Thanks for that. That post is quite right. Nothing can undo the damage that has been done. Outside the US, it's a case of taking a deep breath and adjusting.

It will absolutely "work out" in the end, for better or worse. I don't know whether bad resolution will come about or not, or how bad "bad" might be. — BC

That's true. For me "work out" meant something like "resolve" without a world war and with some sort of rational world order.

It has already set in, and not just in the last few weeks. We have seen drift towards authoritarianism in various parts of our culture. — BC

Every country has a history and every history has events to be ashamed of. The relationship between authoritarianism and freedom is complicated and difficult. I think they go together - dark side and light side.

The Founders did not figure on a Legislative Branch no longer jealous of their power. — Paine

They hadn't come across the tactic of institutional capture. It scrambles all that natural responses to a coup. I believe that Musk and Thiel are from South Africa. Perhaps they learnt it there.

I am grateful that I am old and may die of natural causes before I am asked to make dreadful choices. On the other hand, I might not die quite quick enough. — BC

Same here. Not a thought that I'm proud of, though.

Can I please know from what position you're watching this film? It's not one i've seen. Definitely not a documentary. — AmadeusD

What are you talking about?

....Even if you refuse to accept the unapologetic pivot to a fascist Russian modeled mob kleptocracy, the US is fucked. For decades.

Then why don't the US citizens who don't want this... do something about it?

The Founders did not figure on a Legislative Branch no longer jealous of their power.
— Paine

They hadn't come across the tactic of institutional capture. It scrambles all that natural responses to a coup. I believe that Musk and Thiel are from South Africa. Perhaps they learnt it there. — Ludwig V

The specific mechanism of U.S. politics that causes so many Republicans to act so sheepishly is the Primary Process whereby eligible candidates for offices are selected. MAGA voters have been dominating that group for years. There are those who got through despite that dominance, but it is not like they have their own caucus to assemble and criticize the others in their tribe.

I recognize that changes in voting procedures can give a great advantage to a particular group. But it is interesting to me how people with so little connection with those they empower are the principal cause of the existing regime.

Then why don't the US citizens who don't want this... do something about it? — Christoffer

What day is this of the Trump administration? This is only week seven.

Democrats are still shell shocked from losing the election. Didn't electrify them much to have first senile Biden as the candidate before Kamala was rushed their without any primary election. Then they still don't have had enough crap as the trade war is only starting (as is the recession, possibly). Then the MAGA crowd is still quite vocal and hostile. The Washington circle is quite lame and just stunned.

There's not yet the enthusiasm and the feeling to oppose Trump. The MAGA crowd however, has all the time had the enthusiasm as Hillary Clinton called them the deplorables. And of course, first people laughed at Trump. This created the group cohesion among the Trump supporters and after Jan 6th, they see them as part of the revolution.

The "counterrevolutionaries" haven't yet emerged, but when things go worse from here, they might. You see, it's not just the savings, the evident policy of "making the poor pay and take their service, while having brazen corruption". It's the total disregard of the separation of powers, when you freeze assets and spending that by law have been already passed by an entity that has no legal position.

This makes it all a constitutional crisis. Something that easily could lead in the worst case to violence as just is just craving to show crush possible open opposition towards him perhaps with the insurrection act.

, another factor is that the non-MAGA'ers tend to be those that respect democracy (+ are less susceptible to conspiracy theories), and Trump did win the election after all.

What scares me is the effect of a probable and severe US downturn on the world economy generally. Europe already is stagnating, plus it now has the additional burden of compensating for Trump's treachery in Ukraine. Here in Australia things are humming along OK but we're a minnow in world economic terms, and if there's a big worldwide downturn it is bound to affect us. Almost every economist agrees that the tarrif policy is going to be a complete disaster. My son has three cafés which have been doing fine but it's a sector that's highly vulnerable to reductions in spending and he's flat out just staying afloat as it is. He's never really seen a real recession - we managed to avoid one in the GFC - but the possibilities are grim.

My comment can be translated into your question. What hte heck is being talked about there? Nonsense, at best.

another factor is that the non-MAGA'ers tend to be those that respect democracy (+ are less susceptible to conspiracy theories), and Trump did win the election after all. — jorndoe

And now I think it's time for a conspiracy theory, in my view. Europeans have to wake up and understand that they are alone. Or then they have to bow to the Kremlin, because it's Putin who is calling all the shots when it comes to what Trump does in Europe.

What scares me is the effect of a probable and severe US downturn on the world economy generally. Europe already is stagnating, plus it now has the additional burden of compensating for Trump's treachery in Ukraine. Here in Australia things are humming along OK but we're a minnow in world economic terms, and if there's a big worldwide downturn it is bound to affect us. — Wayfarer

What makes this worse is just listen now to Canadians. Listen really to the speech the leaving Trudeau gave.

You see it's one thing if you have a "normal" trade war about or industry or service. Then the usual discourse is that on this area the other one is "cheating" on some specific issue. And that's what trade policy is for. But everything on a 25% tariff? Everything? And it's not only that: another thing is offending people by talking about them becoming a 51st state and then starting a trade war because no other reason than you want foreigners to put their industries into the US. That is extremely offending and condescending. And now Canadians feel it's outright hostile.

And that's really bad, because they won't care about if the economy now goes south, because it's Trump. And Trump's going after their sovereignty. That kicks up Canadians totally differently.

When Trump comes to the European Union and gets us to a trade war, I think the outcome can be that the US really leaves NATO. Because nobody will say to Trump that it is a bad thing I fear. Someone like JD Vance and Musk are too far with the idea that "one has to shake up old liberal Europe".

My son has three cafés which have been doing fine but it's a sector that's highly vulnerable to reductions in spending and he's flat out just staying afloat as it is. He's never really seen a real recession - we managed to avoid one in the GFC - but the possibilities are grim. — Wayfarer

Well, what can we say, it's an experience. Basically a huge transfer of money from some people to others.

When I graduated from school, I could enjoy for a few months enjoying a strong economy, when you could as a young guy right from the Gymnasium (High School equivalent) pick the job you wanted and go there. Then I went to serve my conscription and the economy collapsed in a banking crisis. I assumed first, well, the recession will be over when I come back from the army. Not so, the economic depression lasted for about five years.... and never basically came back. Not like as then, when everybody was hiring.

A great deal of what Trump does is motivated by spite. It's unbelievable that the leader of such an important country is so consistently petty and spiteful.

:ok: :up:

Exactly. Just look at his official picture. It's just like his mugshot, actually. Not a happy man. Not now, coming back to the Presidency.



People were totally correct that this guy was waiting for four years just increasing his vindictiveness and grudges against everybody. Just look at his rant where he started to give the real reasons why he was so angry to Zelenskyi. On giving reasons why Russians broke cease-fires:

“They broke it with Biden, because Biden, they didn’t respect him. They didn’t respect Obama. They respect me,” Trump continued. “Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me.”

This above is the alarming part. He views as Putin having also to endure the "witch hunt". This idiot truly believes in Putin and thinks Putin is his friend. And then of course Hunter Biden's laptop scandal, which fell apart after Republicans’ star witness admitted that the story had been completely fabricated with help from top Russian officials. Zelenskyi then didn't do what Trump wanted, and Trump got impeached for the first time. So there's one personal reason for the grudge.

Then why don't the US citizens who don't want this... do something about it? — Christoffer

An entirely appropriate question.

Massive mobilization (spontaneous / organized) takes time, focus, and energy. Trump began his current maladministration only on 1/20/25--so about 45 days ago. His fast and furious demolition activities affect opponents the same way zebra stripes confuse lions: It's hard to lock on a target. It takes 10 times as much energy to resist the government as the government spends fucking us over.

"Elections have consequences!" Once in power, all sorts of advantages are acquired. This is true for Democrats and liberals as well as Republicans and reactionaries.

Trump is a hateful bastard surrounded by goons and morons and we can count on them making things progressively worse. We don't want "worse" but we are going to get it. We'd better not waste it. The opposition must capitalize on and fan the flames of discontent. The opposition must "get into every space" -- be it bars, union halls, churches, schools, neighborhood organizations, civic clubs, board rooms, congressional offices, the sidewalks surrounding the White House, the pentagon -- EVERYWHERE. Be polite as necessary, but not more so. Be as forceful as required, and not less so. Hammer the message home, again and again, about the very real damage Donald Trump et al are doing to the body politic and institutions of government.

Should the opposition take my sage advice, it won't produce results overnight. It needs to produce significant results by November 3, 2026 -- the next congressional election. And November 3, '26 is not the end game. Trump must not attempt to run for a third term and J. D. Vance must be tarred with the same brush as Trump. Maybe more tar and hotter. He's not as close to death as Donald.

There is, of course, no guarantee that anyone will take my sage advice. Perhaps the opposition will fold up, dig a hole, and bury itself in it. Perhaps Donald Trump will bring about full-fledged fascism. Bad things can and do happen to good people.

My comment can be translated into your question. What hte heck is being talked about there? Nonsense, at best. — AmadeusD

What is unclear about it?

Then why don't the US citizens who don't want this... do something about it? — Christoffer

Diffusion of responsibility. Everyone looks around at everyone else to see what they're doing, resulting in a gridlock where no-one does anything. I think author R.B. Cialdini describes the well-researched phenomenon as a case of communal stupidity, where our mechanism to use the knowledge and experience of others to make decisions locks up.

And just historically, it seems like a regime needs around 30% dedicated support to be able to grasp totalitarian powers. Around half the population will be too insecure or too shocked to act effectively at any given time, meaning that if you can mobilise a majority of the other 50%, you can seize power.

And which big tech uniting behind Trump and manipulating social media, it could actually require less support because social media would be an important tool to organise a resistance movement and spread information about it.

I'm honestly somewhat pessimistic about this. I have considered social media kind of a "suicide pact" technology for a while. Humans are not rational actors the vast majority of the time. Most of the stuff we do on any given day is directed by the "autopilot", a bunch of heuristics and response algorithms we acquired during our evolution. Many of these affect even conscious decisions without the people making the decision being aware of it.

By now, the workings of many of these mechanisms are decently well researched and are implemented in our online spaces to various degrees. This means that our "terminally online" populations are uniquely vulnerable to a concerted attack that either confuses them or convinces them to be complacent towards certain risks.

There is, of course, no guarantee that anyone will take my sage advice. Perhaps the opposition will fold up, dig a hole, and bury itself in it. Perhaps Donald Trump will bring about full-fledged fascism. Bad things can and do happen to good people. — BC

I bet 1 euro that it won't happen like that. The opposition to Elon Musk and Trump will rise. Perhaps Trump will then want to use the insurrection act, which will just draw more opposition like flowers and honey attracts bees. It will just give more vitalism to the cause. This is something that won't be limited to just angry town hall meetings.

The Trump recession is already here, it has started. His most stupid trade war will just reinforce the downturn. Trade wars before had some reasoning behind them, with Trump they don't. And Canada being said to be the 51st state isn't a laughing matter here, just like taking Greenland isn't either. It just shows the hubris of these ignorant Trump followers.

As I've said even before this all started, Elon Musk will be the most hated person in the US and around the World. And after him, it's going to be Trump. Yet this is absolutely devastating for Tesla. Tesla as a company is already getting the response for Elon's crazy actions. After all, who the fuck will buy a Tesla now as it's a political statement that you are for Elon?





And it's going to be worse. A lot worse.

The Trump cult will fight for it's revolution and live in it's alternate reality, where the economic and political damage that Trump (and Musk) have caused will likely be portrayed as the doings of the "Deep State", which is there to get Trump. And some will believe that idiotic line.

So don't think you won't be heard.

Thank you @Christoffer and @BC for the Q&A about opposition activism and messaging.

I hope you don't mind but it is relevant to my thread and have C&P'd part of it there.

'This Moment is Medieval'...
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/974040

Cheers! :sparkle:

Also, thanks to @Wayfarer for starting this necessary and valuable discussion.
I've been reading along and admiring the in-depth commentary.
It has stimulated some excellent exchanges from a variety of perspectives. :fire:

Be as forceful as required, and not less so. Hammer the message home, again and again, about the very real damage Donald Trump et al are doing to the body politic and institutions of government. — BC

I would add: Listen to what people are saying about their concerns and problems. Then, act to show you care and will support them, in real terms.
Grass roots intervention.

And he's [Musk] careening around Washington like an unguided missile. People should be on the streets over it. — Wayfarer

I think there are protests but we are not seeing them. It's not just Washington he is affecting adversely, there is gross interference in European politics. By him and Vance stirring the hard-right pot.

And as ssu points out:

When Trump comes to the European Union and gets us to a trade war, I think the outcome can be that the US really leaves NATO. Because nobody will say to Trump that it is a bad thing I fear. Someone like JD Vance and Musk are too far with the idea that "one has to shake up old liberal Europe". — ssu

It's more than just a 'shake-up', more of a break-up but I'm going to leave it here. Will still follow...

What is unclear about it? — Christoffer

No, it's not that it's unclear (although, I could wrangle it in that direction). It's that I think the 'view' described is erroneous to a rather extreme degree :) It was quippage, not argument.

A sharply divided Supreme Court on Wednesday denied the Trump administration’s request to block a lower court order on foreign aid funding, clearing the way for the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development to restart nearly $2 billion in payments for work already done.

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justice Amy Coney Barrett joined the court’s three liberal justices in the 5-4 order, which was the high court’s first significant move on lawsuits related to President Donald Trump’s initiatives in his second term.

...Soon after the ruling, U.S. District Judge Amir H. Ali ordered the government to develop a schedule for restarting the payments.

Aid groups had argued that the Trump administration was flouting Ali’s order to pay its bills and hailed the high court’s decision as a sign that the president cannot ignore the law. — Supreme Court says judge can force Trump administration to pay foreign aid

(Gift Link)

The suspension of US Foreign Aid and U.S.A.I.D. has wrought havoc not only in developing nations, but also amongst many rural communities in the US which provide the primary production that is distributed through these channels. Read about the consequences.

It's baffling that the political right is cheering on Trump's destruction of the Federal public service. Many of the services being cut are essential for public welfare, not 'corrupt bureaucracies'. Trump and Musk seem motivated more by hatred of the Government than by an intention to actually improve it.

No, it's not that it's unclear (although, I could wrangle it in that direction). It's that I think the 'view' described is erroneous to a rather extreme degree :) It was quippage, not argument. — AmadeusD

It is extreme to the point of provoking thought. I elaborated more in the second post, but imagine a scenario in which the US goes so far in the wrong direction that people has to do something about it. When is it time to think about such questions? Now, or in the chaos of such a situation? It would also be a point of provoking thought for the purpose of increasing the knowledge to prevent things from going in the wrong direction.

At the moment, Trump granting Musk entry and power within the government and letting him grant access to unauthorized personnel is considered breaking the law. That's the foundation of the lawsuits being drawn up. If Trump tries to block these lawsuit investigations, that will be a direct obstruction of the law. And with the track record of how things have been going, Trump seems much more inclined to go by force than anything else, threatening democrat officials if they try to object towards his policies.

When is the time to think about these things for real? Do you actually think nothing is happening at the moment?

It looks like the plan to shut down the Department of Education is going forward. It was funny to hear the T complain about U.S. school rankings during the State of the Union address when he has already killed the means of knowing what those numbers are (as I reported earlier.),

There has been talk of moving some of the functions of DOE to other agencies. Project Management has not been a hallmark of the Administration so far. The thought so far seems to fire everybody who used to do X and dump it into the inboxes of people with no experience of the programs.

There is the plan to take Federal dough but change its vector:

During his campaign, Trump called for shifting those functions to the states. He has not offered details on how the agency’s core functions of sending federal money to local districts and schools would be handled.

The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, a sweeping proposal outlining a far-right vision for the country, offered a blueprint. It suggested sending oversight of programs for kids with disabilities and low-income children first to the Department of Health and Human Services, before eventually phasing out the funding and converting it to no-strings-attached grants to states. — AP

Project Management — Paine

Here's an old comedy bit

Yes, a certain number of us quote freely from it at work.

It looks like the plan to shut down the Department of Education is going forward. It was funny to hear the T complain about U.S. school rankings during the State of the Union address when he has already killed the means of knowing what those numbers are (as I reported earlier.), — Paine

The budget for the Department of Education was $268 B at the end of the Biden Administration. HERE IS A GRAPH of how the money was spent. $161B, the largest expenditure, is for Federal Student Aid. Elementary and secondary education gets $83B, and $21B goes for special education and rehabilitation services.

States and local governments, on the other hand, spend 756 billion on education in 2021. I do not know whether that is an over- or -under estimation.

One thing is certain: K-12 education is a vital function, but it is also a long-standing can of worms. What different segments of the American population want from K-12 education in the thousands of school districts varies a lot. A lot of money is spent by schools, but results tend to be disappointing for many parents.

My sense is that perhaps 10% to 20% of parents get the kind of education they want for their children: Children in the top 10% of income earning families tend to live in better environments where the benefits of good performance in school and higher education are not open to question. They tend to go to (usually public) schools where the ethos of education is more or less common property.

Children in progressively lower categories of income tend to do progressively worse. Of course there are some significant exceptions, but as a general trend, this seems to be the case.

If schools are not performing well, this probably isn't something the Department of Education can do much about.

There is some research that indicates 5 to 6 year old students who arrive in the first grade with significant deficits in pre-school development (all sorts of skills) are usually not able to successfully overcome the negative consequences of poor home environments in the years ahead, especially in verbal skills. This group is a minority of students one hopes, but it does seem to be getting larger.

Remediating the environments in which children are raised is difficult because it means changing the lives of parents, and that may just not be practically possible. It would take a Defense Department-sized federal department of fairy godmothers with magic wands to solve the problem.

Who or what are you quoting from? It is not in the graph page you posted.

I get the idea that supporting particular programs in very poor areas is not going to turn them into throbbing centers of opportunity, but they do help some people. The Project 2025 idea of States deciding who will be helped inclines me to cut out the money altogether. In for a penny, in for a pound of futility.

Edit to add: You were not quoting but speaking for yourself?

Who or what are you quoting from? It is not in the graph page you posted. — Paine

The address on which the graph is located is https://usafacts.org/explainers/what-does-the-us-government-do/agency/us-department-of-education/ The graph is located a ways down the page.

Edit to add: You were not quoting but speaking for yourself? — Paine

Speaking for my self, of course, but reflecting various pieces I've read. For instance Geoffrey Canada's program for young children in Harlem New York City shows both how language deficits affect performance in primary school, and how the deficits can be prevented IF intervention begins very early. Numerous reports show wealthier school districts performing better than poorer ones.

Understood about the importance of early education. My thinking is if the Federal dough is no longer going to be supporting that then what? All the "states rights" stuff is what?

All the "states rights" stuff is what? — Paine

"States Rights", to my mind, is all about any mandate from the Federal government -- SCOTUS, COTUS, OR POTUS that seems to correct inequity / discrimination / institutional disadvantage propagated by one group of more powerful citizens against less powerful citizens. States Rights was the shield raised against SCOTUS's Brown vs. The Board of Education which declared racial segregation in education unconstitutional.

Southern states are the natural home of states rights, but a liberal northern state might start thinking about states rights if a liberal northern ox is gored by the feds.

Southern states are the natural home of states rights, but a liberal northern state might start thinking about states rights if a liberal northern ox is gored by the feds. — BC

Maybe so.