Prigozhin can now tell the truth, like there was no genocide against Russians in Donbas by Nazi Ukrainians etc. If he survives, he can perhaps be the replacement for Putin. What better thing for future leader of Russia to have his own private army for starters.

Isn't he also a member of the Oligarch class he's talking about?

Prigozhin doesn't look sane enough to control a nuclear arsenal.
He can't even control his own emotions.

Lol, wasn’t Trump?

Not a fan, but he did bring hot dogs to Russia.

he has been building his brand for a long time. Or have you seen antbody else from the Russian leaders at the front, talking next to his fallen men about the casualties or wanting more ammo for his men?

Of course, he is ”loyal” to czar Putin. But his intentions should be clear…when he just wants to ”talk” to the military leadership.

Oh sure, I'm just asking questions in part to better understand the situation.

There's a silver casing to every thug...?

Reportedly, the convoy had something in the range of 5,000 fighters, some 40-50 pieces of warware (led by a nasty creep), with a similar number of fighters in Rostov-on-Don, where Prigozhin apparently was. Prigozhin mentioned the number 25,000, perhaps referring to the number of soldiers available to partake should the need arise. By some estimates, Wagner has 50,000 mercenaries altogether as of typing.


↑ source

Would the (heavily armed) convoy be enough to confront his foes? Short-term I'm guessing yes, longer-term no, possibly depending on participation. Reportedly, Kadyrov's forces were useless in Rostov.

What could Prigozhin/Wagner hope to accomplish, though? Force changes in leadership of the Defence Ministry, and go on about business as usual? Letting frustrations boil over, maybe Prigozhin thought so, with a show of force, if his various allegations could be shown true. If recognized, there'd be some (wide-ranging) implications for all to see, including for the war. But, some things have steered towards "business as usual", with charges dropped, mercenaries invited to join the Russian forces, whatever.

Has this at all penetrated Russia’s native propaganda front? There seem to be cracks that aren’t easily painted over.

, don't know, I guess we'll see. They'll probably bring out the heavy/opaque paint, tell some tall tales.

The convoy allegedly downed a handful of choppers + a plane, earlier threatening to do that sort of thing if attacked. A fuel depot was blown up to slow the convoy down. Another country doing something like that could have resulted in a declaration of war, depending. What does a Mil 35 chopper cost anyway? An Ilyushin 22 plane? (For that matter, what about a gang killing 20?)

Here's a picture from Sunday of "a barrier" blocking a street leading to Red Square. I don't know... It just doesn't look like an adequate barrier to block a determined skate boarder, let alone the Wagner Group. Were they so confident the barrier wasn't needed or was this the best they could do on short notice?

I only ask because to whatever extent the Russian people are duped or not duped by state propaganda, I assume they know this whole thing happened. That seems significant.

I certainly don't know what all happened in Russia behind the scenes and off the screen. Time will tell, maybe soon, maybe not.

How do commentators here compare the January 6 insurrection in the US capitol building with Prigozhin's coup attempt (if that's what it was)? Granted, Prigozhin and the Wagner Group had a lot more hardware than the Proud Boys could dream of, but in both cases, an attack on the center of power occurred.

According to Peter Turchin, [End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration] the USA is about due for a period of social disintegration. "The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer."

I don't know whether Russia as it is currently constituted is eligible for the kind of severe instability of which Turchin writes. The two episodes of past US instability climaxed in the Civil War, and then in the Great Depression. We are, he thinks, heading for a third crisis period.

The USSR collapsed 32 years ago. Has Russia inherited or developed enough new internal conflicts to tear itself apart? There are obviously significant conflicts, but are they sufficient for Prigozhin's coup to trigger an implosion. One thing Russia seems to be sharing with the USA is "the wealth pump" whereby the elites get richer and working people are immiserated.

, yeah, though it's hard to tell what might come of it.

he wanted to have a politically apathetic population and that is exactly what he got — Jabberwock

I am ashamed that I allowed lies to be told from TV screens, that I allowed Russian people to be zombified. — Marina Ovsyannikova (Mar 2022)

↑ source

FYI, here are two different feeds on the Wagner move, with analyses, commentaries, summaries and such along the way:

• The Guardian
• NBC News

, he could start out smaller, taking over after Lukashenko. :D

the Wagner Group had a lot more hardware than the Proud Boys could dream of, but in both cases, an attack on the center of power occurred. — BC

I'd say you're comparing kids playing cowboys and Indians with a proper re-enactment of the October revolution.
———————————————————————————————
My guess is that Putin fled to Belarus, and that made the storming of Moscow unproductive of a quick regime change. But it looks like Prigozhin comes out more popular and stronger, and there will be a slower change. Putin may not come back to Moscow. Once you've been chased out of the Kremlin, there's no way to look like the strong man that Russia admires.

What could Prigozhin/Wagner hope to accomplish, though? Force change — jorndoe

Humiliate those in power, I guess. The establishment was already trying to contain him and Wagner. And do notice the enthusiastic response he got in Rostov. The deal he got shows how weak Putin’s hand was: Putin might have been worried about forces joining Prigozhin. Not so remote possibility.

My guess is that Putin fled to Belarus, — unenlightened

It’s been said that Putin fled to St Petersburgh. Of course it’s a rumour. History will be written later.

Yeah, just a guess, but the tripartite negotiation would have been easier ...its a detail.

One of the things the Wagner Group shows is that sending mercenaries abroad is safe and effective when used as directed, but having them within a day's drive of the capitol is hazardous.

Prigozhin would do well not to trust Vladimir & Company, including Lukashenko, with his life. He's likely to be dead meat sooner rather than later. I wouldn't expect too much kindness were I a Wagner soldier, either. Charges dismissed? Probably not. I'm pretty sure the empire will strike back, as soon as they get their act together.

All of my Moscow agents retired, so I don't have any inside information. But my guess is that Russia will not have regime change this week, or next.

I take American right wing militia types seriously. They are quite capable of causing real damage, and have done so at various times and places.

I take American right wing militia types seriously. — BC

Fair enough, you're a lot closer to them than I.

Our Russia predictions differ, but we agree that one or the other will have to go and fairly quick-smart.

Hmm :chin: ...

Russia says China backs its efforts to stabilize the country after mercenary rebellion
^{— Simina Mistreanu · AP · Jun 25, 2023}

Public appearances ... good for morale ...

Russian defence minister appears for first time since Wagner mutiny
^{— Gerry Doyle · Reuters · Jun 26, 2023}

Prigozhin would do well not to trust Vladimir & Company, including Lukashenko, with his life. He's likely to be dead meat sooner rather than later. I wouldn't expect too much kindness were I a Wagner soldier, either. Charges dismissed? Probably not. I'm pretty sure the empire will strike back, as soon as they get their act together. — BC

They might want to step lightly here, though. Many regular soldiers heartily agree with the grievances voiced by Prigozhin and definitely prefer him to the MoD brass. They did not join the rebellion, as he probably has hoped, but that does not mean they are all happy.

Also it should be noted that Russians do view Wagnerites as heroes, so persecuting them would be rather unpopular. I would rather expect dispersing the units and forcing them to join the regular forces.

Or the US occupied NATO countries back in 1945 and never left. After the war, Western Europe embraced US leadership, economic support, and military presence. It was a bargain that served them well but would ultimately compromise their sovereignty. Western Europe enjoyed benevolent servitude for half a century. Following the fall of the USSR, hubris would soon replace US scruples.

Washington no longer resembles anything like the Bartlett Administration from West Wing. It really never did. But West Wing is the image that we love to portray of Washington to ourselves. And when that myth jars against reality, then of course some Frank Underwood type must have temporarily usurped power. With just a little help from our media we quickly memory hole the jarring truth and reanimate the warm glow of Bartlett's Camelot.

It seem Russia didn't drop investigation against Prigozhin, Putin likely betrayed his word.

https://tass.com/society/1638327

Yes and you predicted all that, obviously. But kept silent to better enjoy the exquisite irony right? Now the explanation pls. Everything must be connected to land bridges, right? — neomac

Team reality did predict it:

However, what could actually be staged is Prigozhin's midnight comedy blowout theatre show, and when I point that out suddenly the idea Russia has some propaganda tricks up their sleeve is ludicrous and certainly the Russians couldn't put together a simple plan of telling the enemy what they want to hear so that their own propaganda networks seed your message for you and your enemy basically "trusts" one of your commanders and take everything he says at face value.

And if that's not the case, why is he still alive?

Nothing easier than arranging an "accident" in a war zone. When it started, maybe he had gone rogue or something, but it's been going on for months so at some point it's difficult to interpret people's actions that are on the same team as something other than team work. — boethius

And I was in the middle of doing some basic research, writing up an analysis of why this latest chapter may too be staged ... take a break, and I wake up and the coup has ended ...

Why we would have reason to believe it was staged, is:

First, Prigozhin is very clear what he is doing is not a coup and the elected president is great ... so this is literally the first coup in history against subordinates of the head of government. So what could possibly be the plan if it's not staged? "March of freedom" to Moscow and then somehow get the Ministry of Defence job and run the war.

Second, the "coup" started literally 1000 km from Moscow. Rule number #1 of couping is get things done fast, "fait accomplie" as soon as possible and immediately seize both the key people and symbols of power. If this was some actual coup attempt, a part of his men would have sprung into action in Moscow, then heavy weapons

Third, Prigozhin has bee continuously criticising the whole officer corp, especially all the top brass, of Russia for months now, he's not in command of any significant number of troops (required for a coup) nor had any backing from any actual high ranking officer. There is literally zero conditions required to successfully stage a coup ... which Prigozhin is clear he's not even doing.

Fourth, Prigozhin only ever talks shit when Russia is winning and troops will be in high moral. Things escalated the last weeks of Bakhmut when it was certainly a foregone conclusion that Ukraine could not possibly hold on to a dozen or so buildings. So, whatever moral downer Prigozhin shit talking may actually caused, is more than compensated by actual victory on the battlefield in taking Bakhmut. It is the perfect timing for some venting of genuine negative emotions that citizens can then project onto Prigozhin: True patriot and son of Mother Russia. Likewise, this "coup" only happens after Ukraine publicly pauses their offensive, and no first day or then during the offensive where this sort of shit disturbing would provide maximum leverage or then (if a genuine coup) a minimum of Russian troops could be diverted to confront him (as the front lines must be adequately manned to prevent a Ukrainian breakthrough, and, moreover, a "coup" in Russia may supercharge the assaults).

So what is he doing. The narrative now is that it was indeed a show, but to simply negotiate more money. Now, it would in principle be possible (but highly unlikely) for going rogue to be a negotiation tactic. I'm going to skip over all the numerous reasons why that really does not seem to be the case, to get to the main one which is that the resolution is Prigozhin going to Belarus, which means absolutely nothing in terms of Prigozhin personal security. Now, if Prigozhin attained free passage to some actual neutral country that guaranteed his safety, like UAE or something, a place that was not a vassal state to Russia, where it would cause a diplomatic incident for Russia to be killing people there, and he could live with some plausible basis to believe he could enjoy his millions and millions, or even billions, he's cashed away so far and then extorted even more out of Russia with his little stunt, ok, that would be one thing. But he's literally going next door to Russia to a country with hundred thousand or more Russian troops where the leader of said country is literally a Russian Colonel somehow.

So, if it's not staged, then Prigozhin literally agreed to go somewhere where he would be killed, giving up all his leverage ... to be immediately killed as soon as he gets to Belarus or even along the way. He could be killed and then just never spoken of again, Belarus doesn't ever investigate and just never talks about him again.

The only rational situation where Prigozhin would do this sort of stunt is if he believed he was about to be assassinated anyways and he had nothing to lose, but in that case he'd negotiate leaving Russia's sphere of influence ... not accept just hopping over to Belarus and calling it square.

It's absolutely ridiculous as some sort of genuine rational plan on Prigozhin's part. There's also zero reason to believe he was about to be assassinated. He took Bakhmut, then was chilling in the rear, the worst (for him) that was being discussed is just the Russian MoD taking more control of Wagner. If Prigozhin talking shit and posting it to the internet was a problem, he would have been killed months ago in an "artillery strike - hero of the father land".

Now, I'm not saying things can't get so fucked up that this sort of fake coup happens by genuine surprise in some high stakes everyone is extorting everyone shit show.

However, a group of people that tie nearly everything they don't like happening in the media to "Soviet propaganda" should definitely be considering this as one case that may actually be this Soviet "nothing makes sense, everything is true and false" legendary propaganda move.

For the most part, these allegations of Soviet propaganda prowess bringing Trump to power through a network of international Marxist (who no one can name as working on behalf of the Soviet Union) and normalising gay and trans identity to break down the family unit and erode the military ethos and so on, is completely insane.

However, this whole Prigozhin saga is literally exactly what these alleged propaganda techniques would look like if they were to be actually used.

To what purpose?

Certainly there are costs of Prigozhin's shit talking ... but even then it's a controlled outlet of people's real emotions, so that's literally not even Soviet but simply standard propaganda methodology.

As for the benefits, to make a long story short, Prigozhin's antics are basically best described as "narrative spiking". You have Western spin doctors carefully crafting their cool aid, and everyone in the West (well, at least main stream media) is just standing around drinking it pleasantly, everything it good, everything is fine. Then, Prigozhin rides into the party on a Harley Davidson and a leather jacket and cracks two bottles of vodka and just drops them right into the cool aid like he doesn't even care. Suddenly everyone is getting drunk Prigozhin sauce, the calm and orderly party, more of a get together really, turns into a rowdy frat blowout with people losing their fucking minds about some coup happening or some shit. Everyone is suddenly a giddy Joe Rogan rambling on about their pet theories, as deep into things without having the slightest clue of what you're talking about as you can possibly get.

Why would you want to do this?

It's the only way for Russia to impact Western narrative and disrupt the medicine of the Western spin doctors. A "coup" in Russia was obviously not part of any plan in the West and it's then really difficult to blend back in these events into whatever the next version of reality and talking points are supposed to be.

To make matters worse, since these unexpected events in some ways go along with parts of the Western narrative (that Russia governance is incompetent and about to collapse ... any day now) all the foot soldiers of the Western narrative machine roll with it. These people still have jobs of reporting the news, and this is clearly news worthy and they are forced to report on things without there being time for a narrative consensus of the people who matter to be formed. Certainly sounds good to present things as a real coup in Russia and Putin is weak and so on, so Western journalists need to say something and so extend the existing narrative in a logical way to include these events.

Measures are certainly extreme, but this coup happens literally the day after both Ukraine and senators in the US rapidly escalate the talk of nuclear events in Ukraine and Nuclear retaliation for any nuclear events in Ukraine, that would obviously be Russia's doing by definition.

If you're Putin or anyone in Russian governance, intelligence or the military planning ... this is really alarming talk, by a side that just made a movie trailer for an offensive that has not made any gains remotely close to "cutting the land bridge", and arguably no actual gains at all.

... So, what's even more newsworthy than all this nuclear talk and would disrupt any actual plan, political or operational, nuke wise? A literal coup in Russia might do the trick. Basically throwing out a wild card in a tricky situation to at least disrupt your opponents plans.

Whether Russian analysts and decision makers were genuinely concerned of this nuclear narrative or not, or viewed it as sabre rattling, I don't know, but it's certainly something people would pay attention to.

However, there's also other benefits for such an event and reasons to stage it. Ukrainians and the West just went on an emotional rollercoaster of all their dreams suddenly coming true and then ... nada. Likewise, ordinary Russians were just faced with the anxiety and abyss of real chaos and then immediately relieved and comforted with the warm cloak of order and familiarity.

Which is literally the exact definition of this mythical Soviet propaganda system, which as an explainer for the entire liberal progressive movement has scant evidence, nor does it seem even possible for Soviet agents to be orchestrating the "left" since several decades right under the Western intelligence and media system's nose, but if you take this Soviet propaganda hypothesis and actually lay it out and ask what would fit this methodology, this whole Prigozhin saga is an exact match and clearly feasible and with direct communication between Prigozhin and Putin and Putin and everyone else of importance, there is clearly the organisational opportunity to pull it off, the scope is limited enough to be some actual feasible plan, "no blood was spilled".

The coup was always stoppable if it was just Wagner (and a fraction of Wagner at that). It's just that it was quite unclear if it was stoppable before they marched into central Moscow, or at least caused serious damage in the outskirts.

4,000 men with no logistical support could be beaten, especially as defections would become increasingly likely if pardons were offered while no sign of a larger rebellion emerged. But they could also tank the war effort in Ukraine and cause an incredible amount of damage. The Wagner column was about the size of the garrison in Mariupol, and they caused Russia a very hard time even with half of them retreating and extremely loose rules of engagement from the air. You can't really retake your own city that same way.

My guess would be that Prigozhin hoped more people would bandwagon aboard, since dissatisfaction with Shoigu is apparently widespread in the military. He's an outsider for one, and, as the war continues to go poorly, the military is upset that it remains subservient to the FSB and other former KGB elements, even as it grows in power and ability to challenge their dominance in the state (60+% of Putin's ministers have some prior tie to the intelligence services.)

Notably, after a reshuffle coup over removing Shoigu, there has been no show of unity, a video of Shoigu and Putin together, etc. No strong sign to show the coup demands weren't met. All they have released is a video of what looks like stock footage with no sound. Even Russian milbloggers are skeptical. It's a tough position because Putin can't remove Shoigu without looking weak, but then the military is also likely clamouring for his dismissal considering the absolute shit show to date. Notably for public opinion, Wagner left cheered as heros and MoD forces moved in to jeers and cat calls.

If Shoigu goes and Prigozhin keeps some meaningful part of Wagner for his "duties" in Belarus, then the reshuffle coup is successful, and the best predictor of a coup in political science, bar none, is a previously successful coup.

I imagine they will try to MacArthur Shoigu, keep him in the title but strip all power, but he sort of has to go along for that to work.

Team reality did predict it: — boethius

Well kudos for that! It did all look theatrical at times for sure, but shooting your own helicopters down is a bit extravagant unless Prigozhin suddenly turns up in the West telling stories to intelligence agencies or some such. Or am I missing something?

Well kudos for that! It did all look theatrical at times for sure, but shooting your own helicopters down is a bit extravagant unless Prigozhin suddenly turns up in the West telling stories to intelligence agencies or some such. Or am I missing something? — unenlightened

Well, first of all, maybe it is just a shit show. My main point is that people who say masterful Russian propaganda methods exercised through the West's own technology platforms under NSA surveillance got Trump elected should certainly at least consider the possibility these events as staged for propaganda purposes.

Not that I'm saying you personally say Russia got Trump elected, or even played a contributing roll (rather than the 2 billion of free airtime the Western media provided Trump), just that my basic point is in that context.

That being said, if it is staged the critical problem is selling it to Western media. You need to give to get. Prigozhin needs to "go the distance", at least shit talking wise, so that this is reported as a full blown coup, rather than Prigozhin just clowning around and looking stupid. Response of Western media could be ... yeah ... right, I'll believe it when there's actual fighting going on.

So, how do you sell it? Talk is cheap, so you first would want to say things that really seem "coup like", such as Ukraine never intended to attack Russia, the generals are traitors etc. ... of course you don't want to trigger an actual coup, so you also say you 100% support the elected president and you're not even doing a coup but just a "march for peace".

Then, yeah, maybe down a few helicopters. Did this even happen? Who knows. And if it did happen, could also just be staged as helicopters can be remotely controlled, shot down, or then fire fake missiles (i.e. missiles without warheads) and then set off a harmless fireworks from the helicopter and "go down". All this is happening inside Russia, so events can be 100% controlled. However, I haven't even seen any footage of these alleged helicopter engagements.

The video that supposedly proves Wagner came under attack is just a camera jogging through a forest, no sounds of battle whatsoever, with a guy just saying they came under attack.

Now, they keep on saying the "mutiny" was bloodless ... so at least the Russian narrative is no one died at all. So that doesn't even seem compatible with helicopters being downed, or then the pilots weren't harmed. The Russian narrative doesn't even make any sense on this point.

However, the whole point of an operation like this, if it's staged, is that it's so zany that it's impossible to tell. Sure, zany shit happens all the time. Take Trump's run for president, or Hunter Biden's laptop or then the character arch of Saddam Hussein. Really crazy shit does happen that genuinely doesn't seem scripted and is just driven by zany characters doing wild shit. Maybe Prigozhin's Russia's version of Trump and Ye, just 100% riffing it all the time.

What is the truth when it comes to the cloak and dagger doings of intelligence agencies and their associates, I view as best to keep an open mind, maybe it will become clear later or never. But as a matter of principle, I feel it's wise to assume people's who's job is to deceive you ... may actually succeed in doing so from time to time.