I think Trump might come to the aid of the British, but not the EU. Trump sees the EU as weak and unworthy of respect. — frank

The real fight is about influence. Russian tanks won't be physically occupying West European Capitals. (Theoretically they could go "as peacekeepers" or something hilarious like that to the Baltic States, but even that is unprobable as it might be so that NATO wouldn't chicken out). But Russians can reach their objectives of breaking the Atlantic tie and to severely weaken NATO. That is the real goal of Russia here.

And they can succeed because if Trump really sees that the biggest enemy is the deepstate in the US, that "makes forever wars" and Putin says that he is now fighting the US. Aren't then the objectives totally in line here with the same objectives?

In my view, the populist idea is simply learning the wrong lessons from past conflicts: that sometimes it actually is worth wile to intervene even if Smedley Butler's old ideas are sometimes true, when the war goals are bizarre and a simple reaction to the people's demand for revenge.

But Russians can reach their objectives of breaking the Atlantic tie and to severely weaken NATO. That is the real goal of Russia here. — ssu

I guess Russia-EU relations will return to normal now that Trump is taking office. Gas and oil will begin to flow again? The US will lose whatever influence it ever had over Europe. Europeans hate America anyway, so that's probably a good thing for everyone.

And they can succeed because if Trump really sees that the biggest enemy is the deepstate in the US, that "makes forever wars" and Putin says that he is now fighting the US. Aren't then the objectives totally in line here with the same objectives? — ssu

Trump's attack on the "deep state" is just about securing his control over the government. He doesn't share the ideological sentiments of his supporters. Putin's fight against the US is over, I think. Trump and Putin are pals.

In my view, the populist idea is simply learning the wrong lessons from past conflicts: that sometimes it actually is worth wile to intervene even if Smedley Butler's old ideas are sometimes true, when the war goals are bizarre and a simple reaction to the people's demand for revenge. — ssu

I think we're entering a new global era. The US will continue to shrink off of the world stage. China will continue to grow and learn. All eyes will turn eastward.

Yes, I think we Europeans might be genuinely worried about Trump leaving NATO - much like how a fat private fears PT. Yet, PT is the only way to whip said private back into shape. — Tzeentch

Or then just leave the service. Let somebody else do the job that is better capable. Just go to your job at McDonalds or the supermarket. They have no problem of their employees being fat and the PT done on breaks (if there's any PT) are quite easy and meant for everyone.

Have all Europe accept Finlandization and Russia will be no problem.

Now would be the best time, since there is no concrete threat to Europe yet. — Tzeentch

Yes, there's just one hot war in Europe, if you mean that by "no concrete threat". Because the Russian hybrid attacks (last few days ago) and the bellicose rhetoric of Russia sure feels like some kind of a threat.

About NATO being the US' strongest alliance I am not so sure, though. — Tzeentch

You mean there's a stronger alliance around? Russia and North Korea are an alliance, but when it comes to let's say Iran, It doesn't feel like China and North Korea or Russia are allies in the manner of attack on one is an attack on all. China, even if supporting Russia, has officially stayed neutral in the Ukrainian conflict and hasn't liked the nuclear sabre rattling of Russia.

Personally, I think Europe has dropped down on Uncle Sam's priority list, in favor of the Five-Eyes Alliance, Japan and South-Korea. These countries have a far clearer overlap with US strategic goals and challenges. — Tzeentch

Many Americans are what I class as the "Pivot people". America has to Pivot! Well, perhaps not from defending Judeo-Christian heritage in the Middle East, but still, Europe! Bye bye Europe.

But let's just think of how "clear" these goals and challenges are:

- First, there's nothing like the NATO in the Far East. SEATO failed, the countries didn't see eye to eye and the US simply gave up. These countries do train to operate jointly at the level as NATO countries do. They usually hold exercises occasionaly with the US, but not with each other. What is the American solution? AUKUS. Which actually isn't anything new at all as the countries have already defense pacts with each other. How well South-Korea and Japan are doing together? Not so good as Germany and France.

- Which of these Far Eastern allies have the capabilities of the UK or France? None, even if Japan has a big navy. It's one thing to prepare for domestic security and defending in one's own territory, another thing to train for out of the area operations. NATO can do that, Far Asian allies of the US aren't capable of that.

- Which of these Far Eastern countries are rearming to meet the Chinese threat? Nothing like the rearmament in Europe is happening in the Far East, except China.

Hence the real question is, how many would be willing to fight alongside the US if Taiwan would be invaded? Totally different from the question of how many NATO countries would fight if Poland was attacked. Especially when the US policy is "Strategic Ambiguity".

Hence if the US intervenes in a Chinese retaking of Taiwan, likely the American President will scream for the NATO losers to join in.

I guess Russia-EU relations will return to normal now that Trump is taking office. Gas and oil will begin to flow again? The US will lose whatever influence it ever had over Europe. Europeans hate America anyway, so that's probably a good thing for everyone. — frank

No, they won't and no, it's not a good thing for everyone. Democratic values like a justice state are worth defending. And so are things like the UN Charter. If we abandon those ideals of Enlightenment that have given us the present, it won't be better. First of all, Russia will not stop. Finlandization isn't nice. Russia is not a country that will say "Fine, we got what we wanted and now we'll leave you alone." Nope, once they have power, they will then start to meddle in our own domestic politics. The government has then to go after people that have made critique of Russia and Putin and supported the "Nazis" of Ukraine. That's the next step in "Finlandization" if Russia wins. It's an Empire, who just loves to be important.

Yet only a total failure will launch "Finlandization of Europe". But that would mean that Trump and his crew really turn out to be surrender monkeys and force the Ukrainians to sign a surrender deal. Let's be honest: Trump gave the Taleban the key to military victory with the Doha Peace deal, so there is the fear of that. When Trump has declared that he would end the war in 24 hours, then perhaps there's the wanting for a quick peace arrangement. And it's easy to choose just which party is more vulnerable at pressure. European states are looking at who would take the leading role, if a country like Poland would lead a "coalition of the willing" to support Ukraine. But let's remember that this is still the lame duck period of Biden now.

Trump's attack on the "deep state" is just about securing his control over the government. He doesn't share the ideological sentiments of his supporters. Putin's fight against the US is over, I think. Trump and Putin are pals. — frank

For the populist/conspiracy theorist, it's not about ending "deep state" and strengthening the democratic institutions, it's basically having their control over the deep state, because they are the good guys. Would Trump start eradicating the Patriot Act? Of course not! When he's in charge, those kind of acts are just good. And I fear that many Trump followers think this way too.

I think we're entering a new global era. The US will continue to shrink off of the world stage. China will continue to grow and learn. All eyes will turn eastward. — frank

In my view, the likely outcome is that the US will continue to shrink off (voluntarily, actually) and NOTHING will replace it. China isn't going to replace the US. It has only a few allies and then trade ties. We won't start to learn Chinese, English will stay as the universal language for at least a Century, if not two. China doesn't have that ideological ambition that drove the West to conquer the World. They are too satisfied about themselves. Besides, the country faces large problems with it's population growth and likely is too confident about centally controlled economy it has.

It's not going a collapse like during the Bronze Age or something, it likely is a withering away and simply more actors on the global stage, just like more countries have launched satellites into space, not just the two Superpowers as in the 1960's. For example Hungary is sending (few hundred) troops to Chad, not as part of some international mission, but as a bilateral agreement with the Chadian government. Like Russian Africa Corps in the Sahel. I guess that Orban has been bitten by the Imperialism bug.

Russian Africa Corps (ex Wagner) African fighter. Likely in the Sahel region.


When the US loses war in this way, it does have an effect on the US. I've always said that then we just have to enjoy the decadence. Not a bad time to live, actually.

Yes, there's just one hot war in Europe, if you mean that by "no concrete threat". Because the Russian hybrid attacks (last few days ago) and the bellicose rhetoric of Russia sure feels like some kind of a threat. — ssu

What I meant is that Russia is currently occupied in Ukraine and won't conceivably threaten to invade NATO for the foreseeable future.

In 20 years that situation might be different, and at that point the US pivot to Asia will have proceeded even further.

Many Americans are what I class as the "Pivot people". America has to Pivot! Well, perhaps not from defending Judeo-Christian heritage in the Middle East, but still, Europe! Bye bye Europe.

But let's just think of how "clear" these goals and challenges are:

- First, there's nothing like the NATO in the Far East. SEATO failed, the countries didn't see eye to eye and the US simply gave up. These countries do train to operate jointly at the level as NATO countries do. They usually hold exercises occasionaly with the US, but not with each other. What is the American solution? AUKUS. Which actually isn't anything new at all as the countries have already defense pacts with each other. How well South-Korea and Japan are doing together? Not so good as Germany and France.

- Which of these Far Eastern allies have the capabilities of the UK or France? None, even if Japan has a big navy. It's one thing to prepare for domestic security and defending in one's own territory, another thing to train for out of the area operations. NATO can do that, Far Asian allies of the US aren't capable of that.

- Which of these Far Eastern countries are rearming to meet the Chinese threat? Nothing like the rearmament in Europe is happening in the Far East, except China.

Hence the real question is, how many would be willing to fight alongside the US if Taiwan would be invaded? Totally different from the question of how many NATO countries would fight if Poland was attacked. Especially when the US policy is "Strategic Ambiguity".

Hence if the US intervenes in a Chinese retaking of Taiwan, likely the American President will scream for the NATO losers to join in. — ssu

The principal difference is that China is a peer competitor and Russia is not.

War in the Pacific is very easily imaginable, whereas war between Europe and Russia is not logical at all.

If a peace is reached in Ukraine, relations will probably gravitate back to the pre-2008 status quo.

East-Asia however is critically imbalanced, with the US sphere of influence smushed up against China in an attempt to contain it, and to dangle a sword of Damocles over its maritime trade and with it its entire economy.

That's simply a situation the Chinese will not accept going into the future.

The only question is how long before the Chinese start throwing their weight around, and indications are that it may still take some time before the Chinese start taking military action. The political and economic war is already well underway, though.

Americans can (correctly) argue that they haven't been defeated on the battlefield in fixed battle. But the truth is that they have lost wars, there is no credible denial about this. That Afghanistan is an Islamic Emirate today, just shows how the Global War on Terror was lost. Just like the fact that there is no South Vietnam anymore.

I think America underestimated the tactical advantages of their enemy fighting on home turf, with all-or-nothing mentality, and with gorilla-terror tactics; and, as you mentioned, the perception from the US public also plays a huge role.

the Americans left their past ally on it's own because of the unpopularity of the war (perceived or real), with the result that Afghanistan collapsed even quicker than South Vietnam

Not to mention, Biden left billions of dollars of military-grade resources in Afghanistan for the Taliban :roll: . It can’t get anymore embarrassing for the US than that.

The war in Ukraine is talked as a "forever war" that ought to be quickly halted. Marco Rubio, the incoming secretary of state, sees the war as stalemate that has to be ended and we all know Trump's campaign promise to end the war immediately

I think the US people generally don’t want to spend billions of taxpayers dollars on foreign wars when they have so many problems at home that could be fixed with that money. I do not support sending any aid to Israel nor Ukraine: we need to fix our country first.

For Trump to say that he's in good relation with both Zelensky and Putin is very difficult to understand.

Trump says he is in good standing with everyone—he likes to embellish.

Yet when people have the wrongful idea that the conflict is a forever war (that happened because of NATO enlargement) and thus has to be ended with US withdrawal,

Perhaps I am misunderstanding, but the US doesn’t actually have any military presence in Ukraine: all we have been doing is funding them. Let them fund their own battles—they aren’t a part of NATO.

The inability for Americans to see how this weakens their own alliance is quite telling.

The US doesn’t have a formal alliance with Ukraine. I would completely agree with you if they were a part of NATO. If Russia hits a NATO country, then they are going to get their shit rocked. Russia can’t even take over Ukraine: imagine what would happen if the US got truly involved.

Always a pleasure to get your insights, thanks. BTW, Wall St is not liking the fact that Biden told Ukraine to strike inside Russia. Stocks are tumbling.

I think America underestimated the tactical advantages of their enemy fighting on home turf, with all-or-nothing mentality, and with gorilla-terror tactics; and, as you mentioned, the perception from the US public also plays a huge role. — Bob Ross

To put it simply: Only American soldiers sent to a war on another continent see and feel the war. Many in civilian life in Continental US don't even know about the conflict. In the country the war is fought, usually nobody can distance themselves from the war. For these people, the conflict can surely be marketed as an existential struggle. In the US, the Foreign Policy establishment has to try to conflate everything to be an "existential struggle", which makes Americans very, very skeptical. So skeptical that they can indeed believe that all wars are just forever wars concocted by the Deep state for war profiteering of the military industrial complex.

Not to mention, Biden left billions of dollars of military-grade resources in Afghanistan for the Taliban :roll: It can’t get anymore embarrassing for the US than that. — Bob Ross

It was a double whammy. Trump made a lousy peace deal, Biden went along with it and made it even worse. I feel for the Afghan war vets: they were really betrayed.

I think the US people generally don’t want to spend billions of taxpayers dollars on foreign wars when they have so many problems at home that could be fixed with that money. I do not support sending any aid to Israel nor Ukraine: we need to fix our country first. — Bob Ross

Some thoughts: If military spending is cut, the money simply isn't put somewhere else. Likely you simply take less debt. For example the Global War on Terror was financed basically by taking more debt. You didn't see large tax increases then. Secondly, you are already paying at these interest rates (which are low) more in debt service than in defense spending. The historian Niall Ferguson has said once this happens, no country in the entire span of human history has continued to be the Great Power it was before.

This year, the debt service is higher than defense spending. Something just few years earlier was thought to happen in 2033.


And notice actually from the Soviet example: if you stop defense spending when defense has created a lot of jobs, then the economy goes south. Or in the case of the Soviet Union, simply collapses.

Perhaps I am misunderstanding, but the US doesn’t actually have any military presence in Ukraine: all we have been doing is funding them. Let them fund their own battles—they aren’t a part of NATO. - The US doesn’t have a formal alliance with Ukraine. I would completely agree with you if they were a part of NATO. If Russia hits a NATO country, then they are going to get their shit rocked. — Bob Ross

Was South Vietnam a treaty ally of the US?
Nope. (Actually, SEATO gave protection to South Vietnam, but the country wasn't a treaty member)
Was Kuwait a treaty ally of the US?
Nope.
Was the Republic of Afghanistan a treaty ally of the US?
Nope.
Is Israel a treaty ally of the US?
Nope! (It's an one way street with Israel. The agreements: Mutual Defense Assistance Agreement (1952); a General Security of Information Agreement (1982); a Mutual Logistics Support Agreement (1991); and a Status of Forces Agreement (1994), all make it so that Israel doesn't have to lift a finger to help the US, but the US will surely help Israel when it is in trouble, or redrawing it's borders. Because thanks to AIPAC and the Evangelists... defending that Judeo-Christian heritage is enough!

Yes, unlike Putin is saying now, the US isn't fighting in Ukraine. It's just supporting the Ukrainians. Yet that there isn't that alliance with Ukraine doesn't make this assistance unimportant.

Just think what happens if the US stops the aid and declares: tough luck, too bad! Well, this will have many effects. Russia has just shown that it can do whatever it wants and if the US opposes it, the US will just bitch for a while and then loose interest and thus it can be defeated.

This will make a crack on NATO, which even if all it's cacophony with so many sovereign states in the alliance, has been on Ukraine quite firm and together. (Even if you have Hungary and Turkey). Everyone told that they were supporting Ukraine, but in the end... no.

Well, the little countries that are replaceable (like mine) will get the memo. Sure, they might act is nothing serious has happened... but the know in their heart just how much are the guarantees actually worth.

Don't think that Europeans aren't taking Trump seriously. They genuinely believe that Trump and his gang could take the US out of NATO. It's a genuine possibility that could happen

Legislation was put in place so that it would require a 2/3rds vote of the Senate to leave, and that's frankly not going to happen. He has some options for trying to get around that, but it wouldn't be that easy, and he would need elements on his side who aren't likely to go along easily.

He's much more likely to simply make America a much poorer partner in the alliance for the duration of his term rather than expend the political capital to leave. Plus, he isn't exactly great at follow through.

About NATO being the US' strongest alliance I am not so sure, though. It certainly is big and has potential, but Europe is currently without teeth. It is also situated on the other side of the globe from where the next real 'Cold War' is going to take place (the Pacific).

:up:

Right, and those allies have also been more on board with ratcheting up their own defense spending. The benefits vis-á-vis technology transfer have also tended to be better, e.g. Japanese technology being a key part of some of the cutting edge (back the ) features of the F-22. Partnerships with Europe are often rather duplicative, driving up costs to keep European defense industries going.

Certainly, European states have an interest in keeping their defense industries afloat. The US does the same sort of thing, creating its own light tank for the Pacific instead of buying the, by all accounts stellar, new Japanese option (which is of course overpriced, but it's overpriced because they aren't making many).

Also, these states, like Israel, are putting a premium on missile defense (given China has gone hard on the "missile spam" doctrine and missiles are Iran's main way to directly attack Israel) and you get a lot of synergy projects there. Europe certainly invests in these, but it's not likely to be the same sort of top priority given Russia's demonstrated ability to make missiles and their quality. Countermeasures against nuclear delivery systems are nice to have, but really only in China and the US' price range, and even if the US backs way out of Europe it's not like it's not going to want to stop housing its interception umbrella there because you need them along the periphery to have multiple methods of shooting down an ICBM, and you can't keep the fleet elements in the right places at all times.