AND THAT PROVES MY POINT. Thank you. :cheer:Vichy France officially surrendered to Nazi occupation and continued to fight a strong civilian resistance. — Isaac
I'm not sure if literally on day 2 people were talking that. You have to give a reference to that. — ssu
Analysis: Russia's economic defences likely to crumble over time under sanctions onslaught — Reuters
Russian economic collapse will be hard to avoid — Reuters, February 28th, 2022
Putin’s War in Ukraine Could Mean the Collapse of Russia
Ukraine War Presages Russia’s Inevitable Collapse - — 1945
Putin’s Blunder
Ukraine Will Make Russia Regret This War — Foreign Affairs, February 25th, 2022
Could Ukraine be Putin’s Afghanistan? — Brookings institute, February 25th, 2022
Invasion of Ukraine could cause societal collapse in Russia | Expert explains Putin's miscalculation — CTV news, youtube
Russia's Economic Collapse: How Sanctions & War are Crushing Putin - — TLDR News, youtube
Russia Economy Heading For Collapse — Bloomberg Markets and Finance, youtube
Russia’s Looming Economic Collapse — The Atlantic
How close is Russia to collapse? — The Spectator
Russians Fleeing As Nation Faces Economic Collapse — Forbes
The sad fact is that if Putin had ended with Crimea and not had started a war with Ukraine for Novorossiya, likely the World would have de facto moved on. But I guess the mass graves and torture chambers don't tell anything for you.Why not Crimea? Because it doesn't fit your narrative. — Isaac
Mainly on the hope of the sanctions than the Ukraine military defeating them in open battle. The thinking was that Ukrainian could only fight successfully with an insurgency. The idea of Russia's "New Afghanistan" makes this point.The mechanism changes, but the prediction of "collapse" was literally on day two of the invasion. — boethius
Even before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine earlier today, several commentators, including former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, argued convincingly that a Russian occupation of more of Ukraine, perhaps including Kyiv, would lead to an insurgency like that which the Soviet Union faced in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
Notice the wording of "resistance". When you compare to what is happening now, it's not about an Afghan type resistance.I believe the United States and NATO should help the Ukrainian resistance but we should understand the potential consequences, risks, and costs up front. Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine could well prove to be another geopolitical catastrophe for Russia but only if we help the Ukrainian resistance.
Cracking on, sir, as ordered. — unenlightened
AND THAT PROVES MY POINT. Thank you. :cheer: — ssu
Yet there in Crimea too the totalitarian system of Putin's Russia is evident and the treatment of the Tatars is telling. The annexation has led to the detention and disappearance of dissenters, the persecution of ethnic and religious minorities and the stifling of the media. The going on in Donetsk and Luhansk has been even worse. — ssu
What is the military value of taking some random airfield and ringing it with troop protection? — apokrisis
Only “obvious” to you for some reason. — apokrisis
Then why does every media report find the airbridge story to be plausible? — apokrisis
No one rules out the talk of establishing an early airbridge as “impossible” due to AA defences, just risky ... — apokrisis
So we continue to have the mystery of why secure a working airbridge ... — apokrisis
... your persistent refusal to answer that question directly. — apokrisis
Mainly on the hope of the sanctions than the Ukraine military defeating them in open battle. The idea of Russia's "New Afghanistan" makes this point. — ssu
Denying its use to the enemy, securing it for future use, etc. — Tzeentch
Also, what would air assault troops be using an airfield for? Landing helicopters perhaps? — Tzeentch
I'm saying that Nazi supporters are basically Nazis. — unenlightened
Pragmatic reasoning based on your ideologically-inspired goals, questionable as anybody else’s. — neomac
What is the well-being of the people? — neomac
Don’t I show compassion for the well-being of “the people there” if I show my support for a Ukrainian feelings against Russian oppression — neomac
Why should I “solely” be concerned for the well-being of the people there, to prove that I’m a compassionate outsider? — neomac
How do you think is capable to “solely” be concerned for the well-being of the people there? — neomac
it can be a means to achieve “humanitarian goal” if by “humanitarian goal” you are referring to human rights as we, in western democracies, understand them and sovereignty can be a pre-condition for the implementation of state apparatuses supporting human rights. — neomac
Just bomb it if you need to deny its use. — apokrisis
Your story was there was no intended future use at all. — apokrisis
Kyiv was a ruse to fix Ukrainian forces who might otherwise head for the Donbas. — apokrisis
So why would Russia fly crack paratroopers to the front line with the very important job of protecting a transport airfield so no one with bombs might decide to hurt it. — apokrisis
Your claims of military expertise are just so laughable. — apokrisis
I challenged your story that the Russian attempt to secure an airfield somehow proved the Russian intentions towards Kiev - something for which you haven't provided a shred of evidence. — Tzeentch
At around 6:00 PM on February 24th, 2022, head of Bellingcat (a widely respected international group of investigative journalists) Christo Grozev reported that 18 Russian Il-76 military transport planes were flying from Pskov to Kyiv. However, it soon became apparent that events were not unfolding according to the scenario established by the Russians. The first paratroopers did not manage to accomplish their objective and the Ils changed their course to the Belarusian city of Gomel. Later, after establishing control over the airfield, the Russians tried to repair the runway. However, this also proved to be impossible due to the constant fighting, which prevented the Russians from implementing their plan logistically. Instead of landing on the threshold of Kyiv, several thousand Russian paratroopers were forced to advance on the Ukrainian capital on their own.
Russian propaganda interprets the events in a profoundly different way. As early as the afternoon of February 25th, 2022, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Antonov airport had been seized the day before after a successful operation involving 200 helicopters, the suppression of all Ukrainian air defense systems and the complete isolation of the landing area from the air. According to the Russian version of events, 200 paratroopers allegedly landed, fought a successful battle, captured the airfield and the military base, repelled all Ukrainian counterattacks, facilitated the landing of Russia’s main forces and defended the facility without losing a single soldier. At the same time, 200 “Ukrainian nationalists” were purportedly eliminated during the operation.
The scale of the attack, particularly in relation to the number of helicopters, is wildly overstated and not supported by any existing evidence. Russian propaganda tried to cover up the failure of the landing by describing an attack on an absurd scale. At that time, Russian armor convoys had entered Hostomel. After connecting the remnants of the first Russian landing group with the rest of the airborne forces and reinforcements supplied by additional army units, the airport came under the control of the Russian army.
The fixation of Russian propagandists on the number 200 has a history of its own that goes back as far as the Incident at the Pristina airport in June 1999, when 200 Russian airborne troops seized the international airport of Pristina (the capital of the Republic of Kosovo). The incident was also considered to be a “pre-emptive" operation that took place surrounded by enemy forces, namely actual NATO troops, not imagined ones. Russia assigned an epochal historical significance to the incident, calling it "the beginning of the transition to an independent foreign policy."
The victory in Hostomel was supposed to be a triumph of the Russian military and constitute a new milestone in Russian geopolitics. These goals were not achieved, but Russia is not used to departing from a story that it has already announced as factual. Therefore, the myth engineering shifted its focus to an unequal battle. Stories about the "200 Spartans" and the "heroes of Hostomel" began to circulate in Russian social networks, including a poem that was written in their honor which later would later become a song.
In mid-July 2022, Russia published a video with footage of both the landing in Mozyr, Belarus and the 45th Separate Guards Special Forces Brigade (based in Kubinka, near Moscow) disembarking at the Antonov airport. The military personnel of this airborne unit did actually occupy Hostomel, but they most likely entered the village after crossing into Ukraine from Belarus after February 24th, 2022 along with the armored convoys. Certain Russian brigades were also swapped out in order to further serve Russian propaganda narratives. Instead of the decimated 31st Brigade, whose participation in the assault has been confirmed by Ukrainian and foreign sources, Russian media widely glorified the 45th Brigade, which did not suffer devastating losses. Despite their best efforts, Russian propaganda outlets could not change the factual reality of the events - Russia had lost the battle, despite its own superiority in manpower and equipment.
The architect of the military operation to storm the Antonov airport remains unknown. However, the course of the actual battle, the results of the battle and Russia’s attempts to rewrite history are evidence to the fact that the authors did not give adequate consideration to the impending assault. On February 27th, 2022, the Ukrainian Security Service released documents recovered from soldiers of the Russian National Guard that had been killed near Hostomel, including call signs, planned maneuvers, conventional designations, ciphers, and more. In addition to the general utility these documents supplied to the Ukrainian special services, the information provides further supporting evidence for the idea of a planned Russian blitzkrieg. Russian units tasked with dispersing Ukrainian rallies and protests were just behind the initial invasion forces leading the assault into Ukraine, as Russian strategists did not anticipate they would encounter serious resistance.
https://rusaggression.gov.ua/en/russian-occupiers-fail-to-secure-their-foothold-in-the-attack-on-kyiv-eb11ccc699f8e6de615c66aafee4b5bb.html
Not in isolation, no. The Russians could be liberators come to free the people from tyrannical rule, they'd still be the invaders. You have to have some clear notion of the relative harms to pick sides, it's not sufficient just to say one side is being invaded. — Isaac
I'm not struggling with that, personally, so you'll have to explain a bit more about the difficulties you're having. — “Isaac
How? I don't see the mechanism. Representation is definitely an important tool, but that's not the same thing as sovereignty. — Isaac
You are so funny. Making shit up off the top of your head. Read and weep…. — apokrisis
Playing devil's advocate: — neomac
- Expansion of NATO (Sweden and Finland) possibly Ukraine — neomac
- End of economic cooperation between Russia-Germany (destruction of North stream) — neomac
- Militarization of Europe — neomac
- Western Russophobia & military humiliation of Russia — neomac
- Besides boosting American companies selling weapons and shale gas, of course. — neomac
Now Biden is ready for peace and the "armageddon" argument comes in handy. — neomac
The mention of armageddon could be just empty talk, or then it could be simply preparing to deescalate the situation. The US administration has gotten what it wants from the conflict (ending cooperation between Russia and Germany, militarisation of Europe, boosting energy profits, is very doubtful good things for NATO as a whole, but it is certainly good for Biden's donors), so "averting nuclear war" is obviously a good rational to end the conflict in one way or another if it's now simply becoming a headache to deal with. — boethius
Sweden has essentially zero military significance.
Finland in NATO doesn't really change anything as there's extreme low probability that Finland would house NATO nuclear missiles or be a staging ground for a NATO invasion of Russia, which is also unlikely to happen anyways.
The only military scenario where Finland in NATO is relevant is if Russia planned on invading either Finland or then NATO countries, which again is very low probability. — boethius
As for military humiliation, the war is not over. — boethius
And, again, the extent to which there is real pain and disruption doesn't change the immense competitive advantage to the rest of the world that hasn't sanctioned Russian energy, in particular China and India. — boethius
Yes that was the point I was making. — neomac
NATO can be repurposed also defend the West from the Rest. And if NATO expansion in Sweden or Finland is not a problem, neither should have been NATO expanding in Ukraine. — neomac
It doesn't need to be over to assess how poorly Russian are military performing. Even they themselves are complaining about it in their national TV. — neomac
Well Indian, Chinese, Russian, and anti-Capitalist should be happy then. The US and the Western American-led oppression of the rest of the World is on a path of self-destruction. That's why they should absolutely continue to support Ukraine to fight Russia. — neomac
And if NATO expansion in Sweden or Finland is not a problem, neither should have been NATO expanding in Ukraine. — neomac
I see compassion as a supportive feeling we have for other people’s suffering — neomac
You are not proving to be “solely” concerned of the well being of the people there, by engaging in anonymous armchair chattering about “people there” on a website. — neomac
states according to a realist view that you seem to share with Mearsheimer don’t care about people’s feelings or moral, they are self-preserving geopolitical agents in competition for power. — neomac
I was talking about pre-condition for the implementation of state institutions that support human rights. State institutions, as I understand them, presuppose authoritative and coercive ruling over a territory. — neomac
I have no idea what you are talking about here. You really think people were disappearing prior to the Russian invasion? Why don't just refer to that. What Amnesty International criticized Ukraine was about police using excessive force and how they handled the Euromaidan protestors, during the student protests. But I didn't know that dissenters were disappearing in Crimea / Donbas prior to the war.The situation in Crimea was broadly similar to the situation in Ukrainian controlled Donbas.
That was the conclusion of Amnesty, Human Rights Watch, The UNHCR, The OSCE... If you disagree, you can take it up with them. — Isaac
But is interested in Finland and Sweden. You are just making things up. You really have no clue what you are talking about.Sweden and Finland joining NATO is, in my opinion, a rather hasty move. Why would they accept US vassalage when the Russians aren't interested in Finland or Sweden at all? — Tzeentch
I think there was far more belief in the strength of the sanctions. But I guess someone than predicted the dire situation that Russia would be now six months ago was then simply correct.The Russian collapse narrative and prediction as an imminent thing, was also already started as I think the citations I provide are sufficient to establish the fact. — boethius
I have no idea what you are talking about here. You really think people were disappearing prior to the Russian invasion? Why don't just refer to that. — ssu
Both the Ukrainian government authorities and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine have held civilians in prolonged, arbitrary detention, without any contact with the outside world, including with their lawyers or families. In some cases, the detentions constituted enforced disappearances
At least when it comes to your own country, the UK, they (the British Army) have had the decency to call afterwards the events in Northern Ireland an insurgency (if during the time it was referred to "The Troubles"). But the British at least upheld the common law and what the UK stands for" — ssu
Get involved in philosophical discussions about knowledge, truth, language, consciousness, science, politics, religion, logic and mathematics, art, history, and lots more. No ads, no clutter, and very little agreement — just fascinating conversations.