a way to work with all these other disregarded possible occurrences (and still provide an accurate representation of the probability according to this) could be to simply ignore the statistical chance of something happening that you weren't considering and only regard something as its statistical chance if you were thinking of it specifically. You would simply modify your perceived probability based on these factors. — Igitur
I would like to see other people's thoughts on this (especially about what makes an outcome significant, and see if I can expand this idea to a more complete set of principles regarding my consideration of probability. — Igitur
So for instance, Kobe Bryant having died relatively young was a lot more probable than him dying in a helicopter crash because there are many more way for that to occur than for him to specifically die in a helicopter crash.
I'm not sure if it's always a mistake to focus on the seemingly low probability of things happening in a certain way though. For example, even if there are many ways a friend could become a millionaire, I should still be surprised that she became one by winning the lottery. Or even if there were many ways for Tom Brady to win the Superbowl vs Atlanta, we should still be surprised that he could win down 3-28 at the end of the third quarter. — Count Timothy von Icarus
This begs the question: why does it matter what we think about probabilities? — Igitur
Don't forget that people don't simply don't understand probabilities. Even if they know that the Casino always wins, people like to gamble. And how many understand the Monty Hall -problem the first time they hear it, especially if they are made to play the game without any knowledge of the famous example? To understand the connection of information to probabilities is hard, actually.The idea is that there are more unaccounted possibilities in either a category that is similarly rare, has the same effect, or cause the same reaction. — Igitur
I have been thinking a lot recently about the idea of "perceived probability" — Igitur
Yeah, mostly. There is other stuff in the post, but credence is accurate. Not like the view of one particular unknown probability but how you consider occurrences (where you know the chance) when there are multiple times they could occur or multiple things that could happen. — Igitur
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