I agree with you that "herd immunity" became a political thing in the UK. Maybe they thought we could deal with this virus the way we did H1N1. Turns out we can't. I think we all know that now. — frank

:up:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Not suggesting you don't listen to @frank either.

I'd like to see everyone who wants to just rip the shit out of the other political side doing it on the Trump thread. That's what it's there for. And keep this thread for more nuanced ( :cheer: ) critiques.

I don't think you two are as far away from each other as you think. The phrase "herd immunity" has different connotations, some political, some medical.

:up:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

This is also useful:

Just read the article, dude. This is actually all explained.

Herd immunity is one way to approach it. But only if the spread is manageable, i.e. less than 1:1. Then, yes, we potentially get better overall immunity and buy time like you said. But you need to hammer it first to get to that stage as per "The hammer and the dance" article that @Andrew M put up. So, initially the idea is to smash it with extreme social distancing and quarantining measures, and yes, shutting everything down. And then gradually lay off until you're at a low level that's controllable. Short term economic hurt for long-term economic sustainability.

I'm just going to keep repeating this point on the "mild cases" issue that is sometimes used to downplay the danger of Covid.

"80% of cases are mild-moderate but the symptoms are still severe. Anything short of needing oxygen to survive is in this category."

I'd argue that a community should wait until the virus is present to start shutting down businesses. The goal is not the stop the spread, it's to slow it down. If you close businesses before the virus is there, you aren't slowing anything down. — frank

The virus spreads before you know it's there. If you know it's going to make its presence felt (say, within a couple of weeks), you know it's already there. And you need to hit it then to slow down the spread.

Take your BS to the Trump thread like I said.

You accuse everyone here who criticizes Trump of having TDS. That's not nuance. That's slavish devotion. If you think you are being nuanced, God help you. But whatever, probably better done on the Trump thread.

Maybe we should just talk about coronavirus and leave the orangeutan/saviour of the world (take your choice) out of it for a while.

Yeah, I have been talking about TDS, which I see as real medical situation. (Scott Adams says the same.) — Nobeernolife

Well, according to Matt Groening you're wrong and Trump really is a dick. I dunno. Who to believe??

No harm no foul for Senator Burr either. Just being optimistic with the public while privately telling his friends there was a disaster coming and selling hundreds of thousands of dollars in hotel and other stocks. Politicians like Trump and Burr just didn't want the good people of America to worry their silly little heads about things while they looked after their own interests. Nothing to see here.

That's the only one I really don't like as I exercise a lot. Mostly running. But... anyone can just say "Hey, I was just going for a walk", so if you allow that it has the potential to more or less makes a nonsense of the lockdown.

Good point. 97% accuracy isn't great.

they only test people if you know you've been in contact with someone who's tested positive — Michael

This is such a stupid rule. The amount of positives will be vastly underreported >> UK becoming the next coronavirus basketcase. In Ireland, you call a doctor. If your symptoms fit the profile, you get a test.

:sad: Sorry to hear @Michael. Best wishes and hopes for recovery, man. :pray:

Coming soon to a sane government near you.

Hopefully, we will get full authoritarian measures to get dumb fucks to stay inside rather than let them run about in public masturbating over their "liberty" and causing irreversible social and economic collapse, not to mention many more dead people. If not, just line the fuckers up against walls and shoot them. If they haven't learned now what's necessary, they never will and are useless to the rest of us. Social Darwinism at its finest. :heart: :kiss:

Another nail in the coffin of "It only affects old people and the vulnerable":

https://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/league-of-ireland/i-spent-eight-days-in-hospital-hooked-up-to-oxygen-ex-loi-player-lee-duffy-tells-of-covid-19-infection-39065277.html

. If no one else says anything, I think we are safe to assume my advice was mostly correct.. — ZhouBoTong

:up:



Post in Feedback for a guaranteed answer from mods. Welcome to the forum!

Nobody knows when a treatment or vaccine will become available. If it does happen very soon, yes, it will change things and you can then work that into the maths. You can't work it in when it doesn't exist.

I figure there'll be flattening as more stringent measures are imposed, so my figure involves a continued fall-off in the log curve along recent Italian lines.



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

To me that looks like it'll peak before 100,000 cases. Scale up to America and they should slow down and peak before 1 million (I'm guessing in a couple of months) presuming increasingly strict measures (short of "hammer"-like moves, which still seem unlikely on a national level).

Surely that would cost less than are futile efforts to contain an airborne virus. — Hanover

No, it wouldn't because these efforts are not futile. It's been done. You need to go read.

There's a lag in the data. The same site says zero new cases in Ireland today but 126 have been reported. And mild is probably the default before cases are classified. You need to use your common sense when looking at different figures on different sites and cross-reference.

Putting all I've read together, including @Andrew M's excellent article, unless extreme measures are taken, the US is going to hit half a million cases by about the middle of next month. Probably 250,000 identified and 250,000 downstream.

Very true.

The US is about to overtake Italy in new cases. Hunker down and don't take any chances. :pray:




https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Lol. OK.

Does this work for you?

Hey, if NOS is an American, we are too. :halo: :party:

I did. I just bet @Michael you'd say something smart on this thread. Must have been the Guinness. :groan:

Being killed by the lethal side-effects of a drug untested in a particular infection context is not like losing a dollar.

Fauci specifically said the same in the latest Trump presser btw. You can't presume someone with a different disease is going to react the same way to the same drug. You have to test first.

? But the drug is potentially dangerous.

"China, where the deadly pathogen first emerged in December, recommended the decades-old malaria drug chloroquine to treat infected patients in guidelines issued in February after seeing encouraging results in clinical trials. But within days, it cautioned doctors and health officials about the drug’s lethal side effects and rolled back its usage."

I didn't make that up. Whether or not it could also be effective is yet to be established. Let's pursue the line, but carefully. As Frank pointed out:

A drug that's helpful in one situation can be deadly in another, so you don't know if this drug is helpful or harmful in the case of coronavirus. None of us do. — frank

I know. I was just having fun.

:yum: