Nobody has said that, but some people are extremely willing to forget the annexing part, if somehow that would follow from the other objectives (and wouldn't be worth mentioning). Nazi Zelensky!!! :joke:

If Zelensky was greeted with the standing ovation last time, now Republicans didn't want to see him in public.

At least the EU is giving the thumbs up for Ukraine even without Mr Orban from Hungary:

The European Union decided Thursday to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, a momentous moment and stunning reversal for a country at war that had struggled to find the backing for its membership aspirations and long faced obstinate opposition from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Now as the Russian wartime economy is getting to it's feet, the projections (in my country) on how long it will take for Russia to manufacture weapons to the now experienced losses are coming down. Last year people were talking about 2030, now it's come back to 2026-2028.

the Russian wartime economy is getting to it's feet — ssu

Warring was what they had planned all along, or Ukraine turned out tougher than they anticipated, or ...?

Surely they didn't anticipate the Ukrainian response. But now they are adapting to it.

Yet Putin can hope that the Americans seeing just 'forever wars' around will just cave in and his friend Donald will help to 'reason' with the Ukrainians. And that in the end he will get what he wanted, all it needs is simply similar will as during the finest hour of Russians during the Great Patriotic War.

they didn't anticipate the Ukrainian response — ssu

That would be my guess as well, though there are some (ambiguous) signs...
"others are out to destroy Russia"
tightening domestic control + nationalist propaganda/indoctrination
"new world order" (the multipolar thing)
nuclear armament + posturing
foreign destabilization efforts
threats + polemics
cold war trajectory

'I Didn’t Change My Number': Macron Still Open To Dialogue With Putin If It Helps To Bring Peace
^{— Samuel Petrequin · AP · Dec 15, 2023}

At some point the French president stopped the relationship with us. We didn’t do it, I didn’t. He did. If there’s interest, we’re ready. If not, we’ll cope. — Putin

I didn’t start the war unilaterally, breaking the treaties I’d agreed to. And it wasn’t France that decided to commit war crimes in the north of Ukraine, making discussions virtually impossible. Well, we have to be serious, so I have a very simple position. I haven’t changed my number. If President Putin has a willingness to engage in dialogue and serious proposals to move forward and emerge from the conflict and build a lasting peace, that is to say one that respects international law and therefore Ukrainian interests and sovereignty, I’ll take the call. — Macron

How to negotiate with alternate world type stuff? The Kremlin has demands masquerading as proposals.


Oryx have investigated equipment losses (ongoing) — Russian, Ukrainian — which seems rather comprehensive, Russian in particular. Personnel losses are reportedly rather comprehensive as well, in line with the amount of explosives burned.

U.S. intelligence assesses Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 casualties -source (yahoo)
^{— Jonathan Landay, Guy Faulconbridge, Daniel Wallis, Bill Berkrot, Jonathan Oatis · Reuters · Dec 12, 2023}
Russia Has Lost Almost 90% of Its Prewar Army, U.S. Intelligence Says (msn)
^{— Warren P Strobel, Matthew Luxmoore · WSJ · Dec 12, 2023}

The numbers are a noticeable fraction of invasion forces and available resources, unlike Crimea 2014. The Kremlin may not care much about humans (though they keep speaking of "Ukrainian sacrifices"); did they anticipate those numbers though? What do they anticipate for them to "cleanse" Ukraine? (in Kremlin-speak, "Nazi" ≈ non-irredentist + having chosen not-Kremlin, or whatever, which may or may not include Nazis)

According to multiple sources, Dec 17, 2023:

Finland was taken and dragged into NATO. What did we have, some kind of dispute with Finland? All disputes, including those of a territorial nature in the middle of the 20th century, were all resolved a long time ago. We had the best, most heartfelt relations. Economically, everything was developing. Yes, in the timber industry, there were some problems linked to the necessity to develop timber processing within the country. But that was all. Just a small detail in reality. There weren't any problems, but now there will be. Because we've now been forced to create a Leningrad military district and concentrate a certain number of military units there. Why do they need that? It's just nonsense. The same goes for other countries, including NATO countries. With whom did we have problems? Nobody. They're the ones who are artificially creating problems with us. Because they don't want such a competitor as Russia. — Putin

Starting false here (nope, Finland chose, Sweden chose, Ukraine chose) again exemplifies the alternate world type stuff. Conclusion(s) kind of fizzle out (ex falso quodlibet). Seems doubtful that the Kremlin circle could have missed / not understood (i.e. mala fides), but maybe they do need a wake-up call? The UN (and the good baker Jones of upper Negombo, Sri Lanka) have repeatedly clarified, and, yes, their claims/side have been considered. Unless/until called out, they can continue their moves and threats and story-telling. Ought a (diplomatic) dialogue address these issues?

At this point the West has its own persisting issues with NATO which the enlargement didn't fix:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-2024-reelection-pull-out-of-nato-membership/676120/
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/12/15/i-haven-t-changed-my-number-macron-still-open-to-peace-dialogue-with-putin_6347805_4.html

Ukrainians may have a not-so-merry Christmas this year:

Analysis: Ukraine has had a terrible week. Blame the US and the EU
^{— Nick Paton Walsh · CNN · Dec 17, 2023}

Some got caught up in traffic jam:

Third Ukrainian truck driver dies in Poland border blockades-TV
^{— Ron Popeski, Alistair Bell · Reuters · Dec 16, 2023}

Cold war at least, well err + some hot spots:

In Russia, All Policy Roads Lead to the War
^{— Alexander Gabuev · WSJ · Dec 8, 2023}

Russia boosts nuclear forces amid ‘hybrid war’ with the West: Putin
^{— Al Jazeera · Dec 19, 2023}

In Ukraine, those who are aggressive towards Russia, and in Europe and in the United States – do they want to negotiate? Let them. But we will do it based on our national interests. We will not give up what is ours. — Pukin

The article summarizes some of what's come out of the Kremlin lately. Threats (still) extend to a couple or three continents altogether; Moldova and Finland have received a bit more of that lately; their Ukraine objective apparently extends to, well, Ukraine. There doesn't seem to be much to come after.

Sanctions can be a way to express (for some at least) ...
• "We're not going to help, or partake in, what you're doing"
• "You won't benefit in any way from us while doing that, expect counter-measures"
• "We won't make it any easier for you to continue doing that"
• "Our depreciation is serious, and we won't be complicit or contribute"
Something along those lines. Expressed by action, not just statements (e.g. the UN).

Did the Kremlin move Russia into a wartime economy over Ukraine...? (Due to miscalculation?) What reactions do they expect from this stuff?

And who the heck is Igor Salikov anyway? If he is who/what he claims, I'd recommend carrying a Geiger counter and staying within walking distance of a hospital. Stay off balconies, too.

In the case of how Finland joined NATO, a far more accurate would be: the Marin administration was taken and dragged into NATO by an overwhelming pressure from the Finnish people.

After the invasion I remember prime minister Marin's first response was "We'll think of it in the Party conference in summer", which just showed how clueless she was. She was quickly put in line even by her own party leadership and in 48 hours or so the tone had totally changed as it dawned how much the World changed in late February 2022. Then it was an issue to Finland to pressure the Swedes. Unfortunately with that Erdogan and Orban halted the process with Sweden.

No more NATO options, but the real thing...


But yes, as time goes the narrative of Finland and Sweden being dragged to NATO by the US will surely pop up. After all, small states cannot decide anything themselves.

, if anything like that, the Kremlin pushed Finland towards NATO, that just doesn't sound as nice/imposing/strong in terms of Kremlin propaganda.

the Great Patriotic War — ssu

A mad time + place. The Great Purge preceded the Great Patriotic War. Incidentally, invading Nazis found mass graves from the genocidal activities of Stalin's NKVD (isn't often brought up, was after all used as propaganda by the Nazis). Not exactly the kinds of things we want to see again.

Memories grow sweeter with time.

Hmm... Worries have been raised that the fighter-bombers were shot down by arms supplied by the West... I suppose, had they been supplied by Moldova or Lithuania, then the Kremlin could conceivably come up with another pretext for threats/aggression (though it would be a...posttext).

The Russia Aerospace Forces (VKS) reportedly lost three Su-34 attack aircraft in southern Ukraine between December 21-22. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed three Su-24 aircraft on December 22 in the southern direction, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian air defenses downed the Russian aircraft in the Kherson direction near Krynky.[8] Russian milbloggers responded to the isolated incident with great concern about Ukraine’s air defense capabilities in southern Ukraine.[9] The VKS previously lost two Mi-8 helicopters, a Su-34 bomber, and a Su-35 fighter during an incident in Bryansk Oblast on May 13, 2023, which Russian forces similarly seized on to voice anxiety over Ukrainian air defense capabilities.[10]

[8]
https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid09rfymGKjCXTxFQfY6whVqgpENGj9v1vpoQ96E7Jdj3TSDHtreps6abFAavdZNKpAl
https://t.me/MykolaOleshchuk/168
https://t.me/SJTF_Odes/4255
https://t.me/rybar/55255
https://t.me/notes_veterans/14411
https://t.me/milinfolive/112984
https://t.me/vysokygovorit/13928
https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/31769

[9]
https://t.me/milinfolive/112984
https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/52885
https://t.me/grey_zone/21718
https://t.me/notes_veterans/14411
https://t.me/rybar/55255
https://t.me/vysokygovorit/13928
https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/31769

[10]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-13-2023
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-jets-helicopters-downed/32410378.html
— Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: December 22, 2023 · Institute for the Study of War · Dec 22, 2023

Kyiv might have declared a no-fly zone in Ukrainian airspace [...] (Dec 10, 2023)

Another one down:

Not long ago I announced my intention to run for office. On December 17, we held a meeting of the initiative group, which supported my nomination. On December 23, the Central Election Commission refused to register my initiative group.

Due to restrictions established by law, I will not be able to hold a second meeting of the initiative group, but we can nominate my candidacy from a political party. I ask you to consider the possibility of holding a congress and nominating me from the "Yabloko" party.
— Yekaterina Duntsova · Dec 23, 2023

The voiced claims of the commission for holding the meeting have no legal basis: we collected all the passport data of the participants in advance and verified them, the notary also certified that the signatures were signed with his own hands. Voting on issues on the meeting agenda took place in strict accordance with the law. Let me remind you that on the eve of the decision, the Ministry of Justice came to the notary with an "unscheduled inspection". — Yekaterina Duntsova · Dec 23, 2023

In the present system her chances would be slim anyway.

In the West it is mostly forgotten that in 1939 USSR and the Nazi Germany have signed the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact with the secret clause concerning the partition of Eastern Europe (USSR has invaded Poland soon after the Nazi invasion). Some of the mass graves discovered by Germans were of Polish officers who were interned on the lands taken over by Russia and then executed by NKVD. The West basically overlooked the fact in order not to offend the new 'ally'. Due to that controversy and the protests over the Yalta accords, Russians (the former Nazi collaborators) were invited to the London victory parade, while Poles (who as the first fought with Nazis and then joined the Western forces, e.g. in the Battle of England) were not.

Continuing earlier suggestions, this can work to free Ukraine (whatever links are embedded)...

• no-fly zone in Ukrainian airspace officially declared by Ukraine
• Ukrainian no-fly zone (and that alone) maintained by combined international air force designated so by Kyiv
• with advance warning, hostilities toward combined air force deterred or neutralized

To my knowledge, there isn't anything against this by international law. Besides, it's Ukrainian airspace. Logistics etc demanding. Where combined air force lands is irrelevant as long as OK'd by Kyiv (it's their airspace to defend, their choice to make). None of this is proxy war or terrorism, or intended so. After some time with clearer skies, civilians can be expected to be a bit safer, though not to the extent of resuming international commercial air traffic.

• combined air force turn to hostile artillery, missiles + launchers, mortars, ammunition depots, arms transports

Combined air force not limited by minefields. Can be monitored by international observers, e.g. to ensure integrity or whatever. After some time, civilians can be expected to be safer, maybe to the extent that Ukrainians having fled can return (assuming what they call home hasn't been razed). As of typing a fifth or so of Ukraine is occupied.

• Ukrainian ground forces can better sweep minefields and move

Call it a "special defense operation" if you must (or escalation or both). Doubtful that the Kremlin can withstand such a move (cf their posturing propaganda threats). A fairly straightforward strategy. Can send a message to other would-be invaders, by the way. But, while reasonable enough, it's not likely to happen (giving fuel to things like @boethius's "drip feed" hypothesis), at least not with NATO as the combined international air force:

What is a no-fly zone, and why has NATO so far rejected calls for one over Ukraine?
^{— Teaganne Finn · NBC · Mar 7, 2022}

Incidentally, such a combined air force could ask Kyiv for additional (political democratic transparency non-aggression) guarantees. Pro et contra?

America has thrown its proxy Ukraine to the lions. America's immorality is unmeasurable. What's a few hundred thousand dead Ukrainians and a land devastated?

THE BRICS FOREVER, AN END TO COLONIALISM.

THE BRICS FOREVER, AN END TO COLONIALISM. — boagie

Resident BRICS fanboy in the hoooouse!

To my knowledge, there isn't anything against this by international law. Besides, it's Ukrainian airspace. Logistics etc demanding. Where combined air force lands is irrelevant as long as OK'd by Kyiv (it's their airspace to defend, their choice to make). None of this is proxy war or terrorism, or intended so. After some time with clearer skies, civilians can be expected to be a bit safer, though not to the extent of resuming international commercial air traffic. — jorndoe

'No-fly zone' effectively means 'bombing Russian SAM sites by NATO forces'. How exactly is that different from NATO starting a war with Russia?

BRICS FOREVER, AN END TO COLONIALISM — boagie

@boagie, are you a bot...?

'No-fly zone' effectively means 'bombing Russian SAM sites by NATO forces'. How exactly is that different from NATO starting a war with Russia? — Jabberwock

Well, it wouldn't be a NATO operation (under the auspices of NATO), except the combined force would include NATO members. More importantly, it would be a bona fides Ukraine defense operation, operating in Ukraine, irrespective of invader, within Kyiv's mandate. Wouldn't be an invasion of Russia. But, you're right, it could (incorrectly) be perceived/cast (by some) as NATO warring against Russia, which would be propagandized, especially because such a move can push invading forces out of Ukraine. That's the "wargame" set up by Kremlin strategists. Ironically perhaps, such a move could save lives, defender/Ukrainian lives at least (while limiting propagation of Kremlin authoritarianism).

But, [...] it's not likely to happen — Dec 27, 2023

Analysis: Putin promises Xi to 'fight for five years' in Ukraine
^{— Katsuji Nakazawa · Nikkei Asia · Dec 28, 2023}

↑ some of this is news to me

Analysis: Putin promises Xi to 'fight for five years' in Ukraine
— Katsuji Nakazawa · Nikkei Asia · Dec 28, 2023

↑ some of this is news to me — jorndoe

It is not a big surprise. Now the time goes on the side of Putin and Russia, so they are ready to keep fighting and maintaining a patience which we had never seen previously. Probably I am wrong, but I see this ending as a win for Russia. They will obtain Crimea and some other territories like the Donbas, and all the effort and fund coming from the West will go to the rubbish...

I wonder what would happen to Ukraine afterward. Does anyone really think they deserve to join the EU?

It is not a big surprise. — javi2541997

What about the surprise to Xi? Maybe that shouldn't have come as a surprise; reportedly it did though.


In other news:

Takeaways from AP investigation into Russia’s cover-up of deaths caused by dam explosion in Ukraine
^{— Samya Kullab, Illia Novikov · AP · Dec 28, 2023}

What about the surprise to Xi? Maybe that shouldn't have come as a surprise; — jorndoe

True.

I think Xi is thinking about long-term economics. Xi (and the rest of us, absolutely) considers the end of this war as a good point to start in a new era for economic recovery and stability. But it is obvious that Putin will not tolerate being treated as a clown, and he will not surrender to NATO. It is impressive that, even when all the blocks and financial sanctions, Russia is still there, keeping up with the times. They are determined to take themselves to the limit of the cause, and this is the victory of Russia.

Well, it wouldn't be a NATO operation (under the auspices of NATO), except the combined force would include NATO members. More importantly, it would be a bona fides Ukraine defense operation, operating in Ukraine, irrespective of invader, within Kyiv's mandate. Wouldn't be an invasion of Russia. But, you're right, it could (incorrectly) be perceived/cast (by some) as NATO warring against Russia, which would be propagandized, especially because such a move can push invading forces out of Ukraine. That's the "wargame" set up by Kremlin strategists. Ironically perhaps, such a move could save lives, defender/Ukrainian lives at least (while limiting propagation of Kremlin authoritarianism). — jorndoe

No, it would not be operating in Ukraine, unless I completely misunderstand what you mean by 'no-fly zone'. There is already a 'no-fly zone' in most of Ukraine for Russians: they cannot fly farther than about 30 km from the front line, otherwise they risk being shot down by Ukrainian SAMs. To push them further away would require flying over the frontline, which would require bombing Russian SAM sites located much farther. It still would be NATO member planes bombing targets in Russia.

EDIT: The 30 km range refers to typical shorter range SAM deployments. With such systems like Patriots the distance must be much farther away. I cannot find much hard data, but it is reasonable to assume based on the ranges that most Russian sorties (i.e. UMPK/KAB attacks) take place about 70-90 km from the frontline. In other words, beside Crimea, Russian planes barely enter the Ukrainian air space.

The zone would include all of Ukraine (well, it's at Kyiv's discretion). Whatever the gory details of such an initiative, I don't know.

It still would be NATO member planes bombing targets in Russia — Jabberwock

Members, sure. (Might also be members of the EU / Asian air forces, heck, send Xi an official notification-invite for that matter.) But they wouldn't bomb inside Russia (for a while, depending), except due threats to be issued for Russian missiles entering Ukrainian airspace (direct violation). Would put the invading forces into a defensive position, taking initiative from the precarious situation of being "sitting ducks with some repellent". If bombs/missiles go Russia → Ukraine, then bombs/missiles may equally go → Russia. What's an expected range for anti-fighter-bomber SAMs (not anti-ballistic/cruise-missile SAMs)? The Kremlin's actions were repeatedly condemned by the UN, in violation of international law, which they've given a(n impunity) hand-wave. Justification isn't missing; will is missing, contrary to pledges since 2022 by various parties.

But, [...] it's not likely to happen — Dec 27, 2023

It can turn into a frozen conflict if Ukraine is not tossed under the bus, otherwise all bets are off. FYI, a somewhat related discussion paper:

Setting Transatlantic Defence up for Success: A Military Strategy for Ukraine’s Victory and Russia’s Defeat (also CEPA · Dec 17, 2023)
^{— Ministry of Defence, Estonia · AP · Dec 2023}

Anyway, at the moment, I find North Korea worrisome.

North Korea's Kim orders military to accelerate war preparations
^{— Soo-Hyang Choi, Chris Reese, Jamie Freed, Raju Gopalakrishnan · Reuters · Dec 28, 2023}

Putin has Kim's ear. Pyongyang is amenable to the Kremlin. Could they quietly nudge North Korea to do something drastic?

Members, sure. (Might also be members of the EU / Asian air forces, heck, send Xi an official notification-invite for that matter.) But they wouldn't bomb inside Russia (for a while, depending), except due threats to be issued for Russian missiles entering Ukrainian airspace (direct violation). Would put the invading forces into a defensive position, taking initiative from the precarious situation of being "sitting ducks with some repellent". If bombs/missiles go Russia → Ukraine, then bombs/missiles may equally go → Russia. What's an expected range for anti-fighter-bomber SAMs (not anti-ballistic/cruise-missile SAMs)? The Kremlin's actions were repeatedly condemned by the UN, in violation of international law, which they've given a(n impunity) hand-wave. Justification isn't missing; will is missing, contrary to pledges since 2022 by various parties. — jorndoe

The nominal range of S400 is 400 km (hence the name), but effectively against airplanes it would be about 200 km. This means that to effectively enforce a no-fly zone in Ukraine NATO planes would either have to engage targets in Russia or allow themselves to be taken out with impunity. Again, 'no-fly zone' is simply 'starting the war with Russia', which NATO countries are unwilling to do.

Informative reads, spanning roughly a year:

Russian fighter jets are struggling in Ukraine, but Ukraine can't beat their missiles and radars, researchers say
^{— Michael Peck · Business Insider · Dec 20, 2022}
The air war over Ukraine
^{— Gerry Doyle, Mariano Zafra · Reuters · Dec 14, 2023}

Ukrainian air defense has had more success than I thought.

Again, 'no-fly zone' is simply 'starting the war with Russia', which NATO countries are unwilling to do. — Jabberwock

There's a bit more to it, but, OK, so a combined international air force can simply be ruled out. (EOS)
I have no idea what kind of S-400 stocks Russia has; these are their high-end systems as far as I know.

Justification isn't missing; will is missing — Dec 29, 2023

... which adds a bit to Kremlin impunity.

The West wasn't willing to stick its neck out for Ukraine when Ukraine was still in decent shape. It sure as hell won't risk a war with Russia now that Ukraine is lost.

The West will do everything it can to avoid a humiliating defeat for themselves, by throwing Ukraine under the bus militarily and politically and ultimately putting the blame for this disaster on Ukraine. Just like it has used Ukraine as a patsy for the NordStream bombings which were obviously planned (and probably carried out) by the US.

Zelensky is already under heavy pressure to start talks with the Russians, even though it was the West that told him to block the negotiations that took place in March/April 2022. (Which is why Zelensky isn't budging now)

If I were in Ukraine's shoes, I'd try to find a way to dangle said humiliating defeat over the West's head (before the 2024 US election) and thereby force them to come with solutions. The best way to do this is to start talks with the Russians behind the West's back. Even if nothing comes from the talks, this is sure to ring alarm bells in the West.

But this assumes Ukraine has any political agency left to speak of, which is something I'm skeptical about.

I was reading your comment thinking it was @Jamal and was like "WTF is he on about...?"

Then I realized it was you and tittered to myself.

Anyway, one of you two needs to change your profile picture, pronto/posthaste.