The principles are not at all simple in their interaction and you have entirely omitted the role of salinity. — unenlightened
I omitted the role of salinity because it is a secondary feature. The point is, that as secondary, changes in salinity cannot cause the GCB to actually shut off. Some articles place salinity as a primary feature, implying that cooled water would not sink if there was no salinity. But this is not true, as we notice in fresh water lakes.
The online articles about the THC, or GCB, are not very consistent with each other. Where they place the underwater flow varies greatly. Also, I've noticed discrepancy in the time required to complete the cycle, with reports varying between 700 and 1500 years. How can they talk about a slight slow down when there is that much discrepancy already? Also, it is stated in the quote I took, that in the practise of measurement, the flow sometimes does not even follow the path presumed by the model.
However, radical changes in circulation can certainly happen due to climate change, that will in turn have a large influence on the climate. — unenlightened
Radical changes will happen, there is no doubt in my mind. The big factors are the earth's spinning, its interaction with the sun, and the positioning of land masses. The land masses we know to be changing, with volcanoes and plate tectonics. These features seem to be attributable to internal forces of the earth. Changes to the properties of the water itself (salinity, turbidity, etc.) could also causes lesser changes which could appear to us as large changes, due to our limited observational time scale. Changes to the properties of the atmosphere, since winds are a driving force, would also change the THC.
I see that a number of scientists now speak about the water in the oceans in terms of water masses, like meteorologists speak of air masses. These are masses of water with similar properties, which may move in away similar to air masses. So we can make an analogy between a polar air mass, and a polar water mass. The air masses have boundaries and the boundaries are areas of turbulent weather. Differences in salinity exaggerate the boundaries. In the case of air masses, portions of the polar air mass move toward the equator, sliding underneath portions of the warmer air mass moving poleward. Along the boundaries we have the jet streams, where the mixing occurs. (I acknowledge this as an over simplification.) The jet streams are not stable, always changing, and sometimes even totally breaking down to reform in a new location. This lack of continuity makes them difficult to predict. Scientists have produced some success in predicting the jet streams in the short term, through extensive observation of the air masses. but the discontinuity presents a real problem. Movement can be modeled, but a lack of movement won't indicate where the next movement will be. This means that features related to the cause of movement are missing from the theories, requiring some "guess work" in the modeling, making the models unscientific in that sense.
If we take the jet streams as analogous with the water flow, we see that these are mainly east/west directional, and are the product of the mixing of air masses to the north and south. The jet streams do not take heat from the equator to the north pole, or cold in an opposite direction, the flow represents the mixing of the heat differential. Therefore I believe that the GCB, or THC, ought to be modeled more like this. Rather than as transmitting heat from equator to poles, it ought to be described as currents produced from the mixing of water masses with different properties. A water mass in contact with another, with different properties, will flow.
Models of complex systems are always simplifications, and always inexact. Like weather forecasts, climate forecasts are subject to error that increases with the timescale. But this does not make them unscientific. — unenlightened
I disagree. The "guess work" which goes into these models is unscientific. That is the problem. True science is mixed with pseudoscience in a way where the outcome is models consisting of both. The true science does not have the required observational data, nor the required proven theories, to make the desired models. So the gaps are filled with pseudoscience. The simple issue is that the science required to make these models does not exist, yet the models are produced and presented as science. So they must be classified as pseudoscience due to the fact that the true science is contaminated within the model. Models contaminated with pseudoscience are not scientific. This is a problem which our computer driven society, which greatly facilitates model making, presents us with, unscientific models which people are inclined to call science.