:up:

So, for you it's all a matter of trust or lack of it, not a matter of exercising your critical intelligence? — Janus

Ultimately I'm just taking scientists at their word, so yes trust is important. And over the last decade or so my trust in academia has eroded a great deal, with Covid being the nail on that coffin.

So, for you it's all a matter of trust or lack of it, not a matter of exercising your critical intelligence?
— Janus

Ultimately I'm just taking scientists at their word, so yes trust is important. And over the last decade or so my trust in academia has eroded a great deal, with Covid being the nail on that coffin. — Tzeentch

Deciding whether to trust climate scientists or not does use critical intelligence.

I'm amazed at the lack of skepticism from the average person towards both media and government. It's not like they do not have clear record of nefarious and outright deceptive behavior. Why do people so easily keep trusting them with so much shit? Where is a speck of suspended judgment to be found? It is insane.

Listen to all these critical thinkers who, despite getting their silly armchair musings shot down over and over again regarding a subject one has to actually know something about before talking, still try to save face by retreating into vague generalities about how unthinking the masses are.

Perfection.

Guess we’ve run through most of the denial list. There must be SOMETHING left to pick from…wonder who will be bold enough to step forward. To help, I give the following:

There’s nothing happening
There is no evidence
One record year is not global warming
The temperature record is simply unreliable
One hundred years is not enough
Glaciers have always grown and receded
Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
Mauna Loa is a volcano
The scientists aren’t even sure
Contradictory evidence:
It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
Antarctic ice is growing
The satellites show cooling
What about mid-century cooling?
Global warming stopped in 1998
But the glaciers are not melting
Antarctic sea ice is increasing
Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
Sea level in the Arctic is falling
Some sites show cooling
We don’t know why it’s happening
There’s no consensus:
Global warming is a hoax
There is no consensus
Position statements hide debate
Consensus is collusion
Peiser refuted Oreskes
The models don’t work:
We cannot trust unproven computer models
The models don’t have clouds
If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
Prediction is impossible:
We can’t even predict the weather next week
Chaotic systems are not predictable
We can’t be sure:
Hansen has been wrong before
If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the present?
The scientists aren’t even sure
They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
Climate change is natural
It happened before:
It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
Greenland used to be green
Global warming is nothing new!
The hockey stick is broken
Vineland was full of grapes
It’s part of a natural change:
Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
Mars and Pluto are warming too
CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
Climate is always changing
Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
The CO2 rise is natural
We are just recovering from the LIA
It’s not caused by CO2:
Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
Mars and Pluto are warming too
CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
What about mid-century cooling?
Geological history does not support CO2’s importance
Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
It’s the sun, stupid
Climate change is not bad
The effects are good:
What’s wrong with warmer weather?
Climate change can’t be stopped
It’s too late:
Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
It’s someone else’s problem:
Why should the U.S. join Kyoto when China and India haven’t?
The U.S. is a net CO2 sink
It’s economically infeasible:
Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster
—

https://grist.org/climate/skeptics-2/

I'm amazed at the lack of skepticism from the average person towards both media and government. It's not like they do not have clear record of nefarious and outright deceptive behavior. Why do people so easily keep trusting them with so much shit? Where is a speck of suspended judgment to be found? It is insane. — Merkwurdichliebe

So true. :clap:

A huge amount of progress has been made, but there are still problems, like the cloud problem — frank

In the late 1950s we had virtually no computer access when I was a post-grad meteorology student at the U of Chicago. (In 1962 at the U of Alabama there was a giant computer filling the wall, floor, and ceiling that was an ordeal to use.)

We learned to classify cloud formations. In atmospheric physics we studied droplets.

How many degrees do you have, if I may ask?

The cloud problem is about modeling them for long term predictions. Clouds have a huge impact on the climate, but they aren't sure if future clouds will be more flat or more columnar.

I'm wondering if quantum computers would make it possible to model it?

How many degrees do you have, if I may ask? — frank

Three, plus post-grad certification for the USAF (and USWB) 1958-59 as a meteorologist.

Three, plus post-grad certification for the USAF (and USWB) 1958-59 as a meteorologist. — jgill

That's cool. Did you do weather reports for the Vietnam war?

As a captain in the reserves in the early 1960s, having done my obligation supporting ADC and SAC at a base near the Canadian border, I was asked to go active reserves (i.e., Vietnam) or resign my commission to make room for some other junior officer. I resigned my commission (being a math grad student at the time and married). But the USAF treated me very well while I was active.

:up:

I'm amazed at the lack of skepticism from the average person towards both media and government. — Merkwurdichliebe

People are not skeptical when they are told things that they want to believe are true.

People are not skeptical when they are told things that agree with their opinion.

People are not skeptical when they are told things that they want to believe are true.

People are not skeptical when they are told things that agree with their opinion. — Agree-to-Disagree

If this is true, this is also true for you, so you have effectively said exactly nothing.

So you don't believe you have any ability as an educated layperson to critically assess the plausibility of scientific claims?

If this is true, this is also true for you, so you have effectively said exactly nothing. — Benkei

I have said something. I have made a statement that applies to most people. And yes, it also applies to people who are skeptical about climate-change/global-warming.

So you don't believe you have any ability as an educated layperson to critically assess the plausibility of scientific claims? — Janus

I have some ability of course. I live by the sea, and empirically I observe none of the supposedly world-shattering trends that people talk about. So I'm having to take someone else's word for it that there is in fact something going on.

I live by the sea, and empirically I observe none of the supposedly world-shattering trends that people talk about. — Tzeentch

True. Why haven't any of the beaches gotten smaller in the past 25 years from rising sea levels. I figured they would have closed many flooded beaches by this point.

Why haven't any of the beaches gotten smaller in the past 25 years from rising sea levels. I figured they would have closed many flooded beaches by this point. — Merkwurdichliebe

It is. I have a cousin who bought a condo in the 90s when the beach was about a 100 feet away. Now high tide comes right up to their back door, and that's even with sand dredging. Without the dredging, I think the condo would be gone. Rich people get most of the benefit from dredging. Because of the way the coast works, when they dredge for rich people, poor towns lose more coast. It's something about how the currents work.

What makes it complicated is that this has actually been happening for about 150 years. There are civil war forts where most of the fort is now under water. You can't identify single incidents like this, or look at a single graph, or look at this year's weather and decide what the climate is doing. The climate is much bigger than this year, or even the last 150 years. This is why they use super computers to sort out all the billions of variables.

People are not skeptical when they are told things that they want to believe are true. — Agree-to-Disagree

Yes, especially those who (understandably) want to believe climate change isn’t happening. There’s plenty of motivation there. I’d like to believe that too. I’d like to believe that nuclear weapons aren’t that destructive, etc.

So you’re describing yourself very well indeed.

Why haven't any of the beaches gotten smaller in the past 25 years from rising sea levels. — Merkwurdichliebe

:rofl:

Sea levels along coastlines from North Carolina to Texas have risen in excess of 10 millimeters a year (about a half inch) compared to an average of about 2 millimeters a year over the last century, said Sönke Dangendorf, an assistant professor at Tulane University. "The science is very clear."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/04/12/sea-level-rise-has-hit-southeast-us-hard-studies-say-whats-next/11637202002/#:~:text=Sea%20levels%20along%20coastlines%20from,assistant%20professor%20at%20Tulane%20University.

A 20-Foot Sea Wall? Miami Faces the Hard Choices of Climate Change

Insurers retreat from Coastal Virginia as climate risks soar

“If I don’t see it or know about it, it doesn’t exist.” Ignorance is bliss indeed.

Climate Change’s $150 Billion Hit to the U.S. Economy

https://www.wsj.com/science/environment/climate-change-us-economy-c9fbda96?mod=mhp

From the socialist bastion, Wall Street Journal.

Wall Street Journal. — Mikie

Grift central!

That bastion of integrity and wisdom.

It starts getting trustworthy when you can't get property insurance. Insurers won't take your money is reliable early warning of catastrophe.

I'm sure the insurance companies must be worried sick about those supposed two milimeters of sea level rise per year. With such numbers we may as well assume the foetal position and wait for the water to take us.

With such numbers we may as well assume the foetal position and wait for the water to take us. — Tzeentch

Aren't the Netherlands already under water?

Aren't the Netherlands already under water? — frank

Yes, the Dutch have had to deal with water for centuries. I live by the coast myself, so when the deluge comes I'll be the first to know about it. :lol:

Yes, the Dutch have had to deal with water for centuries. I live by the coast myself, so when the deluge comes I'll be the first to know about it. :lol: — Tzeentch

Ok. Send us telegram if you need buckets. :cool: