:fire:

I'm gona steal that...

Many Europeans would just love to have a calm, peaceful and prosperous Russia, where entrepreneurs like Sergei Brin would stay and innovate new things. We don't have that with Russia. And many are eager to point out that Russia never has had democracy. — ssu

Having a democracy does not necessarily mean that a country will be peaceful and prosperous. Suppose the people vote in favor of a war? Then what?

What if a Presidential candidate came forward stating that he would never engage in a war of conquest with any nation? That means committing to a nuclear 'no first strike' policy which China has, incidentally.
Will he get elected? What if the candidate promised never to use the military to further the interests of that country abroad?

What if he promised he would never respond with nuclear weapons for any reason?

I am attempting to figure out the role of democracy in all of this.

The reality is that Russia needs leaders that simply will tell the Russians themselves that the old empire is over and lost for good. That Russia is just like the United Kingdom today, a country that has lost it's empire and nothing and nobody will get it back. That if Russians want prosperity, it comes through trade (for which you need good relations with the rest of the World), innovation and not through conquest. — ssu

That's a great idea, but remember the U.K. voted to get out from under the control of Brussels. So much for integration.

When you mean prosperity through trade of the kind that China is engaging in? How do trade wars figure in this?

NATO, EU, US, Russia, China, ..., what about the Ukrainians? They're the ones getting bombed, not NATO, EU, US, China, or Russia; rather, the bombing + invasion is on Russia's hands.
Putin demanded they don't become a NATO member, which they've come to terms with (big sigh on their behalf goes here :smile:). — jorndoe

I agree that Russia seems to be unnecessarily stalling based on what is public. I suspect, but can't be certain, that the proposed interim government is giving issues, and how soon and by what means they can be gotten rid of. Ukrainians want to be a mature democracy but aren't there yet and whatever happens in this area will set them back on that path. Then there's also issues of territory. The fact the Russians asked the Ukrainian soldiers in Marioupol to stand down, seems to hint towards their endgame.

I also wonder if such an order could even be effective because the relation between Dmytro Korchynsky and the government in Kiev is unknown to me. Based on what I've read in the past, he might not listen to Kiev whatever happens and his men are fighting in Mariupol.

NATO doesn't expand. Nations voluntarily join or they don't, and there are requirements for joining that must be met. I'd consider the Crimea event or the current invasion an expansion. — Hanover

Either you're unaware how the expansion happened or you're playing a semantic game. Which is it? Are you just taking issue with the word expand?

FYI

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2022/03/20/gps-0320-zelensky-on-negotiating-with-putin.cnn

Literally one million dead Iraqis later, on this anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq, now close to entering its third decade, one has to wonder what actual fucking authority the US or the UK have to talk about 'respecting sovereignty'.

Where are the devastating economic sanctions? Where are the calls to throw American leaders into gulags where they belong, right next to Putin? Fuck any and all selective liberal pseudo-tears over Ukraine.

Fill the air with lies so nobody knows what to think. That's what the exploiters do to control the public.

They do it for profit. Some cumquats do it for free. :lol:

Fill the air with lies so nobody knows what to think. That's what the exploiters do to control the public. — frank

So if 'the public' are being fed lies, you know they're lies how?

Are you not 'the public'? Are you CIA, MI5 maybe? No wait, it's Illuminati isn't it... I knew it.

Or possibly, are you just such an arrogant twat that you think whatever you've heard simply must be true because, unlike all those other dupes, you couldn't possibly be being fed a narrative, you wouldn't fall for that. It's only everyone else who falls for that.

Thanks. So territory seems the main issue. I think the southern strip of land also means Ukraine no longer has access to the sea.

Or possibly, are you just such an arrogant twat that you think whatever you've heard simply must be true because, unlike all those other dupes, you couldn't possibly be being fed a narrative, you wouldn't fall for that. It's only everyone else who falls for that. — Isaac

Well, to be fair, I'm falling for this narrative this very moment.

Fill the air with lies so nobody knows what to think. That's what the exploiters do to control the public. — frank

It's just damage control, I suspect. The idea is to combat the rapid depreciation of Mr Putin's allure in the West and elsewhere, as swift as the ruble's on the currency market.

They do it for profit. Some cumquats do it for free. :lol:

I agree there's a variety of motives here.

It's just damage control, I suspect. The idea is to combat the rapid depreciation of Mr Putin's allure in the West and elsewhere, as swift as the ruble's on the currency market. — Olivier5

This is simply not true. Putin's "allure" in the West is exactly the same as it was before: dictator, evil, murderer, Hitler, chemical weapons user, fascist and old soviet reactionary in addition to even older school Empirial Czarist as well.

His "allure" in the West hasn't "declined".

As for the rest of the world, China, India, Brazil, Africa etc. are staying neutral or then supporting Russia in buying gas and oil.

Indeed, EU's purchases of gas and oil far out-weigh any other sanctions or arms dealing with Ukraine.

For example, check out this infographic



If you're not actually stopping the flow of oil and gas ... you aren't really doing anything of significance against Russia's economy.

What would be significant is blocking off real, tangible intellectual property that Russia needs to function (single points of failure that are disproportionate points of leverage, such as in Soviet times) ... but, oopsie, we sent all the Western IPR made by our superior "freedom based creativity" to Communist China and other East-Asian countries that aren't about to stop sending anything China buys to China to stop Russia buying it from the Chinese.

All the West has area brands and "spanking" Russia by pulling out those brands just cedes market share to the Chinese. It's a capitalist wet dream for the entire pantheon of competing brands to just "go away" from the market, and Communist China definitely understands that part of capitalism ... to go take that market share.

However, to make things even worse about the infographic:

Brown box is other raw mineral commodities totally unaffected by sanctions as everyone needs these kinds of commodities, in particular China, and Russia offering these at even a slightly cheaper price, will be bought up, and the most that happens is global resource flows just change around a bit.

The pink box is petroleum derivatives, totally unaffected by sanctions, same reason as above.

The purple box is precious metals, again easy to sell and also just easy to stockpile as part of central bank holdings.

Yellow is food ... no one about to "not buy food" if they need it.

Beige and orange also food.

Red is wood products, again commodity not going anywhere on the international market.

Blue is capital equipment that, guaranteed, Russia isn't selling much of to Europe and likely those trade relations are totally unaffected by sanctions.

In short, pretty much the entire infographic of Russia exports are either totally unaffected by sanctions ... even by their "enemies" such as the EU sanctioning them, or then, at best, just re-orders international material flows a bit but in no way stops those Russian exports.

And since the war increases commodity prices generally speaking, even if Russia has to undercut competition in the markets it has access to (... like one of largest economies in the world, China, but also India isn't sanctioning Russia, and certainly not Russia's post-soviet allies that remain and Iran and so forth) ... is still selling at a larger profit than before the war, that then easily pays for the war.

People think this is Soviet collapse 2.0 ... depressing commodity prices (intentionally or just because cheap oil was plentiful back then) and restricting critical IPR (in particular computation) was a big part of the unravelling of the Soviet Union. If the Soviet Union was making bank on its core business of commodities then likely it could have kept people happier during its reform programs ... which it was only trying to do in the first place because, back then, IPR economy was king (and commodities ran on thin margins) and the whole Soviet system wasn't great at IPR style capitalism to constantly innovate the new bling people crave (you know, after they've been told they crave it by marketers).

But we're now at the end of the great capitalist "innovate your way out of your problems" 500 year run, and there isn't really any new "must have" gadgets that keep the "myth of progress" narrative going.

Westerners have cell phones ... so do Russians, and the "grass is greener" effect also no longer works as Russia has now tasted Western style capitalism and most Russians think they were better off under communism ... so, isn't that happening, certainly at least in the authoritarian component, just "democracy".

Zelensky is banning opposition parties. Weird.

“ For Life, Shariy Party, Nashi, Opposition Bloc, Left Opposition, Union of Left Forces, State, Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine, Socialist Party of Ukraine, Socialists Party and Volodymyr Saldo Bloc”.

https://www.axios.com/ukraine-ban-political-parties-russian-ties-af264ecd-9ad4-4e98-9f87-76f32300fd5f.html

His "allure" in the West hasn't "declined". — boethius

Oh it has, among the European left and even in the extreme right. Sympathy for the Kremlin is much lower, if there at all nowadays, in the rhetoric of a guy like Mélenchon in France, for instance. And for the first time for decades, the US, NATO and the EU appear vaguely competent, and more attractive than before Mr Putin's failed Anschluss on Ukraine.

On the - not entirely reasonable - assumption that NATO does not trigger a nuclear holocaust, everything this rather sobering article says strikes me as sound:

It is not for us to give Zelensky advice on what he should do on the ground, and at what point he should cut a deal. Instead, what we in the west should do is be clearer about what we can do. For example, we can't fast-track his country’s membership application for the EU. It is really quite dangerous to dangle this carrot in front of the Ukrainians at a time like this. France has been blocking North Macedonia and Albania's accessions. There is no way that the EU can fast-track Ukraine without fast-tracking the others.

...Another carrot we are dangling in front of the Ukrainians is weapons. Most of the German weapons that were promised never arrived. Future weapons deliveries are going to get harder because Nato does not want to confront the Russian military directly. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said that western arms convoys constitute a legitimate target in the war. We should expect western weapons supplies to Ukraine to dry up over time.

A stick that the Ukrainians are holding over our heads is the repeated assertion that after Putin takes Ukraine, we are next. I understand why he wants to spin that narrative. But it is not true. Putin’s radius of horror is limited to the Russo-sphere that is not in Nato: Ukraine, Georgia, maybe Moldova. Nato’s response to this war has surprised him, and it will be stationing an overwhelming number of troops and weapons on its eastern front. Invading a Nato country would be too risky, even for a man who takes calculated risks.

Putin can, however, win the war in Ukraine because he has the deadliest weapons, and is willing to target civilians. Once the western weapons supplies end, the odds in this war will once again favour Russia. Time is on Putin’s side. ... Europe can, and should, make a credible promise that we will welcome Ukrainian refugees in the millions. But our ability to help Ukraine win the war is limited. This is what we must tell Zelensky. The cheerleading has to stop.

https://www.eurointelligence.com/column/the-cheerleading-has-to-stop

Or:

• The idea that Ukraine will be admitted into NATO in the foreseeable future is dumb and laughable.
• The idea that Russia will expand it's attack into states beyond its traditional area of influence is dumb and laughable. I take this one back who knows what Putin will do.
• Sending weapons to Ukraine will probably rack up body counts without payoff.

None of this is anything worth celebrating, nor fixed, but worth incorporating over the cheat-beating celebrations of treating the war like a rooster-fight.

Either you're unaware how the expansion happened or you're playing a semantic game. Which is it? Are you just taking issue with the word expand? — Benkei

The latter. I'm drawing a distinction as to what happened. It's not as if western Europe and eastern Europe are both invaders into Ukraine fighting over the same prize. Western Europe has allowed countries to voluntarily apply for membership into NATO and decide how they wish to align. Russia has engaged in a hostile military takeover.

Whatever pressures the West has exerted to encourage NATO alignment doesn't equate to military force. My point being that if Russia wishes to justify their "expansion" into Ukraine as responsive to the West's "expansion" into Ukraine, that sounds like spin control, trying to assert an unjustified moral and logical equivalency.

What's been interesting about the Ukraine issue is the way that the narratives from Covid have been carried over - the idea of there being 'misinformation' which can simply be identified and expunged as if media were some kind of factory line quality control; the deifying of the status quo, where all the instruments of society become benevolent agents of public service; intense polemicism rendering every discussion in high contrast black and white...


A single 'other' enemy responsible entirely for the (unforeseen and unavoidable) harms, benevolent corporate and government agencies just desperately trying to serve humanity, frustrated only by a vocal minority of 'conspiracy theorists' who don't deserve to be included in the conversation...

...familiar plot?

Oh it has, among the European left and even in the extreme right. — Olivier5

OMG!!! Putin must be terrified!!!

But, even if that was true, there's clearly a big backlash to the neo-Nazi's and so on, otherwise the Western Media wouldn't constantly be saying we can't talk about it and people in this conversations wouldn't be all "shhhh, shhhh, hush, we don't mention the neo-Nazi's that helps Purit!" ... ok, well how does it help Putin if his "allure" is all gone?

...familiar plot? — Isaac

Completely familiar ... but even more familiar is the exact same script in Syria:

1. Russian army is incompetent, hahahahah
2. "Resistance" is winning the information war, so many videos of "resistance" victories online!
3. Gains Russian army are making mean nothing
4. The people Russia are fighting are freedom fighters, not a single fanatical extremist among them
5. We need to pour arms into the situation to give Russia their Afghanistan! Hurrah!!!
6. Russia is winning ... but playing unfair!!! Boohoohooo
7. Chemical attack is going to happen
8. Anyday now, chemical attack since Russia is winning on the ground, but Putin and Assad are so evil they'll use chemical warfare when their wining! (obviously if they were actually losing we'd just let that play out into a failed state).
9. Chemical attack is coming ... it's coming ... Assad and Putin are just that crazy, and they know we'll be upset about a surprise chemical attack!!! And they know we'll easily find out!! And it will isolate Russia on the world stage and totally backfire!! But nothing can stop their evil machinations!!!
10. Chemical attack! Chemical attack!

We're on step 9 of this play.

there's clearly a big backlash to the neo-Nazi's — boethius

Indeed, the Hitler-wannabe failed Anschlusser is being dragged in the mud by media the world over. You won't see any of that from St Petersbourg though.

The backlash is people getting into severe cognitive dissonance which disrupts the war horny trance like state they were in previously, when they encounter the fact the "neo-Nazi" problem isn't some fringe skinheads in some seedy bar, but a whole institution.

Which, please pay attention to the "black sun" which doesn't even have any apologist "it's just a rune" or "ancient Sanskrit symbol" whatever explanation, but literally created by the SS for the SS.



And also discover, at least the US and Canada (... maybe not other NATO members like Germany, who are the experts on neo-Nazi's after all and arbitrate whether they exist or not in today's media landscape) exposed to be breaking their own laws, which was military aid was contingent on irregular forces not doing any fighting or getting any weapons or ammunition ... which journalists could just go debunk in like, a single day's investigation?



And discover ... that when people talk about this problem going back to 2014 ... there's times and BBC reportings on this very thing:

January First, is one of the most important days in their callender. It marks the birth of Stepan Bandera, the leader of the Ukrainian partisan forces during the second world war.

The rally was organized by the far right Svoboda Party. Protests marched amidst a river of torches, with signs saying "Ukraine above all else".

But for many in Ukraine and abroad, Bandera's legacy is controversial. His group, the organization of Ukrainian Nationalists sided with Nazi German forces [but fortunately we have modern Germany to tell us there's no connection!] before breaking with them later in the war. Western Historians also say that his followers carried out massacres of Polish and Jewish civilians.

[... interview with a guy explaining the importance of Stepan Bandera's birthday party ]

Ukraine is a deeply divided country, however, and many in its East and South consider the party to be extremist. Many observers say rallies like today's torch light march only add to this division [really?!?! you don't say...]. — BBC

Or discover this one which interviews the FBI talking about these terrorists training with Azov ... but ... wait, "the war on terror" doesn't extend to white terrorists training "oversees".

And has the quote (recorded on video) from one of the recruiters:

We're Aryans, and we will rise again — totally not a neo-Nazi, according to the German government

But ... the president is Jewish and is allied with these forces, who don't even hate Jews all that much! So obviously you can have Nazi's if their friendly Nazi's (to your side).



This one's just adorable.

Yep.

Step 11- millions of refugees resulting from the situation look to their noble benefactors for succor.

Step 12- noble benefactors: "fuck off, we've got a new crisis on the front page now"

Indeed, the Hitler-wannabe failed Anschlusser is being dragged in the mud by media the world over. — Olivier5

Wow, I'm flattered. The entire world's media dragging Putin's name through the mud, but little old me on an obscure (no offense) internet forum mustn't stray for a second from 24/7 condemnation of him and him alone lest my failure be interpreted as tacit support and bring the whole project crashing down. I didn't realise I was so influential.

What if a Presidential candidate came forward stating that he would never engage in a war of conquest with any nation? — FreeEmotion

Well, I guess Putin would be the first person declaring that! He's just protecting ethnic Russians and welcomes them who want to join mother Russia. Just like Milosevic did for the Serbs. And uses his military on special military operations to stop a genocide perpetrated by neo-nazis.

The age when leaders truthfully admitted that they engaged in wars of conquest is ancient history.

Step 11- millions of refugees resulting from the situation look to their noble benefactors for succor.

Step 12- noble benefactors: "fuck off, we've got a new crisis on the front page now" — Isaac

I totally forgot about all those unpaid extras! Can't make a war epic without them.

I feel so silk stocking liberal right now, you have no idea.

But yes, people genuinely believe this current New cycle won't go the way of terrorism, Afghanistan, WMD's, Iraq, banks stealing trillions of USD after corrupting the entire system leading to it's crashing and a public bailout and zero accountability, emails, grab em by the pussy, emails, piss tape, the leader of the free world threatening to turn another country into a lake of fire as foreplay for some sort of online bromance, US mass riots and looting and buildings burning, and war on drugs needing more war part, invasion of the world's superpower's capital buildings, mass shooting of the week, ice-cream flavours, Chavez, Iran, Chavez, Iran, Maduro, Iran, China pivot, migrants drowning all the time, opioids scandal, Lybia, sporadic but most important political identity crisis to ever happen, Syrira, Covid, Afghanistan, toxic male executives all the time (guilty as charged though ... and this one will make a comeback, just like the Red Army and cold war paranoia!).

If you're not actually stopping the flow of oil and gas ... you aren't really doing anything of significance against Russia's economy. — boethius

An oil embargo has been talked about by EU foreign ministers. For example Poland is openly demanding it and naturally many countries are opposing it. At least yet.

You have to make infrastructure investments and quite a dramatic realignment to stop Russian gas and oil trade. But it is totally possible. It simply cannot be done in weeks. But in few years, totally possible.

But yes, people genuinely believe this current New cycle won't go the way of terrorism, Covid, Syrira, Lybia, emails, grab em by the pussy, invasion of the world's superpower's capital buildings, Afghanistan, China pivot, migrants drowning all the time, opioids scandal, toxic male executives (guilty as charged though ... and this one will make a comeback, just like the Red Army!). — boethius

An oil embargo has been talked about by EU foreign ministers. For example Poland is openly demanding it and naturally many countries are opposing it. At least yet. — ssu

I guess post it when it actually happens.

You have to make infrastructure investments and quite a dramatic realignment to stop Russian gas and oil trade. But it is totally possible. It simply cannot be done in weeks. But in few years, totally possible. — ssu

Agreed that some infrastructure adjustments would be needed if the EU stopped importing ... but I'm not sure by how much, as Russia has been investing massively in a fleet of nuclear icebreakers, which, I assume, is to be able to ship out oil and gas from the arctic; and that capacity may be already there, at least most of the year, if the tankers can just show up.

Agreed that some infrastructure adjustments would be needed if the EU stopped importing ... but I'm not sure by how much, as Russia has been investing massively in a fleet of nuclear icebreakers, which, I assume, is to be able to ship out oil and gas from the arctic; and that capacity may be already there, at least most of the year, if the tankers can just show up. — boethius

They have already oil & gas pipelines to China and likely will build more:

But yes, people genuinely believe this current New cycle won't go the way of terrorism, Covid, Syrira, Lybia, emails, grab em by the pussy, invasion of the world's superpower's capital buildings, Afghanistan, China pivot, migrants drowning all the time, opioids scandal, toxic male executives (guilty as charged though ... and this one will make a comeback, just like the Red Army!). — boethius

I think that Covid pandemic and it's restrictions did change your life a bit, and of course the current crisis will partly contribute to the run away inflation. Gas, petroleum, food will become more expensive. Something people will notice daily.

Yes, we will surely soon forget this thread and the media can focus on other issues, but as long as the war goes on, the effects of it will be there. And even if the war would tone down as it did after 2015 for seven years or there would be a cease-fire that held, the World has already changed.

but little old me on an obscure (no offense) internet forum mustn't stray for a second from 24/7 condemnation of him and him alone lest my failure be interpreted as tacit support and bring the whole project crashing down. I didn't realise I was so influential. — Isaac

Don't flatter yourself. Nobody cares that you post here 24/7.

the war horny trance — boethius

Can you at least stop using obscene words like that all the time? I find it disgusting.

Can you at least stop using obscene words like that all the time? I find it disgusting. — Olivier5

I find cheerleading a war to continue and for arms to be poured in to fuel it with zero consideration if that even helps the victims of the war and simply pre-supposing any criticism of the righteous war and arms dealers propping it up is unrighteous as we know it's righteous even if it doesn't, and shouldn't, encounter any criticism of that premise at all, is disgusting.

We all have our own tastes, don't we.

I don't even like ice-cream at all.