A person can be rational and yet be unable to calculate the odds accurately. Indeed, I'm pretty sure no prisoner worked it out as the philosophy students were required to. That's part one.If the metric is to minimize personal loss or get the most benefit for you realistically in that moment then confess is better. — Jack2848
part two: Some decisions with which humans, and most other creatures are faced are long term: whether to start a trust fund for a newborn child; where to store enough nuts for the winter, etc. But the majority of our choices of action have fewer variables to consider and require a single, immediate decision based on limited information. We evolved to make very fast, uncalculating decisions, because the ones who couldn't, didn't live long enough to reproduce.But if the goal is to work towards the best possible outcome over time regardless of momentary personal loss then it is rational to not confess. — Jack2848
Get involved in philosophical discussions about knowledge, truth, language, consciousness, science, politics, religion, logic and mathematics, art, history, and lots more. No ads, no clutter, and very little agreement — just fascinating conversations.