I don't think either of these explanations hold much water, and basically exemplify the inability that is prevalent in this thread to see the Russians as anything other than cartoon villains. — Tzeentch

Funny thing: you got the "cartoon villain" thing from StreetlightX. He stole it from me. What goes around comes around. :lol:

The Crimean War started with Russia's invasion of the Turkish Danubian principalities of Moldavia and Wallachia (now Romania). Britain and France both wanted to prop up the ailing Ottoman Empire and resist Russian expansionism in the Near East. — google

Mumble mumble, forced to repeat, mumble.

What is it about in your view (a year into it)? — frank

NATO expansion is one reason, but it was more of a figleaf than an actual reason for him to attack Ukraine as only massing troops to the border already got him clear signals that Ukraine wouldn't be part of NATO (with Germany saying so). Still actually Hungary objects Ukrainian NATO membership. Hence if Ukraine staying out of NATO would have been the only objective, no reason to start an all out war. Yet annexing territories should make it totally clear to everyone what the actual objectives are.

But of course now Putin depicts that the West has (and has always had) the intent to destroy Russia. He sees this as a long standing objective for the West. In his last speech Putin's biased history interpretation shows this well:

I would like to recall that, in the 1930s, the West had virtually paved the way to power for the Nazis in Germany. In our time, they started turning Ukraine into an “anti-Russia.” Actually, this project is not new. People who are knowledgeable about history at least to some extent realise that this project dates back to the 19th century. The Austro-Hungarian Empire and Poland had conceived it for one purpose, that is, to deprive Russia of these historical territories that are now called Ukraine. This is their goal. There is nothing new here; they are repeating everything.

And btw, just to show how in line with Putin some views on this thread are, here is the man himself explaining the culprit of this war:

Responsibility for inciting and escalating the Ukraine conflict as well as the sheer number of casualties lies entirely with the Western elites and, of course, today’s Kiev regime, for which the Ukrainian people are, in fact, not its own people. The current Ukrainian regime is serving not national interests, but the interests of third countries.

So you think it's basically a land grab?

So you think it's basically a land grab? — frank

Basically yes.

What else would it be? Putin is talking of Donbas and Novorossiya as parts of Russia, now liberated from the "artificial country". The change of curriculum in schools and all what they intend to do makes it quite clear.

Or then you can believe that this is also an existential struggle for Russia as the West wants to destroy Russia and it's culture with Western decadence. And that's the "defensive" motivation to push borders of Russia forward.

A quote from Putin's speech, because it's important to understand what Putin is really saying:

The Western elite make no secret of their goal, which is, I quote, “Russia’s strategic defeat.” What does this mean to us? This means they plan to finish us once and for all. In other words, they plan to grow a local conflict into a global confrontation. This is how we understand it and we will respond accordingly, because this represents an existential threat to our country.

However, they too realize it is impossible to defeat Russia on the battlefield and are conducting increasingly aggressive information attacks against us targeting primarily the younger generation. They never stop lying and distorting historical facts as they attack our culture, the Russian Orthodox Church and other traditional religious organizations in our country.

Look what they are doing to their own people. It is all about the destruction of the family, of cultural and national identity, perversion and abuse of children, including pedophilia, all of which are declared normal in their life. They are forcing the priests to bless same-sex marriages. Bless their hearts, let them do as they please. Here is what I would like to say in this regard. Adult people can do as they please. We in Russia have always seen it that way and always will: no one is going to intrude into other people’s private lives, and we are not going to do it, either.

One last question: how do you think this particular drama will end?

it's important to understand what Putin is really saying: — ssu

Yeah, no one's falling for that bullshit.

Here's Putin on NATO...

...[[b]NATO[/b]] moving its military infrastructure ever closer to the Russian border.

...these past days NATO leadership has been blunt in its statements that they need to accelerate and step up efforts to bring the alliance’s infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders.

Any further expansion of the North Atlantic alliance’s infrastructure or the ongoing efforts to gain a military foothold of the Ukrainian territory are unacceptable for us.

Focused on their own goals, the leading NATO countries are supporting the far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis in Ukraine

First a bloody military operation was waged against Belgrade, without the UN Security Council’s sanction but with combat aircraft and missiles used in the heart of Europe. The bombing of peaceful cities and vital infrastructure went on for several weeks. I have to recall these facts, because some Western colleagues prefer to forget them, and when we mentioned the event, they prefer to avoid speaking about international law, instead emphasising the circumstances which they interpret as they think necessary.

Then came the turn of Iraq, Libya and Syria.

They [The Western powers] will undoubtedly try to bring war to Crimea just as they have done in Donbass — Putin's speech marking the initiation of the invasion

Only now it's suddenly becomes possible for Putin to lie. To say stuff that is merely politically expedient, not a real reflection of his motives.

Your transparent cherry-picking is not fooling anyone. Putin lies. That means we don't know what he really thinks from his speeches. Get over it.

Industrialized land grab (and then some):

Moscow Reportedly Threatened New Parents in Ukraine: Register Your Newborns as Russian or Else
^{— Tony Spitz · Veuer/Flipboard · Mar 3, 2023}
Ukrainians say they were pressured to register babies as Russian during occupation
^{— Rod Nickel, Leonardo Benassatto · Reuters · Mar 3, 2023}

"There is no Ukraine, only Russia." — Mar 2, 2023

(partial repeat...)

Some of these sanctions-defying oddities are old-fashioned greed, others are features (or incidental side-effects) of larger interwoven economies/markets, others still could be ideologically motivated yet this seems rare or covert.

Stop funding Russia’s nuclear weapons
^{— Henry Sokolski · The Hill · Nov 13, 2022}
Exclusive: The global supply trail that leads to Russia’s killer drones
^{— Stephen Grey, Maurice Tamman, Maria Zholobova · Reuters · Dec 15, 2022}
CNN Exclusive: A single Iranian attack drone found to contain parts from more than a dozen US companies
^{— Natasha Bertrand · CNN · Jan 4, 2023}
Two Americans arrested in alleged scheme to supply Russia with aviation equipment
^{— Julia Mueller · The Hill · Mar 2, 2023}

Also makes you wonder about proliferation of nuclear arms components, though fortunately under tighter restrictions.

Only now it's suddenly becomes possible for Putin to lie. — Isaac

?

I thought the classic denial from Putin of the "little green men" happened quite a long time ago. Heck, he should have not even come out with that one: some perhaps wouldn't still believe that Crimea was taken over by "Crimean volunteers".

Putin lies. That means we don't know what he really thinks from his speeches. — Isaac

Irrelevant

Actions matters, not what people really think, but what they do. And his speeches show clearly the way how the Kremlin now sees the war. It's also important understand how he portrays the West to the Russian public. Besides, there's nothing new to the fact that in Russia there are several words for truth. During Soviet times when talking to Soviets a big part of any discourse was the "lithurgy".

What should get over?

, what you keep missing is that there are assessments here of what Putin + team want others to hear, whether true/false/bullshit, each of which can be found.

Top Russian official's remark about Ukraine war draws laughter

You call Putin a liar in one sentence and take his word in the next.


Odd how that whenever it suits your narrative we should trust his word, and whenever it doesn't suit your narrative, he's lying.

15 years of protest against NATO expansion > Not a genuine expression of worry, but a carefully crafted lie.

Some war-time rhetoric > Not nonsense narratives meant to influence the public, but a genuine expression of his intentions.


You have to be pretty deep down the propaganda rabbit hole not to see this.

Odd how that whenever it suits your narrative we should trust his word, and whenever it doesn't suit your narrative, he's lying.

15 years of protest against NATO expansion > Not a genuine expression of worry, but a carefully crafted lie.

Some war-time rhetoric > Not nonsense narratives meant to influence the public, but a genuine expression of his intentions.


You have to be pretty deep down the propaganda rabbit hole not to see this. — Tzeentch

Do you mean "some war-time rhetoric" is the lie while "15 years of protest against NATO expansion" is expression of Putin's genuine views? And doesn't that suit your narrative too?

Anyone can speculate on what goes on in Putin's head.
Maybe he got pissed off that the Ukrainians took a different path, went their own way, independent of and diverging from his Russia... Betraying traitors!
And, adding insult to injury, those evil damn Westerners, intruding with their democracy, "progressiveness", homosexuals, and McDonald's... Fuckers!

Zygar writes that Putin ‘flew into a rage’ and warned that ‘if Ukraine joins NATO it will do so without Crimea and the eastern regions. It will simply fall apart’ (Zygar 2016, 153–154). — Rajan Menon, William Ruger · 2020

Putin threw a fit like a petulant little child and decided to no longer play the game he was losing...so you now have violence and war. — Sooner5030 · Mar 10, 2022

What more does a guy need? :)

You call Putin a liar in one sentence and take his word in the next. — Tzeentch

Wrong, What I say what he speaks is important how Kremlin portrays this war, what is the narrative fed to the Russian people. And it's telling how he sees the West.

So if a politician lies, which they can, then it's irrelevant what he says at all???

Actions matters, not what people really think, but what they do. — ssu

Indeed.

And...

his speeches show clearly the way how the Kremlin now sees the war. — ssu

...immediately contradicted within the same paragraph.

If "actions are what matters", and it's trivially true that Putin lies, then Kremlin speeches tell us one thing and one thing only... Whatever it is the Kremlin wants people to hear.

Now, do you have a shred of evidence that these speeches are honest? Or is it just more apologetics?

Desperately trying to see something wrong when their isn't.

Actions are important. Like who actually attacked whom. And then what here the attacker says is also important. Even if understandably he portrays the culprit for the war to be the one attacked. Just like Stalin's Soviet Union declared that Finland had attacked the Soviet Union. Or Poland German with Hitler.

You should be given some kind of a strawman-prize.

A summary of the attack in Russia's southern Bryansk (sources included):

Vladimir Putin: Latest conflict could be sign that 'Russians will begin to wake up', official claims
^{— Ali Postma · Ohmymag UK · Mar 3, 2023}

The attack itself seems a bit odd. Some anti-Putin Russians in Ukraine got together and went posturing without going after anything of much importance in Russia. Just to show they can or something? Not much of a political rally, either. A probe maybe? And Putin's reaction is rather overshadowed by his efforts in Ukraine. There's not really any comparison, though I suppose emphasizing the attack can provide a distraction.

Top Russian official's remark about Ukraine war draws laughter — neomac

Yep, which also echoes Boris Bondarev's comments about "degradation".

Crowd erupts in laughter at Russia's top diplomat after he claimed the Ukraine war 'was launched against us'
^{— Rebecca Cohen, John Haltiwanger · Business Insider India · Mar 4, 2023}

What's up with Lavrov? Lying? Following the script? Bullshitting? Propagandizing? Expressing his belief?

Recently Seymour Hersh gave an interview in which he shared inside information about the view of the Ukraine war from sources within US intelligence.



At 19:58 Hersh goes into their view of the war, and how it differed from what the newspapers were publishing.

If we are to believe Hersh's sources, it turns out the idea of the advance on Kiev being a binding operation and not an attempt at capturing and occupying Kiev - an idea that I have posited multiple times in this thread - wasn't so far-fetched after all. In fact, it might've been exactly what took place.

Hersh names the figure of 60,000 Ukrainian defenders. The Ukrainian General Staff gave as their estimate for Russian troops attacking Kiev around 21,000.
This is essentially what I was already suspecting, and probably the reason why the Ukrainian order of battle remains undisclosed to this day, since it implies a successful Russian diversion, rather than the heroic Ukrainian defense it was framed as by the media.


The whole interview goes much further. It puts a bomb under the entire western narrative, which could already be seen cracking.

As Hersh said himself about his report on Nord Stream: all he did was dissect the obvious. And the only reason obvious things aren't said out loud is because of deafening US propaganda basically gas lighting the entire western world.


Anyhow, this is the umpteenth crack in the story. Can't wait to see the apologetics.

What's up with Lavrov? Lying? Following the script? Bullshitting? Propagandizing? Expressing his belief? — jorndoe

Russia is really taking the historical discourse from the Soviet Union: the Lithurgy. The Lithurgy is the official line and you talk the official line to show that you are totally on with the official line. It can be a lie, it can be just nonsense or nothing, but you repeat it to show that you are an ardent backer of the regime.

Actually to make people to talk about a "special military operation" and make it illegal to talk about a war when this truly a war in every way, is a power play. The objective is to show the power Putin has and for people to show their unwavering faith to the leadership. The objective is to make people think twice what they say and avoid certain words like a white American avoids using the n-word. Hence when Putin declares that this war was basically started by the West and the Ukrainian henchmen working for the West against Russia, then the foreign minister naturally repeats the line. Anyone not repeating this can be problematic.

This is quite similar to when Soviet Union attacked Finland. Then it was actually Finland that attacked Soviet Union. And then there was the People's government lead by Otto Kuusinen that the Soviet Union came to help to relieve the working class, the proletariat, from the evil capitalist imperialist subjugating Finland.

So if it worked under Stalin, why wouldn't it work now?

(BTW, Trump actually wanted similar thing from his subordinates right from the start when he declared that on his inauguration day the crowds were larger than Obama had. A good spokesperson that Trump wanted would have followed that line and wouldn't have cared about actual pictures showing this isn't true.)

Russia's buddies are Iran and China. America's allies are the great democracies of Europe. Is there any question who the bad guys are here? Would any of the quislings here ever choose to live in Iran or Russia or China? Of course not.

A look into what Jane and John Russian get on national TV, Russia-1:
via Julia Davis of Russian Media Monitor (Mar 2, 2023 · 9m:38s)

Taken together with Lavrov's statements (and others) a story is told.

If [t]he US bombed Nord Stream [...] — Tzeentch

How many of Russia's presently available forces are deployed/involved in Putin's war in Ukraine (perhaps with/out mercs, un/trained, respectively)? (, others)

Tearful scenes and protest as mobilization gets underway in Russia
^{— Simone McCarthy, Matthew Chance, Tim Lister, Anna Chernova, Mick Krever, et al · CNN · Sep 23, 2022}
Russia’s Stripped Its Western Borders to Feed the Fight in Ukraine
^{— Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch · Foreign Policy · Sep 28, 2022}
Russia’s Reindeer Brigade Is Fighting For Its Survival In Southern Ukraine
^{— David Axe · Forbes · Oct 7, 2022}
Russia sends St. Petersburg riot police to Mariupol to stop new protests
^{— Daniel Stewart · News 360 · Dec 16, 2022}

but now Putin's Russia is busy elsewhere (Ukraine), and apparently neglecting the alliance — Jan 11, 2023

Russia says little about its soldiers dying, so an open-source team is trying to keep track
^{— Briar Stewart et al · CBC News · Mar 4, 2023}
2022 Russian mobilization
^{— Wikipedia}

Who knows, maybe Prigozhin made Putin some verbal promises to the effect of saving some troubles involved in larger (unpopular) mobilization/conscription? (you know how it is among gangsters, better keep your word, or else...)

Is there any question who the bad guys are here? — RogueAI

Grown ups are discussing how best to end a bloody and dreadful war.

If you children want to discuss who "the baddies" are perhaps you could do so on a more suitable forum. Don't Disney have a little chat room you could use.

Grown ups are discussing how best to end a bloody and dreadful war.

If you children want to discuss who "the baddies" are perhaps you could do so on a more suitable forum. Don't Disney have a little chat room you could use. — Isaac

Says the "grown-up" who thinks that Ukraine should have surrendered, blames Zelensky for not surrendering, because he himself sees no difference in what flag flies over Kiev, Russian or Ukrainian. And says that there wouldn't be much bad consequences for that surrender.

Zelensky bears some moral responsibility for the deaths if he chooses to continue fighting when he could have take a less harmful other option. — Isaac

I'm pointing out that the terms offered by Russia are in this specific case, not applying to every single case in the world (which you bizarrely assumed), are such that it's not worth thousands of lives and huge indebtedness just to avoid them. — Isaac

As such it's not correct to say that we ought to support the Ukrainians in whatever they choose. We don't have any obligation to share their concern about their national identity, we do have an obligation to share their concern about their welfare.

This is relevant because if ceding territory to Russia ends the war and if there's no good reason to think that doing so will create a major loss in welfare, then we ought to support such a solution, even if the Ukrainians themselves don't. — Isaac

Ukrainians are not an homogeneous mass, we don't even know if they all support Zelensky's current strategy, and even if we did all the measures usually in place to ensure well-informed mandates are missing. There's no reason at all to assume 'Ukrainians' are calling the shots here and even if they were, there's no moral incentive to act on their expressed preference. — Isaac

I have no interest in why (some of) the Ukrainians want to remain outside of Russian control. — Isaac

Says the "grown-up" who thinks — ssu

Yes. That's right. I do think those things. That'll be why I said them.

Have you got anything more than your incredulity to offer? Or are we to add to your messianic ego, not only anyone who disagrees with you must be 'mistaken', but now anyone who disagrees with you is not even a grown up.

The president of Brazil has said Zelensky shares some blame. Not a grown up?

Amnesty international drew the conclusion about Ukraine and Russia's respective human rights records in Donbas and Crimea. Not an adult organisation?

Stephen Walt Professor of International relations at Harvard University has made the arguments I've made about considering territorial concessions. A child, in your eyes?

....

Your total inability to cope with differences of opinion is pathological. People disagree. Experts disagree. They're not 'mistaken', the don't 'not understand', they're not on Putin's payroll, they're not children...

They just disagree with you.

Yes. That's right. I do think those things. That'll be why I said them.

Have you got anything more than your incredulity to offer? — Isaac

I'm just quoting what you have said. What's wrong with that?

Oh, I could add that you think the Donbas republics are independent whereas somehow Ukraine, after many free elections and ruled by a party that didn't even exist in 2014 is somehow is related to "a US staged coup" and pawns of the US, just like Putin says.

So if I disagree that the People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk aren't independent and without any resemblance to democracy, or that there would have been a huge toll that Ukrainians would have had to suffer if they would have surrendered, you will likely go off with your ad hominem attacks.

I just simply disagree with what you say about the situation in Ukraine, which you have said repeatedly doesn't interest you much.

EU seeks to use frozen Russian funds to rebuild Ukraine
^{— Terje Solsvik, Essi Lehto, Niklas Pollard, Sandra Maler · Reuters · Feb 14, 2023}
There's an idea. — Feb 14, 2023

Dozens of sanctioned superyachts seized from Russian oligarchs still hang in limbo, racking up millions in maintenance
^{— Grace Kay, Sam Tabahriti · Business Insider · Mar 4, 2023}

Auction them off, put money into fund for Ukraine. :)

Don't you think it's a little odd to simply start stealing from rich Russians, when the story is that this is "Putin's war" that no one in autocratic dictatorship Russia actually supports? :chin:

, maybe. I was admittedly being a bit facetious. :)
Don't think it's that simple, and don't know exactly what has been seized from who and why.
Putin does have supporters among those people though, and others that aren't so supportive.