My rationale is that Tory’s have been in crisis following the growth of UKIP and the fallout from the financial crisis of 2008. Alongside these issues, the apparent success of Corbyn put the wind up em and their policy of austerity has started to attract criticism as a failed policy.

A generation of anti EU sentiment had matured among a section of their base and the parliamentary party. There was a steady stream of these Euro skeptics out of the party in favour of UKIP. This was partly responsible for the growing call for a referendum. In reality Cameron had little choice but to call the referendum because of this split. We don’t know what discussions and rows were going on behind the scenes

Whatever happened in the party, though resulted in the party offering a referendum and then embracing Brexit, following the result. Theresa May was continually pressured by the ERG, indeed she appeared to be far more scarred of them than the opposition. However a majority of Tory MP’s were openly in favour of remaining in the EU. By this point there were open rows in the party about what kind of Brexit should be delivered. May and the ERG quashed this repeatedly, splitting the party further.

By this point the issue was becoming polarised, the party and the population began to divide into leave and remain camps and serious discussion and argument increasingly became less and less possible as positions became entrenched.

Pro EU Tory’s found themselves in a position in which they had no choice but to back the government, whatever the government line. While the direction of Brexit was being steered by a small group at the top under intense pressure from a fanatical ERG. A handful of Tory MP’s could not accept this authoritarian line and others were thrown out of the party, the rest just kept their heads down and blindly supported the government whatever the dictat. As May’s Brexit began to founder a group of hardline anti EU Tory’s split from the May government and started to form behind Johnson. They recruited the vote leave campaigners and began to employ the populism which they had used to win the referendum.

This is where the Johnson camp crossed the line into ruthless populism. I’m sure that many Tory MP’s looked on in horror at these developments. But they had already sold their souls to this Brexit project and again put their heads down and kept quiet.

The fact that the government is now riding rough shod over the principles, values and integrity of the Conservative party and embracing power driven populism is a symptom of this crisis within the party. If there were no such crisis, there would be no populist coup. Onlookers and I’m sure party members can see the integrity of the party being torn up, that it is dividing the country and storing up untold social and political problems for the future. But feel powerless, or impotent to stop or moderate this rampant power grab.

It seems pretty psychotic to me.

Edit,
I thought I would add this article, which lays out the populism which the conservatives have embraced. A political strategy which trashes their reputation and reliability as a good/safe pair of hands in Governing the country. MP’s and supporters of the party, to an extent, have gone along with this, others haven’t and others feel betrayed.

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/06/17/boris-johnson-and-the-rise-of-make-believe/

My rationale is that Tory’s have been in crisis following the growth of UKIP and the fallout from the financial crisis of 2008... — Punshhh

I agree with all you say, but as I said. It was once the Maggie party, now it's the Boris party. In time it will evolve again under a new leader. Look at how Labour party policy and ideology has flip-flopped under its widely differing leaders over the past 4 decades. I don't think we can expect our parties to remain set in aspic in such a fast changing world. When the public tire of Boris he'll fall and maybe Hunt or someone more moderate will re-establish the integrity and genuine political philosophy the party has lost.

Well the difference between us then is that I see this as a significant departure from the norm and you see it as part of the normal rebranding of the Conservative party.

I agree with you about the rebranding and that the Tory’s will regroup with a new leader and develop a collective amnesia for what has happened in the past. The reestablishment of one nation Conservatism etc. This is a cyclical process which rinses and whitewashes the Tory’s, occasionally having an opposition party in power for a term or two (but only a moderate one, not socialists), before the return of our rulers rebranded, clean and fresh, ready to put their safe pair of hands on the tiller again.

My point is that this time they have lost the plot and gone to far. You do presumably accept that this is possible? That a ruling party can go to far, can break the system and the established cycle. If you agree that there is this possibility where do you draw the line, beyond which the cycle is broken? For me it is the trashing, demonstrable on the ground, of the core principles of One Nation Conservatism.
These are (not exhaustive)
Pro business.
A safe pair of hands with the economy.
Levelling up (the inclusion of the poor, or deprived groups)
Managing a moderate/constructive capitalism, entrepreneurship etc.
An ambassador for the important position and role of the U.K. on the world stage.
Governance of the highest integrity, reliability and honesty at home and abroad.

Now all of these principles has been trashed over the last 5 years. Indeed we now have Boris laughing at us as he does it with that petulant grin on his face as he blusters and waffles it away.

As I say there are two main drivers of this destruction.
The embracing of Brexit,
The adoption of manipulative populism

Since Johnson has been resident in No10, the proroguing of parliament, lying to the Queen, the vilification of the EU. The chaos and lies in management of various crises, The lying in plain sight, the mass corruption and misappropriation of public money during the pandemic etc has hammered home this destruction.

Is this all going to be whitewashed away while Starmer has a brief stint in Downing Street? Somehow I doubt it.

Then there is the demographic time bomb. The young just don’t get the Tory’s anymore. The gravy train in which the young turn Tory when they feel a bit of wealth and financial comfort has ended, or at least been drastically reduced. Young people don’t believe the government on the their lies about green issues, levelling up etc. Both which are going to become big issues over the next few years.
The other prong of the demographic time bomb is that their base is dying off of old age. They rely on comfortably off retired people who are insulated from the failings in the economy. But every year they die off by about half a million.

I see their days as numbered and I’m sure they have seen this as a possibility, hence their selling out to populism.

0) Pro business.
1) A safe pair of hands with the economy.
2) Levelling up (the inclusion of the poor, or deprived groups)
3) Managing a moderate/constructive capitalism, entrepreneurship etc.
4) An ambassador for the important position and role of the U.K. on the world stage.
5) Governance of the highest integrity, reliability and honesty at home and abroad.

Now all of these principles has been trashed over the last 5 years. — Punshhh

Other than 5), I think it's a bit early to convict Boris of all these crimes. He's only been in power for 18 months, and that period has been totally unprecedented in peace-time history due to the pandemic.
1). Too early to say, given the pandemic.
2) As it's his own mantra, he deserves a bit of leeway - we have the social care paper coming out soon, so he says..
0) & 3) Again, hard to judge yet. What is your evidence to the contrary?
4): He would say he's doing that, his redefining of what that role is may not be too everyone's taste. I don't think anyone trusts him, but no-one believed the U.S. was just Trump...

The demographic time-bomb: if there's one difference between the young and the old politiclly, it's the young's greater openness to Green politics. He's making the right noises there; although, again, too early to tell if real actions follow them.

Since I've never been a Tory voter I don't feel the pain of betrayal that you apparently do, so my outlook is more measured. Where going too far is concerned, I'd say this govt is less extreme than Maggie Thatcher's in economic and social policies. Who was it caused the current housing crisis by selling off all the council houses? Not Boris. That one policy is as much the cause of your gravy-trainless young would-be Tories as anything.

On the issue of integrity and lying, peddling half-truths, lack of concern about means when the end is expedient, and ignoring fact-based arguments on the basis that the pleb-voters he seeks won't understand or care about them, then yes, Boris has gone too far. I think this will bring him down in the end. Trump has gone; Bolsonaro's in dire trouble. I even hear Marine Le Penn has now retreated from her rabidly anti-EU position. We will see how long populism can survive...

Yes, in policy terms the gov is no worse than Thatcher. Although following 10yrs of austerity with another 10 to come, the effect on the institutions and services, affected is equally as stark/destructive.

Going back to the numbered points, the effect of political decisions by Tory’s and this gov to deliver a chaotic hard Brexit in itself is anti business, destructive to the economy and has trashed our international standing.
For anyone who has a modicum of interest in politics, presumably it has become clear by now that Tory’s don’t care about the poor, the wealth divide, or reviving sink towns and areas. They’ve had 10yrs to address these issues and have made the situation demonstrably worse. Now we have all this debt from The pandemic, it is clear there is going to be a further round of austerity, which will hit those on median and low incomes.

You write about the gov in a way that the promises they make might have some credibility, that they might just do what they say. I understand this as it is how political discourse has been conducted for decades in this country. But surely by now you realise that these promises are laughable, especially on levelling up, global trade and Green issues.

I agree with your thoughts about populism, it always falls down when people realise it is built on hollow promises, lies and division.

There is an interesting thread here listing the emerging issues with the unfolding Brexit, just to give a flavour.
https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1407936175885754373?s=20

You write about the gov in a way that the promises they make might have some credibility, that they might just do what they say. I understand this as it is how political discourse has been conducted for decades in this country. But surely by now you realise that these promises are laughable, especially on levelling up, global trade and Green issues. — Punshhh

Well how else is Boris going to win the next election? We agree that that is his overwhelming priority. If he just leaves a string of broken promises between now and then not even the most stupid voters will be fooled. It didn't work for Trump despite his willingness to bolster his promises by whipping up racist and leftist phobias.

Boris may be a lier but unlike Trump he's no fool. You can bet he has planned a strategy for the economic reckonning in the years ahead beyond just hoping people will forget. I think that by then he will have very little trust left anyway, so he'll be having to produce evidence for every claim he makes.

1). Too early to say, given the pandemic. — Tim3003

Too late, surely. When was the Conservative party last the steward of a strong economy? Certainly not Thatcher's 15% interest rate which killed investment and growth. And let's not forget that her decision to close down manufacturing and bet everything on a deregulated financial sector didn't work out that well in the long run.

The myth of the strong Tory economy seems to be entirely down to the older, broader belief that our superiors are more competent, a belief that survives all evidence to the contrary.

But it's conceivably much worse. The Boris economy is the same as the Cameron/Gideon economy, based on the principle that the purpose of government is to transfer money from taxpayers to friends. Can't be an improvement.

As I have said, the Tory’s are finished once they are demonstrably an economic failure. All they’ve got now is more austerity, this cuts the legs out from under the struggling public services, and social security, delivering crisis after crisis. Johnson’s trick of blaming failure on others will soon wear thin. Their solution to this is more free market involvement. But it always ends in crony gravy trains.

They might have been able to scrape by if Brexit had not happened. But now we have a chaotic hard Brexit it will compound all these problems and add a whole layer more on top.

He will increasingly become cornered into relying on raw populism, like Trump.

I can’t see any way back for the Tory’s for a decade, or more now. An opposition coalition will have to pick up the pieces and hopefully break the stranglehold of Murdoch et al and bring in PR.

Quite, I could never understand why Thatcher didn’t produce a sustainable industrial strategy. Had we not been in the EU she would probably have neglected farming too.
I can see interest rates rising again now, I can’t see how it can be avoided. And with our over-leveraged population, this is a dangerous corner to find ourselves in.

Yeah interest rates will have to rise, they've been kept artificially low for a decade now.

I could never understand why Thatcher didn’t produce a sustainable industrial strategy. — Punshhh

Thatcher hated the very idea of an industrial strategy, sustainable or not. Hers was a laissez-faire policy; she believed that state interventions in the economy were almost always counter-productive.

Thatcher hated the very idea of an industrial strategy, sustainable or not. Hers was a laissez-faire policy; she believed that state interventions in the economy were almost always counter-productive. — Olivier5

Thatcher closed the coal mines - and devastated large parts of the north of England. One can argue, it was a sustainable industrial strategy, but I think it was about breaking the power of the unions - which is far from lassiez faire.

it was about breaking the power of the unions - which is far from lassiez faire — counterpunch

Sure, you could always see it differently, but this is at least what she was saying at the time.

Sure, you could always see it differently, but this is at least what she was saying at the time. — Olivier5

Cameron said he was a Remainer. Politicians lie all the time. They say one thing and do another; so better to judge them by what they do. Closing the coal mines, and shifting to gas was justified in terms of sustainability, but as an intervention in the market - and destruction of the unions, it was not lassiez faire.

Fair enough. Even no industrial policy is a sort of industrial policy, in effect.

Fair enough. Even no industrial policy is a sort of industrial policy, in effect. — Olivier5

Hmm, and I thought you'd pick up on the interesting question of whether unions are consistent with lassiez faire economics - or, if not that, you'd deny that Cameron was actually a brexiteer. Y'know that, even no reply is a sort of reply, in effect!

She should have been advised that without an industrial strategy U.K. industry would be undercut through the development of globalisation and the rise of Chinese manufacturing.
Likewise the evolution of US style management ideology and its reliance on exploitation of employees for profit.

As a result we now have an economy and society ravaged by globalisation and deregulated business practices and offshore IT corporations. And stuck with an incompetent Tory party with only one strategy to remedy this situation, Austerity. Oh and further free market capitalism, now global. Which will embed the failure and crisis further.

Yes, and we still have not dealt with the subprime mortgage crisis. House prices are rising at the fasted rate for years and rental costs for those who aren’t fortunate enough to be on the property ladder are by far their largest expenditure.

Add to this rising interest rates and it could burst and this time it will not just be froth, but mass repossessions and bankruptcy.

Please feel free to invent whatever you want to about me.

Please feel free to invent whatever you want to about me. — Olivier5

It's been a joy speaking with you!

I agree that the nations that move forward are generally those that do NOT implement a laissez faire policy, but more frequently those who can develop a clear view of where they want to go. This said, France always had an industrial policy and it nevertheless went through pretty much the same de-industrialization as the UK. Though I guess we kept the car makers...

I'm here to please.

I'm here to please. — Olivier5

I'm leaving! Don't try and stop me!

Cameron wanted a referendum since 2005, when he wrote the Tory manifesto for Michael Howard. — counterpunch

Correct. But the question is why he wanted it.

One theory has it that he did it (1) to win the elections and (2) because he thought that the Remainer camp would win.

"Cameron had to promise a referendum on the EU issue. Without the promise of a referendum, Cameron would not have won the general election because a vast number of eurosceptic Tory voters would have voted for UKIP candidates. Cameron only became Prime Minister because he promised a referendum"

https://www.vernoncoleman.com/remaincamp.htm

"The departure of former Prime Minister David Cameron, a staunch Remainer, delayed the Brexit process from even beginning when the Tory leader announced he could not lead Britain through its exit ..."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1264069/brexit-latest-news-brexit-uk-eu-exit-remainer-boris-johnson-brexit-delay

Correct. — Apollodorus

I don't want to talk about it! It winds me up!
Anything else, Aplollodorus - elsewhere!

I can’t comment much on France as I don’t receive much news from there. I would expect that there was also some industrial decline in the face of globalisation. The main difference I think is that France didn’t deregulate, shrink the state and reduce taxation, like in the U.K.
So France still has its nationalised services and social support in place. By contrast, here in the U.K. these have been starved of resources until they are in crisis, or have been shrunk to the point of crisis. On the alter of free market capitalism, or something.

The last time I was in France, I experienced this first hand, in a small way, but I was shocked by it. I was walking for the day and caught a train back to the start of the walk, in a small provincial town. As I walked into the station building, I was expecting to come across a ticket machine, but was surprised to find a person in the ticket office. I had been conditioned to think that such staffing had been cut due to cost cutting measures as in U.K. In the U.K. you would be lucky to find a ticket office open in a large town.

I appreciate your thoughts on the issue and that you would rather not talk about it.
I would agree with you in regard of a number of Conservatives, although I had the impression that Cameron was a moderate. Although I would in hindsight consider that his and Osbourne’s pro EU mutterings might have been lies.
My experience of anti EU politics was from the eighties and early nineties through family connections. I didn’t fall for it and saw it as a prejudice alongside a naive interpretation of the EU. I also concluded that once infected with this anti EU sentiment, Tory’s would hardly ever reject it, only believe it all the more, on very little evidence, in a preference for spurious rumour.

I would echo the points made by Apollodorus, that it was the fear of the Tory party being torn apart by UKIP which drove the talk of a referendum. Also that the promise of one swung the 2015 election in Cameron’s favour.
It has been acknowledged by commentators at the time that Cameron, had expected to remain in coalition with the Lib Dem’s in 2015 and that the Lib Dem’s would block any referendum. And that Cameron was surprised at the size of the Brexit bounce in his favour.

The referendum still chaps my hide - because it was crooked AF. People have no idea. But what good does it do to dwell? It's done - and now we can but make the best of it. I was an ardent Remainer - and protested right through to the 2019 general election, where the public had the option of voting LibDem, and revoking Article 50. The public didn't vote for that - they voted for a Brexiteer, and that's when I accepted the inevitable - but a bitter distaste for David Cameron still lingers!

it was crooked AF. People have no idea. — counterpunch

I knew Cameron was a brexiteer. You only have to examine his political history - and it's completely obvious that he should never have been the spokesman for Remain.

He was a brexitter - holding the Remain camp down while letting his pals in the Tax Payer's Alliance run rampant with the Leave campaign. Cameron's media strategist - Suzi Squire, worked for Dominic Cummings at the Tax Payer's Alliance - and the TPA ran the Leave campaign. Cameron was in bed with the Leave campaign.

He provided for the referendum, made that impossible 'tens of thousands' pledge on immigration - "or vote me out." His renegotiation was doomed to fail from the outset - and as soon as he touched back down on British soil, a failure - he announced he would be the face of Remain.

Cameron lost on purpose for Remain. And I haven't even scratched the surface. The Brexit referendum was the most corrupt piece of political theater in modern political history.

Did you happen to catch the report produced by "a task force commissioned by Boris Johnson" recommending a "bonfire of red tape." Sounds so much better than "a race to the bottom on workers rights, wages, health and safety, food standards, animal welfare and environmental standards."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/15/post-brexit-britain-should-light-bonfire-eu-red-tape-fuel-economic/

Hate to say I told you so!

Hate to say I told you so! — karl stone

You didn't need to tell me. You're right, but I can't do this. It's done now, we may as well just get on with it. What you need to realise is - two things; first - that the EU accepted the withdrawal notice without a word of complaint on behalf of sixteen million of their loyal citizens. And secondly, the public voted for brexit at the 2019 general election. It is a fait accompli - forget it. Move on!