Disturbing analogy. — Shawn

Agreed, but it pales in comparison to what we are doing to the Earth. Talk about disturbing. But we've become numb to it.

"We will do [something] by 2030" is a dodge. What matters is the politicians commence to a) stop de-forestation IMMEDIATELY b) begin re-forestation IMMEDIATELY c) lower CO2 / methane emissions IMMEDIATELY d) build wind generation and solar facilities IMMEDIATELY e) start building up mass transit (rail freight, passengers) IMMEDIATELY.

Why all the "IMMEDIATELYs"? Because few if any politicians in office in 2021 will be in office in 2030. They can be held to account for what they do this year and next year, and the year after...

I feel / fear that what 2030, 2050, or 2070... deadlines mean is that "We'll worry about it then. In the meantime, we'll wait and see how fast things get worse. With any luck, things will get so bad that nothing can be done about it, and then we'll be doomed; but at least I'll be off the hook for making difficult decisions."

:100: We've been stalling for 40 years or more.

Those two strengths go up against the equally powerful bulwarks of the status quo: vested interest and inertia.

The first, the fossil fuel lobby, has suffered damage in recent years: a global divestment campaign, for instance, has put $15tn in endowments and portfolios beyond its reach, and it builds little now without resistance. People increasingly see through the fossil fuel lobby’s attempts at greenwashing. But it maintains its hold on too many capitals – in the United States, the Republican party is its wholly owned subsidiary, which makes progress halting at best. And the planet’s financial superpowers – Chase, Citi, BlackRock and the rest – continue to lend and invest as if there was nothing wrong with an industry that is literally setting the Earth on fire.

As for inertia, it’s a deep obstacle, simply because the climate crisis is a timed test. Without swift change we will pass irrevocable tipping points: winning slowly on climate is simply another way of losing. Every huge forest fire, every hurricane strike, every month of drought heightens public demand for change – but every distraction weakens that demand. Covid could not have come at a worse time – indeed, it very nearly undid these talks for the second year in a row.

So, that’s the playbill. We have two big forces on each side of the drama, behemoths leaning against each other and looking for weakness to exploit. In the wings, old hands like John Kerry, the US climate envoy, push and probe; if the US Senate actually passes a serious climate plan before Glasgow, his power will increase like some video game character handed a magic sword. If the price of gas keeps rising in Europe, perhaps that weakens chances for a breakthrough.

We know which side will win in the end, because vested interest is slowly shifting towards the ever-larger renewable sector, and because inertia over time loses ground to the movements that keep growing. But we don’t know if that win will come in time to matter. Glasgow, in other words, is about pace: will it accelerate change, or will things stay on their same too-slow trajectory? Time will tell – it’s the most important variable by far.

Bill McKibben

I feel / fear that what 2030, 2050, or 2070... deadlines mean is that "We'll worry about it then. In the meantime, we'll wait and see how fast things get worse. — Bitter Crank

Kinda like the "Free Beer Tomorrow" sign in the pub?

I actually don't pay any attention to any of this shit because I already know what's going to get done...not a damn thing, until it's obviously too late. As we stand right now, I think it's probably already "too late" to prevent eventual tropic zone catastrophe, only now it's just not yet obvious. All I feel I can do is say "Que sera, sera", and thank my lucky stars I don't live in the tropics.

I think it's probably already "too late" to prevent eventual tropic zone catastrophe, only now it's just not yet obvious. — Michael Zwingli

The eventual has already eventuated. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/9/3/madagascar-is-on-brink-of-first-climate-induced-famine-un-warns

I actually don't pay any attention to any of this shit because I already know what's going to get done...not a damn thing, until it's obviously too late. — Michael Zwingli

I wonder if any studies have been done (sociology, history, poly sci?) that winnowed out those few (if any) cases where humanity saw a looming threat and decided to nip it in the bud? If such cases exist, what was the controlling factor that moved the needle toward action, over-and-above the kicking and screaming of those who championed doing nothing? Was it money? Leadership? Propaganda? Violence?

It has been my lay-observation that the threatened negatives have to come home to the recalcitrant before anything gets done.

The meanness in me would pretend to not be satisfied with an "I told you so" after the fact. I would want to exact horrible punishment upon those who allowed the threats to come to fruition. I would not want to see them get on board at the last minute and profit from only then doing the right thing. I would want to claw-back their gains, and then some.

But I'm too old for any of that. I do, however, see how the younger generation might feel like a newly-freed slave if they ever over-come the threat. You can't, after all, let a man up after abusing him, and then expect him to let by-gones-be-by-gones, thanking you for stopping what you never should have been doing in the first place. There will be some push-back as the field is re-leveled and the score-board reset.

I wonder how the Earth will react. She seems to not calculate things like forgiveness, vengeance, etc. As William Muny said before shooting Little Bill in the face: "Deserves got nothing to do with it."

Anyway, if we ever did do the right thing before we had to, and before their was a monetary incentive to do it, we might look to the motivating factors from history and try that yesterday.

I wonder how the Earth will react. She seems to not calculate things like forgiveness, vengeance, etc. As William Muny said before shooting Little Bill in the face: "Deserves got nothing to do with it."

Anyway, if we ever did do the right thing before we had to, and before their was a monetary incentive to do it, we might look to the motivating factors from history and try that yesterday. — James Riley

Yeah physics doesn't care about any of that... and eventhough a case could no doubt be made for it, I don't think finger-pointing will get us closer to a solution either.

I wonder if any studies have been done (sociology, history, poly sci?) that winnowed out those few (if any) cases where humanity saw a looming threat and decided to nip it in the bud? If such cases exist, what was the controlling factor that moved the needle toward action, over-and-above the kicking and screaming of those who championed doing nothing? Was it money? Leadership? Propaganda? Violence? — James Riley

Propaganda, some kind of story would be my guess. You convince people into believing that the necessary transition wouldn't actually be a sacrifice for them, but a beneficial thing... which it probably would be to some extend. Finger pointing and fear-mongering will only get you so far because for most it's not possible to be in this constant state of panic/urgency psychologically speaking.

You convince people into believing that the necessary transition wouldn't actually be a sacrifice for them, but a beneficial thing... which it probably would be to some extend. — ChatteringMonkey

I read somewhere there is no limit to what can be done if you give others credit for it. And something about letting people think it was there idea. However, I think those tactics are old, foreseen and undermined by interests that want to conserve (ative) the status quo. Maybe smarter people than me can figure it out.

I read somewhere there is no limit to what can be done if you give others credit for it. And something about letting people think it was there idea. However, I think those tactics are old, foreseen and undermined by interests that want to conserve (ative) the status quo — James Riley

Maybe smarter people than me can figure it out. — James Riley

I agree, chances don't look that hot...I do think maybe the time is ripe for some kind of politician or political movement that can connect the dots in the right way considering how out of time and detached mainstream political parties are... there definitely seems to be a market for it.

So nearly nothing came out of COP26, as about expected, and we're almost certainly facing an unparalleled destruction in human history. In other words, this conference was a death knell.

Should be headline news all over the world. I'm not giving up, of course, but this seems to be the reality. Who knew we'd eventually die from capitalism? One would have thought radical fundamentalism, but I repeat myself.

Classic capitalism: Oh no, we're approaching the inevitable breakdown of hundreds of nations across the world and a significant decrease in quality of life for most Western countries! Anyway...gotta pay the rent, save for groceries, deal with my bullshit job

Yeah, but that sounds like ordinary people -- who I don't necessarily blame. I blame the people at the top, the corporate, political, and intellectual leaders who have duped the vast majority of the population with their bullshit belief/value system. For them it's more like: "We're heading for destruction, but our job is to raise profit and share prices every quarter or we're out on our ass, so let someone else handle it." Or they deny it all together, as the fossil fuel industry did for decades.

So true. Today I'm 43. My dad used to be a refinery manager, working late often. My mom complained about that regularly and I apparently replied when I was 4: "that's a good thing. He's inventing things that are better for the environment."

We've known for decades. Just like smoking, over fishing, pollution and diminishing biodiversity.

"Après nous, le déluge..."

So nearly nothing came out of COP26, as about expected, and we're almost certainly facing an unparalleled destruction in human history. In other words, this conference was a death knell. — Xtrix

Can't say that. There was at least an attempt. The Australian PM was obliged to stand up to a world audience and say climate change is something that has to be dealt with. No Australian PM has ever had to do that in a public forum, or at least, the last one that did lost his office over it. We all know that his response is 'not good enough' but he was obliged, at least, to say it. Cynicism, writing it all off as hopeless, is just another way to abandon any hope of change.

this is totally true tbh, I guess what I meant is that if the ship is sinking and it’s being purposely steered by those on top, those on the bottom are the only ones left to stop it-but we can’t and the capitalists have made sure we can’t. I don’t blame people for trying to survive, but it’s sad to see how we totally have the power to start a working class movement but the guys on top have made the majority of people very comfortable with this warped system to the point where they’ll defend it. With the whole “great resignation” stuff people are waking up to something…but whether or not a mass left wing movement led by the people is yet to be seen.

And I just wanted to add, if you weren’t already aware the /r/Antiwork subreddit has now surpassed 1 million subscribers and is continuing to grow. Climate change damage maybe set in stone but I don’t think I’m wrong to be a little optimistic that something could change here

Cynicism, writing it all off as hopeless, is just another way to abandon any hope of change. — Wayfarer

Very true, although I’d argue I’m being realistic. Nevertheless, as I said, I’m not by any means using it as an excuse to give up, because I never really thought much would come of it anyway. Same with this reconciliation bill being negotiated in congress— everything worthwhile has been removed. So it’s a matter of simply continuing on.

ship is sinking and it’s being purposely steered by those on top, those on the bottom are the only ones left to stop it-but we can’t and the capitalists have made sure we can’t. — Albero

We can. We have far more power and privilege than other people in the world today and throughout history, who have fought under much harsher conditions.

I’m not saying I’m hopeless, or that nothing can be done —I’m saying that like anything else in history, change will have to come from below. That means you and I, and those around us. It means joining together. Educating ourselves and others, creating solutions and programs, and pressing for those programs.

Plenty of organizations. The Sunrise Movement is incredible— Fridays for Future, likewise. 350.org, the divestment movement, Extinction Rebellion, Greenpeace, the NRDC, etc. All very important.

It’s local involvement as well. The Sierra Club has many local chapters. Labor unions are crucial to all of this too because it’s business that will need to change, and if workers have no say then not only will the status quo continue, but people will increasingly be too poor and too exhausted to care.

Can't really say nothing, but it's more half-measures that are woefully insufficient to solve the problem at hand. At the very least it's more than I expected but that isn't saying much.

We'd either need a global govt or a new global religion. Maybe later in this century.

or a new global religion — frank

It wouldn't have to be new. But I get your point.

COP26 Achievements :love:

(This is an unironic tweet btw - Canavan is a sitting Australian senator and ex resource minister).

Who are the millions in poverty he's talking about?

Who knows. Probably the future Australian population when he's done with them.

Indians.

Indians — I like sushi

But they're paying for the coal. It's not going to lift them out of poverty. And why does India need coal? Isn't it hot there?

Cheap energy. Prior to covid a million a year died in India due to starvation/malnutrition. A huge swathe of the population has fallen into poverty now due to lockdowns. Cheaper energy will help them get back on track.

A huge swathe of the population has fallen into poverty now due to lockdowns. Cheaper energy will help them get back on track. — I like sushi

What's weird about this is that the average American bank account rose during the pandemic. India got poorer?

There was at least an attempt. The Australian PM was obliged to stand up to a world audience and say climate change is something that has to be dealt with. — Wayfarer

With such a display of bold, fearless, undaunted courage, surely salvation is at hand!

Kindly forgive my sarcasm, if you will.

The first big climate conference was in Geneva in 1979. "It issued a declaration calling on the world's governments "to foresee and prevent potential man-made changes in climate that might be adverse to the well-being of humanity". 42 years later, there has been action -- however modest: Consciousness of global warming, modest efforts to reduce use of fossil fuels, a considerable effort in wind/solar power generation, and so on. Still, global monthly average concentrations of carbon dioxide have risen from around 339 parts per million in 1980 (averaged over the year) to 412 parts per million in 2020, an increase of more than 20%.

So it isn't that NOTHING has been done, but that not nearly enough has been done to change the dire outcomes before us. "Crisis" has not mobilized the huge range of actions that are required by the small population who own/direct the world economy.

With such a display of bold, fearless, undaunted courage, surely salvation is at hand! — Bitter Crank

I know, I know. The Australian government in particular is a display of pusillanimous double-talk and backwards-looking hypocrisy.

If things get bad enough, we'll pump a bunch of sulphur dioxide into the air.