We can speculate only so far.I'm kind of hoping there might be a more objective way to address the issue such as what the long term consequences for Ukraine, Russia, Europe, the US, and the rest of the world might be. — dclements
An interesting dynamic of the Ukraine-Russia conflict is that China is observing what is going on over there in order to help them what some of the issues they will have to deal with if and when they finally decided to attack Taiwan in order to get it back. — dclements
That's weird that you put it that way because I see China as more like the Confederacy and Taiwan as more like the North. After all, China is the one segregating their population by means of the type of treatment the various groups receive, with some of the treatment bordering on genocide. China sees the capitalism and freedom that makes up the Taiwanese society as a threat to the Communist party, just as Russia sees the same type of representational, western-leaning societal engineering going on in Ukraine as a threat to the One-Party regime in Russia.For the PRC Taiwan is basically the last remnants of the Civil War where the Kuomingtang retreated. It would be like if during the US Civil War the Confederacy would not have surrendered, but had retreated to present Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands and held high their flags on those islands to this day. — ssu
Oh I put that way for people to understand how it feels for Chinese communists that rule mainland China. Just to portray the hostility.That's weird that you put it that way — Harry Hindu
Speaking of speculation, I'm currently reading the Kindle book by novelist Ken Follett : NEVER. It was published in 2021, so its geopolitics is quite up-to-date for a work of fiction. Instead of The West versus Russia, it's The West (US primarily) versus China. Yet the level heads of both of the major powers are trying to defuse an insurrection in North Korea, which threatens to use its nukes. forcing a confrontation of the big boys. Hence the title. So China necessarily plays the role of peacemaker.Obviously China now sees how effective (or ineffective) the sanctions of the West are and will take that into consideration. And China is the obvious candidate to hold peace talks with Ukraine and Russia, as now Russia is quite dependent of China thanks to the sanctions. So for China, this all is good. Only if Russia collapses it's bad. — ssu
countries that seemed like they often couldn't agree on anything are starting to be more willing to work together (at least in the short term) after they realize that Ukraine isn't the only country Russia is willing to occupy. — dclements
The “Z” is regarded as particularly incendiary given it has been seen daubed on Russian tanks — Gnomon
Calling the West’s response to the love affair between Putin and the far right an overreaction greatly underestimates the extent to which the Kremlin and its state-controlled media use support of European politicians to legitimize Moscow’s explicitly anti-western foreign policy agenda: far-right politicians not only vote for pro-Kremlin policies in the EU parliament, they also take part in election observation missions — most notably the referendum for the annexation of Crimea and the “elections” in Ukraine’s Russian-controlled “people’s republics.” The Russian media uses these events and far-right leaders’ visits to Moscow to tout European support for Putin. Even Le Pen was an unknown in Russia until the Ukraine crisis and her outspoken public support for Putin. Now she is paraded as proof that there is some support for Putin’s policies in Europe. — Alina Polyakova
I think the "Z" doesn't come from a remodeled Swastike, but is the way Putin's regime hopes to instill patriotic fervour to the war. And of course, many Russians will support their troops.Apparently, the younger people of Russia are also less romantically nationalistic than Putin -- except for the neo-non-nazis (like the Olympic gymnast) who display a symbolic letter "Z", apparently as a remodeled Swastika. We can only hope that the younger more moderate people on both sides of the renewed Iron Curtain — Gnomon
Oh, I didn't mean that the crossed "Z" of a swastika (symbol of German nationalism) was literally or consciously re-shaped into a symbol of Russian nationalism. But the resemblance is interesting. :wink:I think the "Z" doesn't come from a remodeled Swastike, — ssu
But the resemblance is interesting — Gnomon
The Z was first spotted on Russian military vehicles, as were other letters including including O, X, A and V. They were often painted inside triangles, squares and other shapes. People also spotted other symbols, such as a triangle with two lines either side, a circle with three dots inside and a small triangle inside a larger triangle ...
Of course, the shape similarity between a graphic symbol of the invasion of Ukraine, and a symbol of the invasion of Poland is an inference in the mind of the beholder. I can't read the minds of the painters, so I'm just guessing. But the political significance of such a symbol may be obvious to anyone familiar with the history of Fascism. Do you see the connection?The "resemblance" is very interesting, indeed. But could it be that it's only in your mind? IMO, if anything, the swastika looks more like two stylized S's than Z's — Apollodorus
Of course, the shape similarity between a graphic symbol of the invasion of Ukraine, and a symbol of the invasion of Poland is an inference in the mind of the beholder. I can't read the minds of the painters, so I'm just guessing. — Gnomon
Incidentally, the swastika was used by many countries — Apollodorus
The swastika symbol /.../ is an ancient religious icon in various Eurasian cultures. It is used as a symbol of divinity and spirituality in Indian religions, including Hinduism, Buddhism and Jainism.
/.../
In the Western world, it was a symbol of auspiciousness and good luck until the 1930s
As far as I can tell, Putin and those in Russia that support his cause were hoping that they would A) be able to occupy Ukraine without much resistance and/or B) the West/NATO (as well as other countries wouldn't take much notice of the invasion.Basically the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has been a geopolitical earthquake that isn't at all over yet. Both NATO and EU have transformed a lot in only few days. And Russia has made a move that will define it's path for a very long time. The Russian Roulette has been played and the gun has fired. Who gets killed is the real question.
Obviously China now sees how effective (or ineffective) the sanctions of the West are and will take that into consideration. And China is the obvious candidate to hold peace talks with Ukraine and Russia, as now Russia is quite dependent of China thanks to the sanctions. So for China, this all is good. Only if Russia collapses it's bad. — ssu
Let's first think what Taiwan is for China.
For the PRC Taiwan is basically the last remnants of the Civil War where the Kuomingtang retreated. It would be like if during the US Civil War the Confederacy would not have surrendered, but had retreated to present Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands and held high their flags on those islands to this day. There in the Caribbean the former secessionists would now have prospered and continued with everything the Confederacy was about. If not at the present having anymore slaves, they would still at least have some kind of Apartheid-type segregation. All this would simply annoy the hell out of US politicians as the Confederacy on a small island would be "unfinished business" and the liberals would demand to end finally such blatant racism and a stain in the Americas. To get public support and a notch in the history books by finally squashing the rebels and ending segregation would be obvious temptation for any "Northern" politician.
For China Taiwan represents a similar annoyance and temptation.
Especially when Taiwan is a) more prosperous per capita than mainland China and b) it's now a democracy. It's existence is this annoying remark how weak China still is and where the American "line of islands" start. Yet this jingoistic bait has also it's drawbacks. First, if the US responds and gets angry (let's say the Chinese sink an American flat top) your facing all out war with the US. Second, even if the US only gives materiel support, invading an island can end up in a huge "Bay of Pigs times twenty"-fiasco, a failure that wouldn't only threaten the present leadership but perhaps the position of the whole Communist Party itself. An invasion of Taiwan could basically result in an Chinese version of the Gallipoli campaign: a humiliating costly defeat. And then it could ruin the economy, the lucrative trade China enjoys. And thus China is extremely closely looking at what is happening to Russia now. How effective are the sanctions. And how willing is the West to arm Ukraine. China can also look at how Putin, who has tried from 2008 to truly modernize the Russian armed forces, is now performing against a determined foe. — ssu
Yeah, I don't know much about what use to be called "The Harvest of Sorrow" where it has been estimated up to 20 to 30 million people died in Ukraine and other places in Russia from starvation from Stalin stealing wheat and other food from his people, but I'm pretty sure the descendants of those that went through it haven't forgotten.Conflict is a constant in the world order, new or old. There are political / economic / ethnic / religious / cultural fault lines all over the globe that regularly result in conflict, casualties, disruption, famine, various forms of collapse, and so on. This has been the case for decades, if not centuries. Just for example, the civil war in Sri Lanka between the Tamils and Sinhalese between 1983 and 2009. Most people in the world were not greatly bothered about it, but for the people who lived there a bad time was had by all. JUST one example among many.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia bothers far more people than the Tamil Tigers vs. the Sinhalese ever could, A) This is taking place on NATO's steps, if not on its porch. B) Russia (and the former USSR) are/were big-name enemies to several big-name states. The people of Ukraine, unlike Iraqis or Afghans are democratic westerners. Thanks to Stalin (famine), Hitler (invasion and genocide), Chernobyl (reactors go boom!), and now Putin we have seen great suffering in Ukraine. We are more predisposed to think kindly of them than say... the people of Nagorno Karabakh.
At least 10,000,000 people were in the Ukrainian diaspora. They are a visible ethnic group in many places. There are roughy 2.5 million people of Ukrainian descent in Canada and the United States. Their presence in many countries makes their suffering, courage, and cause-in-general more accessible than that of Sudan or Yemen.
The remarkable unity displayed by EU and Nato member adds to the immediacy of their needs. If instead, only Cyprus, Portugal and Norway were helping the Ukrainians, we would probably care less about them. — Bitter Crank
In a way I would like to see that happen but I have a feeling that is unlikely to happen. Putin is incredibly paranoid and I don't think anyone that doesn't like him can get anywhere near him. On top of that, it is hard to say what would happen in Russia if someone else seized power. It is hard to imagine someone worse than Putin, but there exist the possibility if Putin wasn't in charge then whomever replaced him might be just as bad.I'm hoping for a rebellion in Russia given the declining economy, government crackdown on media sources and the death of many thousand Russian sons in a senseless war against their Ukrainian cousins. — Harry Hindu
it is much more difficult to get one's place in the history books (and/or elevate your country to "super power status) without invading other countries that are unlikely able to stop your own armies. — dclements
..which tells what kind of a clusterfuck and a brainfart this "special military operation" has been.As far as I can tell, Putin and those in Russia that support his cause were hoping that they would A) be able to occupy Ukraine without much resistance and/or B) the West/NATO (as well as other countries wouldn't take much notice of the invasion. — dclements
China has a frontline seat into looking how the US and the West respond to these kinds of actions. And what ought to be noted that Taiwan (or the Republic of China) is for the US a Major non-NATO Ally. That means it will respond far more aggressively to defend Taiwan than with Ukraine., I think it makes China's realize it's plan of invading Taiwan and taking it through military force any time in the near future a more complex and difficult endeavor then they were hoping for. — dclements
If you mean when Russia attacked in 2014, yes. If you refer to the current "special military operation", then I'm not so sure.I could be wrong but also Taiwan's army is a bit more prepared for an invasion than Ukraine was when Russia attacked — dclements
Maybe Putin wants an even bigger share of food commodity markets? — Bitter Crank
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