Years ago when Obama was running against Hillary, I predicted his candidacy early and his win as president. I felt like I could make that call based on the available information. Everything since Obama is so distorted by noise, I cannot manage it any more.

I've only been in the election prediction game since 2016.

That June, after the way the DNC & Obama had systematically undermined Bernie Sanders in the primaries, I had predicted that the only way HRC could lose such a "rigged campaign" was to suppress – demoralize – her own voters by being the shitty candidate that she was. Well, she did just that – 20% fewer Dems showed up to vote for her than in 2012 for Obama – by not campaigning thay Fall in the three midwestern swing states – won in both 2008 & 2012 by Obama – which decided the election by .07% ... The polls weren't "wrong": the candidate favored to win had arrogantly thrown the fucking election (NB: "Russian interference", "Jim Comey reopening investigation of the email scandal", "misogynistic Bernie Bros" & "fucking Jill Stein") had nothing to do with it).

Notice how Biden in 2020 and Harris this year have focussed like a laser beam on midwestern swing states. Also, The Clown himself and candidates he's endorsed have lost general elections (2020), special elections (2017, 2019, 2021, 2023) & midterm elections (2018, 2022) – MAGA is a ethnonationalist populist cult of 30-40% of the electorate and The Clown has been hemorraging pro-business GOP & suburban college educated white women since 2021 which made up 5-7% more (transactional) support in 2016 & 2020 (c47% each election). I'll be very surprised if The Clown gets more than 42% of voters this time.

Pulling the rug on the Ukrainians wouldn't weaken NATO. It would strengthen it.

What's weakening NATO is the fact that we're trying to drag Ukraine in even though it would lead to endless conflict with the Russians, undermining the security of everyone involved.

The only ones who would be weakened are the clowns who got us into this mess in the first place - good riddance I say to that.

And yea, Ukraine is hardly the first disaster Washington has created, but that's their problem.

Having one of the speakers of the MSG rally held last night joke that Puerto Rico is garbage is going to piss off people on both sides of the political divide. The campaign seems to have forgotten where the hell they were.

IMO, such flagrantly racist stupidity this close to election day is only going to help Harris-Walz & congressional candidates (particularly in PA & FL).

Agreed. There is a strong conservative interest in those groups who vote for their perceived interests even if it aligns them with people they otherwise do not like. They can tear down a tent as quickly make one.

Puerto Rico is garbage... — Paine

Unfortunately, most Americans regard everything about Hispanic countries as 'trash' or 'poor.'

Now it makes sense. I now understand why some representatives of Puerto Rico submitted a petition to the Congress of Spain requesting the chance of being part of the kingdom again. I can't see it possible, honestly. But Puerto Rico —and Cuba— should never have separated from Spain. We feel like they are naturally part of us, and we have huge connections with them culturally. I don't understand why in the 1898 war Washington attacked us with the aim of freeing them if they will be treated that badly by the same country in the future. 

They can't vote in general estados unidos elections, but they could when they were part of Spain. Benito Pérez Galdós —who closely won the Nobel Prize of Literature— was a congressman elected by puertorriqueños. It was a hoax the 1898 war.

Having one of the speakers of the MSG rally held last night joke that Puerto Rico is garbage is going to piss off people on both sides of the political divide. The campaign seems to have forgotten where the hell they were. — Paine

Maybe, but they don't call him "Teflon Don" for no reason.

Some of Trump's supporters agree with the sentiment that Puerto Rico is garbage (they were the one's fired up by Trump's assertions that immigrants are "poisoning our blood"). This fires them up. These are the "deplorables" that Hillary correctly mentioned (although her math was wrong; it's probably less than half). Others will simply point to the fact that it wasn't Trump himself who made the "garbage" statement, and his campaign disavowed it. But maybe it will turn off some who are on the fence. We'll know next week.

They can't vote in general estados unidos elections, — javi2541997

Puerto Ricans who have moved to one of the fifty states can vote. 8% of the population of Pennsylvania is Puerto Rican. Pennsylvania is a must-win state for Harris, so maybe this will help.

The Tiki torch crowd will shake their burning sticks no matter what is said. The thing about saying this in NYC is the long history of the people from Puerta Rico in the city. What I have learned from working with many of them is that they are closely networked with their relatives here in the States and back on the Island. I also learned that many are conservative in their views. Here is a guy who puts those elements into focus:

Let's just take a moment and realize that this has got to be one of the weirdest elections ever.

Just wanted to acknowledge the congressional element of your observation. A group who has voted reliably is suddenly in play.

:up:

29Octubre24



¡Se acerca el 5 de Roeviembre! :victory: :flower:

Wasn't there a speech from Harris but Biden made a dumb comment and now I'm having flashbacks from the deplorable basket case that was Hillary?

Pulling the rug on the Ukrainians wouldn't weaken NATO. It would strengthen it. — Tzeentch

Really??? :yikes:

Oh I get. Just like Trump threatening to take out the US ground forces out of Europe would strengthen NATO...because European countries should then really commit to their defense. Or something like delusional like that.

What's weakening NATO is the fact that we're trying to drag Ukraine in even though it would lead to endless conflict with the Russians, undermining the security of everyone involved. — Tzeentch

This is really crazy, really. Somehow you seem not to understand that it's an European objective to not let Russia defeat and conquer Ukraine (or take the parts it wants and put a "denazified" puppet regime in the carcass state that is left). How cannot you fathom this? NATO members simply would be worse of if Russia wins the war. The Baltic States would be worse. Finland and Sweden would be worse off. Something as totally evident like this comes somehow to be blurred in this anti-Americanism. Or Trumpism, for that matter. That Trump gave Afghanistan on a platter to the Taleban seems not to matter at all.

Russia wants to destroy the link between the US and Europe. Russia is against the European Union. Somehow you don't see this reality.

This is really the deafeatism that causes the West to lose it wars and emboldens Russia to annex territories from it's neighbors (which apparently you don't care about). The selectivity of anti-Americans is just incredible: somehow they can be against Israel's actions, but when it comes to Russia doing similar annexations it's OK, reasonable, realpolitik... and it's basically the fault of the US. Countries simply can do some things right and some things wrong.

And yea, Ukraine is hardly the first disaster Washington has created, but that's their problem. — Tzeentch

And this is the cause of this delusional thinking. The sheer hubris to think everything evolves around the US and that everything happening in the World because of the West is the real problem here. This creates the World where the West loses. Because for you the US is the reason for all the troubles in the World. And other countries don't matter... especially if they agree on something with the US.

What United States has done has also actually has helped. I would prefer a South Korea to exist rather have it to be a part of North Korea. Yes, I'm fully aware that South Korea wasn't a democracy until the late 1980's, but it's still totally something else than North Korea. Something else that should be helped to survive if attacked. In the same fashion was the correct thing for the US to oppose such thing as Soviet Union taking over Eastern Europe. And Ukrainians have the right to their country, it's not an artificial country that ought to be part of Russia and isn't ruled by nazis. Supporting their struggle is the correct thing.

Yet somehow being critical at US foreign policy becomes this incoherent crazy anti-americanism where the perpetrators and aggressors like Russia become victims of evil US. Poor, poor Russia.

Of course this is the election thread and even if this is an important factor in US foreign policy, it isn't important to the Americans who vote.

If Trump doesn't loose, Elon Musk will become one of the most powerful people in the new Establishment.

Note: a joke about Puerto Rico’s massive garbage problem is racist because now every anti-Trumpist can’t help but associate its people with trash.

Trump capitalizes on Biden calling his supporters garbage.

Somehow you seem not to understand that it's an European objective to not let Russia defeat and conquer Ukraine (or take the parts it wants and put a "denazified" puppet regime in the carcass state that is left). — ssu

It's obvious that the US/NATO insistence on a military rather than a diplomatic solution is a guarantee for Ukraine's eventual collapse.

So either US/NATO decisionmakers are utterly incompetent, or they are pursuing a completely different agenda that has nothing to do with the survival and well-being of Ukraine.

It is odd that the Trump campaign went to New Mexico. They have many ethnic divides but nothing a flyby gringo could capitalize upon. The place is nothing like Arizona or Texas.

Trump is up 65% to 35% in the betting markets (which have a solid track record) and ahead in swing state polling. If he outperforms his polling like he did in the last elections he will win all the swing states and it's even conceivable he could win the popular vote (hell, it's within the margin of error for some polls).

Of course, the absolute funniest situation is one where Trump wins the popular vote and loses the Electoral College, since the cognitive dissonance will be overwhelming.

But maybe he won't outperform his polls the same way. I sometimes wonder if there is a "punishment effect" in polls where supporters of a candidate they are unhappy with lie about who they support as consequence free way to voice dissent. This seems at least plausible to me because primary voters are vocal about doing this, and they sometimes do it in large numbers (e.g. over the Gaza War this cycle). So perhaps Harris can make it a short night. I sort of doubt it though.

Today in Trumpenfreude :mask:

Trump is up 65% to 35% in the betting markets (which have a solid track record) and ahead in swing state polling. If he outperforms his polling like he did in the last elections he will win all the swing states and it's even conceivable he could win the popular vote (hell, it's within the margin of error for some polls). — Count Timothy von Icarus

:rofl:

Consider this recent article on how easily "betting markets" are manipulated ...
https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-political-prediction-markets

@Baden @Mikie @Benkei

Addendum to
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/940625



>>> Roevember 5 :victory: