Welcome to the real world, Neo. — Morpheus
Do we know anything about aliens? — Tom Storm
Do we know anything about aliens? — Tom Storm
I'm also having similar problems with Pr(E). Since we know so little about aliens and the odds of abiogenesis, I can't justify anything for Pr(E) other than .5. — RogueAI
I'm also having similar problems with Pr(E). Since we know so little about aliens and the odds of abiogenesis, I can't justify anything for Pr(E) other than .5. — RogueAI
Let E = "there has been no indisputable contact with advanced aliens so far" — RogueAI
I'm assuming that the probability of contact increases with time]. — Agent Smith
I'm assuming that the probability of contact increases with time — Agent Smith
You can't assume this! In order to assume it, you would have to know that aliens, in fact, exist, and will contact us at some point in the future — RogueAI
. . . given that aliens exist & Aliens will contact us in the next 10 years? — Agent Smith
This turns the whole conversation into probababble — jgill
Why? — Agent Smith
Why are the hypotheses nonsense? — Agent Smith
Each one of these probabilities (use the variable p) can be such that
1. p = 50% (agnostic)
2. p < 50% (unlikely)
3. p > 50% (likely) — Agent Smith
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