We're in an interglacial period of a large scale ice age. Specifically, we're at the end of an interglacial awaiting reglaciation. — Tate
This suggests that we are around the middle of an interglacial period, not at the end of one. Can you cite a reference for your claim that we are at the end of an interglacial period? — Janus
The conventional wisdom for sometime has been 500-3000 years. The trigger is cold winters in the northern hemisphere. — Tate
C'mon, man. My sources are all books and articles. You're looking for an internet blurb. Be a human, why don't you? — Tate
You linked the source. If you have others, then quote them to back up your claims, Otherwise you cannot show your opinions to be anything of greater authority than those of just one more opinionated dude on the internet. — Janus
This is a study from 2013 about summer insolation reglaciation triggering. It upholds the standard view that we're fairly close to a trigger point now since we know summer insolation is at a minimum.
If you want a simpler narrative, I would advise a climatology textbook. There are some good ones out there — Tate
The article also in no way contradicts the wikipedia statement that we've already delayed reglatiation by some 500 000 years or more. — boethius
It means change is ahead no matter what we do. Civilization emerged during a relatively serene period. It's first big test will be whatever happens in the next few centuries. — Tate
From unmanageable global warming to fine-tuning climate, — Agent Smith
That's not what's happening. — Tate
But if you already know, how can I make a choice? — Mr. Anderson
Because you didn't come here to make the choice, you've already made it. You're here to try to understand why you made it. I thought you'd have figured that out by now. — The Oracle
The Wikipedia article is wrong. The same information shows up in the article on the Milankovitch cycle and it's superscripted with "verification failed". — Tate
More recent work suggests that orbital variations should gradually increase 65° N summer insolation over the next 25,000 years.[failed verification][failed verification] — Milankovitch cycles - Wikipedia
Earth's orbit will become less eccentric for about the next 100,000 years, so changes in this insolation will be dominated by changes in obliquity, and should not decline enough to permit a new glacial period in the next 50,000 years.[38][39] — Milankovitch cycles - Wikipedia
The thing you claim is contradicted ... is literally repeated the very next statement. — boethius
Again, if humans interfere in a system the pattern may diverge wildly from what was there before. If we damn a river the patterns of fish migration may stop, even if they have been occurring for thousands of years. — boethius
It's supposed to follow from the portion that failed verification. — Tate
More recent work suggests that orbital variations should gradually increase 65° N summer insolation over the next 25,000 years.[failed verification][failed verification] — Milankovitch cycles - Wikipedia
In glaciology, ice age implies the presence of extensive ice sheets in both northern and southern hemispheres.[3] By this definition, Earth is currently in an interglacial period—the Holocene. The amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emitted into Earth's oceans and atmosphere is predicted to prevent the next glacial period for the next 500,000 years, which otherwise would begin in around 50,000 years, and likely more glacial cycles after. — Ice age
We both agree that the planet would normally be heading towards reglatiation — boethius
The issue at hand is the effect of human interference; in particular dumping billions of tons of carbon every year into the atmosphere and carbon cycle that would not otherwise get there, resulting in higher CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere than any point in the last millions of years. — boethius
We both agree that the planet would normally be heading towards reglatiation
— boethius
Thank you. — Tate
For decades now, scientists have known, just from looking at the geological record, that the reglaciation should start sometime in the next few centuries. That means glaciers come back down and cover Chicago. It means the UK is under a sheet of ice. This was disturbing news when it was first discovered, and we now know quite a bit more about how it works, what the trigger is, and so forth.
We don't presently know if increased CO2 will cause us to miss the trigger, or if reglaciation will begin anyway. There are aspects of the question that we don't even know how to model right now.
No, it's not simple. — Tate
It would probably be prudent to put the brakes on CO2 emissions, like completely. — Tate
That's just not true. I've explained that several times now — Tate
There are aspects of the question that we don't even know how to model right now.
No, it's not simple. — Tate
We are in an ice age guys. Get yourself up to speed. — Tate
I don't think we should back down from stating scientific facts because someone could imply something we disagree with. — Tate
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