted as political issues, but they all have affects on trade. Trade deals are very complex because they involve all the ramifications of various standards, regulations, state aid etc.

There is a particular problem evidenced in this negotiation caused by the hostile dishonest, caniving approach by one party, the UK. As a result there is very little trust and the EU, understandably wants every term legally binding. Particularly while the UK government states that it seeks to diverge from the terms when expedient to its own interests.

As one commentator said today, the level playing field is only problematic to a country which intends to lower standards, to deregulate, to diverge. If that country was intending to maintain high standards maintain good regulations and be cooperative with its partners, the level playing field would be no problem at all. There is a sliding scale here which has implications for trade.

There is a particular problem evidenced in this negotiation caused by the hostile dishonest, caniving approach by one party, the UK. As a result there is very little trust and the EU, understandably wants every term legally binding. Particularly while the UK government states that it seeks to diverge from the terms when expedient to its own interests.

As one commentator said today, the level playing field is only problematic to a country which intends to lower standards, to deregulate, to diverge. If that country was intending to maintain high standards maintain good regulations and be cooperative with its partners, the level playing field would be no problem at all. There is a sliding scale here which has implications for trade. — Punshhh

Yes I agree. The UK govt has ruined the relationship with the EU, with that absurd NI lets-break-the-law bill (threat), which it has had to pull at the last minute. And no-one in Brussells trusts the ERG to maintain high standards when given the freedom to lower them.

That's why I said a few messages back that I can't see either side compromising at this late stage. Without trust the EU won't, and Boris cant with the ERG and Brexiteers yapping at his tails. I don't know why the 2 sides are still talking, except for the fact that neither wants to be the one to give up first and take the blame. That short-sightedness is making the Jan 1st cliff-edge even worse. I wonder if they'll carry on over Xmas?!

I sense that the government is getting worried about the chaos of no deal and are looking for a way out. There’s a small chance that the EU might find a way to help them out, but it’s not looking good.

It's coming.

Yes, it looks that there is a way through, but I expect a lot more ping pong yet and the possibility that Johnson will fumble it at the last moment.

Ratification will feature when we reach the new year, as it is to late for full ratification now. So the contingency plans which the EU agreed yesterday will be implemented, unless an extension is agreed, which I doubt. Meaning that the terms become gradually more and more dictated by the EU. Contingency is wafer thin, so there will be a lot of chaos in January even with a deal.

For example, many hauliers are not planning to send any lorries come January.

This one caught me by surprise. Most of the farmers around me grow sugar beet and sell it to a large sugar factory just up the road. I was thinking that these farmers, who mostly voted leave, would be ok after brexit, as there is strong demand for sugar in the UK. But already they’ve been sold down the river following a sweetener of tariffs reductions to start the US trade deal.
https://twitter.com/DPMcBride/status/1339227869957005314

State of the negotiations over the last week. There seems to be a significant deadline tomorrow night Sunday 20th. If a way through doesn’t happen by then, the talks may stall.
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/1219/1185362-brexit-trade-talks/

Hope springs eternal.

There will be a deal, whether one will be reached before Brexit takes effect is another matter.

Yes, but if there is a breakdown over fish it could lead to a protracted period of tit for tat.
This morning Barnier is going back to the EU leaders to float the idea of giving back 25% of access, up from 18% (scaling down over 10 years). I expect he will get a frosty reception.

Meanwhile Johnson would find it a hard sell to accept anything less than 80% ( scaling down over 3 years).

Both sides are unlikely to move any further than that due to the political costs at home. Some people suggest Johnson will fold at the last second, some the the EU will.

Wise folk find either possibility very unlikely.