It's a subcontinent, isn't it? — frank
The results achieved in Australia and NZ are successful tests of it at that scale, and so are instructive for what could be achieved in other regions. — Andrew M
As I see it, Katz fails to acknowledge the unknown risk in pursuing herd immunity. Maybe it will work out for the best, as Sweden hoped for early on. Or maybe it will be an unmitigated disaster. — Andrew M
Evidence is mounting that having COVID-19 may not protect a person against getting infected again with some of the new variants emerging around the world
Actually I think we have a good sense of what would happen if we are able to properly and fully insulate the vulnerable (and those who choose to identify as such) from those for whom the threat poses no real risk (i.e. 99% of the population)...there would be no great disaster, the virus would eventually become endemic for 99% of the population and the vulnerable will be protected once they are all vaccinated. — dazed
The only tricky part to this solution as I see it is:
How would enforcement of isolation for those who COULD have contact with the vulnerable be maintained? Would the health workers and others who might have contact with the vulnerable be required to have a tracking device such that if they moved outside of certain parameters at certain times enforcement would occurr? — dazed
The results achieved in Australia and NZ are successful tests of it at that scale, and so are instructive for what could be achieved in other regions.
— Andrew M
No they're not. They're examples of success in regions with a low community infection source, which is the one type of environment we already know these approaches work well in (why we all should have done them to start with). Neither give an example of the approach working in an environment with a high seroprevalence. — Isaac
You were earlier advocating a 'precautionary approach', now you're suggesting we dismiss the view of the World Health Organisation and instead pursue a policy devised by some fringe data scientists? Why the change of tune? — Isaac
So here's the argument.... — Andrew M
If a fire is spreading, you don't mitigate it, you put it out. That's the precautionary approach. — Andrew M
I'm not dismissing what the WHO says. I'm making the case for an alternative strategy. — Andrew M
Yes, so it's totally doable. — frank
It's a matter of will and means. — frank
There's no mention of the disadvantages of lockdowns. One cannot make an argument in favour of an approach by only looking at the advantages of it. It's obviously going to look like the best option that way. — Isaac
I'm not fond of arguing by analogy, but even this doesn't work. we fight factory fires by showering them with water. When we meet something on the scale of a bushfire, we change tactics. It's too big to fight by showering it with water and it would be dangerous to rely on that. We cut firebreaks, make strategic burn, evacuate people from areas that we've lost... — Isaac
That's the same thing. The WHO are advising we prepare for endemic status, you're advising otherwise. — Isaac
Up until last year, what was your position on the world's response to TB? HIV/AIDS? Poverty related food shortages? Suicide? Motor vehicle safety? Were they all similarly single-issue, elimination-focussed? — Isaac
My argument was that elimination is possible (i.e., what could be achieved at larger scales of infection) as against your claim that "zero cases is literally impossible to achieve". — Andrew M
The choice though is not between lockdown and no lockdown. It's between targeted, quick lockdowns (used in conjunction with other measures including border controls and contact tracing)... — Andrew M
But endemic status is neither desirable nor inevitable. — Andrew M
The coronavirus pandemic is a systemic risk - unchecked, it grows rapidly, mutates and is highly unpredictable in terms of eventual deaths — Andrew M
There's no comparable risk with motor vehicle accidents. Outcomes are fairly predictable. — Andrew M
It's a matter of will, means and the absence of severe disadvantageous risks which outweigh the chances of success. — Isaac
I thought it was just richer people who buy lots of crap. — frank
Where I live, a torch is a piece of wood with oily rags tied on one end. The peasants use them to burn down the governor's mansion. — frank
They're examples of success in regions with a low community infection source, — Isaac
Keep in mind that both Australia and New Zealand have low community infection precisely because they locked down heavily and quickly. — Banno
IF 'merica or the UK were to lock down now, they could do the same. — Banno
Fucksake, the UK is only now thinking of isolating international travellers. — Banno
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