The first few minutes of the video show how standard economic theory fails to take thermodynamics into account. — Banno
One of the most basic laws in the universe is the Second Law of Thermodynamics. This states that as time goes by, entropy in an environment will increase. Evolution argues differently against a law that is accepted EVERYWHERE BY EVERYONE. Evolution says that we started out simple, and over time became more complex. That just isn't possible: UNLESS there is a giant outside source of energy supplying the Earth with huge amounts of energy. If there were such a source, scientists would certainly know about it. — Creationist who almost discovers the sun
No. The sun provides almost 10,000 times as much energy to the Earth’s surface per time unit and unit area, namely 342 Wm-2, as we emit into the atmosphere or waters through industry, transport, housing, agriculture and other activities by using fossil fuels and the nuclear fuel uranium (0.03 Wm-2). — Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
Is waste heat produced by human activities important for the climate? — SophistiCat
Forecasts by economists of the economic damage from climate change have been notably sanguine, compared to warnings by scientists about damage to the biosphere. This is because economists made their own predictions of damages, using three spurious methods: assuming that about 90% of GDP will be unaffected by climate change, because it happens indoors; using the relationship between temperature and GDP today as a proxy for the impact of global warming over time; and using surveys that diluted extreme warnings from scientists with optimistic expectations from economists. Nordhaus has misrepresented the scientific literature to justify the using a smooth function to describe the damage to GDP from climate change. Correcting for these errors makes it feasible that the economic damages from climate change are at least an order of magnitude worse than forecast by economists, and may be so great as to threaten the survival of human civilization. — Keen
Classical economic theory also assumed rational individual actors and minimal government interference. Thermodynamics may be logical (rational), but the regulation (natural laws) is inherent in the system. The human factor in economics is a wild card. And, I suppose it's also an irrational element in Earth-based thermodynamics, resulting in global warming. Fortunately for us, over the long haul, the erratic path of both systems, tends to balance-out at a moderate mean. Let's hope, anyway. We don't really want to eradicate humans from the planet, do we? :cool:Classical economics breaches the first and second laws of thermodynamics by treating the economy as a closed system that increases in order. — Banno
Fortunately for us, over the long haul, the erratic path of both systems, tends to balance-out at a moderate mean. — Gnomon
Classical economics breaches the first and second laws of thermodynamics by treating the economy as a closed system that increases in order. — Banno
That's rather the issue in question, isn't it? — Banno
Is the market taking care of itself a conclusion, or an assumption? — Banno
Creationist who almost discovers the sun — SophistiCat
Of course. Short term economic or evolutionary paths tend to look like the first chart below. But Long-term paths typically vary around a fairly constant mean -- maybe even sloping upward, as in chart 2. Although global warming currently looks like a hockey-stick, over 10,000 years the system has balanced itself well enough to keep Life alive. But now, it seems that a little global government intervention/regulation may be necessary to get us back on track. Dystopian visions of economic/thermal/ thermo-nuclear apocalypse may be premature. Have a little faith in humanity -- we haven't bombed ourselves into oblivion yet . . . :cool:The assumption of continuity is one the physics undermines - tipping points and phase changes, rather than smooth curves. — Banno
Have a little faith in humanity — Gnomon
I vaguely remember from long ago an economics book (New World of Economics, 1975 ???) that recommended an approach more like Physics. But the problem with such a model is that physical systems are better-behaved and more predictable than chaotic human groups. In fact, I suspect that some economists tried to make models based on physics, and failed to get reliable results. Yet again, their Bell-curve models didn't fit the messy realities of collective and individual human nature.*1There's a problem that is not part of the economist's calculation. They need to talk to a physicist. — Banno
No, it isn't. That's not were Keen went. — Banno
This is because economists made their own predictions of damages, using three spurious methods: assuming that about 90% of GDP will be unaffected by climate change, because it happens indoors; using the relationship between temperature and GDP today as a proxy for the impact of global warming over time; and using surveys that diluted extreme warnings from scientists with optimistic expectations from economists. — Keen
So, you are saying that Keen's points have nothing to do with elementary thermodynamics, and that smug rant at the beginning of the video was just a strained metaphor? — SophistiCat
Classical economics breaches the first and second laws of thermodynamics by treating the economy as a closed system that increases in order. — Banno
You have to give tangible incentives for business organizations to reduce emissions -- namely, measurables in relation to their output (this is the intensity emission reduction). This might be the only meaningful measure for those entities. Contrast that with absolute emission reduction.That's rather the issue in question, isn't it? Is the market taking care of itself a conclusion, or an assumption? — Banno
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