The sh*t show has started!
All traffic across the channel has been stopped. This is due to the emergence of a virulent strain of the virus in Kent (near the channel crossings). The part of the UK which is going to have to accommodate many thousands of stranded lorries is going into lockdown. Meanwhile parliament has gone home for Christmas and Jacob Rees Mogg has effectively prorogued parliament by introducing strict rules in debate and voting restricting remote access for MPs.

I expect the top of the Conservative party will be either turning on each other, or in a blind panic. While our supply chains are going into catastrophic crisis.

Oh and breaking news, the talks have stalled and there won’t now be a deal by 1st January, meaning we will be going into contingency plans dictated by the EU.

So it looks like the dreaded ‘no-deal Brexit’ has actually come to pass. Media is oddly silent on this fact, if it’s true.

Talks haven’t been officially called off, so there is a small chance of something being agreed, I expect. But somehow I can’t see any way back from here. The way it was phrased when I read it was that yesterday was the deadline for any deal being implemented by 1st of January, so a period of no deal is inevitable.

There are two other possibilities, either there is some kind of extension of the transition period (being called for by all opposition leaders (nothing from Starmer yet) and Nicola Sturgeon). Or some kind of over arching bridging agreement directly from the EU leaders (not looking likely).

Thanks. There’s hardly been reporting on the talks, it was eclipsed by the ‘new strain of COVID’ story and the related border-closing. Diabolical confluence of circumstances.

Oh, that new strain that we've had in the Netherlands back in September exactly once? I think the fact pubs and stores were open is much more likely the culprit, combined with a superspreader event.

The state of talks as of last night.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1341054043792261124

There’s a lot of confusion in the UK about how virulent the new strain is. Because at the weekend government spokesmen were saying its a lot more virulent, that it’s out of control, that it was spreading exponentially during the November lockdown. It is comments like this which may have resulted in the travel bans. There is a wide spread view that they hyped up the new variant to justify their U turn on easing restrictions over Christmas and going back into lockdown.

Also there is the possibility that they are using the new variant as a pawn in a high risk negotiation tactic in the trade deal negotiations. By goading EU countries into taking strong measures against the UK and then painting them as trying to control, or punish us and creating the image of Johnson as our saviour. This works with either a deal, or a no deal. Also it creates a smoke screen of chaos, classic divide and rule tactics.

There’s a lot of confusion in the UK about how virulent the new strain is. Because at the weekend government spokesmen were saying its a lot more virulent, that it’s out of control, that it was spreading exponentially during the November lockdown. It is comments like this which may have resulted in the travel bans. There is a wide spread view that they hyped up the new variant to justify their U turn on easing restrictions over Christmas and going back into lockdown.

Also there is the possibility that they are using the new variant as a pawn in a high risk negotiation tactic in the trade deal negotiations. By goading EU countries into taking strong measures against the UK and then painting them as trying to control, or punish us and creating the image of Johnson as our saviour. This works with either a deal, or a no deal. Also it creates a smoke screen of chaos, classic divide and rule tactics. — Punshhh

What confusion? Whose 'wide-spread view'? Look at the number of cases reported daily. Before lockdown it was around 23000. That came down to 16000. Now it's shot up to 35000. That increase cant be explained just by the end of lockdown. The fact that the new variant seems to have hit the UK hardest could be explained by the excellence of the UK genomics scientists, who have identified it faster than their foreign equivalents.

As for your second paragraph: twaddle.

The genomes of the various varieties have been tracked from the beginning across the globe. The variant now being blamed in the UK has been around since September already and only now is high-lighted as problematic. As of yet, there's not definitive proof that the strain really is more contagious than other strains. I personally find it highly unlikely considering how long the strain has already been around. We've should've seen spikes in other areas before but we haven't. The Netherlands had exactly 1 confirmed case of this strain back in September.

Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies program, said it was unclear if the increase in spread in the U.K. is due to the mutation or human behavior.

“We’ve seen an estimate of a small increase in the reproductive number by the U.K.,” he said, meaning the virus is spreading faster, which could mean it is more contagious or spreads more easily in colder months. It could also mean people are getting lax about following public health protocols. “It remains to be seen how much of that is due to the specific genetic change in the new variant. I suspect some.” — CBS article

The area of the UK suspected of having to deal with the new strain was in Tier 2 restrictions until 17 December. Which means basically everything was open.

My money is on human stupidity and lax rules.

Yes, it could be twaddle, but Johnson is definitely squirming. Apparently he spoke to Von der layen twice yesterday. The UK has gone to about 60% and 6 years phasing out on fish and the EU about 30% and 5 years. It’s very close, but this morning the British made a final offer and the EU rejected it and Johnson is vociferous that there is no compromise on fish. There are wild rumours of white smoke, we seem to be at crunch point.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-22/u-k-s-latest-brexit-offer-on-fish-rejected-by-eu-officials

By goading EU countries into taking strong measures against the UK and then painting them as trying to control, or punish us and creating the image of Johnson as our saviour. This works with either a deal, or a no deal. Also it creates a smoke screen of chaos, classic divide and rule tactics. — Punshhh

That's what I see too.

It’s very close, but this morning the British made a final offer and the EU rejected it and Johnson is vociferous that there is no compromise on fish — Punshhh

Johnson folded and the EU said, "Non! Foldez plus!". French are playing hardball.

Also there is the possibility that they are using the new variant as a pawn in a high risk negotiation tactic in the trade deal negotiations. By goading EU countries into taking strong measures against the UK and then painting them as trying to control, or punish us and creating the image of Johnson as our saviour. This works with either a deal, or a no deal. Also it creates a smoke screen of chaos, classic divide and rule tactics. — Punshhh

By 'using the new variant into goading...' do you mean somehow deliberately egging on the EU countries' individual bans on UK road export traffic, resulting in the tailbacks outside Dover? If so I fail to see how this could benefit Boris. All it does is give us a preview of the Jan 1st chaos, thus making everyone here more desperate than ever for a deal. If Boris fails to get one he looks worse, not better.

Either Barnier or VDL seems to be quoted every day as saying this is the crunch point. It's getting so that I just ignore them now. 'Crying wolf' it's called, not least because we know the EU is happy for the talks to go into 2021. If it gets to Dec 31st with a deal close Boris is going to find it very hard to insist on ending the talks at that point. Especially if we're still short of fresh veg etc. Another reason the current Dover chaos is bad news for no-deal supporters.

no compromise on fish — Punshhh

The one on the left is French.

Also there is the possibility that they are using the new variant as a pawn in a high risk negotiation tactic in the trade deal negotiations. — Punshhh

Sorry, but this seems a bit too far fetched. But that's just my opinion.

If true, it would be the mother of all distractions or yelling "LOOK, A SQUIRREL!!!"

I consider it unlikely as well because they couldn't time this but I'm wondering why you think it is so. Certainly not because it would be irresponsible and morally reprehensible?

Yes, he folded from 80% to 30% on fish and was told to get lost. Macron has got him on the run now. Teach him to threaten gunships.

It’s win win for Macron, good for the French elections and defrocks a confrontational populist on the periphery of the EU. Remember he has grand hopes and plans for EU reform, this is his agenda and pushing back against the populists is key.

Full capitulation imminent.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1223/1186088-brexit-talks-latest/

Hey, it's Christmas. Maybe no one will notice!

The part of the UK which is going to have to accommodate many thousands of stranded lorries is going into lockdown. — Punshhh

You should move the US where unbelievable really embarrassing utterly crazy dangerous nonsense could never possibly happen.

Yes, Johnson might make an announcement at 7.00pm. Can’t wait to see what he says about fish.

I was only saying that Johnson would spin the disruption against Macron. Rather than any strategy, I’m suggesting that Johnson’s modus operandi is to keep blustering until most options have evaporated leaving a basic choice and then jump at the last minute.

Oops, it’s looking a bit shaky, their still around the table, it might all have folded by the morning when folk realise how far Johnson has folded.

Both sides hinting that a deal could be immiment. Ok, we'll believe it when it happens. But they haven't said that before..

Certainly not because it would be irresponsible and morally reprehensible? — Benkei

The UK administration isn't similar to the Trump tirade. I think managing a country through a pandemic has been a burden for Johnson and if he earlier could be a "reckless" person in the conservative party, he as prime minister isn't one now. A true sociopath like Trump can (and will) stay the same, because Trump is utterly incapable of feeling responsibility. Putting a country again to a lock-down and dealing with the Brexit talks likely is overwhelming as just one would take all the focus of the administration to handle.

Of course any administration will try to portray the deal, any deal, that they in the end get as the best one possible. Yet there's no way now to take back all the rosy Brexit talk when the whole thing was just political discourse and not impending reality.

Yet the thing is, thanks to the pandemic the Global economy is already in the gutter, hence the feared "Brexit recession" felt only by the UK, which would have been the worst thing for Boris, will not happen. So might be a great time to do the Brexit, already thanks to the new pandemic strain UK is quarantined. So, what's a Brexit in all of this hassle?

Let's finally get over with it!

thanks to the pandemic the Global economy is already in the gutter, hence the feared "Brexit recession" felt only by the UK, which would have been the worst thing for Boris, will not happen. So might be a great time to do the Brexit, already thanks to the new pandemic strain UK is quarantined. So, what's a Brexit in all of this hassle? — ssu

A no-deal Brexit is estimated to take 2% off UK GDP next year, and tariffs will have an effect for many years. Covid-19's effect is bad but hopefully only short-term; but + Brexit it'll be even worse.

. Covid-19's effect is bad but hopefully only short-term — Tim3003

You think this is short-term?

Why?

Just when do think the global economy will roar back to a state that nothing has happened? All those service sector jobs just magically reappear back again? This year is lost, totally lost. The US has unemployment levels only similar seen in the Great Depression. You think Americans are going to rush to consume in six months or so?

In a situation where 40 countries have banned arrivals from the UK (and think vice versa how it affects tourism to the UK), I find it odd to worry about Brexit implications. But I'm open to change my mind on this view. Perhaps more convincing argument is a combo of Covid+Brexit. That's a whammy!

Yet the thing is, thanks to the pandemic the Global economy is already in the gutter, hence the feared "Brexit recession" felt only by the UK, which would have been the worst thing for Boris, will not happen. So might be a great time to do the Brexit, already thanks to the new pandemic strain UK is quarantined. So, what's a Brexit in all of this hassle?

Yes the pandemic gives Johnson something to hide behind politically. However economically the hit of Brexit is systemic and hits different sectors of the economy. Compounding the economic fallout. There will be a long term shrinkage across financial services, industrial investment and farming will need to be propped up. With Tory’s in power there is a suspicion that they will not cough up the money for the farmers and so they will suffer gradual decline as well. Although there may well be some growth in some areas due to the more global approach, I can’t think of anything at the moment. The government is talking up green technologies as a way to forge a way forward, but I can see their incompetence resulting in a failure on that one.

Wait, fishhhhhh.

You think this is short-term?

Why?

Just when do think the global economy will roar back to a state that nothing has happened? All those service sector jobs just magically reappear back again? This year is lost, totally lost. — ssu

Yes, this year is lost, but assuming the vaccines are successful in bringing Covid under control all those restaurants and air flights will be required again by 2022. People's jobs (at least in the UK) have been fairly well protected by furlough, and even if not; people won't suddenly give up eating out or flying abroad for their holidays, so those industries will expand to take up the slack, re-employing many of those made redundant. I'm not saying everything will be as if Covid never happened, but there is no reason to assume it will have a permanent effect on longer term growth is there?

As for the banning of UK citizens travelling. This is a panic response. The French have already realised it's absurd. Nothing we in the west have tried has stopped the virus spreading so far. It's likely that the new strain is already far more widely spread than just the UK, but other countries haven't realised it yet. Anyway, there's now a new South African strain which looks just as infectious. Random mutations can happen anywhere, and likely there will be more yet. The UK is ironically suffering for having the world's best genome sequencing industry..

Can't comment on Brexit details at all, and so will offer a hopeful bottom line reminder to our Brit friends across the pond.

Britain was a very successful country for centuries before the European Union. Brexit doesn't make sense to me, but if all goes wrong and the worst happens, the chaos will pass at some point and the grit and brains which have long defined your people will succeed at adapting to whatever the new environment turns out to be.

If there is any value to Brexit, it might be to remind you of who you are in times of crisis. When everyone else was running and hiding and making criminal deals, you raised your middle finger and jammed it in the eye of the Nazis. That's who you still are.

Here in the looney colonies across the pond we are now counting down the final month of the Trump presidency. 29, 28, 27.... So we've had a contest to see which our countries could be the stupidest, and while it's not clear who won, there is light emerging at the end of the long dark tunnel.

Brexit doesn't make sense to me — Hippyhead

It doesnt make sense to anyone who has any sense - except a few rabid right-wing free-marketeers. But then over here we are still scratching our head wondering how such an appalling human being as Trump could ever get elected! The sad fault with democracy is that its politicians often have to lie to win, and when they all stoop to it the most brazen liers win..