Have you tried climate? Abortion? — jorndoe
It's like the police always say to mugging victims "just give them your handbag, it's not worth your life". It doesn't somehow become less sensible advice at different scales. International legal action is the way to deal with criminal acts of invasion, not utterly devastating your country to somehow 'teach them a lesson'. — Isaac
That's a nice analogy, so what's wrong with it? — Srap Tasmaner
the more in debt they get to those institutions, the less sovereignty they have. Having pecuniary free market restrictions on your economy limits economic freedom — Isaac
Right. So if no peace deal is reached, history tells us the war will drag on for decades. So remind me again how that helps the people of Ukraine? Remind me how decades of war gets them any more freedom, any more 'sovereignty'. Just your wild and unsubstantiated hope that somehow Russia will run out of artillery first? — Isaac
On what basis? The economy is already tanking https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-war-drags-europes-economy-succumbs-crisis-2022-08-23/ . What grounds do you have for believing this level of militarisation can be sustained for another ten years? — Isaac
Again, on what grounds? This is just pie in the sky wishful thinking at the moment. How is the west going to sustain this level of militarisation for decades when it can't even keep out of recession after just two years? — Isaac
Yes. Again, history shows that strong ceasefire negotiations work — Isaac
What exactly? — Isaac
Because I'm darkly fascinated by this new trend for absolute certainty in the mainstream opinion. Ukraine, Covid, ... both shared this odd feature that even though solidly qualified experts in the respective fields disagreed, the lay populace were utterly convinced that only one side were right and the other were little short of murderers. I'm exploring that. — Isaac
Lack of international law. — Isaac
just give them your handbag, it's not worth your life — Isaac
After the communism Eastern European countries were in a rather poor state, with rather poor infrastructures, inefficient, seriously outdated industry, etc. Then they were in significant debt from the IMF (with significant part of it relieved) and they had 'imposed' pecuniary free market restrictions. It did not limit their freedom — Jabberwock
their freedom (i.e. HFI) soared. — Jabberwock
Well, at least we see Russia is running out of artillery, although slowly — Jabberwock
What you propose is wild and unsubstantiated hope that somehow Russia will leave Ukraine alone if we give them more and more, even though it has no reason to do so. — Jabberwock
It needs to be sustained at the level higher than Russia, which hurts economically much more. — Jabberwock
Sure, I have already said that strong ceasefire negotiations work. What is required for that, however, is some sort of conflict resolution. — Jabberwock
You cite hypothetical unknown assumed factors that would prevent Putin from starting the war. If that is so, I can cite hypothetical unknown assumed factors that would push Putin to war. — Jabberwock
do not expect that an argument that you are unwilling to support will get any serious consideration. — Jabberwock
I'm not sure "teaching them a lesson" is the only other possible goal in refusing. I think there are times when people acknowledge that you might be able to take what you want from them, but you're going to have to take it, they're not going to give it to you just on the threat that you'll take it. — Srap Tasmaner
if a population could sustain a strategy of not complying, they raise the cost of control for the would-be boss, and that's rational, even if you can't be sure you're raising the cost enough to deter him. — Srap Tasmaner
It did. It just did so less than the relief from communist dictatorship improved it. — Isaac
What dataset are you using, the HFI started in 2013 with data going back from their previous methodology to 2008. The countries you're mentioning were last under communist rule in the late 20th century? — Isaac
Not to any meaningful extent. what matters is their ability to replenish, and as the historical data I've presented shows, that ability is usually sufficient to maintain war for decades. That Russia will be the exception for some reason is wishful thinking. — Isaac
It's not wild and unsubstantiated. I've provided you with the evidence of armistices working. — Isaac
Notwithstanding that, your two suggestions here make no sense together. If Russia are going to run out of artillery first, then they must know that. If they know that, then they know they're going to lose, therefore they have good reason to accept terms.
You can't have it both ways. Ukraine can't have an excellent chance of winning a war, depleting Russia's armoury to almost redundancy, and threatening Putin's grip on power... and also claim Russia has no reason at all to accept terms. Either continued war is an existential risk for Russia or it isn't. — Isaac
It's not wild and unsubstantiated. I've provided you with the evidence of armistices working. — Isaac
It doesn't. — Isaac
Ceasefires are conflict resolution. Read the paper. — Isaac
I'm not the one suggesting your opinion is nonsense, remember? I think your opinion is perfectly valid. I'm defending the claim that mine isn't. — Isaac
Serious consideration isn't a priority, nor would I expect it on the basis of argument (been there). — Isaac
It's like the police always say to mugging victims "just give them your handbag, it's not worth your life". — Isaac
Matthew 5:39.But I say unto you, That ye resist not evil: but whosoever shall smite thee on thy right cheek, turn to him the other also. — Jesus
Matthew 16:24.If anyone would come after me, let him deny himself and take up his cross and follow me. — Jesus
I think of this whole thing as giving the lie to the libertarian (or anarcho-capitalist) worldview that trade and commerce and markets are natural and self-sustaining.
It's all so depressing, men with power who want more, men with money who want more.
So in fact their freedom increased? — Jabberwock
now their HFI is quite high, much higher than Russia's. Thus is it reasonable to assume that if Ukraine stopped being 'just like Russia', as you claim it is now, and was more like them, HFI of its citizens would significantly improve. — Jabberwock
It would be sufficient to maintain a simmering conflict, as you wrote, not for a full-scale war effort which it is taking now. — Jabberwock
The conflict would be resolved by getting Russia to a point when Ukraine will be able to integrate with the West without Russia preventing it. — Jabberwock
Without addressing all the particular reasons for why this is not likely in this particular case — Jabberwock
trade deficit — Jabberwock
exports income — Jabberwock
current account — Jabberwock
ruble exchange rate — Jabberwock
it might be reasonable to turn e.g. to basket-based indices, such as Romir. — Jabberwock
But the police themselves confront. overwhelm and arrest muggers, and do risk their lives. Otherwise they would have no authority to give any advice. — unenlightened
even the police do not advise giving up your home, your children and your neighbours to the muggers. — unenlightened
We cannot know the consequences of our acts in advance, nor the counterfactual consequences of alternative acts with hindsight. Gandhi suggested that Hitler could have been stopped by non-violent means but even he admitted it would have been difficult and costly — unenlightened
The policy of non-resistance has the highest authority — unenlightened
It seems as if there's an epidemic of imagination loss going around. Is open war the only alternative to non-resistance? — Isaac
Yes, that's right. Russian HFI is low, so not being like Russia raise the HFI. I don't think that's in dispute. You've not provided the data you were using for your claims that their HFI soared. — Isaac
Right. But how? You've not provided a mechanism. How does Ukraine get Russia to a point where is will give up all the territory it has gained, but somehow not run into exactly the same supply problems Russia faces? And all this without racking up so massive a debt that it will never get it's sovereignty back? And at no point provoking Russia into using nuclear weapons? And all this somehow without Russia realising that capability (otherwise Russia would have good reason to negotiate now)? — Isaac
What reasons? Do you think all armistices only came on the back of serious of amazingly successful previous agreements? Minsk agreements were crap, so we do better. It's not a difficult concept to get your head around. There's loads of expert opinion online about why the Mins agreements failed, if you're interested. As there is on why negotiations might succeed. It's really daft to try and learn this stuff from me. Look it up, you have the internet. — Isaac
Russia's balance of trade
US balance of trade
Russia exports (rising)
US exports (falling)
Russia current account
US current account
The Ruble
The Dollar — Isaac
...and the equivalent rate for the US/Europe would be...? Of course, you don't have one because the aim is simply to give an alarming rate fo Russia and leave it there. — Isaac
Ukraine's sovereignty is like the handbag. It's not worth fighting for — Isaac
Ukrainian's freedom... that might be worth sacrificing a generation for, that's not just a handbag. But fighting for freedom is not a matter of changing borders, it's a matter of changing systems, and even then not just exchanging one form of exploitation for another. — Isaac
No, there is passive resistance and underground resistance, and argument and demonstrative protest, and a thousand variations thereof, from labour strike to hunger strike and from assassination attempt to the whole repertoire of terrorism. — unenlightened
When they were communist states, they were more like Russia, so when they stopped, their HFI would increase (if it was assessed then). — Jabberwock
I think it is quite possible that Russia will not give up all the territories it has gained and Ukraine will not be able to get them back. As I said, the main point is depleting Russia's potential to the point when it is no longer capable of threatening Ukraine. — Jabberwock
And why would Putin use nuclear weapons? Free Ukraine might be a mortal threat in the future, using nukes would end his regime definitely and rather quickly. — Jabberwock
I am asking you to support it — Jabberwock
trade to GDP ratio — Jabberwock
year to year, or compare 2021 — Jabberwock
depend as heavily on trade — Jabberwock
several PPP indices — Jabberwock
This is why removing "bad people," and putting "good people," in doesn't fix systemic issues in more complex organizations. The organization's have their own priorities and are adapted to their own survival. — Count Timothy von Icarus
The state is so important because it is (one of) the most evolved systems out there, but even moreso because its survival needs line up with those of its citizens in the way a corporations' won't. A state will tend to evolve systems that promote the welfare of its citizens for the same reason that bodies will tend to evolve capacities that meet the needs of their cells (although this doesn't stop things like cancer from existing in particular instances). — Count Timothy von Icarus
I suspect this skepticism is a luxury. The sovereignty of my nation is not in question. For some, achieving sovereignty is the necessary first step to securing freedom. — Srap Tasmaner
Why do you also think there's little to choose between being under Putin's boot and the IMF? Surely there's more room to maneuver against an enemy that puts you in debt than one that assassinates or imprisons you. — Srap Tasmaner
Donbas and Crimea — Isaac
Crimea — Isaac
Crimea — Isaac
The military security situation in the area of the Korean peninsula, which has undergone a fundamental change due to the reckless military moves of the U.S. and its followers, more clearly indicates what mission the nuclear weapons of [North Korea] should carry out. I remind the U.S. military of the fact that the ever-increasing visibility of the deployment of the strategic nuclear submarine and other strategic assets may fall under the conditions of the use of nuclear weapons specified in the [North Korean] law on the nuclear force policy. — Kang Sun Nam (via The Hill · Jul 20, 2023)
You're right that none of this economic pressure amounts to direct threats to life, but life expectancy reduction due to poverty kills more people than any authoritarian regime could ever muster. — Isaac
Maybe there's a similar mistake here: under an authoritarian regime, you have no freedom, no opportunity to control your fate; if you're poor but free, at least there's a chance you can do something. People do across the board refuse to believe that great, impersonal, historical forces affect them, so they reject the idea that poverty would be as deadly for them as a bullet. — Srap Tasmaner
Something unites all those things that sets them apart from war;
1) they kill fewer people.
2) they make less profit.
3) the mainstream left have decided that (1) and (2) are suddenly irrelevant compared to war uniquely in the case of Ukraine. — Isaac
We understand the story of being oppressed directly because we can relate (we think we can), we've all been told to do stuff we don't want to do, we've all been to school. — Isaac
Yes. That's just saying the same thing I said. Communism isn't good for the HFI score. How does that relate to a comparison of modern Russia (not communist) and modern Ukraine (not a Baltic State). And why are we speculating on these unavailable data sources when we have available ones with which to make the comparison? — Isaac
So it's 'leave them there' in both scenarios then. All that talk of sovereignty and freedom was a waste, you're expecting ten more years of occupation anyway. — Isaac
So the debate is around how best to neutralise the Russian threat. Political instability and isolation, negotiations, agreements... Or use up all their bombs by cunningly giving them Ukrainian hospitals to fire at until they run out... — Isaac
Again, I can't think why you'd be asking me. If you think the people concerned about the risk of nuclear escalation are wrong then I suggest you take it up with them. If you don't, then why on earth are you asking me as if there wasn't a good set of reasons?
This notion that a bunch of laymen can somehow 'thrash out' the data and come up with answers that have defied the people whose job it is to do exactly that is absolutely dumbfounding. — Isaac
You're not asking me to support it, if you wanted support you would have read the relevant expert opinion already.
You're using mock astonishment as a rhetorical device to imply that there isn't any support, despite knowing full well there is. I'm not playing that game. — Isaac
...are certainly all other measures of economic stability. Now...where did I put that article about cherry-picking... — Isaac
Get involved in philosophical discussions about knowledge, truth, language, consciousness, science, politics, religion, logic and mathematics, art, history, and lots more. No ads, no clutter, and very little agreement — just fascinating conversations.