I don't think Trump will win. — Manuel

People seems to forget that everyone said the same in 2016.

That is correct. And he could win. It's merely anecdotal and vibes based, which is as good as useless.

But - we are here to talk. EDIT: I think the similarities between Clinton's situation and Harris situation are an exaggeration.

Again, we will see in a few hours.

I think the similarities between Clinton's situation and Harris is quite different. — Manuel

That sentence doesn't really make sense but I still understand what you're saying; for one, people actually like Harris.

Yes. Very poor sentence, I meant to say, I don't think there are many similarities between Clinton and Harris' situation. The only surprise was turnout for Trump in states assumed to be blue, that went for him.

This time, there is no such complacency in the "blue wall" states. Furthermore, I think that pollsters may for once be over-estimating Trump.

Finally - Selzer's poll aside - it's been a brutal week for Trump.

I saw this cartoon this morning:



Just before 5PM, Trump wrote on Truth Social:

"A lot of talk about massive CHEATING in Philadelphia. Law Enforcement coming!!!"

Here we go again...

Newsweek just posted this analysis of an exit poll NBC is doing:

Voters in this election were overwhelmingly concerned about the condition of democracy and the economy as they cast ballots. Americans put democracy first, with 35% stating it was the most important factor in selecting how to vote for president, followed by the economy at 31%, an NBC News exit poll revealed. Abortion (14%) and immigration (11%) were the second most important issues for voters, with only 4% naming foreign policy.

This sounds hopeful for Harris supporters.

It’s amazing that when listening to Trump voters who are actually trying to make a rational case for their vote, most of them vote because of the economy. They blame Biden and Kamala for the increased prices. No one seems to understand why inflation spiked, why gas prices spiked and prices went up and no one seems to understand that Biden helped mitigate the effects of inflation and that the central bank is acting independently from the government to adjust the economy.

:shade:

:up: :up: :up: :up:

I really wonder on what people base their predictions, including myself actually. To me there is no shadow of a doubt that Trump will win. There are authoritarian tendencies rising in the world and the economy is hurting many people. Those two tendencies lead me to think Trump will win and there is a high turn out among republicans... Of course, the polls are even and I am not even American so what do I know. Still, not a shadow of a doubt... My feeling must be based on instinct, a hunch, some sort of worldview perhaps, but cannot be fully rational. So, my question to you, on what information / knowledge / feelings do you base your confidence that either Trump or Harris will win?

I agree, I don't understand how so many people are calling Harris a winner at this stage. There's nothing that really points towards it. Remember that there's a lot of Trump voters who don't want to be open about it.

And usually, authoritarian people gain power when the world is in turmoil. People are gullible and believe that someone will come in and just "fix things" without any negative consequences.

So at the moment I think people need to come back down to earth and don't get the hopes up too much.

Very interesting early exit polls showing what's most important to voters...

You are right, he may well be the winner. For sure.

But beyond a shadow of a doubt, in political philosophy?

That's more than we can know.

Instincts are another matter.

I am the first to admit that the feeling is not entirely rational, also not philosophical... So I wonder, I have that feeling based on gut instinct, but have we all? Or is there something I have maybe missed that others do see? The meta question here might be philosophical or psychological, on what do we base our predictions of future events?

I am derailing actually, just wanting to say that, no, my feeling is not rational. It is very firm though :smile:

I really wonder on what people base their predictions ... — Tobias

:wink: Follow me down these rabbit holes to Wonderland, my friend ..

https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/944276

Women. losing rights by changes in law. The U.S. is suddenly the new Tehran.

Welppp. Heh, seems Tobias instincts are very, very good.

So Trump is gonna win, as I expected. What a stupid country. :lol:

This is the NYT election predictor based on the current info. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html#

It shows 78% chance Trump wins.

Not going to call it for Trump until Harris loses one of MI, WI, or PA.

That is the prudent thing to do.

But it does not look good in most of those states.

You are technically correct.

Also, I am a total and complete clown. Never take my US political predictions seriously. smh

Trump Wins!

Since you weren't going to call it, I got to do it.

Data looks bad for Harris for sure. She's even winning less women than Biden... Dems never gonna learn.

It’s over. Stop kidding yourselves.

The only question is control of the house. But that’s not looking great either. So looks like complete control of the federal government for two years — and the judiciary for 40 or 50 years.

More extreme climate disasters are also now locked in. Enjoy.

Who'd have thunk Trump's election theft routine was a successful reelection strategy? The man thinks outside the box.

I think he'll call it soon .

There are some hints as to why Harris likely lost.

But I don't understand why people think Trump does anything for them.

I don't know what to say, frankly.

Wow!

But I don't understand why people think Trump does anything for them. — Manuel

The average American doesn't want to be ruled by a woman. I never expected their sexism to be that severe.