https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/

I think Ukraine can outlast Russia in a war of attrition. They have high morale, the moral high ground, and Europe and America in their corner. — RogueAI

War of attrition means running out of resources required to continue war.
I don't believe EU and US will supply Ukraine for ever, Ukrainians are constantly barking how they need more weapons and more financial aid, while they do so Russia is advancing little by little.

If Russia captures maritime part of Ukraine, Ukraine is free to capitulate because what will be left is not worth fighting for.
Luhansks and Donetsk are the most industrious regions, and maritime part of the country is required for export, therefore Since Ukraine is loosing these regions, there is little left that is worth financing from EU or US, instead EU\US is likely to force Ukraine into peace if Russians capture southern part of country.

In my view, the US/NATO are as much to blame for this war as Russia. — Benkei

The Ukrainian NATO membership threat again...? It's already been conceded both by NATO and Ukraine.

Zelenskyy calls again for meeting with Putin ‘to end the war’ (Al Jazeera; Apr 23, 2022)



That story at least came and went. The invasion is a snaffle, a grab (or attempted anyway), orchestrated by Putin, perhaps planned well ahead or otherwise simmering for a year prior.

The digital onslaught, which Microsoft said began one year prior to Russia's Feb. 24 invasion, may have laid the groundwork for different military missions in the war-torn territory, researchers found. — Microsoft discloses onslaught of Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine (Reuters · Apr 27, 2022)

Except, this time around (unlike the Crimean "military operation"), Putin got a bloody nose (and perhaps lost a bit of pride, who knows).

War of attrition means running out of resources required to continue war.
I don't believe EU and US will supply Ukraine for ever, Ukrainians are constantly barking how they need more weapons and more financial aid, while they do so Russia is advancing little by little. — SpaceDweller

On the other hand, Russia simply cannot sustain similar losses it has experienced in this short time. The army is basically being ruined and they likely after one month, they simply have to take a breather and go to the defensive.

It's not the Soviet Army anymore. Furthermore, Putin has in the classic dictator style divided the armed forces into the Army and the National Guard, which the latter is commanded by Putin's friend and Yeltsin's former bodyguard Viktor Zolotov, a welder, who hasn't officer training. (Just shows that personal ties are far more important than ability.)

It's telling that the National Guard, which is tasked to quell demonstrators etc. is equal if not bigger in size of the Russian Ground Forces. Then the FSB has it's own troops. And then you have all kinds of power centers with various armed forces, even the railway troops (crucial for Russian logistics).

Then there's naturally the Navy (which has experienced it's flagship of the Black Sea fleet being sunk) and the Air Force (which hasn't shown a spectacular effort) and the Strategic Rocket Forces (which by their existence have made that Biden or NATO won't send troops to Ukraine or deploy no-fly zones).

The combined effort and resources of NATO outmatch the resources of Russia, so if the Ukrainians keep on fighting, things look good to them.

Just like in the interview @RogueAI gave above, Russian Ground Forces will be spent after this offensive and they simply have to build their forces up, which will take far more than just weeks to do.

Yeah, unfortunately it's about average for some work sites I've been to as well, including a US National Guard company I worked with. On the upside, someone who didn't want to deploy with someone who might be drunk when called for support turned them in and they were pretty severely punished, which does not seem to be the case for all militaries (Russia seemingly, certainly not the ANA, where you could muster in the middle of a heroin nod and not be exceptional).

I also picked up a hitch hiker in a blizzard once who was actually the operator of a plow truck that had run out gas. He offered to hold the wheel for me while we "blasted some nips" from his shopping bag of little whiskey bottles. I was pretty young then so I didn't think to ask him to consider if there might be some connection between the whiskey and joints, and his managing to run out of gas in the middle of his shift...

It's good that you mention Trump, because that hasn't gone unnoticed. And even if Johnson's UK wants to be part of the defense of Europe (through NATO), being out of the EU does mean a lot. (Just like, well, Canada)

I wouldn’t trust a populist like Johnson as far as I can throw him. Also he has been actively hostile to the EU and many of his backers including in his own political party and government would like the EU to collapse.

I know that at this point, the stability of NATO isn’t threatened, but if a few bad political steps occur, it could be. I don’t think the EU will take that risk.

Here in the U.K. there are concerns about the Orbanisation of U.K. politics. Which is moving at a scary pace at the moment. Just yesterday a bill was passed removing the independence of the electoral commission, which is now answerable to the government.

Remember, Russia attacked Ukraine once and nobody thought much about it.

Why is this time so different?

I would think it is the explicit attack on the Kiev, with the rhetoric that Ukraine should not exist, which is different. Following the annexation of Crimea, I realised how nasty Putin was and was surprised how little Western leaders seemed to care.

:100:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/donetsk-separatists-desperate-draft-campaign-empties-streets-of-men-ukraine

Why is this time so different? — frank

"fool me once fool me twice ..."?

I don't think nations are usually that wise. They usually act on the basis of the most immediate concerns.

Lol US$33B to Ukraine.

Because keeping American Empire alive is far more important than helping shitty squalor-living, terrorized-by-cops, drowning-in-debt, unable-to-rent, American citizens.

It makes sense tho the American state exists to enrich its plutocrat masters so who cares about its citizens lol.

At this point Ukraine is literally an American vassal state.

I wonder when the last Ukrainian will drop dead so the US can achieve its geo-strategic aims. Seems like a fair trade. Anyone not horrified by American escalation does not give a single shit about Ukraine or Ukrainians and should probably stop pretending.

Collectively, every single war-mongerer and revanchist deserves to drop dead before a single Ukrainian does. Equally, American war dollars ought to fuck off home forever.

What's bizarre is that you think 33 billion is a lot. They spent more than a trillion on covid19.

It would cost about US$20b to end homelessness in the US.

And yes, the biggest transfer of wealth into the hands of billionaires by means of legislation took place thanks to Covid, there's nothing surprising about that.

And you are right. $33b isn't alot. Which is why the US will undoubtedly send more, as it keeps doing. This is what, the fourth tranche of money and weapons so far? I mean you can't even buy a single Twitter with that pocket-change.

What's bizarre is that you think 33 billion is a lot. — frank

It's a lot in Ukraine. About the same as their total annual government expenditure.

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Ukraine/government_spending_dollars/

I was looking for this stat! But I was getting weird sites so I gave up. But yes. That was what I wanted to post when I said that Ukraine is effectively a US state without representation. They get to die to fight in an American war. How fun for them.

20 billion of that is for weapons and only 3 for humanitarian aid, apparently. :sad:

https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-looks-congress-oligarchs-more-cash-help-ukraine-2022-04-28/

Someone(s) at Lockheed and Raytheon is throwing a grand party right now.

Which is great because these guys are keeping the American economy going. Or at least the dead foreigners which they help produce.

Regardless of everything else, you've got to question the sanity of throwing 20 billion more in weapons into this tinderbox.

Is it 20 billion? I think it's a tinder box if they give too much, and another box if they give too little and Putin decides he can do more of this.

But I get your point.

It would cost about US$20b to end homelessness in the US. — StreetlightX

Really? You mean if we invested it in crypto and made trillions out of it? We'd need to invest in mental health facilities to end homelessness in the US.

You mean if we invested it in crypto and made trillions out of it? — frank

Ahahahahahahahaaaha

Budget to stop the impending irreversible death of the planet thanks to climate change: $44b

Budget to help accelerate the death of the planet: $33b

Securing US hegemony: Priceless.

No# of dead Ukranians: who cares?

No# of dead Ukranians: who cares? — StreetlightX

But you care very much for them, don't you?

It would cost about US$20b to end homelessness in the US. — StreetlightX

Uh, how???

Basically this isn't just a thing that will go away with throwing money at it: you do have to have truly effective programs and a lot of prejudices have to be gotten over with to really minimize the problem. The US has really a lot of problems in creating effective welfare programs. Just look at how costly health care system is and how weak it is compared to other countries.

Do you know how much just California puts into fighting homelessness? If there's one thing American cannot do and what will end up in a racket, it's welfare programs:

The state budget provided a total of $7.2 billion ($3.3 billion General Fund) in 2021‑22 to about 30 homelessness‑related programs across various state departments. - The Governor’s 2022‑23 budget proposes $2 billion one‑time General Fund over two years that is intended to address near‑term homelessness needs while previously authorized funds for long‑term housing solutions are implemented: $1.5 billion for behavioral health “bridge” housing and $500 million for the Encampment Resolution Grants Program.

So that's nearly 10 billion in just one year in just California. Someone surely is profiting from those programs.

Regardless of everything else, you've got to question the sanity of throwing 20 billion more in weapons into this tinderbox. — Baden

So better that Putin would win and create new "People's Republics" that could join later Mother Russia?

It's up to the Ukrainian to fight or not.

Afghanistan is the perfect example how important that will to fight is. Taliban's budget wasn't much compared to the billions the US poured into the country.

Regardless of everything else, you've got to question the sanity of throwing 20 billion more in weapons into this tinderbox. — Baden

We are drifting into a brittle situation where we are gleefully arming Ukraine with heavy weaponry. I support helping Ukraine fight off Russia, but I can see a plausible chain of escalation that ends very badly.

So better that Putin would win and create new "People's Republics" that could join later Mother Russia? — ssu

Better that this gets deescalated. My expectation is the more you escalate it, the more Putin will demand as a penalty for the extra dead Russians you create. That penalty being more dead Ukrainians and harsher terms for ending the conflict. Probably the only route to this 'People's Republic' you refer to is, ironically, the complete decimation of Ukraine caused by an indefinite extension of the war fuelled by an indefinite influx of foreign weapons: A neat way to give cover to Putin to completely destroy and subjugate the country. As a bonus you might get to start WW III.

We are drifting into a brittle situation where we are gleefully arming Ukraine with heavy weaponry. I support helping Ukraine fight off Russia, but I can see a plausible chain of escalation that ends very badly. — RogueAI

Yes, it's all about probabilities, of course, and my take is that the probability of this being a constructive rather than a deductive move is very low. Talking heads in Russia are already saying WW III would be preferable to defeat in Ukraine. Do we want to bet the house that Putin doesn't feel the same way? I wouldn't. I don't think it will go there, but I also don't think Putin will back down. So, ball back in our court.

Right, because if Ukrainians end up having to defend themselves with old Kalashnikovs and improvised explosives, less of them will die.

In general, asymmetrical wars cause more military and civilians casualties for the disadvantaged side, by a pretty significant margin.

Given Russian planes will continue to bomb Ukrainian cities, it seems like a SAM system that will either convince the Russians not to fly sorties over those cities, or will shoot down their planes if they insist on trying, seems like a way to keep Ukrainians alive. Same goes for the more destructive shelling; given it doesn't seem to be stopping any other way, my guess is the people having their apartments randomly destroyed might appreciate a longer range howitzer with guided munitions that can silence those guns.

In any event, close to half of it is economic aid, food shipments, etc.

Our immediate reaction to this war should have been the realization that we fucked up and misjudged Russia's determination to get Ukraine to bend to its will, and then we should have been focusing on building alliances with countries like India and China, who Russia actually cares about, to put diplomatic pressure on it to 1) agree to a ceasefire 2) engage productively in talks in that context. Instead we went it alone, got nowhere, and are now doubling down on a failed approach.



You're completing missing the escalation point. Russia has strategic objectives, which don't necessarily involve levelling Ukraine. If they had got what they wanted initially, they wouldn't even have started the war and you wouldn't need SAM missiles to protect Ukrainians. But if we keep fomenting the situation, maybe you can let me know what's going to protect them from a tactical nuclear strike. Prayers?