This user has been deleted and all their posts removed.

This user has been deleted and all their posts removed.

Unlike you I never said one way or another, like when you said the FBI was going to collapse. I’m fully aware that Trump’ and Musk’s policies are a massive gamble.

If I do predict I err on the side of pessimism, like I did with the election, so if I’m wrong I am pleasantly surprised. I collect these little predictions that are given to me and store them so when they prove to be right or wrong, I recognize whom said what. And so far you’re batting zero, my friend.

The difference is that others like you take their predictions of the future as justifications to apply actions in the present. It’s a racket, of course, because if they’re wrong they can say their actions prevented the future; but if they’re right they can say “I told you so”.

This particular act wasn’t just a spur-of-the-moment meltdown of the mentally ill, as usually is the case, but the use of a mask and duct tape suggest some level of planning, so the owner guesses it was probably a neighbor or someone who followed him home. — NOS4A2

Someone is caught on camera slashing another person's tires. We cannot jump to the conclusion that the vandalism was carried out because the person is a Tesla owner. Slashing tires is a somewhat common vindictive act, and probability dictates that it's bound to happen to Tesla owners, just like it happens to the owners of other cars.

So, we need some statistics showing which types of cars are subjected to the largest amounts of vandalism. It might be the type which attracts the most aggressive driver type. Have you ever taken a baseball bat to a Dodge Ram? I saw a Honda Civic with slashed tires.

75% of US scientists who answered Nature poll consider leaving
^{— Alexandra Witze · Nature · Mar 27, 2025}

3 out of 4 is high; actual numbers will be lower; packing up and moving isn't so easy, let alone to another country.
Still, some will be leaving due to the Trump administration, which might well turn out to be a(nother) loss for the US.
And, they're already deporting foreign students (2025Mar27, 2025Mar29), and some have cancelled studies in the US.
What a dumb mess.
Who does it all benefit anyway?

. I collect these little predictions that are given to me and store them so when they prove to be right or wrong, I recognize whom said what. And so far you’re batting zero, my friend.

Sounds like you’re talking to yourself in the mirror, if there is a reflection that is and you’re not just talking into the void.

What a dumb mess.
Who does it all benefit anyway? — jorndoe

You operate on the idea that they have any clue about anything other than filling their own pockets. The US got rich on industry, not science, that's their idea without them ever understanding how the two fit together.

Fundamentally the people in power are conspiracy nutjobs. If you dig into how much conspiracy they believe in it's staggering. They're just fundamentally fucking stupid and they won by the votes of people who never read the news, but "always voted republican" and the other conspiracy nutjobs who are unable to behave according to democracy through the inability of the conspiracy theorist to conduct critical thinking about political parties and candidates.

Asking the 3o model to do an estimate of statistics on how many continuously hold strong conspiracy belief it sets the number as high as 20-40%. That would mean that democratic methods do not apply anymore and the US isn't operating as a functioning democracy, even disregarding the problems of how the US handles its democracy as a system. Even if the real number isn't that high, and considering that a percentage of all conspiracy nuts also has the extremists, even at a level of 5% of extreme conspiracy idiots would mean that if they're inspired to vote (which Trump did), they are enough to sway an election seen as how balanced and close most elections are in general.

I collect these little predictions that are given to me and store them so when they prove to be right or wrong, I recognize whom said what. And so far you’re batting zero, my friend. — NOS4A2

Two months is a very short time, NOS. But I think the largest issue is the intentional unraveling of the alliance system that the US has had. Now, as we are talking about Trump, he could do these incredible 180 degree turns rapidly. For example, he could just gather around all of the US treaty allies and then say that this is the "tough love" to shove them to bear their part in the defense, yet that the US is still committed on it's treaties. That's all that Trump could do.

But when he doesn't do it, then you have journalists really contemplating the possibility of the US taking military action to annex Greenland or even Canada. Now it's still quite hypothetical. Yet it is one thing for Europe to carry more weight in the alliance, a totally different issue is to seek replacement for the alliance. Both situations call for larger defense spending, but in totally different situations. And when you have for example Germany starting a discussion of getting it's own nuclear deterrence, which it could btw. do rather easily if push comes to a shove. (See Germany debates nuclear weapons, again. But now it’s different.)

And let's see if Trump goes ahead with what the tariffs he has promised in a few days from now. Will we have stagflation, recession or deflation because of markets going down? Anyway, the next six months doesn't seem so rosy. That the stock market has gone down, but the dollar hasn't been the refuge is a bit alarming. Gold on the other hand has gone up quite a while. Which actually isn't good news (but something I've invested in for many years now).



The idea that international trade is bad is simply stupid. Yes, globalization has meant that manufacturing has gone to countries with far lower salaries and hence the production has been cheaper. Yes, indeed you argue that it has been an income transfer from the workers to the capitalists. Yet the idea of transforming this by tariffs is strange, because still the labor costs in the US are far more higher and hence it will cost more to produce in the US. Throughout economic history, the argument for trade barriers has been to create an industry capable of competing in global market. Then the attempt has been successful, when the objective is to be do away with the tariffs in the long run. Yet if the policy is to have tariff's and trade barriers to sustain and industry, that is a ruinous policy, which has been implemented a lot in Africa and third world countries.

Simply put it, mercantilism didn't work. But Trump thinks it will.

I think that's a reasonable assessment, ssu.

Trump's plan is a huge gamble and I'm prepared either way. Personally, I rather like the trade war so far. For example politicians here are forced to discuss eliminating “interprovincial” trade barriers in Canada. There are stiff rules and regulations between provinces in the country, making it almost necessary to ship products to the US rather than to other provinces. Politicians here are forced to talk about lowering taxes and addressing the cost of living crisis. The new prime minister even cancelled the much-reviled “carbon tax” of his predecessor and is looking to lower more regulations should he win the next election.

Trump isn’t the only one abusing tariffs, either, and other countries have seemingly turned Trumpian overnight. Some provincial leaders in Canada have banned alcohol from red states, or threatened to cut off energy, and has also tariffed the food. The government even bought billboards in the US that said ironically “Tariffs are a tax on American Workers” while mentioning nothing of its own tariffs on American goods and taxes on Canadian citizens. Another irony is that Canada has abused tariffs for most of its history, at least up until NAFTA.

But the rhetoric from the state-funded news and its dutiful followers has turned alarmingly nationalistic and anti-American, with pundits discussing bullshit like guerrilla warfare or joining the EU. So it turns out that, without America, the self-righteous veneer has slipped away pretty quickly and the underlying truth is exposed. It turns out that Canada cannot be a globalist socialist welfare state without the United States, and has to think of repealing its own totalitarian inclinations. Watching the EU scramble to rearm, I suspect it's the same in Europe.

It still amazes me how one man can have such a global effect and I fully welcome the shock to the system.

Vance's predictions that American manufacturing is coming back from the grave indicates a very interventionist, heading toward collectivist behavior on the part of the Executive. The status quo was set out by hardline laissez-faire dudes. I mean, the last time the US government was on the side of US manufacturing was never. If they carry it through and resist falling into corruption, this will be a big change for the average person. I'm looking forward to seeing what's going to happen with education and healthcare.

Who knew the world is now ending because of…vandalism of cars. I thought it was wokeness or Hunter’s laptop or something. Glad to stay up on the latest media-driven obsessions of the clown show.

Ah... The sweet performative contradiction of someone decrying statism and then to cheer on the orange buffoon ruling by decree.

So now Trump is demanding that anything "woke" should be removed from The Smithsonian museums. And historians are pointing out that the specifics of it all is downright exactly what both the Italian fascists and Nazi Germany did.

Like, how much further is he going with this before the people wake the fuck up?

The Fair Trade concept is definitely interventionist, but according to them it’s aimed to produce the conditions for free trade. It’s like the paradox of freedom, where freedom eventually leads to tyranny; one has to eventually fight back or lose it. I’m very interested to see if it works.

The Fair Trade concept is definitely interventionist, but according to them it’s aimed to produce the conditions for free trade. — NOS4A2

I didn't realize they'd said this. I'd heard Vance echoing stuff from Trump's previous presidential campaign, about jobs. It's hard to imagine Trump even caring about free trade. That's such an abstract goal.

The only way they can pull it off, as far as I can see, is if they do massive cuts to taxes, regulation, and spending to offset the cost of the tariff on consumers. If it doesn’t work we can close the door on economic populism.

If it doesn’t work we can close the door on economic populism. — NOS4A2

I doubt it. Populism was born to be hi-jacked.

The only way they can pull it off, as far as I can see, is if they do massive cuts to taxes, regulation, and spending to offset the cost of the tariff on consumers — NOS4A2

They're talking about stagflation again. The fed didn't lower rates last go-round.

The idea is that when Mexican avocados become too expensive, Texan farmers will have a reason to devote some land to them. When the electronic thingy GE is presently making in Juarez becomes too expensive, GE will pull manufacturing of the item back within American borders.

Since most American manufacturing will be automated, American robot manufacturing will take off, and the network of homegrown stuff will continue to grow in a self reinforcing way.

What's being undone here is neo-liberalism.

The idea is that when Mexican avocados become too expensive, Texan farmers will have a reason to devote some land to them. When the electronic thingy GE is presently making in Juarez becomes too expensive, GE will pull manufacturing of the item back within American borders. — frank

Or people will stop eating avocados. It's a foodstuff easily replaced by other foodstuffs unless you insist on reading guacamole. Eg, demand substitution.

And GE might find it more efficient to sell in other countries than the US. Instead of moving production they change their logistics.

Since the tariffs are aimed at countries, other suppliers may fill the gap.

In short, we cannot tell and we do not have viable models to predict what happens exactly (not in this site, I don't know if something exists). The only certainty is price increases as a structural adjustment to the market of products subject to tariffs. If it would've been feasible to produce locally at a competitive price, it would already be happening. It isn't. So to bridge the gap, consumers will always have to pay more.

Edit: note that the orange idiot has claimed tariffs will both increase government tax income (paid by the importer, who will jack up prices for consumers) and create local production. This is, however, mutually exclusive. Either people keep buying abroad and the importer pays more taxes (which consumers effectively pay through higher prices) or they start producing locally, which means nothing is imported and therefore no taxes are raised. You cannot have both.

Or people will stop eating avocados — Benkei

They will stop eating avocados temporarily, but it's a very popular product in the US. I think demand will persist until American farmers start making them.

And GE might find it more efficient to sell in other countries than the US. Instead of moving production they change their logistics. — Benkei

They moved to Juarez after NAFTA specifically to take advantage of cheaper labor there. If tariffs eliminate that advantage, they'll likely come back to somewhere in the US.

If it would've been feasible to produce locally at a competitive price, it would already be happening. — Benkei

American farmers can't compete with Mexican farmers. A leftist would say that was the whole point of NAFTA: to cripple American labor and finally stomp out the power of American unions. In other words, what many don't understand is that increasing tariffs, especially on Mexico and Canada, is just going back to the way it was before NAFTA.

I'm not saying there are any guarantees that things will go the way Trump and Vance imagine, I'm just noting, especially to other Americans, that this is not rightist. The goal here is actually leftist, but American leftism died. That's what makes the present situation pretty fascinating.

For example politicians here are forced to discuss eliminating “interprovincial” trade barriers in Canada. — NOS4A2

I've read about this. Canada has to really think a lot over when suddenly there's an actual border where there hasn't been an actual one earlier. And then truly look at other trade relations with other countries.

But the rhetoric from the state-funded news and its dutiful followers has turned alarmingly nationalistic and anti-American, with pundits discussing bullshit like guerrilla warfare or joining the EU. — NOS4A2

This is why I've said that talking about the 51st State and referring to the prime minister as "governor" is far more dangerous that it at first seems. Questioning the sovereignty of a nation state is like summoning up the devil. You either have extremely dark intentions, or you simply don't know what you are doing. Coming from an "expendable" country, we take these issues dead seriously.

Let's remind ourselves just how good the relations have been. Not only are there people like you or Canadians living in the US, there's about 1 million dual-citizens that have both Canadian and US passports. What is their role here?

The only lucky thing here is that Canadians understand that this isn't what Americans voted for when voting for Trump. But once the trade wars starts and if energy cuts from Canada produce rolling blackouts, the Americans can also have the grudge against the Canadians. It truly can get ugly.

Since most American manufacturing will be automated, American robot manufacturing will take off, and the network of homegrown stuff will continue to grow in a self reinforcing way. — frank

If it would be so, then you could compete with other manufacturers around the globe. But there's a scary alternative that can happen: once imports decrease, there is ample demand for the current manufacturers just to keep things as they are and not invest in tech. If American manufacturers aren't competing with the outside World, why would they have to extensively invest in technology and focus on competitiveness?

What's being undone here is neo-liberalism. — frank

What's being undone is Globalization. And in World history when globalization has decreased, bad things have happened.

Just think of this Philosophy Forum itself. Here people around the World are talking about philosophy and politics on a site that I assume has the actual servers in the US. (One can correct me if I'm wrong here.)

Assume if a tariff barrier is put up and any European or Australian that would want to participate on this forum had to pay a long distance call toll of yesteryear, meaning this posting would cost me let's say five euros and just to view this pages would cost me tens of cents per minute. You think there would be many participants for Europe or Australia then?

We just take it for granted, but this whole forum is something thanks to that "neo-liberalism" and "globalization". Do we want to throw it all away?

Catching up with some Zakaria interviews...

_{Fareed speaks with former Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt. They discuss Vice President Vance’s recent trip to Greenland, President Trump’s desire to “purchase” the territory and the future of the US-Danish alliance.}

On GPS: Former Danish Prime Minister: ‘We have stood by America for decades’
^{— Fareed Zakaria · CNN · Mar 30, 2025 · 5m:48s}

Yep, Trump/Vance's statements just don't make sense, unless their motives lie elsewhere, e.g. natural resources. If it's minerals, then set up business with the Greenlanders.

_{Fareed speaks with Russian political philosopher Alexander Dugin, who is known to some as “Putin’s brain.” They discuss the growing alignment between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin – and the origins of Russia’s war on Ukraine.}

On GPS: Russian philosopher: ‘Putinism has won in the US’
^{— Fareed Zakaria · CNN · Mar 30, 2025 · 7m:29s}

Ough. The imperialism is hard to miss. Since Dugin's latest book is about Trump's second presidency, he must be a quick writer.

If American manufacturers aren't competing with the outside World, why would they have to extensively invest in technology and focus on competitiveness? — ssu

Have you ever heard of IBM?

What's being undone is Globalization. — ssu

Correct.

Ough. The imperialism is hard to miss. Since Dugin's latest book is about Trump's second presidency, he must be a quick writer. — jorndoe

Dugin's attitudes show the closeness of the ideas to the alt-right and Bannon.

This is why I've said that talking about the 51st State and referring to the prime minister as "governor" is far more dangerous that it at first seems. Questioning the sovereignty of a nation state is like summoning up the devil. You either have extremely dark intentions, or you simply don't know what you are doing. Coming from an "expendable" country, we take these issues dead seriously.

Let's remind ourselves just how good the relations have been. Not only are there people like you or Canadians living in the US, there's about 1 million dual-citizens that have both Canadian and US passports. What is their role here?

The only lucky thing here is that Canadians understand that this isn't what Americans voted for when voting for Trump. But once the trade wars starts and if energy cuts from Canada produce rolling blackouts, the Americans can also have the grudge against the Canadians. It truly can get ugly.

The only sovereign the leaders of Canada swear an oath to is the King of England, his heirs and his successors. Canada is Crown Land.

That’s why all this sovereignty piffle is nonsense. Canada’s new prime minister was Trudeau's financial advisor during covid, was governor for the Bank of England during Brexit, and his American company Brookfield Asset Management is currently embroiled in a lawsuit where they are accused of buying bribery contracts and obtaining concession rights, charging massive tolls to poor Peruvian workers who had to use the highway to get to their jobs in the city. No one voted for him. He is not a member of parliament. He's a jet-setting globalist through and through, an actual oligarch. He'll look good flying away every weekend to do a summit in Whogivesistan, no doubt, and mingle with European elites, but I see no future for the average Canadian under his leadership.

His installing as prime minister is the swan song of globalism. The geography, the culture, the language, and potential for trade indicate that the idea of a north american partnership of some sort, along with Greenland, is far more appealing than continuing to exist as the vassal states of crumbled European empires. At least in the US, and in Finland, we can remove our heads of state, and talk about sovereignty.

@ssu can you please stop discussing with an idiot? I've counted 15 performative contradictions in his last two posts. There isn't even an argument there and you're engaging him substantively as if there is.

Trump's election is like national catharsis for Americans. (And some confused Transatlanticists)

For a few years they pretend all of America's trouble stem from Trump, so that when he's gone they can pretend America has been cleansed of evil, ready to once again take the moral high ground in the name of freedom and democracy!

The blinders go back on, and America can go back to its rapacious ways with full consent of its people. The powers that be creep back into the shadows, and the people go back to sleep.

Of all things to come out of Trump's presidency, this will be the worst.

Preferable to Putin’s rapacious ways and a balance to China.

It really isn't. Neither Russia nor China can hold a candle to the wanton destruction the US has wrought upon the world.

Did you know Uncle Sam seems to have a pet peeve for conducting and supporting genocides?

I'm not saying there are any guarantees that things will go the way Trump and Vance imagine, I'm just noting, especially to other Americans, that this is not rightist. The goal here is actually leftist, but American leftism died. That's what makes the present situation pretty fascinating.

Stimulating manufacturing and farming at home is a good thing in some ways, but as Benkei says prices will go up and what it stimulates might not be what we imagine. We had all this debate in the U.K. with Brexit, because we imported stuff easily from eastern and southern Europe. But because we sent back European workers and the young in our country don’t want to do a proper days work. Things have stagnated and we now import inferior product with dubious standards from third world countries.

Manufacturing has stagnated too, due to lack of skilled workers and the inability for manufacturers to truly operate from home in an interconnected world with just in time supply lines etc. Making it uncompetitive to compete with imports from non EU countries.

Once stagflation sets in, it’s difficult to budge and the shit that Doge is up to is throwing a spanner in the real economy which will be reeling from the tariff war and shortages in cheap labour.

We’ve been here before. Now imagine a world dominated by China and Putin, or more realistically BRICS. You think there will be less genocide?