That said, this would a massive story if true and I would imagine there would be a risk of unrestrained anger, panic and scapegoating. Not sure there would be a good or entirely safe way to reveal this. — Tom Storm

But you see, this is how the "disclosure" conspiracy works. For reasons like the ones you list, these conspiracy theorists claim that unlike previous years, starting last year with the congressional hearing, and this new one, and the drones, and the increased UAP sightings and activity, the US government is trying to slowly get the public used to this secret and that it is going to be fully disclosed soon, maybe by someone like Trump. Again, this has the whiff of old school hopes for End of Times prophecies. It's going to come any day now.. It's getting closer and closer... You watch...

Now, some in this group believe that the aliens (or "non-human intelligence) are actually trying to make themselves known more and more, and the government cannot prevent it, so is trying to either obfuscate it either with their own drones or by denying anything is going on, or slowly getting people used to the idea of weird phenomena in the sky that is really NHI. Again, I'm just conveying some current views to show how creative it can get.

Of course the situation is probably something more like this:
- There is just generally more drone activity globally because more people are flying drones. People think this is a sign of something more.
- People are paying attention to the skies more because of media about UAP, and this combined with more drones means people are now just noticing the new "norm" of increased drone activity
- There may be an increase in certain areas around military installations because Ockham's Razor- military are testing their large drones! This is the current state and future of warfare.
-The government does act shady around military technology but that is obvious because it's generally the MO of the military to keep things confidential in general

There is no evidence because the conspiracy covers everything up.
Therefore not believing the conspiracy is compliant with the conspiracy.
If the committee cannot get to any real evidence, it is either because the committee is being duped by the conspiracy, or because the committee is part of the cover up.
There can never be a resolution, because the absence of evidence is evidence of the conspiracy. — unenlightened

Yep, this seems to be how this works. As I stated above:
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/954602

The intelligence industry is the natural home of the paranoid, just as philosophy is the home of the gullible. And yes there is an overlap. And just because I'm paranoid, that doesn't mean there's no conspiracy; on the contrary, the paranoid are always conspiring, so nothing to see here.

The question I have for the aliens, not knowing if they are benevolent or malevolent, is why they are cooperating with opposed and secretive governments to hide their presence from folks that would be willing to cooperate with anyone who wasn't the current government of whichever country? It makes them look weak; and surely they are not weak? — unenlightened

Right? I can only speculate, but some answers from the NHI community would be:
1) They prefer to work with the heads of government or have an agreement with them.
2) There is no live "they". Rather, we only have evidence of NHI from crafts and/or dead alien bodies. There's never been actual communication. However, somehow they agreed to not disclose themselves until they deemed humans are ready for it?

My guess is it would have to be the fringe of the fringe to even entertain 1. But 2 probably represents the standard view.

My guess is it would have to be the fringe of the fringe to even entertain 1. But 2 probably represents the standard view. — schopenhauer1

Well, that 2 to be "the standard view" is.... on the limits on what we can say to be a standard view.

But let's assume that 2 is correct and further let's assume Trump (and who else than that narcissist) makes option 2 totally public, starting from apologizing to the people of Roswell. If that happens, what's the end result?

1) One global media frenzy. Think about a time to put on an Alien costume and put it on Youtube as the first encounter!

2) Likely other countries, perhaps even the Catholic Church, will come forward with "new that, old stuff" comments. Perhaps the Pope says something about the greatness of God etc.

3) The US will have a boondoggle of Congressional hearings about a secret program that in the end will look a complete farce. How could this happen? Where was Congressional oversight?

Likely we won't see a fleet of UFO's hovering around the UN Building to make the official contact with the official global authority, UN's Office for Outer Space Affairs (Unoosa), for formalizing the already seems to be so ordinary connections to Earth's governments. I think they would likely wait and see.

4) Trumpian Deep State theories would become mainstream. Politics would be even more absurd.

5) After a few months, it would be as old news as us living through a dangerous pandemic that killed millions where people were confined to stay at home.

Loved to see history of the encounters then...

1) One global media frenzy. — ssu

It would certainly be a frenzy. I think there would be more than that. There would be an economic crisis, the stock market might crash, people would start re-evaluating their place in the universe as beings with greater intelligence or extraordinary powers would put us in a status as not "alone". It would be akin to something religious perhaps.

2) Likely other countries, perhaps even the Catholic Church, will come forward with "new that, old stuff" comments. Perhaps the Pope says something about the greatness of God etc. — ssu

Certainly religions would try to accommodate this and even speak of it in terms of religious phenomena perhaps.

3) The US will have a boondoggle of Congressional hearings about a secret program that in the end will look a complete farce. How could this happen? Where was Congressional oversight? — ssu

This certainly, but this would be the least hectic thing. I don't think you would have anything else being discussed for a solid year.

Likely we won't see a fleet of UFO's hovering around the UN Building to make the official contact with the official global authority, UN's Office for Outer Space Affairs (Unoosa), for formalizing the already seems to be so ordinary connections to Earth's governments. I think they would likely wait and see. — ssu

It depends on the nature of what was "disclosed". I would say it would simply be that we know of alien technology, and that they fly around, so close encounters of the 1st and 2nd kind, but not really 3rd kind. That is to say, there are some form of anomalous life forms that seem to have intelligence that we cannot account for and seem to be watching us, but no communication is established or understanding yet of what they are or what they are doing.

I'm late to this conversation, but my take is:

The fact that the government is willing to have these public hearings tells me that the government doesn't actually have a whole lot to hide. If they had something to hide, they'd be trying much harder to hide it.

Then again, maybe that's exactly what the government wants me to think...

The fact that the government is willing to have these public hearings tells me that the government doesn't actually have a whole lot to hide. If they had something to hide, they'd be trying much harder to hide it.

Then again, maybe that's exactly what the government wants me to think... — flannel jesus

The disclosure people would say that it is a slow drip so they get ahead of it before the big reveal :D.

The probability of life emerging elsewhere in the universe where there are trillions of solar systems is greater than 0 so there’s probably life out there too.

The issue is that of technological advancement and capability of traveling to other worlds and overcoming the light speed barrier to do so. In this regard we have no conclusive proof or evidence that this has happened but are left with conspiracy theories that they have in fact visited earth but are covered up by government. The question is why?

One of the reasons it could have been covered up is that we’re a war mongering species so any technological advantage we may develop because of this tech would be best kept under wraps in order to maintain such an advantage.

Personally I do not believe that governments have had any contact or exchange with alien civilisations by the mere fact that had we done so we’d be more enlightened and collaborative as a species instead of a war mongering one.

Also if aliens capable of traversing interstellar distances would most likely come in peace and would want to instantiate or initiate contact with us, and the fact that this hasn’t happened is not due to some conspiracy but rather that they haven’t tried to make contact with us or just hasn’t happened.

The issue is that of technological advancement and capability of traveling to other worlds and overcoming the light speed barrier to do so. In this regard we have no conclusive proof or evidence that this has happened but are left with conspiracy theories that they have in fact visited earth but are covered up by government. The question is why?

One of the reasons it could have been covered up is that we’re a war mongering species so any technological advantage we may develop because of this tech would be best kept under wraps in order to maintain such an advantage. — kindred

I don't know but that might be what they might say. A "believer" might say that the government does not want a panic and perhaps are worried about the public's unpredictable reaction to such news.

Some of the ideas floating right now (no pun intended), is that the "real" UAP are these "orbs" that some people see, and the drones are actually there to investigate the orbs.

Perhaps it's institutional inertia. They hid it for so long, that to reveal it would be also to reveal the government hid their knowledge, and distrust would be even greater so they don't want to increase that.

Again, I am just giving speculations based on fringe theories.

I think you give governments more credit than they are due when it comes to their ability to cover their tracks…after all there would be leaks somewhere down the line.

It would be cool if aliens have or had visited us but I just don’t believe it has happened. Plus with everyone having a camera at their fingertips these days we would have evidence for it but we hardly have any credible ones.

I think you give governments more credit than they are due when it comes to their ability to cover their tracks…after all there would be leaks somewhere down the line. — kindred

I'm more on the skeptic side until provided any sufficient evidence from reliable sources. When I propose these fringe theories, I am doing it for the sake of argument.

It would be cool if aliens have or had visited us but I just don’t believe it has happened. Plus with everyone having a camera at their fingertips these days we would have evidence for it but we hardly have any credible ones. — kindred

The UFO theorists might say that many people have photographed sightings and many pilots have reported it to FAA and AARO:
https://www.aaro.mil/
https://www.aaro.mil/UAP-Cases/Official-UAP-Imagery/

And of course ex-intelligence officials like Luis Elizando and investigative journalists like Michael Shellenberger who claim that there are other programs, and there is more evidence that is kept hidden such as high resolution pictures and videos etc.

It would certainly be a frenzy. I think there would be more than that. There would be an economic crisis, the stock market might crash, people would start re-evaluating their place in the universe as beings with greater intelligence or extraordinary powers would put us in a status as not "alone". It would be akin to something religious perhaps. — schopenhauer1

Nah.

Something religious, something philosophical.

But then life would go along. Just as it has to. You have to go to work, pay the bills, walk the dog. And so on...

I would say it would simply be that we know of alien technology — schopenhauer1

But haven't had the ability to understand it. Otherwise it would be already our technology. And this is the real harm that has been done with the secrecy, assuming there would be the technology. It's been in the hands of some specifically picked scientist who have sworn to secrecy. And that's the worst that can happen with tech.

Just think how little the Soviet Space program helped ordinary Soviet technology compared to how NASA's achievements and programs have spurred useful technology for the US household. Tech held secret won't help anybody. And tech that we don't understand and know will help even less when it's kept secret.

Make a global effort to understand the technology... would be also likely what advanced space travelling species would see as something positive from us.

But then life would go along. Just as it has to. You have to go to work, pay the bills, walk the dog. And so on... — ssu

Yeah for sure, existential dread and mundanity doesn't go away :wink:. Like any new revelation, it would be at first shocking, and then we would just learn that it is part of the way things are, and people would go about their daily lives. However, I think it would become part of regular briefings and updates, etc.. if it were actually true that is.

But haven't had the ability to understand it. Otherwise it would be already our technology. And this is the real harm that has been done with the secrecy, assuming there would be the technology. It's been in the hands of some specifically picked scientist who have sworn to secrecy. And that's the worst that can happen with tech. — ssu

Funnily enough, bureaucratic red tape and secrecy would actually hamper more advancement. Assuming this exists (big if), it would be in the highest levels of confidentiality. That being said, intelligence officers at the highest levels would probably make sure that each department that studied these artifacts of technology would be separated as much as possible from each other on a "need to know" basis. Thus, if they need consulting from a materials engineer they will only be revealed aspects dealing with that. If they need propulsion experts, they only deal with mechanical engineers and physicists that deal with those fields. They would never allow any one scientist/expert/officer to know the full details. Only a very few would have the big picture. Thus, being that collaboration might be at a minimum, progress might be slower than it would take if there was a larger project akin to a Manhattan Project. Then again, this is all just fun speculation on my part. I'm just giving possible scenarios.

Just think how little the Soviet Space program helped ordinary Soviet technology compared to how NASA's achievements and programs have spurred useful technology for the US household. Tech held secret won't help anybody. And tech that we don't understand and know will help even less when it's kept secret.

Make a global effort to understand the technology... would be also likely what advanced space travelling species would see as something positive from us. — ssu

Well, I would tend to agree, and thus, if it was secret, I can imagine many efforts to reengineer any technology or to study it in the greatest detail might be encumbered without more people looking at it. However, if you think about it, the technology might be treated like military technology and thus, if there is a way to have an advantage over other countries, the confidential nature becomes paramount. However, I find the notion funny the NHI space craft are making themselves known more and more to the point where it forces the government's hand.

I agree with you both but iff the "Roswell, NM '47 crash & Area 51" 1950s era flying saucer (+ alien abductions) myth happens to be true. IMHO, the "UFO scare" was a mass psy-op product of 'Cold War nuclear war anxiety and espionage paranoia' to distract the public from – then officially cover for – various covert military and surveillance test aircraft (like today's drones, etc) or LEO sats. Contra the prevailing anthropo/geo-centricity, I'm skeptical that Earth is exo-scientifically worthy of any interstellar traveling ETIs survellance / contact efforts (e.g. "UFOs"):

(2022) Convergence of our species with aliens ...
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/774893

(2022) UFOs ...
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/814458

↪ssu ↪schopenhauer1 I agree with you both but iff the "Roswell, NM '47 crash & Area 51" 1950s era flying saucer (+ alien abductions) myth happens to be true. — 180 Proof

And we should note the importance there of that iff.

IMHO, the "UFO scare" was a mass psy-op product of 'Cold War nuclear war anxiety and espionage paranoia' to distract the public from – then officially cover for – various covert military and surveillance test aircraft (like today's drones, etc) or LEO sats. — 180 Proof

And we shouldn't forget the psychological / social aspect of UFOs.

Modern science has brought us so much information, that we do not believe anymore in the existence of goblins and trolls or fairies as mythical creatures that lived in the forest. The forest isn't a place where there are these magical creatures. Well, with aliens outside of our planet there is this great unknown, which we cannot be sure about. Modern science is the first entity telling that it's totally possible, after now as it has shown by evidence that there are other planets in other star systems and there's many planets rather similar to us. It's a perfect place for our collective imagination to go.

Of course the secret projects themselves show just how difficult it is to hide anything flying. Even before the F-17 was made public, there were actually quite good models about it, and also publicized Soviet intel. For instance this Revell model of a "F-19" I think in 1988 was made so close, that the US government was a bit upset:



When you compare it to the actual 59 F-117 built, making it's first flight in 1977 and then with the service delivery in 1982, wasn't pure guessing, because the F-117 made it's public appearance only 1990:



The history of the "Skunk Work"-projects tell quite a lot what can be hidden and what kinds of things cannot be. Yet aviation history will tell us what were the actual projects and how far they got. As these are also "top secret", they give a good contrast to the UFO story. The great "iff", as @180 Proof said.

As a child I wasn't sure that goblins (fiends from hell) didn't exist. I feared that monsters were lurking in the unlit coal bin in the barn when it was my turn to fill up buckets of coal to bring to the house. Eventually, (around age 50--just joking) I stopped fearing monsters. However: our brains are prone to fears of neo-monsters in adulthood. As adults, we can suppress or dissolve these fears--most of the time. When we can't suppress or dissolve, we might start seeing monsters in the sky -- drones, flying saucers, human-abducting aliens, communists doing subversion, white supremacists plotting coups, (oh wait, that one might be true) the whole weird garbage heap.

Our irrational fears may be underscored by sensible fears. I fear the widespread use of drones for package delivery because they will be annoying, intrusive, and unavoidable. People have similar fears about infrastructure projects -- freeways, big airports, super-tall billionaire residential towers, etc. There is clearly a lot more sky traffic over New Jersey than there is over me, and I don't envy them.

There is also the power of suggestion. If actual alien abductions had been witnessed 10 times, but had never been mentioned to anyone at any time, rumors of these weird events would not have propagated.

I think the UFO/alien folks are looking for meaning beyond the mundane. It also gives a sort of hope- that something bigger than humans is out there and that their beliefs would be vindicated all along.

As others were saying, it also belies a mistrust in government, and actual psy-ops during the Cold War. Better for people to attribute things in the air to aliens than to new technology. Drones are just the newest version.

My guess is New Jersey is congested with air traffic because it's so close to so many population centers, airports, and military facilities. Combine all this and you have a fairly crowded skies. Has there been an uptick in drone usage since November? Probably. Some people were saying that people were testing them before Christmas and things like this.

I think Steven Greenstreet pretty much hit the nail that there is a group of UFO aficionados who essentially cross-reference each other. I don't think all of them are necessarily lying, but rather embellishing or falsely attributing unknowingly. That is to say, yes there might be really fast moving "tic tac" UAP, or even weird orbs, or other anomalous sightings, but not much more than the footage we have. And "crash retrievals" might just be weird materials being studied in a lab that are falsely attributed to crashed UAP. So it's actually a bit more nuanced than outright lies.

But would I want there to be some secret program this whole time that would be revealed to the public in a crazy disclosure? Sure, why not. I think like most people, such an astonishing revelation would be a nice diversion and keep us entertained for a long while.

That being said, the US government created more distrust for its own citizens when they had NSC spokesman Kirby and Homeland Security secretary Mayorkas say it's nothing to worry about, but we don't know what it is. That did sound suspicious, to be fair.

I think Steven Greenstreet pretty much hit the nail that there is a group of UFO aficionados who essentially cross-reference each other. I don't think all of them are necessarily lying, but rather embellishing or falsely attributing unknowingly. — schopenhauer1

I think this is the correct assessment. I followed Greenstreet fairly closely a few years ago when I was bored.

I think the UFO/alien folks are looking for meaning beyond the mundane. It also gives a sort of hope- that something bigger than humans is out there and that their beliefs would be vindicated all along. — schopenhauer1

Agree. There's a religious element to this wherein people see a kind of transcendence from everyday humanity, a way of re-enchanting the world via a kind of techno-spiritual movement. And I've noticed that once committed to this thinking, it is almost impossible to shake people, even with evidence. It becomes a faith-based system that is impervious to outsiders, who are either 'idiots' or part of the system's duplicity.

Agree. There's a religious element to this wherein people see a kind of transcendence from everyday humanity, a way of re-enchanting the world via a kind of techno-spiritual movement. — Tom Storm

If it's harmless, let them have it. Although philosophically, is there something morally relevant in being a few degrees divorced from reality, living in your own fanfiction? I think the theories are fun to read about if you do it from a purely skeptical standpoint. But some people think the disclosure will prove all the skeptics wrong. It'll happen soon by X date, with X person.

And I've noticed that once committed to this thinking, it is almost impossible to shake people, even with evidence. It becomes a faith-based system that is impervious to outsiders, who are either 'idiots' or part of the system's duplicity. — Tom Storm

I suppose people who have read/watched too much sci-fi would be suspectable to this. However, I can see why it would be harder to shake than other things. There are hearings on it from government officials, this gives it a "sheen" of legitimacy.

But some people think the disclosure will prove all the skeptics wrong. It'll happen soon by X date, with X person. — schopenhauer1

Yes, to me it has the same rhythms as the second coming. The alien rapture is nigh - we can read all the signs….

If it's harmless, let them have it. — schopenhauer1

If. I guess there’s the potential that such beliefs may lead to harmful practices, like those of cults and religions. For now it seems the the greatest harm is fleecing people at conferences and via merchandise.

I think the UFO/alien folks are looking for meaning beyond the mundane. — schopenhauer1

Yes, that's why I wrote

"UFOs" = angels & ghosts — 180 Proof

:up: