Sleeping Beauty Problem There is no third flip. The coin is only tossed once. When it lands Tails, Sleeping Beauty is awakened twice and when it lands Heads, she is awakened once. — Pierre-Normand
okay, thanks for clearing that up, as i read the original description of the fake experiment more than once, and that part of it was unclear to me. To me it was saying that heads ends the experiment right away, tails produces two more flips. Maybe it's because i was reading it at work, but i doubt it, i remember the experiment confusing me, and i remember the article saying that it was confusing.
Still: the effects of one flip never effect the outcome of the other FLIPS, unless that is baked into the experiment, so it is a misleading hypothetical question (but interesting to me for whatever reason). The likelihood of the flips themselves are still 50/50, not accounting for other spooky phenomenon that we just don't know about. So, i'll think about it some more, as it has a "gamey" vibe to it...
Here's what would effect the outcome to skew the bias slightly in the tails direction: let's say the experimentor gives her the drug, keeps flipping the coin while she sleeps, and then wakes her up on the condition that there are 2/3 tails
on the last 3 tosses...then asks "what was the last coin flip?". There would be exactly 1/3 odds of it being heads...but as it stands, even the "correct" way you describe it, i still can't side with 1/3 camp.
I guess at this point it's a game to see how long it will take before i get frustrated with talking about this, so go on...