It's reported in Germany at the same time based on German intelligence leaks — Benkei
The ARD capital studio, Kontraste, SWR and ZEIT spoke to sources in several countries for their research.
According to information from the ARD capital studio, Kontraste, SWR and ZEIT, a Western secret service is said to have sent a tip to European partner services in the autumn, i.e. shortly after the destruction, according to which a Ukrainian commando was responsible for the destruction.
when "anonymous officials" report on "undisclosed information" about "anonymous groups" about which "much is still unclear" they're all reporting in tandem. — Tzeentch
We now have an intelligence "leak" (officially sanctioned it seems) blaming private individuals. How likely is that really? Getting explosives? Planning? Skills? And no government involved? — Benkei
Use yourbrainsguts, people. — Tzeentch
all of a sudden there's a flood of murky intelligence leaks in media. What's up with that? — SophistiCat
The telegraph seems to confirm a single (joint agency) source. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/07/nord-stream-pipelines-blown-pro-ukrainian-group-us-intelligence/ — Isaac
The incident had been variously blamed on Moscow, Kyiv, and, in one more outlandish theory, the CIA - ...
Russia too has means, the right amount of hawkishness and a history of false flag operations to directly or indirectly support such operation. — neomac
Yet not impossible for someone without the training. Professional Scuba divers on the private market exist. Yet there come the difficulties of just who would gather them without state backing. The motivation of someone else than a non-state actor would be confusing.. All the intelligence agencies are saying this is a very difficult operation with either state-level actors or those with state training. — Isaac
Yeah right. I think we know who is desperate here...Your desperation is showing. — Isaac
And Russia is the only player (that I know of) that has actually done this before. Possibly more than once. But those Georgia incidents made a lot more sense at the time. With Nord Stream it's not obvious. — SophistiCat
actually — SophistiCat
Saakashvili [Georgian President] said Russian officials have tendered veiled threats in the past, and given the natural gas crisis created in Ukraine earlier this month when Russia temporarily shut off the flow, the president said it "just looks fishy."
The connection to Russia is solely circumstantial. "U.S. intelligence agencies believe the Russian government was behind the Refahiye explosion, according to two of the people briefed on the investigation. The evidence is circumstantial, they said, based on the possible motive and the level of sophistication
They literally wrote an entire article without ever addressing how bizarre it is to just keep referring to the alleged perpetrators as just a "group". Like that's a thing. "Yeah you know, one of those Groups we've all been hearing about in the news. You know Groups, they sail around the world destroying international undersea energy infrastructure." — Caitlin Johnstone
Yet not impossible for someone without the training. — ssu
I can't quite remember...@Tzeentch, do you have any recollection of 'veiled threats' coming from anyone? — Isaac
Why on earth would we be contemplating theories which are merely "not impossible"? — Isaac
You, SophistiCat, @neomac... What have your governments done recently to deserve such unreserved faith? I just can't fathom it. What, over the last decade, say, has lead you to believe that US intelligence agencies are trustworthy, that government sources tell you the truth, that the official version of events is pretty much how things are... I'd love to know what string of successes has given you all such unwavering faith in the system. — Isaac
The reality is, when the US bombed Nord Stream 2, a piece of major infrastructure critical to the German economy, all Scholz asked was how many tanks the US wanted him to send. He's an absolute tool. — Tzeentch
As Hersh said himself about his report on Nord Stream: all he did was dissect the obvious. And the only reason obvious things aren't said out loud is because of deafening US propaganda basically gas lighting the entire western world. — Tzeentch
The only reason these things aren't yet part of the western common sense is because of a relentless propaganda campaign.
For example, the defense on Kiev has been framed as a heroic Ukrainian defense and a huge failure of the Russian armed forces. However, the order of battle on the Ukrainian side was never disclosed which means it's hard to tell what exactly happened.
Recently, Seymour Hersh gave an interview in which he named the figure of 60,000 Ukrainian defenders at the battle of Kiev. Assuming that's true, and I suspect that it is (and probably the reason why the order of battle remains undisclosed), this means the defense of Kiev was a successful Russian attempt at diverting forces away from the east. The Russians attacked Kiev with ~21,000 troops. This is a small amount for a city as large as Kiev, but against a defending force of 60,000 there's simply no way this force was meant to capture the capital. One would have expected the Russians to aim for a local numerical advantage of at least 3:1, especially for the type of urban fighting the capture would have involved. This would have required roughly 180,000 troops - basically the entire Russian invading force.
In other words, the western media spin was pure bullshit to influence the public perception of Ukraine's chances in this war.
Let me end by saying, I find no pleasure in these hard facts. — "Tzeentch
All of what I said is supported by hard facts and expert opinions (which I will happily share if you're interested).
I'm laying out the painful reality of the situation, because cheerleading and sugar coating aren't going to change it, and the price of ignorance is paid every day by the young men dying on the frontline, and civilians suffering under the war. — Tzeentch
I just can't for the life of me figure out how this fits into the picture that Russia probably did it, and that the US certainly didn't do it. — Tzeentch
But one senior US official and a US military official both said Russia is still the leading suspect – assuming that the European assessment of deliberate sabotage is borne out – because there are no other plausible suspects with the ability and will to carry out the operation.
“It’s hard to imagine any other actor in the region with the capabilities and interest to carry out such an operation,” the Danish military official said. — https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-leak-russian-navy-ships/index.html
If you give people who desperately do not want to face the obvious something to latch onto, they will. No matter how improbable it is. — Tzeentch
As usual “unwavering faith” or “unreserved faith” are ways to caricature my views — neomac
your helpless craving for pinning roughly everything bad is happening primarily on the US. — neomac
Ironically, your attempts to discredit the US is what makes people like me feel like sympathising with the US leadership more than our brains would recommend. — neomac
Your and Tzeentch’s frustration to present your reasons in a persuasive way to your opponents leads you both to caricature your opponents’ views. This attitude is intellectually dishonest and repulsive to me. — neomac
outside of philosophical debate this type of approach to worldly affairs is, in one word, weak. We're dealing with actors that will take every opportunity to bullshit you, and here we are waiting for that distant moment when we arrive at crystalline certainty (a pipe dream) to call out said bullshit.
That's crippling insecurity masquerading as intellectual rigor. — Tzeentch
Good job we're avoiding loaded terms and caricature — Isaac
The US and it's allies are our governments. It is they who we must hold to account and they to whose electorate we are speaking. As such it is their faults and strategies which are our primary concern. — Isaac
An odd response, but I appreciate the honesty. — Isaac
Powerful actors will act powerfully, that's in the definition. So if they are not resisted powerfully, then the effect is consent to whatever it is they are doing. They will not wait for us to make up our minds whether we consent. They will not temper their force in line with our uncertainty. Least of all in war. — Isaac
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