The Ukraine-Russia crisis explained: a complete visual guide
Tensions have escalated sharply after Vladimir Putin ordered troops into east Ukraine. What might happen next?
A map released by Ukrainian military intelligence in November showed a worst-case scenario: Russian forces crossing the Ukrainian border from the east and attacking from annexed Crimea, as well as launching an amphibious assault on Odessa with support from Russian soldiers in Transnistria and troops sent in from Belarus...
What is the role of Nord Stream 2?
On 22 February, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, stopped the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in response to Russia’s recognition of the two self-proclaimed republics...
Europe’s most divisive energy project, Nord Stream 2 bypasses the traditional gas transit nation of Ukraine by running along the bed of the Baltic Sea. It has faced resistance within the European Union, and from the United States as well as Ukraine, on the grounds that it increases Europe’s energy dependence on Russia, denies Ukraine transit fees and makes it more vulnerable to Russian invasion.
— Guardian: the Ukraine-Russian crisis explained
Both sides are defending a narrow set of interests. NATO is defending its “right” to expansion up to Russia’s borders and Russia is defending its “right” to a sphere of influence or buffer zone around its borders. Both sides can apply ostensibly reasonable arguments to support their positions — Baden
Russia portrays NATO's maneuvers as an attempt to weaken it in relative terms and NATO portrays Russia's maneuvers as an imperialistic. But regardless of who fires the first shot (and war has been going on by proxy in the Ukraine’s eastern regions already), both sides taking an aggressive posture and neither backing down is the ethical failure here — Baden
That Russia’s not backing down manifests more obviously in open conflict and the eventual subjugation of Ukraine, whereas NATO's not backing down would manifest in the full transformation of the Ukraine into a western client state is not the primary issue imo but the short-sighted lack of mutual engagemen — Baden
IMF handouts continue. The latest is an agreement to extend loans into 2022 worth $700m of a total $5bn IMF ‘stand-by arrangement’. For this money, Ukraine “must keep its debt ‘sustainable’, safeguard the central bank’s independence, bring inflation back into its target range and tackling corruption.” So austerity measures must be applied to public spending; the central bank must act in the interests of foreign debtors and not allow the currency to devalue too much and keep interest rates up without the interference of the government; and the rampant corruption in government with the Ukrainian oligarchs must be controlled. (see IMF Stand-by arrangement November 2021 report. )
Austerity measures have been applied by various governments over the last ten years. The current IMF package requires a tax increase equivalent to 0.5% of annual GDP, increased pension contributions and rises in energy tariffs. All these measures will lead to a further fall in welfare spending, from 20% of GDP at the time of the 2014 crisis to just 13% this year.
Above all, the IMF is insisting, with the support of the latest post-Maidan government, to carry out substantial privatisation of the banks and state enterprises in the interests of ‘efficiency’ and to control ‘corruption’. ... The government is resisting allowing foreigners to buy land. But in 2024, Ukrainian legal entities will qualify for transactions involving up to 10,000 hectares and will apply to an agricultural area of 42.7 million hectares (103 million acres). That is equivalent to the entire surface area of the state of California, or all of Italy! The World Bank is positively drooling at this opening up of Ukraine’s key industry to capitalist enterprise: “This is without exaggeration a historic event, made possible by the leadership of the President of Ukraine, the will of the parliament and the hard work of the government.” So Ukraine plans to open up its economy even more to capital, particularly foreign capital, in the hope that this will deliver faster growth and prosperity.
Imperialism by financial means; as distinct from imperialism by military ones. — StreetlightX
... it is a mutual process which has been going on, pretty much unseen, for a long time.
For example: the ennoblement of Mr Lebedev, son of a former KGB agent... — Amity
Boris Johnson could not have been more clear. “I just think it’s very important that the house understands – we do not raise money from Russian oligarchs.” Some opposition MPs laughed, and it very much is the case that the prime minister was accurate only in a strict legalistic sense.
It would be impossible for someone only with Russian nationality, however rich, to donate legally to a UK political party. What has undoubtedly happened is that a series of people with dual UK-Russian nationality, or with significant business links with Russia, have donated heavily to the Conservatives in recent years.
A Labour party calculation based on Electoral Commission information estimated that donors who have made money from Russia or Russians have given £1.93m to either the Tory party or constituency associations since Johnson became prime minister.
Others put the sum higher. Ian Blackford, the SNP’s Westminster leader, to whom Johnson was replying in the Commons on Wednesday, said the Tories had raised £2.3m “from Russian oligarchs”
[ ... ]
The biggest single donor of this group is the financier Lubov Chernukhin, who has donated £700,000. A British national since 2011, she is married to Vladimir Chernukhin, a former deputy finance minister under Putin.
Documents published in the Pandora papers in October suggest he was allowed to leave Russia in 2004 with assets worth about $500m (£366m) and retain Russian business connections.
— Guardian - Tory Party funding linked to Russia
It is exactly the quality that treating Putin like a cartoon villain deserves. A cartoon response. — StreetlightX
I'm aware Ukraine now has significantly better weaponry than they did back with the Crimea situation, but, I don't think Ukraine can do too much to Russia's military. — Manuel
How do the militaries compare?
Any invasion by Russia into Ukraine will pit the Kremlin’s large, recently modernised military against an adversary largely using older versions of the same or similar equipment, dating back to the Soviet era. Russia has significant numerical advantages on land and in particular in air and at sea, although the Ukrainians would be defending their homeland. — Guardian
Everyone is pointing out how Russia is a "security risk", it's political lingo. No one can speak in the way you require because of diplomacy. — Christoffer
Aren't you suppose to compare "America" to "Russia"? Then apply Soviet history and a guy named Putin who dream Soviet dreams, of reclaiming that power. — Christoffer
Who the fuck said anything about democracy? — Christoffer
We can criticize the politics of the US, but Putin is a dictator in his rule, he's putting in place a lifetime seat as the leader of Russia and people under him is playing theatre so that the rest of the world thinks Russia is a democracy — Christoffer
What does this have to do with anything I'm saying about Putin and Russia? Your argument is essentially: "because US is really bad, has been really bad and will probably be bad in the future... therefore we don't have to worry about Putin and Russia?" — Christoffer
Again, what are you talking about? What has this to do with the current geopolitical conflicts? — Christoffer
Are you actually saying that we shouldn't address what is happening at the moment because of starving people elsewhere? What about the thousands of people who will be killed if Putin does a full-scale invasion? What about if he doesn't stop there? What if he needs to fulfill the Soviet dream even further? THIS is why you are naive, you don't understand what is really going on. — Christoffer
Imperialism by financial means; as distinct from imperialism by military ones. — StreetlightX
Western trade dominance, Western financial instruments, Western military imperialism... — Isaac
We have also the fact that all through these years gradually we have drawn Germany—this greater part of Germany [US-UK-controlled West Germany] —into the Western orbit. We have drawn this part of Germany into the Schuman Plan, and into every sort and kind of contact—political, economic, literary, cultural of every sort and kind ....
Or do you really think NATO wants to somehow undermine the health of the Russian state? — frank
You did. — Isaac
No. Russia has undergone massive regime changes since then, the US is still run by the same people. I'm comparing regimes because, you know, the soil they happen to stand on doesn't make so much difference. — Isaac
Yes. Because "worrying about Putin" doesn't happen in a vacuum. We can't just not not do anything about Ukraine, if you want action, that action is going to be US led, so the track record of the US is fundamentally important here. Its the alternative you're advocating in "worrying about Putin". — Isaac
It's no good pointing a finger at Putin and crying "bad man", you need to work out what the alternative to inaction is and whether anyone is actually going to be better off that way. — Isaac
Everything. Geopolitical conflicts don't happen in a vacuum, they don't spring out of thin air. the arms industry don't spend millions (5 million in Europe, ten times that in America) on lobbying on a whim, a vague hope that politics will just happen to turn out favouring war. — Isaac
You're advocating starting a war on the off-chance that your target might start one. And to not even see the link... Huge numbers of those children are starving because of American foreign policy. Again, to think these things are not connected. Western trade dominance, Western financial instruments, Western military imperialism... you think each is just coincidentally increasing, unrelated to the others? — Isaac
it is still the ONLY system that has led nations to a more balanced life for the people with less corruption endangering that people. US isn't the only nation in the world with "democracy", so your argument of pointing out "democracy" being "bad" as well does not really matter if my argument was that Russia just plays theatre of the nation being a democracy. To imprison and kill anyone that oppose you and call yourself a democracy, that isn't being done, even in a corrupt nation as the US. — Christoffer
Sounds an awful lot like the corrupt top 1% of the Soviet regime to me, just in new clothes. What exactly is different except the form of government on paper? — Christoffer
You think that we're not acting in Sweden right now? We're pulling large funds to increase our military, we have the island of Gotland that is a target of Russia to seize the Baltic sea area. You think US is the only one acting on this? You think no one else is affected? — Christoffer
The alternative for us in Europe is to be actually threatened by Russia if no action is taken. The US is an ally in this. Putin IS a bad man, his threats are out of date, his ideas are delusional misrepresentations of history. — Christoffer
I've already explained the reasons for this conflict and you don't seem to get it. — Christoffer
Listen to the experts on Russia and Putin — Christoffer
It seems to me that recognition of the two breakaway republics represent Putin’s current aim. That, plus negotiations that may induce the US to remove missile defense installations from EE. (This is his real sore point, and one that would be rational to meet.) …
I could not and cannot imagine that Putin would be so stupid as to invade Ukraine, bomb its cities, etc.,
I have not advocated starting a war. — Christoffer
US is an ally that we work together with to try and deescalate the conflict. — Christoffer
I agree, USA is really a villain internationally. This time however, it's not fucking imperialism in the way you describe it, it's not US "fault", it's a lunatic called Putin and his delusional Soviet dreams. — Christoffer
And the West has always despised the Slavic people, considering them second-class people. Biden is part of a tradition that is picking up where Hitler left off. — baker
Slave from Middle English, from Old French sclave, from Medieval Latin sclāvus (“slave”), from Late Latin Sclāvus (“Slav”), because Slavs were often forced into slavery in the Middle Ages. The Latin word is from Byzantine Greek Σκλάβος (Sklábos)
I understand that. But don't you agree that at this time, NATO has no desire to destabilize or threaten Russia in any way? — frank
Do you agree that NATO has primarily sought to limit Russian expansion? Or do you really think NATO wants to somehow undermine the health of the Russian state? — frank
Imperialism by financial means; as distinct from imperialism by military ones. — StreetlightX
Absolutely. I get that. So Ukraine just gets to be a pawn. — frank
And maybe invasion is the only way to draw a line in the sand.
But the irony is that if Russia hurts its own economy by drawing this line, it doesn't really win in the end. — frank
Can you expand more on this, or where I might find more information, thanks. — Amity
Immediate conflict and invasion have direct and dire consequences to the wellbeing of Ukrainians than any potential transformation has. Right now, civilians will have to flee, fight or be killed.
I'm not seeing how it even compares...
Putin's aggressive actions and belligerent behaviour are about as far from reasonable as you can get. NATO's role I thought more defensive...and protective? — Amity
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