1 - If the formation of a military block bordering with Russia on its eastern front was perceived by Russia as an intolerable existential security threat , this would hold for NATO as much as for a European military alliance. Even more so, if one remember that the US has NEVER EVER invaded Russia proper. France, Germany and Poland did. — neomac
Russia hasn't invaded a NATO country nor an EU country.
Ukraine is neither in NATO nor the EU. — boethius
Russia wasn’t invaded by NATO nor an EU country either. And Ukraine is not part of the Russian Federation either. So what?
Ukraine also (in the before times) owned Crimea which was home to an important Russian military naval base. — boethius
Ukraine also owns commodities precious to Europe (and the World). And the Russian military naval base is a gun pointing at Ukraine’s business with Europe (and the World). So what?
Ukraine is also politically unstable with plenty of armed factions willing to cause trouble and explicitly dedicated to the destruction of Russia. — boethius
Could you provide sources from “plenty of armed factions” to support your claim that “plenty of armed factions” are “explicitly dedicated to the destruction of Russia” prior to 2014?
Furthermore, and this responds to ssu as well who seems often mystified that Russia views NATO as a threat, NATO is not just an alliance where parties commit to mutual defence, it is also a military hardware system.
Moving weapons closer to someone or something is by definition a threat. — boethius
By definition even? Did your babushka tell you that?
If I put a gun to your head, you'd view that as threatening even if I was "promising" to not harm you and if fact only putting a gun to your head to defend myself! — boethius
That’s true for Russia as much as for Ukraine. However for Ukraine it is two times more true:
1 - By your babushka’s definition of legitimate threat plus Russia having weapons on the border with Ukraine
2 - Russia has historically bullied Ukraine, not the other way around
3 - Russia is a nuclear power and a military capacity that is overwhelming wrt Ukraine without Western support
Now, you can argue that Russia shouldn't invade Ukraine even if NATO is indeed a legitimate threat to Russia, but arguing NATO is not a legitimate threat is just dumb. — boethius
It’s not as dumb as claiming that Ukraine is a threat to Russia just by moving weapons to Ukraine (Ukraine could build their weapon industry too, but better if they buy western of course). Compare the different threats posed by: strategic nuclear weapons vs tactic nuclear weapons , lethal vs non-lethal weapons, hot weapons vs cold weapons. Bringing to Ukraine lots of Swiss knives is definitely a threat to Russia by your babushka’s definition. But a laughable one.
It is such an obvious legitimate threat that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was completely predictable if the push / game of footsie to integrate Ukraine into NATO continued. — boethius
Your babushka’s definition of legitimate threat (“Moving weapons closer to someone or something is by definition a threat”) doesn’t make predictable Russian aggression of Ukraine AT ALL.
Indeed, a counterexample is the Cuban crisis. The US didn’t need to invade, regime change or annex Cuba, once the Soviet Union and the US found an agreement over the deployment of nuclear weapons Cuban could keep its regime and its territorial integrity.
Russia itself offers another counterexample, here:
in April 1997, China and Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed the Agreement on Mutual Reduction of Military Forces in the Border Areas. It stipulates that the five countries shall reduce their military forces in the border areas to the minimum level compatible with their friendly and good-neighborly relations, a level that shall not go beyond their defense needs
http://lt.china-office.gov.cn/eng/zt/zfbps/200405/t20040530_2910828.htm
So it’s not evident AT ALL that if Ukraine has in border areas a level of weapons that does “not go beyond their defense needs”, this would be an unbearable existential threat to Russia.
Which makes that policy either completely idiotic or then entirely for the purpose of provoking Russia into invading Ukraine. — boethius
The alleged provocation is claimed to become unbearable in 2008 and the NATO enlargement even before 2008 and before Putin for that matter.
Yet the invasion of Crimea happened in 2014 and the “special military operation“ in 2022. So, at least, 6 years later after the unbearable existential threat for Russia has manifested. How so?
“Provocation” doesn’t seem to have enough explanatory power without assuming HEGEMONIC COMPETITION over spheres of influence and all other relevant events that ENABLED AND ENCOURAGED Russia aggression of Ukraine in 2014 and then in 2022. More than PROVOCATION to aggress Ukraine we should talk about OPPORTUNITY to aggress Ukraine.
the purpose of the policy is not the preservation of Ukrainian sovereignty — boethius
The preservation of Ukraine sovereignty has been already achieved so far. Russia failed its regime coup in Kiev. The West may not be interested in or capable of securing the Ukrainian territorial integrity by military means.
Now that the copium highs are wearing off, such as belief in the great counter offensive and "cutting the land bridge", I really hope cheerleaders for Ukraine fighting, repudiating any compromise whatsoever, rather than negotiating and compromising and really able to take a long honest stare at the dead so far and simply ask themselves if its fair that these people died on false premises and false promises. — boethius
First, I must ask: who are “the cheerleaders for Ukraine fighting” “repudiating any compromise whatsoever” in this thread? I want names and quotes.
Second, your caricature is conflating propaganda with politics AS USUAL. It’s a caricature, because as far as I’m concerned, those people who believed/believe it possible for Ukraine to regain its territories back, don’t need to have a specific military plan or timeline in mind, and their expectations were/are conditional on the Western military aid which has significantly declined over time so far. But the idea that the Western military support would be actually enough to support the Ukrainian offensive, could be more a honest hope than a honest belief. It’s conflating propaganda with politics because it’s completely unreasonable to expect that politicians would easily fall for propaganda (so e.g. politics may say something to the press and then say something else behind doors). And, by my understanding, political decision makers of sovereign countries are the primary responsible of their policies because THAT’S THE POLITICAL RULE OF THE GAME THEY ARE PLAYING: the political leadership of sovereign states IS the political agent and must primarily respond for their foreign policy decisions wrt the perceived national interest TO THEIR PEOPLE. Besides the political urge for propaganda is PHYSIOLOGICAL to the political competition and pushed by media outlets (also beyond political utility or intentionality) so one should neither overstate the reliability of propaganda (e.g. propaganda slogans like "whatever it takes”), nor overblame its unreliability. The same holds for ANY COUNTER-PROPAGANDA (INCLUDING YOURS!). All I can agree with is that Russia has scored more points in the propaganda contest so far and this is a major blowback against the West. Maybe deservedly so.
Third, as far as I’m concerned, I do not regret nor retreat anything I said, and I still support it. ALL OF IT, WORD BY WORD. And I would do so even if the entire Ukraine (my country, the world) and its population was erased by fighting with Russia. Also because, differently from you, I’m not doing propaganda. As far as I’m concerned, I’m just engaging in an irrelevant philosophy forum with irrelevant anonymous nobodies (who have ABSOLUTELY NO FUCKING CLUE on what to do to fix the world) as a form of selfish intellectual entertainment like a videogame, and nothing else. You can’t emotionally blackmail me, man of honour. So suck it up and move on.