Newcomer here, so tell me if I'm repeating. Is there any other feasible outcome at this point than Russia keeping the Donbass, with all Ukrainians unhappy with that moving West. — Jack Rogozhin

It's quite possible that this war becomes a frozen conflict (as Russia just loves frozen conflicts!) and Russia keeps the Donbass. However Russia giving "unhappy Ukrainians" the option to leave is more remote when you take into account just what Russia has now done in the occupied territories with it's Russification programs and even kidnapping children.

It just doesn't seem like Ukraine can take it back...without getting destroyed in the process...and the Russian Ukrainians of the Donbas want to stay part of Russia — Jack Rogozhin

Wars do end some way or another in the end. And do note that Russia hasn't been able for a long time to conquer new territories and has entrenched itself in a very defensive posture, likely because of necessity.

Another important question: Is it essential that humanity have compassion and empathy towards animals on earth? — chiknsld

As much as humanity has engineered the planet, the answer is of course. The good thing is that compassion and empathy is also something important for our survival and prosperity also. We simply don't understand how we are changing the biosphere through our actions, especially in the long run, hence it's beneficial for us to try to keep a status quo with part of the biosphere and ecology.

It's quite early to say what happens. As history gives reference, a lot can happen in the election in more than a years time.

I yet think that, unfortunately, this thread will be active even then.

China is a major customer of that grain. It looks like a major divergence of interests has developed between partners sworn to never part. — Paine

China isn't poor and there's still a functioning global grain market. Russia will be eager to compensate for any problems the war causes for China. Hence if China doesn't get grain from the Black Sea, then it gets it somewhere else.

The problem is for the poor countries which really suffer from higher prices. The Chinese won't have riots if grain prices are higher, but other countries (especially those who subsidize their grain prices, yet have difficulties in doing so) can be in a tight spot.

Still reckon Trump will never get the Republcan nomination, polling data notwithstanding. — Quixodian

Don't assume the logical with current US politics. And never underestimate how bizarre populist politics and polarization can be.

Trump might not get the Republican nomination, but then go as an independent, which will be absolute poison for the actual Republican nominee. Just like Ross Perot was for Bush.

In any case, Trump running for President will be a bigger red flag and incentive to go to vote for Democrats than Hillary Clinton's run was for Republicans.

I would absolutely defend the claim that Fukuyama has been 100% correct on no major, international rival claimant emerging to challenge liberal democracy, which is itself pretty remarkable given the history from 1780-1980. — Count Timothy von Icarus

China is the one potential counter example. — Count Timothy von Icarus

Well, you mentioned yourself the big rival. The rise of China from an economy as big as the Netherlands to the second largest economy in thirty years is a truly astonishing feat, even historically. China shows that economic growth isn't limited to only politically liberal states. In a bizarre way, that economic miracle has been done by a leadership that thinks of itself as being Marxists.

I'm not sure what that's supposed to indicate. — Isaac

Link didn't work, but I guess I found what four terms were talked about.

Well, if then Mr Peskov as the spokesperson indicated that Ukraine should acknowledge Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states, now those two "independent" states have joined Russia and are an "integral" part of Russia. And not only these two are now officially part of Russia, but also Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasta. Hence my argument that the situation had changed quite much from what Peskov had suggested.

That's what it means.

And then is the really big issue of what actually the demilitarization of Ukraine would have meant in reality and in what situation this would have put Ukraine. Because it's quite a stretch to think with Ukraine demilitarized Russia would leave things there.

Just like the Baltic States, Soviet Union didn't demand annexation right from the start, it only demanded military bases and got them in September - October 1939 from the Baltic States. Only in June 1940 Stalin gave ultimatums to the Baltic States and annexed the countries in August 1940.

Yes, China's involvement I think would be incredibly useful. — Isaac

I'm not so optimistic for this to happen. China will win little with it: perhaps by being an active diplomat in the war, this would work to normalize the relations with European countries and China as the action obviously would warm the now cool relations. But the US wouldn't budge.

And likely China doesn't want to be viewed in Russia (or by Putin) as giving a "Dolchstoss", stab in the back, at Russia in it's moment of danger. The only thing actually that China has done is that it has declared it won't tolerate the use of nuclear weapons. At least that's positive.

Thus, Fukuyama appears to be looking in the wrong place for a new movement. — Count Timothy von Icarus

Or looked in the wrong place. Fukuyama was a neocon and then, afterwards, distanced himself from the Bush era neocons and wrote an apology of a book about it in 2006 (After the Neocons: America at the Crossroads).

In a way I would talk about a distinct certain short period in history as the "Fukuyaman moment" when such preposterous arguments could be made in all seriousness. It was the time when the Soviet Union had collapsed, the US had gotten the easy quick victory from Iraq and 9/11 hadn't happened, which turned the media to look at Samuel Huntington and his Clash of Civilations as the trendy new World explanation. Hence Fukuyama has been the milestone that a multitude of authors have argued against his view. Seldom if ever have I stumbled upon someone agreeing and defending Francis Fukuyama.

Well, now there has been the Congressional hearings about the issue with David Grusch giving testimony (referring to what started his OP) alongside two Navy pilots. Interesting hearing. I have to say that it made me a lot more of an UFO/UAP tinfoil hatter than I had been earlier. I'm not so sceptical I used to be.

The hearings:



In the hearings Grusch refers many times to this interview he made:



Thinking about this conspiracy from the political dimension:

If there would be a huge secret US government reverse-engineering and recovery program on UFOs, would the government be able to keep it hidden?

No, there would be at least the occasional whistleblower and obviously many who would want the information to be public. Likely there would be a disinformation campaign and likely this would be partly successful, as the idea is so incredible. Yet new people would sporadically come up through the decades and tell about it.

Would there be reasons for keeping it secret?

Of course: fear of a huge legal scandal, an angry Congress that has been sidelined (again), an even more distrustful population and naturally people getting frightened about the fact there being aliens etc. Also the possibility for the US and defense contractors getting a technological edge from the project if the reverse engineering is successful is a primary reason to keep it a secret even if the reverse engineering part hasn't (yet) gone anywhere.

Could the lid be kept on the program for many decades?

Yes, especially if the tech isn't easy to be reverse engineered. The conspiracy can easily be a "myth" for long. Once that reverse engineering is possible, then the lure to use the tech is obvious. The fear of the tech going into the "wrong hands" is an obvious reason not to have the scientific community openly research anything about tech that is more advanced than our existing science. Those in the know would have many reasons to keep it a secret as before.

Something like, well, in reality it could be?

Anyway, a nice summer topic to follow with popcorn. :blush:

Mearsheimer is good when he sticks to a small scale. It's his attempts at big picture theorizing that really go off the rails. I appreciate that you have to "go big" to move the ball along on theory, even if it means getting a lot wrong, but the problems in "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics'" Offensive Realism are such that I think it's worth questioning if it was worth publishing. It makes the realist camp in IR look like a caricature, and got basically every prediction about the post-Cold War era wrong. — Count Timothy von Icarus

The irony here is that the thing Mearsheimer got right (in the 1990's) was that Russia would attack Ukraine if Ukraine would give up it's nuclear deterrence. :smirk:

Mearsheimer's real weakness is that he doesn't care about domestic politics at all. He has openly acknowledged this in his talks and really goes on with the focus on his theory. Yet foreign & security policy isn't only a game between the Great Powers where all moves are made to thwart the opposing Great Power. Russia's annexation of Crimea and the war in Ukraine have a lot to do with Putin's own domestic politics and views on just what is (or should) Russia be, irrelevant of there being a NATO or not.

This may be hard for Americans to understand, as their foreign establishment (sometimes called "The Blob") is quite separated from domestic politics and can really engage the World with one focus mind: earlier to fight the Soviet Union and communism during the Cold War and later engage in a War on Terror after 9/11. In that kind of environment (where foreign policy means little to the average citizen) a Mearsheimeresque approach can be how some genuinely approach the World. Yet if the question would be if Texas should be part of the US or not, part of Mexico or should be an independent country, a lot of Americans would have an opinion on that irrelevant of what Mexico or China does.

But anyway, Mearsheimer is picked up as "an alternative" voice and likely has his niché audience in this which gives him speaking opportunities and income. In a way he then comes out as an motivational speaker, just like Peter Zeihan is for a crowd of Americans who want to hear that their country is still the best and others have even larger problems.

Considering Prigozhin seems still alive and seems to have even met with Putin in person, I find it really difficult to believe this was a genuine coup attempt.

Has it disbanded?
— ssu

It's effectively disbanded, ordered to either join the regular military, go to Belarus or go home. — boethius

If the term "coup" is too much, then use the word mutiny. Yet I'm not so convinced about the disbandment of the Wagner group as you are. Just yesterday Prigozhin met a representative from the Central African Republic in St. Petersbugh at the Russia-Africa summit. Wagner provides the regime of CAR crucial support and has I think gold mines there, which brings a lot of income to Prigozhin/Wagner.



The mutiny wasn't a fake, those aircraft were shot down and their crew did die. The mutiny happened and this was not some "4D chess" on behalf of Putin.



What happened was basically a revolt of a separate military faction that a weak central leadership could only negotiate with. Having the aspirations of taking prisoner the highest military leadership of the country and even driving to the capital makes some of us use the term "coup attempt" as this goes far beyond of simply not following orders (which itself done by a larger military group is called a mutiny). And the mutineer can now meet crucial people to him at a high level summit. It is as bad as it sounds.

Sorry, been a bit sick, so I respond only now, well later of the discussion:

I get your point. It's a valid one. Holding a different one doesn't make one uniformed, biased, nor a putin-supporter. We all want an end to this war we just have a difference of opinion as to how.

what was the likelyhood of Russia to negotiate a peace when it was still wanting to denazify Ukraine, when it was still engaged in the battle of Kyiv and war enthusiasm was very high?
— ssu

I don't know, it's not my area of expertise. Obviously people better informed than me thought it possible so that's good enough for me to consider it a reasonable option. Obviously, if possible, its the better one. — Isaac

Having the conflict and the killing halt somehow obviously would be a good thing. And it's now obvious that Russia doesn't have the ability to destroy the Ukrainian military, hence some kind of settlement between both sides has to be reached by both sides. Yet this depends on the military situation. If war is a continuation of politics by other means, then surely a political settlement of a war depends on the military situation on the ground.

And let's remember that in the first month of the war the stalemate of the current wasn't at all so obvious. The Russian southern forces (the famous "Z") had made and were making significant gains and things around Kyiv and other places didn't look yet so bad as the battle of Kyiv was still going on. And we know that the Ukrainian leadership didn't falter then and Zelenskyi didn't fly away from Ukraine. In these kind of situation it's difficult to see the reasons just why a settled peace would have been possible.

On the table, I believe, was a neutral Donbas, and, non-NATO Ukraine. Russia believes it has a right to a 'sphere of influence' in the region. — Isaac

Please give a reference to this or the source. What does neutral Donbas mean? Luhansk and Donetsk Republics in what kind of state towards Russia and Ukraine?

And do notice that both Republics are now part of Russia and Russia has annexed even more oblasts from Ukraine. I would think that anybody declaring that there was a chance for a political settlement of the war after one month of fighting in this war likely wants to shine his own image (as likely the person saying this would be linked to the negotiations).

The real possible interlocutor would be China in this case, but it doesn't feel the urge to commit everything to find a solution.

The argument was that the US somehow stopped peacetalks while the re-invasion of Ukraine was not even a month old.

- Now the war is over one year old and much has happened then. That was my point.

- And you haven’t answered that what was the likelyhood of Russia to negotiate a peace when it was still wanting to denazify Ukraine, when it was still engaged in the battle of Kyiv and war enthusiasm was very high?

- What would have been the peace deal then?

Please answer these questions and we are on the right track.

I’ve noticed, actually in other threads also, that the most frail, most weakest arguments rely on advocating the expertize of the person who is quoted and whose opinion the PF member supports. The actual points aren’t then open for discussion…because the quote is from an ”expert” and as members aren’t ”experts”, how dare they have opposing views! And if soneone else is quoted who is against this ”expert”, well, likely he or she is from the wrong camp. The personalization of the views and opinions is the distorinting problem.

This reasoning just unintentionally shows how either limited the knowledge of the person using this argument or that the person suffer of some kind of inferiority complex because the simple fact is that politics, international relations and conflicts actually aren’t some quantum physics people don’t understand. We can discuss the opinions, the viewpoints themselves quite easily.

Again and again several people have given sensible and well thought refutations on just why they disagree with your opinion and have showed the bias of people like mr Sachs. Some have put questions to you that you have not answered.

For others there’s a multitude of various people to quote or refer to, but for a few here there’s Sachs & Mearsheimer, perhaps Scott Ritter etc and not much else.

So perhaps we are not worthy.

So are you smarter or better informed than Jeffrey Sachs. Which is it? — Isaac

Ahhh!!! The deep insightful wisdom of Jeffrey Sachs, Mearsheimer & co.

We are not worthy!

Why don't they sneak in and attach bombs to the columns? Boom! — frank

Perhaps the sneaking in part isn’t so easy?

My guess is that the missiles or rockets they use simply don’t pack the punch to demolish such large structures. Yes, it would need demolition charges at precise points to get part of the bridge to splash into the water.

I've often wished math and science were taught with more of an eye to history. — Srap Tasmaner

Great point! Unfortunately in the school and even in the university science and especially math isn’t taught like this: how not only the mathematician/scientist came to the conclusion, but how the scientific community accepted the result. There simply isn’t the time. Hence you are taught the theory, the proof, the conclusions. And that’s it, then forward. Not much if anything on how it was done, what were the objections, possible earlier errors etc.

Knowing the history, the older ideas, the now ancient technology and methods used makes it all far more clear. It’s not just that you simply learn by heart to use the science/math like an algorithm to answer a certain question.

Is it a good thing that "prostitution" (under any name) is stigmatized? — BC

An interesting an multifaceted question. I think the total acceptance and normalization isn’t beneficial. Going to brothel shouldn’t be as normal as going to the gym (where you pay for doing physical exercise that you could basically do without the charge).

Obviously sex is a natural part of human relationship. However making the sex trade totally illegal will have it’s negative consequences.

It seems that a permissive society where sex isn’t confined to marriage is what really decreases prostitution. Which I think has been an improvement.

Seems that the Ukrainians attacked the Kerch bridge again.

Your right. It isn’t odd.

And if we would be discussing war that was in Afghanistan or the war still continuing in Yemen etc, suddenly we would have a lot to agree with.

Jeffrey Sachs is an economist, actually. And has written about povetry. And now is rather famous for his pro-Russian and pro-Chinese views.

And the reality is that the war has gone forward from Feb-March 2022 and so has the situation on the ground. Hence then to take the stance that early on ”the US stopped the peace negitiations” is basically pro-Russian propaganda because a lot has happened after and I just showed there’s a lot more to this question than just what discussiions mr Sachs has had. Things like Russia annexing even more land to itself from Ukraine was very important here.

And furthermore, you or Tzeentch have not answered my question on just what terms would have then Russia negotiated a peace deal when it was still engaged in the battle of Kyiv, advancing in the south and Russians were jubilantly showing the ”Z”-sign for supporting the war.

I thnk there’s a lot of good answers here of just why it is odd to cling on to these kind of fringe ideas about why the war is still going on.

The Russians and the Ukrainians were ready for peace. — Tzeentch

And on what terms were they (the Russians) negotiating with the neonazis they were meant to denazify back then?

Apart from the anti-US stance where everything revolves around the US, the reality looks a bit different:

But what really ended efforts to bring about peace – which had continued since the 24 February invasion – was the proclaimed annexation of the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Cherson. Since his election in 2019, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly called on Putin to agree to a personal meeting, even in the first weeks of this year’s Russian invasion. But on 4 October 2022, in response to the actions of the Russian side, he signed a decree rejecting direct talks. Ever since the beginning of the Russian aggression in 2014, and all the more so since 24 February 2022, the course of Ukrainian-Russian negotiations has been highly dependent on the situation in the battlefield and the broader political context.

In fact, things like the mess that the Russian army is in after the Prigozhin debacle and their inability to go on the offensive can lead to peace talks/armstice in the future.

How far should the situation in Ukraine deterioriate before we can agree the peace accords that were on the table in March / April 2022, scarcely a month into the war, should have been carried out instead of blocked by the US?

Those were blocked by the US simply to save Washington's ego. — Tzeentch

Scarcely a month into the war Russia was speaking of denazification of Ukraine and on the offensive, so your argument that it was Washington’s ego that blocked peace talks is hilarious. (Or actually, very typical to you…)

Seems like Sweden is finally getting into NATO.

All of this wouldn’t have been possible without Putin.

Lukashenko says Prigozhin is in St Petersburg.

I think this mutiny hasn’t reached it’s conclusion yet.

Apologies for the side-track. — jorndoe

It’s an interesting issue, but perhaps on another thread about US-Chinese tensions.

Hope we don’t have a thread like ”The war in Taiwan” in the future.

As one can say that the war started in 2014, it’s still quite some time to be as long as the 30-years war. But likely the high tempo of this conventional war means that this war now will be measured in years and months. Not decades.

Insurgencies and other low level conflicts can endure for centuries. Like just how long have the muslims in the Phillipines, the Moros, fought against occupiers? It has been the Spanish, the Americans, the Japanese (briefly) and now the Phillipines government who have fought against them. Hopefully now peace could prevail.

But DeSantis may actually be worse. He seems like a meaner, dumber, younger and less charismatic version of Trump — GRWelsh

In that case guess he has good chances with the hard-core Republicas, I guess.

So the Russians have mined the nuclear power plant. Luckily winds can blow to the east and northeast.

But if Putin really wants to create a wasteland…

Again something telling from Biden administration: today it was formally announced that Biden is visiting Finland. Yet it did ’t come as a surprise as days ago it was reported that the White House was inspecting the medical services in the hospitals in Helsinki.

Of course someone will argue that this is ”standard precautions” when any POTUS visits abroad, but I actually don’t think so. Didn’t happen with all earlier presidential visits. He is 80 years or so, hence there’s a real possibility that the guy will die or be totally unable to perform even the mandatory performance that a president needs to do in the next administration.

Yet the bigger question is, what on Earth is this love affair that the US voter has with very old people? What is wrong with people in their 50’s or 60’s?

If the answer is that they are the only people given, then why accept it?

A very good, detailed synopsis of what just happened:



Also goes well through what a coup is (which has been debated here) and also gives a good description of the actual combat that took place.

Seems you have no understanding of how NATO works.

Russia provided that show of force the same year NATO proclaimed its intention to incorporate Ukraine and Georgia. So I guess it's not that 'simple'. — Tzeentch

That talks before Feb 24th show this quite obviously. It wouldn’t have been Hungary, it would also have been Germany. Just as a decade earlier the Wikileaks papers told how US official saw ”a lot of work” to be done then with Germany. Well, that field of work existed prior to the full invasion also.

It is that simple.

Yes, haha, that’s the perpetual problem in pushing your borders further for ”protection” and ”safety”.

A simple show of force by Russia would have put Ukrainian aspirations to NATO into limbo. Just like the Turkey’s aspirations into EU are.

NATO isn’t the rubber stamp of US policy as you think.

And Sweden and Finland would not have joined (or tried to join) NATO if not for Feb 24th invasion.

Russia attacked Ukraine to annex territory, not to offset NATO enlargement, because it didn’t have to attack Ukraine for that not to happen. NATO enlargement is for Russia here as is spreading democracy is in US foreign interventions. A rosy reason for aggression (as if it would have been for self defense).

Again what is revealed is that a) NATO isn’t a rubber stamp for US policy, which again and again has disappointed Washington and b) a lot has happened since 2010.

After all Sweden is the other example of how NATO is an international defence pact and not simply the extension (rubber stamp) of US policy. If it’s hard for Sweden, it surely is for Ukraine.

Besides, in the next NATO summit we can observe if Sweden finally gets in and Ukraine gets the path to NATO. (When there is kind of cessation of hostilities)

Actually Putin’s weakness can change things.

Gender differences are trivial compared to the commonalities between men and women — Judaka

A good question then would be: What is left out when we dismiss both feminine and masculine traits of a human?

I think far too many human characters are defined as either masculine or feminine. Things like compassion, logical reasoning, basic feelings aren’t masculine or feminine.

According to Biden, Putin is losing in Iraq.

Clearly, there was a lack of will here, if not outright collusion with the mutineers. — SophistiCat

Surovikin was with Prigozhin in Syria and the two worked well together. Hence Surovikin is in jail. What is very likely true is that Prigozhin had at least people that understood him, which made him do his ”march” in the first place.

Then we shouldn’t forget that literally the vast majority of Russian army’s ground forces are engaged in Ukraine. For example, there are very few trioops on our border with Russia.

Putin’s purges are a natural outcome of the events. Needless to say how detrimental this whole episode is for the Russian military leadership, who should work as a team.

What is good for Ukrainians is that good generals are now out of the game and one of the most effective formations (Wagner) combat capability is now questionable.