I could add that saying "Means that something is more or less likely" just change the word probable for likely. — denis yamunaque
Well, it's an awkward question, but, what in fact is probability? — denis yamunaque
What, conceptually, is probability? What is something being likely to happen? — denis yamunaque
I mean, we assume that if an event has probability of 99,9% of happening, it means that if we simulate the conditions, each 1000 times the event would occur next to 999 times. But that's not a fact, since nothing really prohibits the complement of the event, with probability of 0,1% of keep continuously occurring through time, while the first event, with almost 100% of probability never happens. — denis yamunaque
Thank you, I really appreciated your explanation. This last part 'suggestive trajectory to how 'likely...', it's tricky to me, 'cause in my language the translation of likely and probable is the same, so looks like not going further from the initial point. But adding this information 'suggestive trajectory...' was enough to make think a little more. — denis yamunaque
What, conceptually, is probability? What is something being likely to happen? — denis yamunaque
The next flip is just as likely to be heads as tails. — T H E
Only by virtue of our ignorance of the physical determinants of the outcome. Else you must not believe in physics at the macroscopic level. — fishfry
Nature aside, what I'm trying to get at is the ideal, mathematical model. Specifically, we can think of a Bernoulli variable with p = 0.5. But even this is a formalism that aims at an notion. Actual coins are used as 'approximations' of the ideal coin, just as we settle for PRNGs. — T H E
The word "probability" was derived from the concept of a provable postulate or prediction. An un-provable prediction is an opinion with no testable grounds for belief. Such prophecies must be taken on faith in the soothsayer, not on any objective evidence pointing to a normal future state. Hence, the prediction may rely on the small possibility of abnormal events (black swans) or miracles (divine intervention).What, conceptually, is probability? — denis yamunaque
I disagree with this assessment. To claim that P(A)=99.9% is to claim that you can assign a probability measure of A happening to the value 0.999. Since the numerical assignments presume the numerical scales map to the probabilities, and since 0.999 is 999 times greater than 0.001, the statement P(A)=99.9% is equivalent to the claim that A is 999 times as likely to occur as it is to not occur. That is what P(A)=99.9% means.I mean, we assume that if an event has probability of 99,9% of happening, it means that if we simulate the conditions, each 1000 times the event would occur next to 999 times. But that's not a fact, since nothing really prohibits the complement of the event, with probability of 0,1% of keep continuously occurring through time, while the first event, with almost 100% of probability never happens. — denis yamunaque
Humans have an advantage over most animals, in that we can imagine the near future, and prepare to make our next move, before the future actually arrives. Most animals deal with unexpected events with automatic knee-jerk reflexes. Which serves them well, in their narrow niche of the tooth & claw jungle. But humans have created a variety of artificial niches to suit diverse specialized needs and preferences. Consequently, our "asphalt jungle" is even more complex & chaotic, and rapidly changing, than the natural habitat of other animals.Well, it's an awkward question, but, what in fact is probability? — denis yamunaque
Humans have an advantage over most animals, in that we can imagine the near future, and prepare to make our next move, before the future actually arrives. — Gnomon
The human advantage over cats is in the degree & detail of its imagery -- including abstract models of Probability. I assume that cats have an instinctive sense of future prospects, but the theory of Probability goes beyond the innate dispositions that humans share with cats, into ideal realms where the cat food doesn't require human servants with hands & can openers. What if cat food just grew on trees -- what are the chances? :joke:Cats most definitely imagine the near future. — fishfry
The human advantage over cats is in the degree & detail of its imagery -- including abstract models of Probability. I assume that cats have an instinctive sense of near- future prospects, but the theory of Probability goes beyond the innate dispositions that humans share with cats, into ideal realms where the cat food doesn't require human servants with hands & can openers. What if cat food just grew on trees -- what are the chances? :joke:Cats most definitely imagine the near future. — fishfry
Probability is a measure of information about a system. — tim wood
We are hard pressed to give even a single example of an ontologically random event. Most people will fall back on quantum events. The low-order bit of the femtosecond timestamp of the next neutrino to hit your detector is random because QM says it is. — fishfry
Well, it's an awkward question, but, what in fact is probability? I mean, we assume that if an event has probability of 99,9% of happening, it means that if we simulate the conditions, each 1000 times the event would occur next to 999 times. But that's not a fact, since nothing really prohibits the complement of the event, with probability of 0,1% of keep continuously occurring through time, while the first event, with almost 100% of probability never happens.
Anyone could argue that this is not likely, or if it happens, if you repeat the experiment, it would probably not happen again. But those two arguments just use again the definition of probability without explaining it.
I could add that saying "Means that something is more or less likely" just change the word probable for likely.
I know that in real life events like the first described are not usual, but mathematically it's not impossible and it's just a scenario to the main question: What, conceptually, is probability? What is something being likely to happen? — denis yamunaque
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