Is it a 50% chance for a heads or tails before you flip a coin, or is a 50% chance for a heads or tails after the flip lands but before you look?
*I have my own thoughts I just want to hear what others think. — Jeremiah
Because probability is being used as a model to provide statistical predictions, you can choose to regard it as modeling either the physics, or your ignorance. The Principal Principle states that we should set our credences to equal the probabilities, so the two very different entities are empirically indistinguishable and often conceptually confused. — tom
We can guess what it might be, and you may have a 50% chance of being right but that chance pertains to your guess — Jeremiah
Suppose I've never heard of physics and probability theory, and I (incorrectly) expect the outcome of a large number of coin tosses to be influenced by the force of wishful thinking in the vicinity of the coin.
It seems an ordinary probabilistic or statistical model is a model of something in addition to one's ignorance. — Cabbage Farmer
After the coin lands probability is no longer a relevant question. — Jeremiah
Even after the coin has been flipped, the correct answer to the question "what is the probability that it's heads?" is "0.5" ... — Michael
No, again, at that point the correct answer is 1 if it came up heads and 0 if it came up tails. Someone's personal ignorance of the result is irrelevant once it is actual, rather than potential. — aletheist
Probability is always conditionalized on something ... — SophistiCat
According to this, there's a 51% chance of it being whatever was face up when tossed. — Michael
Now, when you talk about our confidence, we conditionalize on your background knowledge, K: — SophistiCat
And I am simply suggesting that if it is conditionalized solely on someone's knowledge (or lack thereof), background or otherwise, then we should not call it "probability." Again, I recognize that this is a futile quest. — aletheist
Which is to admit this is all an epistemological question and not an ontological one. That is, you're asking how accurate our knowledge is of an event. — Hanover
I am not sure what an ontological probability would even mean. — SophistiCat
That's just what we mean when we say that the probability of a coin toss outcome is 50%. So the answer to your question in the OP: it doesn't matter whether the coin toss has occurred or not - as long as you haven't looked. — SophistiCat
Probability and statistics is a useful manmade tool. However, it is not a statement of fact. — wellwisher
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