What can I know with 100% certainty? not exactly, but almost, sort of.
If you analyse the truth table of ~(p implies q) , it's only true when p is true and q is false.
Which is the same truth table, not as (p implies not q), BUT (p implies not q) and (p). So I think you're half right, but you need that "and p" to complete it.
https://www.umsu.de/trees/#(~3(p~5q))~5((p~5~3q)~1p)
Of course the frustrating part is, in natural language when someone says "it's not true that p implies q", they're not actually saying "p and not q", they're usually saying "p and q don't have that relationship, maybe no relationship at all".
Like if someone says "You're a virgo, that means you have a small brain", and you say "that doesn't imply that", you're not saying it means you're a virgo and you DON'T have a small brain, you're saying there's just no relationship between those two variables. Classic logic doesn't capture that well, it seems to me.
This is one of those instances where it's clear that natural language reasoning can diverge from symbolic logic.