If there is the ability to have sanctions, to freeze assets, why not this then? If there's no law specifically against it. — ssu
Are you suggesting he's manning his own boat? Think about all the areas in which he is acting. I think he's one of a committee, or more likely the figurehead, allowed his tantrums. Otherwise it's all his show, and I do not think he is remotely near that able. — tim wood
When you read books about his first administration, they portray a very clear picture, which is repeated again and again.I think he's one of a committee, or more likely the figurehead, allowed his tantrums. Otherwise it's all his show, and I do not think he is remotely near that able. — tim wood
Thank's! Learn something new every day.14th amendment precludes it. It puts into question the validity of my claim compared to your claim either because of the identity of the holder or the type of instrument. But also, it would breach the terms of the issuance itself and therefore result in a contractual breach. — Benkei
Oh good grief. He's saying that investors are spooked and we might have a recession — frank
… I was looking for guidance about inflation and instead found the telltale signs of an incipient financial crisis….
There are growing signs that we’re at risk of a tariff-induced financial crisis. There are multiple indicators of that risk…
So even though stock prices are dominating the headlines, the real, scary action is in the bond market. The nightmare scenario, which we saw play out in 2008, is that falling asset prices cause a scramble for cash, which leads to fire sales that drive prices even lower, and the whole system implodes. Suddenly, that scenario doesn’t look impossible.
Maybe we’ll steer away from the edge of the abyss. But Trumponomics has already proved worse than even its harshest critics imagined, and the worst may be yet to come.
So even though stock prices are dominating the headlines, the real, scary action is in the bond market. The nightmare scenario, which we saw play out in 2008, is that falling asset prices cause a scramble for cash, which leads to fire sales that drive prices even lower, and the whole system implodes. Suddenly, that scenario doesn’t look impossible.
Do you believe that Victor Orban is a dictator? How about Putin? If so, tell me in detail what qualifies these men as autocratic rulers? What strategies and tactics did they use to gradually change a system with checks and balances into an autocracy? What signs would you look for in Trump to convince you that he thinks in similar ways about power as Orban and Putin?
So even though stock prices are dominating the headlines, the real, scary action is in the bond market. The nightmare scenario, which we saw play out in 2008, is that falling asset prices cause a scramble for cash, which leads to fire sales that drive prices even lower, and the whole system implodes. Suddenly, that scenario doesn’t look impossible.
"For the next four years, the Trump agenda is focused on Main Street. It's Main Street's turn. It's Main Street's turn to hire workers. It's Main Street's turn to drive investment. And it's Main Street's turn to restore the American dream."
"For too long, financial policy has served large financial institutions at the expense of smaller ones. No more. No more. This administration aims to give all banks the chance to succeed, whether it's JP Morgan or your local mortgage and loan."
"It aims to get capital to Americans who need it by getting bureaucracy out of the way. For the last four decades, basically since I began my career in Wall Street, Wall Street has grown wealthier than ever before, and it can continue to grow and do well.
Given that wealth inequality has been on the lips of progressives for who knows how long, if this plan bears fruit for the working class, will it change some minds here? Or is it anti-Trump all the way down? — NOS4A2
During a recent speech at the American Bankers Association, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this:
“For the next four years, the Trump agenda is focused on Main Street. It's Main Street's turn. It's Main Street's turn to hire workers. It's Main Street's turn to drive investment. And it's Main Street's turn to restore the American dream." — NOS4A2
Krugman is not saying we're back to 2008. He's saying he's concerned. If you want to go further and say we actually are experiencing a crisis of that magnitude, you'll have to explain why you think the markets can't recover on their own — frank
President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs are hiking up the cost of American consumer goods and roiling the markets. The word roiling undersells what is happening, though. Investors are dumping American government bonds, normally the safest of safe harbors; the plunge in bond prices is causing knock-on effects in market after market. A financial crisis—today or in the coming weeks—is a tangible possibility.
In the event of such a catastrophe, the Federal Reserve would step in with trillions of dollars of liquidity, buying up the assets that traders are dumping and acting as a purchaser of last resort. In time, Congress might try to help support the economy too, by cutting taxes or sending out checks. But such accommodative policies would pump up consumer prices, already rising because of the tariffs. And they would do nothing to change the fundamental fact driving countless panicked and chaotic trades: Investors do not trust the United States and its political system anymore.
Annie Lowrey, Atlantic Monthly
Still, there was just a surge as stock market traders decided there were deals down in the valley that formed yesterday. — frank
The surge was because of the 90-day pause in tariffs. — Christoffer
But let's remember that now Trump has that trade war with China and still he has those tariffs with everybody at 10%. That 10% + China trade war will have an effect on the US economy. — ssu
As long as his followers suffer economically — Christoffer
The easiest thing to do would be to devalue their own currencies relative to the dollar. Trump has already issued a warning to them not to do that. There aren't any countries whose trade with the US is large enough to make that option reasonable though. — frank
Isnt the fear at the moment that the markets are headed for a liquidity crisis, which happened during the 2008 financial crisis? In such a crisis, panicked investors sell everything, even bonds, so instead of what usually happens during a downturn, that investors turn to bonds as a safe haven, lowering their yields, they are sold along with everything else and their yield jumps. In 2008 the Fed has to step in and provide liquidity. — Joshs
During a recent speech at the American Bankers Association, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this:
"For the next four years, the Trump agenda is focused on Main Street. It's Main Street's turn. It's Main Street's turn to hire workers. It's Main Street's turn to drive investment. And it's Main Street's turn to restore the American dream."
"For too long, financial policy has served large financial institutions at the expense of smaller ones. No more. No more. This administration aims to give all banks the chance to succeed, whether it's JP Morgan or your local mortgage and loan."
"It aims to get capital to Americans who need it by getting bureaucracy out of the way. For the last four decades, basically since I began my career in Wall Street, Wall Street has grown wealthier than ever before, and it can continue to grow and do well.
(I would post the video, but these kinds of facts are now verboten).
Given that wealth inequality has been on the lips of progressives for who knows how long, if this plan bears fruit for the working class, will it change some minds here? Or is it anti-Trump all the way down? — NOS4A2
“This was his strategy all along, and that you might even say that he goaded China into a bad position, they responded. They have shown themselves to the world to be the bad actors, and we are willing to cooperate with our allies and with our trading partners who did not retaliate. It wasn’t a hard message, don’t retaliate, things will turn out well.”
(Barrons, 9th April 2025) The selloff in U.S. government bonds gathered speed on Wednesday, with the 30-year Treasury yield set to rise the most in more than 40 years as a paradigm shift in trade policy upends the bond market.
Yields on the 30-year government debt were up 0.144 percentage point to 4.858% on Wednesday morning, putting them on pace to gain 0.467 point over a three-day period. If the market closes at current levels, it would be the largest three-day gain since January 1982.
That isn't yet sure. And let's remember that the EU response was for the tariffs raised before Trump's "Liberation Day".EDIT: also I forget but obviously the EU raised retaliatory tariffs as well. So when do we get the 100% tariff? — Benkei
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