Neither observations have the slightest relevance too the inanity of your suggestion that the risk of nuclear war "isn't all that bad" because we got away with it last time. — Isaac

And the assumption that because Russia has nuclear weapons, it can invade other sovereign countries and we can't even give these countries aid to defend themselves is simply stupidity. Or insanity.

A far more deadlier conflict came hopefully to an end with successful peace talks just now. Ukraine likely hasn't yet reached similar numbers of killed.

A conflict that the media had forgotten. The sides in the Ethiopian civil war came to an agreement.

However for those hypocrites who say they are for peace, but in fact de facto support Putin in this conflict (because they are against the West and don't care a fuck about anything else), it should be noticed just how and why a settlement was reached in the Ethiopian civil war. In short: The government won the war. But it could also face a continued insurgency, which would be even more disastrous for Tigray and the whole country. Hence both sides called it quits. At least for now.

A short but thorough examination how this was done, especially the peace terms are laid out:



Hence when talking about either an armstice or peace in Ukraine, one has to understand that the situation on the battlefield is the only reason both sides will make it. Just like in Ethiopia.

Only within the sample of Ukrainians that the survey was specified to be representative of — neomac

All surveys apply only to the sample. Whether the stratification is specified or not.

Your study, for example, was limited to Ukrainians outside of donbas, over 18, with access to a mobile phone and internet connection, and with sufficient free time and willingness to take part. That biases the results against the very people the survey I cited aimed to capture.

It was also funded by the US. It doesn't take too much imagination to think what might have become of any less flattering results the US funded.

aren't these Ukrainian intelligence units and command structure better informed than you and me? — Olivier5

Yep. But possibly no better informed than US intelligence. None of which has any bearing whatsoever on what the average Ukrainian knows. I can read the reports from such units no less easily than a Ukrainian can.

A capacity for direct, primary observation is generally held in higher regard epistemologically than the capacity to read secondary data in the newspaper. — Olivier5

Indeed, but it's a capacity that is extremely limited. Only a tiny handful if Ukrainians have a sufficiently large social circle to gain anything more than a tiny vignette of what's going on directly. The rest they obtain from media reports, same as us. Same as we do in our own country, by the way. I've no direct idea what's even going on in my nearest city. I read about it in the newspaper. I live about 20 miles out of the city. I know no one who lives there and I rarely visit (my university is in the next city along, and my work is in London). I've no idea (directly) of what's happening 20 miles away, let alone 600.

What would you call "the whole strategic situation" exactly? Where does it start and end? And who has got a good view of it? God? — Olivier5

I don't think that has a clear answer. What it does have, though, is thresholds. If I asked exactly what constituted a clear overview of a company, no one could specify, but we can all point to people unlikely to have such a view.

Much like Putin's statements, some "ideological" backgrounds, plans, and such were set out by Nikolai Patrushev:

• Patrushev: West has created an empire of lies, involving the destruction of Russia (Rossiyskaya Gazeta; Apr 26, 2022) ^{english via google translate}

A couple or so continents are out to get Russia, they're more or less fascist- or Nazism-bound. The victim, Putin's Russia, will set it right. [Have nukes, by the way.]

Egbert Fortuin offers an analysis of some of the topics:

Ultimately, the Russian propaganda is part of the concept Russkij Mir ‘Russian World’, where Russian language and culture are a means to restore Putin’s Russian sphere of influence from Soviet times or earlier. This culminated in the war that started in 2022. The war in Ukraine is not about language, but the status of Russian in Ukraine has been abused as a weapon, one of the factors leading up to the actual war crimes by the Russians against Ukrainians, both Ukrainian speaking and Russian speaking, that can be witnessed today. Whether these war crimes should be classed as genocide or not has still to be investigated. However, it is clear that the dehumanization of Ukrainians in the Russian propaganda, including the use of the terms “Nazi”, “fascist” and “genocide” by the Russians, has contributed to the atrocities that the Russians have committed and are still committing in Ukraine. — Ukraine commits genocide on Russians: the term “genocide” in Russian propaganda • Egbert Fortuin • Sep 7, 2022

• As one of Vladimir Putin’s closest advisers on Ukraine, Nicolai Patrushev spreads disinformation and outlandish conspiracy theories (The Conversation; Jun 7, 2022)

Talks negotiations diplomacy would be great. :up: (suggestion: a neutral intact, otherwise free sovereign, Ukraine)

• China's Xi meets Germany's Scholz, urges Ukraine peace talks (CTV News; Nov 4, 2022)
• The Biden administration is encouraging Ukraine to support peace talks with Russia nearly 9 months after invasion began, WaPo reports (Business Insider; Nov 6, 2022)

What do you say to someone like Patrushev, though?

the assumption that because Russia has nuclear weapons, it can invade other sovereign countries and we can't even give these countries aid to defend themselves is simply stupidity. Or insanity. — ssu

I'll be sure to add that to my collection of 'stuff ssu reckons'.

Any thoughts on an actual argument?

All surveys apply only to the sample. Whether the stratification is specified or not. Your study, for example, was limited to Ukrainians outside of donbas, over 18, with access to a mobile phone and internet connection, and with sufficient free time and willingness to take part. That biases the results against the very people the survey I cited aimed to capture. — Isaac

Sure, and anybody must take into account the limits of sampling to reason more clearly. But there is a difference in a survey that is designed to address the popularity of Zelensky in Ukraine and another designed to address the popularity of a strategy in 3 cities in south-east Ukraine.
And again, this is not the only indicator. That's one that adds up with many others, including also formally democratic indicators. And any popular support indicator in its individuality (including formally democratic indicators) may be misleading and miss something of non-negligible political value in determining popular support for or against a government.

But possibly no better informed than US intelligence. — Isaac

Speculative.

Only a tiny handful if Ukrainians have a sufficiently large social circle to gain anything more than a tiny vignette of what's going on directly. The rest they obtain from media reports, same as us. — Isaac

I would think that this is false. They live through this war, and have friends and brothers on the front.

I don't think that has a clear answer. — Isaac

So your question was unclear then, since what constitutes "the whole strategic situation" remains unclear.

Russia has legitimate security concerns about NATO setting up shop on the other side of its 1,000-mile-plus border with Ukraine. — It’s Time to Bring Russia and Ukraine to the Negotiating Table · Charles A Kupchan · Nov 2, 2022

Sure they do, sure.

Putin frames this "concern" in dire terms (just like Patrushev), employing it as a justification for war. Been trying to figure out exactly what existential threat NATO was/is to Russia, but came up short, for the most part anyway — here.

Ironically, Putin's Russia has proven an actual present existential threat to Ukraine instead (to which the Ukrainians + support are responding). And, until they've taken over all of Ukraine, the supposed NATO threat remains. With Finland + Sweden it may now grow? Yet, if they were to take over all of Ukraine, then they'd become an increased substantial threat to others by the same thinking (Moldova Poland Romania Hungary Slovakia come to mind at first) — not that they weren't before, including nuclear-wise (2018). Putin's activities have all by themselves put Russia/ns at greater risk. See where this is going?

I suppose Putin and Patrushev might come to terms with the fact that any trust there may have been is lost, Poles, Romanians, many others. Simply telling Ukrainians that they're Russian doesn't seem the way to rectify. Let the warring shamming propaganda slide?

it appears to be that the US wants to prolong this war to "weaken Russia". — _db

Maybe that's become a factor? Maybe most want Putin to leave the Ukrainians alone, and quit it already?

• U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show it’s open to negotiate with Russia (The Washington Post; Nov 5, 2022)

(Public talks have a chance of exposing bullshit, though.)

there is a difference in a survey that is designed to address the popularity of Zelensky in Ukraine and another designed to address the popularity of a strategy in 3 cities in south-east Ukraine. — neomac

There is, yes. The latter tells us a lot more about support for particular strategies in the areas where is actually matters, as opposed to an almost meaningless generic support among people who are no more affected by the issue than any other.

I would think that this is false. They live through this war, and have friends and brothers on the front. — Olivier5

It's bullshit. No one has so many "friends and brothers" on the front that they can personally accumulate a first hand overview of the strategic position.

So your question was unclear then, since what constitutes "the whole strategic situation" remains unclear. — Olivier5

Not in the least. That's why I mentioned thresholds. You could not possibly identity the point where purple becomes red, you couldn't say exactly how much violence is too much violence to allow a child to watch on TV. Nothing about these failures to clearly define something prevent us from knowing what is definitely outside of the definition. I couldn't clearly define exactly what 'music' is (how melodic does the noise have to be?) but I know that my hat isn't a piece of music.

I don't need to know, or define, exactly what having a strategic overview would entail. One bloke having 'a bit of a look' from his window isn't it.

Russia has a long history of similar views of Putin and Patrushev (or Dugin). We often forget that either the Mensheviks or the Bolsheviks weren't the only play around in Russia when it had it's Revolution and especially before the revolutions. For example, the Chornaya sotnya, the Black Hundreds, promoted an ultra-conservative right-wing idealism which supported the House of Romanov, was against any reforms to the autocracy of the Tzar and favoured ultra-nationalism and anti-semitism. Some of the sycophants of Putin's regime seem like them. And of course, in today's Russia the movement has been refounded. And btw. the movement participated in the early stages of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the side of pro-Russian separatists.




I think the Russian tragedy is in the Slavophile attitude of seeing everything "Western" as bad and dangerous to the "true Russian state and Russian heritage". That the West is there to destroy every good in Russia. It's all a huge conspiracy against Russia to destroy Russia and the Russians.

Perhaps the cause for this is that modernization, or Westernization, has been forced by a violent system starting with Peter the Great and other autocratic regimes. And when autocrats force with an iron fist modernization however bening in the end, the way it's introduced is the problem. Because I think just as Greece, Russia and Russian culture is part of the West.

The latter tells us a lot more about support for particular strategies in the areas where is actually matters, as opposed to an almost meaningless generic support among people who are no more affected by the issue than any other. — Isaac

It matters to them because their lives and living is more exposed to the war than in other areas. But it matters to the rest of Ukraine too because they might lose their territory, men and resources to fight a foreign power. Besides those areas are more pro-Russian so it's easier to find Ukrainians there who would more likely want Zelensky to make concessions to Russia, than the other way around, and if Putin is right in claiming that pro-Russian separatists called him in their defense against the Ukrainian government, then they are now paying also for the gamble pro-Russian separatists there have taken, as much as Ukrainians are paying for provoking the Russian bear with a stick in the eye, right?

No one has so many "friends and brothers" on the front that they can personally accumulate a first hand overview of the strategic position. — Isaac

I am not talking of getting an overview of the strategic position, though.

Are Iran and North Korea now in a proxy war against Ukraine? Well, effectively against Ukraine, though intended against Ukraine's supporters, I guess?

• Do Putin and Kim have an 'arms for horses' deal? Russia sends North Korea 30 thoroughbred horses by train after Pyongyang shipped Moscow artillery shells in bid to bolster its bungled Ukraine invasion (Daily Mail; Nov 5, 2022)

• Foreign fighters in Ukraine speak out on their willingness to serve: 'I had to go': (ABC News; Nov 6, 2022)

, Putin's Russia sure regressed. :/ Not all Russians (I'd say), but the autocrat circle is in control.

it matters to the rest of Ukraine too because they might lose their territory, men and resources to fight a foreign power. — neomac

More nationalist bullshit.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1116152

The Ukraine crisis risks tipping up to 1.7 billion people — over one-fifth of humanity — into poverty, destitution and hunger.

“In Yemen 8 million children are already on the brink of famine. Families are exhausted. They’ve faced horror after horror through seven years of war. We fear they will not be able to endure another shock, especially to the main ingredient keeping their children alive.

8 million children. Did anyone ask them whether they want the war to continue so that Ukraine doesn't lose any territory? No. Because apparently they haven't got the right fucking passport.

Disgusting.

, fortunately, Ukrainian food went out since April. Close call recently that the Black Sea Fleet would block them again, but I think it's OK now.

On the other hand, just think about if all war efforts throughout were transformed into supporting those 8 million children... (Some might even regain faith in mankind.) :smile: "And that's why :point: you should vote @jorndoe in the next election." :grin:

fortunately, Ukrainian food went out since April. — jorndoe

Yeah. This from UNICEF in October. It's not enough.

James Elder, a spokesman for the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), told reporters in a video call from Somalia on Tuesday. “Without greater action and investment, we are facing the death of children on a scale not seen in half a century.”

The war needs to stop as quickly as possible, countries just aren't independent any more, the idea that all Ukrainians have to consider is what other Ukrainians want to sacrifice for their territory is ridiculous. The idea that it's all we have to consider is obscene.

More nationalist bullshit. — Isaac

"Legitimate security concerns" is not fashionable anymore?

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1116152

The Ukraine crisis risks tipping up to 1.7 billion people — over one-fifth of humanity — into poverty, destitution and hunger.

“In Yemen 8 million children are already on the brink of famine. Families are exhausted. They’ve faced horror after horror through seven years of war. We fear they will not be able to endure another shock, especially to the main ingredient keeping their children alive.
— Isaac

But if you believe that "lots of global events cause that level of damage - from local warlords, oppressive police, environmental pollution, poverty" why are you specifically concerned about the Ukrainian crisis?

8 million children. Did anyone ask them whether they want the war to continue so that Ukraine doesn't lose any territory? No. — Isaac

And did anyone ask them whether they want the war to continue so that Russia will appease its legitimate security concerns? Neither.
Not to mention that this war is not matter of Ukrainian losing territory to Russia or Russian national security concerns. It’s matter of power struggles and world order between authoritarian vs democratic regimes: in particular, it’s about Putin wanting his threats against the Western-led world order to be taken as damn seriously as his threats against NATO enlargement, if not more. What do you say? Should we take him damn seriously?

Disgusting. — “Isaac

And how is your disgust helping the 8 million children so far?

The submission (if not genocidal) tendencies aren't just Patrushev, Putin, and those folk.
This article was bad enough to get its own Wikipedia entry:

• What Russia Should Do with Ukraine (Wikipedia)
• What should Russia do with Ukraine? (RIA Novosti; Apr 3, 2022) ^{english via google translate}

What's wrong with these people?

↪ssu, Putin's Russia sure regressed. :/ Not all Russians (I'd say), but the autocrat circle is in control. — jorndoe

This is true and sad. Hopefully the end will be such humiliating that the kind of nonsense will finally be brushed off. Yet that might be too much to hope.

I remember reading memoirs of a Finn written in the early 1920's that had served in the Imperial government in St. Petersburgh until the fall. He said he had met even Rasputin, but one his most damning remarks weren't at the Bolsheviks, but especially the Black Hundreds, which according to him were absolute poison for any sane and rational reform to happen, but lulled the Czarist regime to think that the people support them.

"Legitimate security concerns" is not fashionable anymore? — neomac

:100: :grin:

"Legitimate security concerns" is not fashionable anymore? — neomac

I have no idea what you're talking about. What has the pragmatic acknowledgement that Russia had legitimate security concerns (if you poke them, they'll bite), got to do with the ethics of supporting a war affecting millions according only to the objectives of those with a particular passport?

The only link I can see is moral culpability in both cases. We ought not have provoked Russia - knowing what would happen and we ought not continue to finance a war which risks the starvation of millions.

Do you see some conflict in those positions?

if you believe that "lots of global events cause that level of damage - from local warlords, oppressive police, environmental pollution, poverty" why are you specifically concerned about the Ukrainian crisis? — neomac

It's the title of the thread.

this war is not matter of Ukrainian losing territory to Russia or Russian national security concerns. It’s matter of power struggles and world order between authoritarian vs democratic regimes: — neomac

No it isn't, don't be naive. It's produced by conflicting national interests, not Steven Segal.

it’s about Putin wanting his threats against the Western-led world order to be taken as damn seriously as his threats against NATO enlargement, if not more. — neomac

More like it.

What do you say? Should we take him damn seriously? — neomac

Yes, very seriously. If you think 'war' and 'serious' are synonymous, then God help us.

This from UNICEF in October. It's not enough.

James Elder, a spokesman for the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), told reporters in a video call from Somalia on Tuesday. “Without greater action and investment, we are facing the death of children on a scale not seen in half a century.” — Isaac

It won't surprise our most faithful readers who know you as a serial liar, but this Unicef quote has nowt to do with Ukraine. This quote is from a press release about Somalia and does not mention Ukraine.

https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/unicef-warns-unprecedented-numbers-child-deaths-somalia

I understand that for the putinistas, the Ukrainians are responsible for all the world's problems, and their identity needs to be erased otherwise the universe will crumble. But don't erase the identity of Somalians in the process!

The current German Chancellor, Herr Scholz, was anxious to divert any nefarious reading of his recent caravan of CEOs landing in Biejing The visit has sparked much criticism and conjecture throughout Germany, Europe and the USA.

Scholz admit that German industry is heading for the Schiesser; Industrialists are shutting down plants all over Germany as the increased energy costs begin to bite. And many of those Industrialists are jumping ship, and loading up to unprecedented levels of investment in the USA and doubly so in China.

The European Consensus is firmly against both Russia and China, who we are told don't share our Values. So any visit to China is going to attract speculation. But as no-one - especially Scholz - is permitted to admit that the Post WW2 Germany Economic Miracle has hit a reef, the search for a fix to keep the German Economy afloat needs to occur surreptitiously as forlorn as Brussels and Washington are watching Scholz carefully.

Although no one can say it, everyone knows it. Scholz's industrial caravan to Bijeing is a glaring admission that Germany is in a major economic crisis. Xi - in his inscrutable CPC style - delivered Scholz a scornful dressing down, detailing the foolhardiness of Germany Policy towards Russia and schooled him to pressure Zelensky to the Peace table.

Of course Xi promised to work in harmony with Germany but what if anything else was agreed on is uncertain. Interestingly, paranoid circles are concerned that the trip maybe just the first step for Germany to enter a tripartite alliance with China and Russia. It's a compelling idea - one no doubt appealing to those German Industrialists - but then Germany would need to relinquish those precious western values .

this Unicef quote has nowt to do with Ukraine. — Olivier5

Bullshit. It's about the famine in Somalia which literally every expert in the world agrees is (and continues to be) exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine. That you'd seek to de-legitimise the starvation of millions just to score a cheap point for you pro-Ukrainian virtue signalling is a disgrace. You should be ashamed.

UNICEF’s Deputy Regional Director for Eastern and Southern Africa, Rania Dagash
07 June 2022

The war in Ukraine is fuelling the emergency across the region: exacerbating rising global food and fuel prices, stopping vital wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia, and driving up the cost of life-saving therapeutic treatment for children with severe malnutrition.

July 2022

Before the invasion, Ukraine and Russia were among the world’s top producers and exporters of grains, cooking oil and fertilizers, and together provided nearly all of Somalia’s wheat. The disruption of crude oil from Russia has led tosoaring costs for fuel, transportation and food production. ...
The crisis is worse now than anytime in my lifetime working in Somalia for the last 20 years, and it is because of the compounded effect of the war in Ukraine,” said Mohamud Mohamed Hassan, Somalia country director for the charity Save the Children

Ukraine has taken.. the attention of the international donor community almost totally. And the crisis in Somalia, as well as in the Horn, has been neglected. — Binyam Gebru, Save the Children in Somalia

Solving the 20-million-ton grain problem — and there remain serious questions as to whether it can be resolved — won’t be enough by itself. ... in the short term, while the shipment of Ukrainian grain will help, ultimately the war needs to end — or at least see a reduction in the level of hostilities — to ensure that there aren’t further problems down the road. A key focus here is the next harvest in Ukraine.

... the most recent crop-planting season in Ukraine unfolded in the shadow of war. That resulted in a significant reduction — about 20 to 30 percent — in the level of spring crops that could be sown in the country, according to U.N. estimates.

With the war continuing, it is not yet clear how much of that reduced crop will be harvested in the coming months. The government in Kyiv has taken steps to ensure that farm work can continue — among other measures, it has exempted agricultural workers from military service. But in some parts of the country, there are concerns as to whether farmworkers will be able to access their fields. One local estimate suggests that of the 7.6 million hectares of land planted with winter wheat, rye and barley in recent months, only about 5.5 million hectares will be accessible for harvesting.

In addition to concerns about safety, there is the war’s powerful economic impact. Transport costs, for example, have skyrocketed, making it harder for Ukrainian farmers to move what crop they can harvest via land routes to silos or nearby ports.

“Most of the farmers are running the risk of becoming bankrupt very soon,” Mykola Horbachov, the head of the Ukrainian Grain Association, an industry group, told the Associated Press earlier this month.

The upshot: Even if the grain deal frees up last year’s harvest, big questions remain about the future of Ukraine’s agricultural sector. The country’s agricultural minister warned recently that the fallout could result in Ukrainian farmers planting up to two-thirds less wheat later this year. “Farmers will reduce winter sowing [of] wheat and barley from 30 to 60 percent,” Mykola Solskyi told the Financial Times in a recent interview. — Nikhil Kumar

So I'll ask again...

The war in Ukraine severely increases the risk of starvation for millions in Africa by

• increasing the cost of fuel
• reducing supplies of fertilisers
• limiting the supply of drugs
• risking further disruptions to food exports
• risking the loss of food supplies next year
• detracting donor attention from vital humanitarian aid

Simple question - do those millions at risk of starvation because of the continued war get a say in whether it's worth it or not?

The war in Ukraine severely increases the risk of starvation for millions in Africa by
increasing the cost of fuel
reducing supplies of fertilisers
limiting the supply of drugs
risking further disruptions to food exports
risking the loss of food supplies next year
detracting donor attention from vital humanitarian aid

Simple question - do those millions at risk of starvation because of the continued war get a say in whether it's worth it or not? — Isaac

Why yes they do. Macky Sall, the president of Senegal and acting chair of the African Union,, pushed for the cereal export deal brokered by UNCTAD and Turkey. By visiting Moscow, he made sure Africa had a say. This deal is credited to bringing food prices down to pre-war levels:

That's not having a say in whether the war is worth it, is it?

That's having a say in what to do about the consequences.

At what point did the US consult the African Union about the impact of their continued funding for the war?

That's not having a say in whether the war is worth it, is it? — Isaac

Worth what?

At what point did the US consult the African Union about the impact of their continued funding for the war — Isaac

The voices of Africa are heard in the UN General Assembly, among other places. Only half of them voted for the UN resolution condemning the Russian invasion in March. This sent a message.

Worth what? — Olivier5

The damage. As I've explained above. The costs are measured in millions of lives.

The voices of Africa are heard in the UN General Assembly, among other places. Only half of them voted for the UN resolution condemning the Russian invasion in March. This sent a message. — Olivier5

Dodging the question again.

I didn't ask "At what point did the US consult the African Union about their plan to condemn Russia"

Regardless, this is about your claim that it is proper only to consider the opinion of Ukrainians when deciding whether to continue funding the war. Are you now going back on that position?

Simple question - do those millions at risk of starvation because of the continued war get a say in whether it's worth it or not? — Isaac

I'm at risk of dying of cold because I cannot afford the heating bill. So I get a say. And I say that defeating fascism is expensive and costs many lives, but also saves many lives. One can never make the pragmatic calculations of such global events, because no one knows the future, and no one knows the alternative future brought about by making a different decision. War is disgusting and starvation is disgusting, and if we all thought you knew how to end them, we'd all vote for you.